Dubious Figures

The predicted Covid death toll in the UK rose as high as 500,000 and fell back to 20,000. The current guess is 40,000. Today Worldometers gives the UK’s total of deaths linked to the SARS-Cov-2 virus as 15,464, trailing Spain, Italy and France but expected to surpass them before Season One is over.

Infections from the virus are seriously under-recorded in the UK – and probably most other countries too. Even nations doing a lot of testing are using methods that are not wholly reliable.

I am “following” a few countries. This chart shows how few citizens have so far been infected. (The countries are ordered by population size.)

PercentInfected_APR

Given the asymptomatic nature of the disease and a “mildness” that doesn’t require hospital treatment, it has been surmised that some countries may be close to achieving herd immunity.

The Case Fatality Rates resulting from these unsatisfactory figures are very high for most countries. (The WHO is suggesting a mortality rate of 3 to 4 per cent.) Raising the number of cases by two orders of magnitude (x100) brings the CFR down to seasonal flu levels for some countries. When the final figures are calculated, millions of people may realise they lost their livelihoods, homes, families, liberty and numerous opportunities to pursue happiness for a paper tiger.

CurrentCFR_APR

Worldometer gives up to date Deaths per Million figures for every country with infections. My numbers are different because I’m compiling weekly tables – so I could be up to six days behind.

DeathsPerMillion_APR

Abstract 51 · Reighton Sands

18_20190418Rope1_7m

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s