Way to Go?

Fifty-four weeks have elapsed since the first death from Covid-19 was recorded in the UK. Since 5 March 2020 a further 125,689 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for the disease. Positivity determined by the base metal standard PCR test is meaningless, making any chart or graph fabricated from Covid data suspect. But, heigh-ho…

The Covid Death figures are taken from Worldometer. The UK Office of National Statistics have offered a provisional figure of 604,045 deaths from all causes for 2020. This is 23,927 fewer than the estimate on which I based some of my Covid charts last year. I divided that larger total into equal daily amounts. I have now taken the weekly ONS figures for deaths by influenza (including Covid) and pneumonia and and applied their “proportions” to the AllCauses to reflect seasonality somwhat.

The chart above shows the UK’s double hump Second Wave lasting twice as long as the First – from around Day 280 last year to Day 76 this year (yesterday).

The curve of the Second Wave may or may not be about to flatten. Whatever, it is going to begin mixing its green colour with last year’s yellow by the weekend.

It is anyone’s guess what this chart will look like in 180 days time.

Warmer weather is coming, so instances of respiratory illness are going to look like Days 220 to 250 last year.

And we now have “the vaccines”. Will these make Covid-19 deaths a thing of the past? All easily accessed reports from the Greatest Vaccinated Nation on Earth point to a rosy future. But “flat-lining” can have two very different meanings when applied to graphs and diseased human beings in hospitals.

There are always more than two sides to a story.

Abstract 72 · A Line in the Sand

Filey Sands

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