Dubious Figures

The predicted Covid death toll in the UK rose as high as 500,000 and fell back to 20,000. The current guess is 40,000. Today Worldometers gives the UK’s total of deaths linked to the SARS-Cov-2 virus as 15,464, trailing Spain, Italy and France but expected to surpass them before Season One is over.

Infections from the virus are seriously under-recorded in the UK – and probably most other countries too. Even nations doing a lot of testing are using methods that are not wholly reliable.

I am “following” a few countries. This chart shows how few citizens have so far been infected. (The countries are ordered by population size.)


Given the asymptomatic nature of the disease and a “mildness” that doesn’t require hospital treatment, it has been surmised that some countries may be close to achieving herd immunity.

The Case Fatality Rates resulting from these unsatisfactory figures are very high for most countries. (The WHO is suggesting a mortality rate of 3 to 4 per cent.) Raising the number of cases by two orders of magnitude (x100) brings the CFR down to seasonal flu levels for some countries. When the final figures are calculated, millions of people may realise they lost their livelihoods, homes, families, liberty and numerous opportunities to pursue happiness for a paper tiger.


Worldometer gives up to date Deaths per Million figures for every country with infections. My numbers are different because I’m compiling weekly tables – so I could be up to six days behind.


Abstract 51 · Reighton Sands


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