Northern Spring, Southern Autumn

Obviously the world has more to worry about than temperature but here are some graphs for the second quarter of the meteorological year.

I mentioned a while back that the northern hemisphere was running much warmer this year than last in terms of mean temperature averages at the ten stations I monitor.

On the first day of Spring this year, the five northern stations were 2.51°C (4.5°F) warmer than in 2019. The season then cooled (relatively), ending 1.69°C (3.04°F) warmer, a drop of  0.82°C (1.48°F).

The temperature difference in the southern Autumn was more stable, declining only 0.1°C (0.18°F) over 92 days. But look how much cooler it has been this year at my five stations ‘down under’.

The ten station warming by 0.4°C (0.7°F) may seem unworthy of a fuss being made, but bear in mind the IPCC doesn’t expect this amount of extra heat until about 2037.

The difference in relative temperature this year looks a bit different if compared to a Pre-Industrial Baseline.

My 10 station “Globe” has already blasted through the Paris Accord and if the Southern Five had stayed as warm as last year the dreaded Two Degrees C would have been exceeded too.

My custom-made baseline was calculated for each station as an average mean daily temperature over a period of ten years (Meteorological Years 2008/9 to 2017/18) and an assumed rise of 0.85°C since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. In the Table below you will see that last years figures have been adjusted. The IPCC based its Paris Accord “target” of 1.5 degrees above P-I on temperatures having risen one degree centigrade by 2017. To fall in line, I have made the necessary 0.15 degree adjustment.

For much of last year Koltsovo and Rio de Janeiro vied for top spot in a “league table” like this. Now Rio is the only one of my ten stations that is colder than it may have been in 1750.

Rio’s average mean temperature last Autumn was 26.8°C (80.2°F); this Autumn 23.9°C (75°F). I have had a quick search online and cannot find any news outlet complaining of cold down there. The Arctic continues to be a cause for concern. Q3 has started out relatively chilly over much of the world but forecasts of more “heat events” in far northern latitudes are not what we need in these troubled times.

Clouds 42 · Hunmanby Gap

Hunmanby Sands

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