Sydney

A deep freeze in the eastern United States last week gripped Washington DC, where my station (Ronald Reagan International) plunged to 3.65°C below Pre-Industrial. Rio and Koltsovo also returned negative figures, but they were modest. Durham Tees is now the coldest station for the Year to Date (YTD) relative to P-I, of the eleven I’m monitoring, with just two weeks of the meteorological year to go.

Sydney’s cool week, at 1.07 above P-I, was probably welcomed by the inhabitants but I think blustery winds continued to make bushfire fighting difficult.

Five of my stations posted figures more than two degrees above P-I in Week 50. Mumbai and Shanghai’s contributions were cancelled out by Washington – the northern hemisphere was just 0.14°C above P-I. The south, with the unexpected assistance of Cape Town (2.92 degrees above P-I), finished the week “breaking Paris”, at 1.74 above.

Week50_wkplusYTDinsets

Sydney is not following the trend indicated at the end of August. Spring there will end up being warmer than expected. The southern hemisphere though, represented by the five stations, has yet to reach its forecast warming state. The YTD running average is, however, 1.33°C above P-I, almost half a degree warmer than the Ten-Year baseline (Met Years 2008/9 to 2017/18).

Wk50_SydneySouthTREND

The Mean Daily temperature running average for the Ten Stations is  1.2°C above P-I. I’ve mentioned a few times that my calculation of a Pre-Industrial baseline is “conservative” – on the low side. And I don’t make any attempts to figure the future. Robin at Seemorerocks has re-posted a graph by Sam Carana at Arctic News, showing a rise in global air temperature at land and ocean surface level of 1.85°C since 1750. It shows two degrees being reached by the end of 2020, and a barely survivable four degrees being passed in 2023. Three more years and there may be no hearts at all beating on this planet. This puts getting fed up about Brexit into perspective. (The first anniversary of the Yellow Vest Protests this weekend?)

20191117TempRise_SamCarana

2020 El Nino Could Start 18 Degree Temperature Rise Arctic News

 

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