I noticed a few days ago that March was Earth’s second warmest on record. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground offered some figures. NOAA’s top five “warmest departures from average” since record keeping began place last month equal fifth, with January 2016, at +1.06°C. (March 2016 was top at +1.24°C.)
How do my 10 stations compare? With a range of +4.36 in Koltsovo to -1.56 in Mumbai they combined to average +0.96°C in March.
(It will be interesting to see if Mumbai suffers the terrible heat of the past few days. May is usually the hottest month in Madhya Pradesh but in Khargone on Sunday the temperature reached 47.5°C. Nine of the ten hottest places in the world on the 28th April were in India. Chauk in Myanmar was in 8th place.)
My results would appear to fit quite well with NOAA’s global assessment – but my notional rise is calculated from the beginning of the 18th century, about 170 years “before records began”. This is another indication that 0.85°C above the 10-Year baseline (meteorological years 2008/9 to 2017/18) could be on the low side.
Dr Guy McPherson is on record as stating that global temperature increased by 0.85°C from pre-industrial (no date is given) to 2009. Warming then increased considerably to the present, adding a further 0.9°C. This will be unbelievable to those, like David Icke and Donald Trump, who believe “global warming” is a hoax.
If you are able to accept, for argument’s sake, that warming has indeed increased to 1.75°C above pre-industrial globally then we can forget the Paris Agreement of 2015. We are about to blast through 2°C this year if we haven’t done so already.
Here is a table showing the figures for the last full week available from the Ten Stations (7-day average). I will stick at 0.85°C, knowing it is almost certainly the lowest reasonable estimate in assessing global temperature. I have added the variation given by a middling increase in warming (+1.1°C) and a McPherson top of the range 1.75°C.
This has been the warmest week of the Met Year so far – and the arithmetic effect on global warming is rather obvious. It will be interesting to see where April 2019 stands in NOAA’s Warmest charts. You will be able to find evidence online that the Grand Solar Minimum has already begun but, so far, it is shunning my Ten Stations.
At the end of the day, I watched The Battle Against Climate Change by Paul Kingsnorth. Recommended.