I hope to get back to some genealogy soon but most days now I wonder, what’s the point? This new disease threatens to take the lives of millions, break down the social order in many countries, collapse the world economy and start a global war. The psychopaths that rule us should have been more careful about what they wished for.
Adjusting my Andology Prediction spreadsheet to fit the official Chinese government infection and death figures makes no sense. “Real-world” numbers are probably at least ten times higher. One source suggests 50,000 may have succumbed to the disease already. At the 8th of February I have 216,000 infected and 37,000 dead. An Infection Rate (R0) of 4.00 and Mortality Rate of 15% will see Covid-19 burn out in the first week of April after infecting a billion Chinese and killing 277 million. What price communism, civilized society and the economy surviving this?
My UK spreadsheet predicts 10 infections in three days time – and one death. So far, nobody has died. The disease will infect 84% of the population and claim lives until the middle of July, killing almost ten million in total. Given that there have been just eight people infected so far, these stats are unbelievable.
Passengers on the Plague Ship in Hong Kong have been freed but those in Yokohama are still quarantined. Only those on Diamond Princess testing positive for the virus have been taken ashore. None of those infected has died so far but there are now 135 of them. Yesterday my spreadsheet had 75 infected and three deaths. If the passengers and crew remain on the ship, 95% may become infected and 400 could lose their lives. Their ordeal is predicted to end in the middle of March.
The only value of this prediction tool is to give an idea of how bad things might become. To gain an understanding of how things are, I suggest a daily dose of Doctor John’s evidence-based elixir.