From a Distance

I jumped the gun with Yesterday’s Image. For several mornings the sky above the Bay had been wonderfully clean and free of scratches. This morning at 7.14 –

20200322PolarAirCargo

A Polar Air Cargo Boeing 747-45E(F), GT18521, heading from Frankfurt to Chicago. Playback on Flightradar 24 showed there was not much else up there.

Social Distance

Weatherwise, it has been a lovely weekend here and Brits have flocked to the nation’s beauty spots to have “we want to catch Coronavirus” picnics. Give it a week and happy wanderers may need to explain themselves to the police, or to one of the 20,000 or so military mustered to instil social discipline. Freedom to roam will soon be taken away from us if we don’t take the virus seriously.

How serious is Covid-19? Opinions differ wildly. It doesn’t help that the figures for infections and deaths from the disease cannot be trusted. But even discredited stats can produce charts, graphs and histograms that just might trigger a lightbulb moment.

Deaths from Covid-19 are under-reported in many countries – many being “hidden” behind the various comorbidities that afflicted the deceased or simply marked down to the winter ‘flu in the northern hemisphere.

Statistical models from various sources seem to be pointing to deaths in the millions globally. The virus prediction tool from Andology, primed with an “Rnought” of 2.5 and a mortality rate of 2% generates a UK death toll of about 600,000 by the end of June. I have summarily cut this down to 25,000 for this country and the other nine in the current Top Ten of most lethal nations. The histogram below shows how far along the road to 100 per cent of 25,000 deaths these nations are.

21Mar_TopTenDeaths

Italy will blow through 25,000 two or three weeks from now, and the UK around the middle of May. I’ll raise the “estimate” whenever necessary and keep an eye open for other countries breaking into the Top Ten. (Source: Worldometers.)

In the meantime, keep your distance.

 

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