Third Wave

Covid case numbers are rising in Europe and Brits are being primed to expect a surge of infections here too, though maybe not for five or six months. Case numbers should not be confused with infections, and deaths from the disease in France, Germany and the UK have fallen since January. France looks the most likely of the three to be inundated first by a Third Wave of Covid-19 – or perhaps a First Wave of the Billy Goats-promised “next pandemic”.

Death totals are taken from Worldometer and Expected Deaths are Annual Totals derived from World Bank 2018 figures evenly distributed. I will look for more accurate First Quarter data and perhaps offer a more trustworthy graph later. Not that there is anything reliable about published Covid-19 data anyway. If you want to do your own Italian Job on this graph, divide the  vertical axis figures by eight to get a more accurate picture. (Roughly 90 per cent of the UK bars above are arguably “Lockdown Deaths”. So, in Week 3, about 1,000 people were killed by Sars-CoV-2 and 7,500 by regime policies.)

Sea 35 · Filey Brigg Dawn

Not Breaking a Record

Yesterday was the warmest March day in the UK for 53 years, falling 1.1°C short of the record high of 25.6°C measured at Mepal, Cambridgeshire in 1968.

The current meteorological year is, however, running noticeably cooler than last year in the north-east of England.

In marked contrast, 2020 was warmer than 2019 throughout the year.

At the end of Week 17 this meteorological year, the Mean Temperature was running 0.87°C cooler than 2020. At the same point last year, the running Mean Temperature was 0.59°C higher than in 2019.

I am in the process of refining my calculations of Mean Temperature above Pre-Industrial. Durham Tees at Week 17 in 2019 was 1.75°C above Pre-Industrial; in 2020 it was 2.36 degrees above P-I and this year it is 1.51 degrees above. If you take into consideration that warming must proceed at a rate of 0.02174°C each year to reach the IPCC’s “Paris Limit” of 1.5 degrees above P-I in 2040, these calculations are consistent with the comparison figures in the previous paragraph.

Townscape 70 · Queen Street Steps

The Old Coastguard House

Breaking Waves

The UK regime persists in paying the BBC to report daily numbers of new cases of Covid-19 disease and deaths of people “within 28 days of a positive PCR test”.

This observation was made on the gov.uk website some time ago:-

6…fragments of inactive virus can be persistently detected by PCR in respiratory tract samples following infection – long after a person has completed their isolation period and is no longer infectious.

It is no surprise that the Italian government, after reviewing its Covid-19 mortality data, decided that only 12% of reported deaths to date could be atrributed to the Sars-CoV-2 virus.

Deaths in 2021 from or with Covid-19 are routinely added to last years tally but I preferred starting over on January 1st this year, when we were twenty weeks into the “Second Wave”.

After 12 weeks of this year, the Second Wave is almost over. I have used the figures reported on Worldometer for this chart:-

The first deaths attributed to Covid-19 in the UK occurred in Week 10 last year and make too small an impact to register here (0.01% of Expected Deaths from All Causes). If we apply the Italian 12% apportionment to the UK figures, Week Four’s 46.57% (2021) is reduced to 5.59%. An argument can be made that the other 88% should be considered as “Lockdown Deaths”. The next 12 weeks are going to be interesting.

In an article published on the UK Column website a couple of days ago, Iain Davis explains why we must question the Covid 19 mortality statistics.

Wave 44 · Filey Bay

Brief Wives

For hundreds of years, women who married inshore fishermen woke each day wondering if they would be a widow by nightfall.

Charles Dickens wrote about one Filey woman who lost her husband to the sea and searched for his body for three months (see A Loving Wife).

Available sources indicate that Elizabeth SPYVEE was 51 years-old when she married Richard RICHARDSON, so the suggestion that they had a child in their four years and eight months together has to be queried.

Born in 1816, Mary ROBINSON may have known Elizabeth, or at least have heard her story. Mary married Richard Anderson CAMMISH in September 1843 when she was 26 years old. Her headstone in St Oswald’s churchyard tells us that he left home one June morning and didn’t return.

Sacred to the memory of MARY CAMMISH, who died on 28th Nov 1882, in the 66th year of her age. She was for 35 years bathing attendant at Filey.

Her husband RICHARD ANDERSON CAMMISH, to whom she was married only 9 months, was drowned at sea and his body never recovered.

This stone was erected by the subscriptions of visitors and residents of Filey as a mark of respect for one who was in every way worthy of it.

In this instance, “written in stone” doesn’t mean that all facts presented are true. The marriage ended after just 155 days.

Richard was skipper of Jerome, a two-masted lugger built in Scarborough by Thomas SMITH in 1838 and purchased in July that year by Jerome VASSALI, a jeweller. An account of the sudden storm can be found at the Scarborough Maritime History website. (Scroll down to the seventh paragraph.)

The two recovered bodies were taken to Filey and buried at St Oswald’s on the 27th. John COWLING junior and Thomas WISEMAN have footholds on the FamilySearch Shared Tree but neither has a memorial in the churchyard.

Widow Mary chose not to marry again and appears to have been self-reliant. I doubt bathing attendants were well-paid but maybe the Vassali family helped out. Roman Catholic immigrants from Switzerland, they appear to have established branches in several Yorkshire towns. Their families are not easy to assemble. A Jerome Vassali aged 38 is a jeweller and master jet manufacturer employing 12 men in Scarborough in 1861 but I haven’t been able to establish who his parents are yet. If he is the son of shipowner Jerome his mother was born Jane ANDERSON and may therefore be related by blood to Richard Anderson Cammish. Captain Syd’s database indicates that Richard’s predecessor as skipper of Jerome was John FELL. A fisherman with that name married Richard’s sister Mary in 1830 and died in 1841 aged 33. Perhaps the respect afforded his widow derived more from a connection to the relatively wealthy “foreigners” than from her service as a bathing attendant.

Beach 131 · Reighton Sands

Scoured out