A few days ago a Google algorithm decided I would be interested in a YouTube video that makes a mockery of my Ten Weather Stations project.
The IPCC’s “Pre-Industrial” is a late starter because of the dearth of 19th-century temperature data. Records didn’t really “begin” until around 1880. The IPCC has therefore chosen a baseline period of 1850 to 1900, giving 14 decades since the mid-point (roughly) and 2017. In that time the global mean land temperature is reckoned to have risen by one-degree centigrade. This is a straight line rise of 0.07°C per decade.
NOAA’s own temperature figures for the five years 2015 to 2019 reveal that the global temperature has DECREASED by -0.14°C per decade, a COOLING RATE about three times greater than the previous warming.
The Southern Hemisphere temperature has DECREASED by -0.7 degrees.
The Northern Hemisphere temperature has DECREASED by -0.2 degrees.
Compared to the previous Warming Rate:-
South America has COOLED 8 times faster than the warming rate, the Caribbean Islands 10 times, and North America 28 times.
Watch the video for graphs with trendlines for these and other areas of the globe. Oh, virus stricken “Asia”, pumping out all that blanket making carbon dioxide, is cooling at four tines the previous rate of warming.
“Not wishing to be accused of cherry-picking”, the makers of the video chose the most recent five years to assess temperature changes, “selecting the same range as that selected by NASA”. They used the same method and tool used by NOAA.
I don’t have any objection to any of this but would just point out that if 2015 and 2016 are the warmest years of the five it will be downhill all the way thereafter for the trendlines.
That aside, I seem to have chosen 10 anomalous Weather Stations. After ten weeks of this meteorological year, all five northern hemisphere stations are running temperatures of 2 degrees centigrade above Pre-Industrial or higher. Last year there was just one. After ten weeks last year, three southern hemisphere stations were more than 2 degrees above P-I; this year there are none.
The stations combine to give a global running average of 2.13°C above P-I, which is a Warming Rate 49 times greater than the IPCC projected temperature rise to the end of 2020.
There is an important difference in how I calculate my warming/cooling rates compared to the video makers. The IPCC Paris Accord Projection to 1.5°C in 2040 posits an annual rise from 2017 of 0.217°C per decade, not the 0.07 degrees of the previous fourteen decades. If I used the older/lower figure my rate of global WARMING this year-to-date would be 152 times greater, not 49.
Here is Week 10’s Table of Mean Temperatures above P-I (running averages).
Update 12 February
The Difference Five Years Make?
Not much at my Ten Stations.
Unlike the wider regions referenced in the YouTube video, five stations showed warming trends in both the 10 and 5-meteorological year runs (2010 to 1019 and 2015 to 2019).
Only one station, Mumbai, cooled over the ten years – but warmed over the last five.
Two stations, Rome and Koltsovo, clearly cooled over five years and warmed over ten, the only stations where the extra five years made a clear difference.
Shanghai and Cape Town clearly warmed over ten years but their five-year trendlines appear flat. Siding with the underdog, I colour them blue.