Cool Runnings

In March, the warmest of my five Northern Hemisphere weather stations, Chhatrapati Shivaji International (Mumbai), recorded an average mean daily temperature of 27.71°C. The coldest station, Koltsovo, returned minus 1.88°C.

You may recall that I calculated a 10 Year Daily Average temperature for all ten weather stations using Weather Underground data for meteorological years 2008/9 to 2017/18. These daily figures can be readily aggregated to give weekly, monthly and seasonal averages, and finally annual results.

After some consideration, I decided that global temperature had risen by 0.85°C since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution – when mankind began emitting way more “greenhouse gases” into the air than before. It doesn’t really matter when industrial activity took off. I think I pinned it to 1709 or thereabouts. Neither is the 0.85°C figure critical. I recently heard a scientist acknowledge a rise of 1.0°C since 1880 – and he was from the school of carbon dioxide being “plant food”, playing no part whatsoever in the temperature rise. (See Jeff Masters for a different view of CO2.)

2019MARCHcf10yrWhatever, Mumbai last month recorded the greatest amount of cooling when compared to its 10 Year Average. And cold Koltsovo warmed the most. Go figure.

Now, please consider the Paris Agreement (or Accord) and add 0.85 degrees to the table figures. Quite by chance, the Northern Hemisphere is bang on the 1.5°C “red line” we should strive not to cross. And Koltsovo is beyond twice as hot as the 2°C figure that signifies the beginning of the end for humanity. It is fortunate that Koltsovo isn’t the globe.

For the following histogram, I have ordered the ten stations, hemispheres and globe so that March progresses from cool to warm when compared with the Pre-Industrial Baseline.

 

2019MARCHcfP-I

So, what has happened to Koltsovo since the beginning of this meteorological year? At the end of winter, the average daily MEAN temperature was 2.2°C above Pre-Industrial. March warmth has pushed the Koltsovo running average up to 2.75°C (2.34°C warmer than at the end of December) and nudged the Northern Hemisphere up from just 0.1°C warming since December 31st to 0.2 degrees. (Mumbai, Rome, Shanghai and Washington all conspired to bring down the North’s fever.)

Mainly thanks to a hot January in Rio, Sydney and Wellington, the Southern Hemisphere is currently at 0.32°C above Pre-Industrial and the Globe at +0.26 degrees.

There is nothing to fear. This meteorological year had a one in two chance of being warmer than the 10 Year Average. Four months in, it is warmer. By the end of November, it could well be cooler.

Anomalous warmth at the beginning of the met year in several of the 10 stations has guaranteed that both hemispheres are now showing a cooling trend. It is very small, only minus 0.01°C every two or three weeks (in the last two months or so).

There are, however, some worryingly hot spots on the planet – India (though not Mumbai) and the Arctic.

This is today’s picture of Arctic temperature anomalies from Climate Reanalyzer. Over the next ten days, the excess heat is forecast to drop from +6.8°C to +3.4°C.

April3_ArcticAnomaly_CR_grab

 

Brexit

Good luck to Ukraine if they vote in a Comedian President. The UK has over 600 jokers in Parliament, all risible and none funny. The Prime Minister of the regime and the “Leader” of the main opposition party are too daft to laugh at. I can’t say it better than Jeff Taylor and Carl Benjamin.

 

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