Distractions

Moving house is supposed to be one of the most stressful life events but I think the world turning upside down, inside out and back to front is the main reason I can’t get back into the old routine. I spend too many hours a day trying to understand what is going on around me.

I noticed this on Church Walk yesterday.

That’s Covid dealt with.

Now for the Climate Emergency. There seems to be agreement that 2011 to 2020 was the warmest decade in the “persistent long-term climate change trend”, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 the three warmest years.

We are almost half-way through the first quarter of the 2021 meteorological year and, if my Ten Stations are to be considered representative of the globe, change is in the air.

I am tracking the running average daily mean temperatures and comparing this year’s figures with the average for the four years 2018 to 2021.

At the end of Week 6 only four stations are warmer than the 4 year average. The 5-station hemispheres and 10-station globe are cooler this year-to-date. Of course, this could change for the warmer over the next 46 weeks. (I have thrown “local” station Durham Tees in for good measure.)

Note the stand-out cold place is currently Koltsovo but the Yekaterinburg district has experienced mean temperatures six degrees centigrade above pre-industrial recently, so when it comes to “warming rates” (averaged over the last four years) it still leads the pack.

An IPCC unit is the amount the mean temperature must rise each year to reach the Climate Change Panel’s projection of 1.5°C above pre-industrial by 2040. That my five southern stations are now contributing to a global cooling is interesting. Maybe there is no need for a Great Reset to address the Climate Crisis.

At the end of Week 6 this year, the 10-station global mean temperature is 0.09°C cooler than the IPCC’s projection made in 2017. This has now reached 1.0677°C above P-I, though Bloomberg suggests Earth burned through the 1.2 degree mark last year.

Abstract 64 · Glen Gardens

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