In advance of COP 26, beginning at the end of the month, I thought I’d catch up with my Ten Weather Stations.
At the end of Week 46, the Ten are running 0.32°C cooler than last year. Five stations are a bit warmer, but Koltsovo’s eye watering 2.39°C drop, lowers the Northern 5 average by 0.58 degrees.
But Koltsovo was over 4°C above Pre-Industrial at this time last year and is currently the third warmest of the Ten Stations (1.7°C above P-I).
The IPCC’s “Paris Target” of keeping global average temperature below 1.5°C in 2040 seems at risk, but there is some encouragement with five stations currently cooler than the global estimate of 1°C at the end of 2017.
If the mean global temperature rises by 0.02174°C (one “IPCC unit”) each year from 2017, the Paris Target will be reached in 2040.
Ten Weather Stations represent a small proportion of the globe. For them to be warming 9 times more than the IPCC projection is probably nothing to worry about. The COPpers in Glasgow may have other ideas.