Temperature Trends

The Ten Stations conspired to push their contribution to global warming to 1.5°C above my Pre-Industrial baseline, breaking through the Paris Limit on the day of the Climate Protests.

Buenos Aires spent the first nine weeks of this meteorological year propping up the Table, moving up a place to 9th for the next fifteen weeks.

wk42_BuenosAiresCombo

A mild southern winter pushed Buenos Aires up to 6th for five weeks. It fell back to 6th three weeks ago but won’t rest there if it follows the Trend Forecast.

Buenos Aires is the station least likely to reach the indicated temperature at the end of the year. Currently, at 0.79°C above P-I, it must warm another 0.9 degrees in ten weeks to reach the target. The GFS model shows a few warmer than average days heading Argentina’s way in the next week or so, perhaps raising the temperature by one or two-tenths of a degree.

I think it is worth monitoring the trends closely though. It is too early to say if the scheme I’ve devised will work but, here goes. Using the mean daily temperatures for each station over a period of ten years I have calculated the annual range in degrees centigrade, from warmest day to coldest, divided the figure by 13 and apportioned the rise or fall to the weeks of the northern autumn and southern spring AS A PERCENTAGE. I am calculating the actual ongoing weekly change as a percentage of the 10-year range. The resulting graphs should show clearly which stations are returning temperatures higher or lower than the trendlines have indicated.

In the first three weeks of spring, Buenos Aires has already fallen behind – and so has the Southern Hemisphere. Their two graphs share a family resemblance.

In the wider world, last week saw Tropical Depression Imelda bringing greater devastation to parts of Texas than the infamous Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Several storms are currently lining up to make names for themselves, so to speak – Kiko, Mario and Lorena in the Pacific; Jerry in the Atlantic. The kids are all right.

Update 28 September

While collecting Week 43 data I realised I had made a couple of significant errors in compiling last week’s Table and the Buenos Aires/SOUTH graph. I have replaced both with revised graphics. The Table gave the Week 41 mean temperature for Durham Tees (-1.11ºC) in error and underestimated the percentage drop in Southern Hemisphere temperature in the second week of Autumn. The correct figure makes the “family resemblance” more obvious!

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