The Hottest January?

There are two schools of thought. The Earth’s land and oceans have been warming for the last twenty years. Er, no, they have been cooling.

Our world can’t do both at the same time surely, so who is right? (Obviously, both sides agree that the climate is changing.)

A few days ago, NOAA declared that January 2020 was the hottest on record, globally. It beat 2016 by 0.02°C, a ridiculously tiny amount compared to the margin of error of the calculation. But wait…

The four warmest Januaries documented in the climate record have occurred since 2016; the 10 warmest have all occurred since 2002.

NOAA

I have been a “warmist” for as long as I can remember, a position reinforced by the Ten Weather Stations I’ve been monitoring. I spent a few hours on Sunday extending the series back to 2001and calculated the difference between the January Mean and the Ten Year Average for each station. The resulting hemisphere/globe charts look like this.

January_NORTH_0120

January_SOUTH_0120

January_GLOBE_0120

It is clear that 2020 wasn’t the warmest January at one northern station. Koltsovo was the anomaly and I had to check the data at Weather Underground. Seventeen days were over 20 degrees Fahrenheit and three above freezing. Phew! Unprecedented?

The trendlines show warming in the 21st century but this does not mean that the “Coolists” are wrong in their assertions. Ten stations is a pitifully small sample. I may, by chance, have picked on those returning unusually high mean temperatures.

As a control (of sorts), I looked at Durham Tees, going back as far as the data were available in an uninterrupted sequence.

DurhamTeesJANUARY9720

I was surprised to see northern England experienced Koltsovo-like relative warmth in 2007, with 2020 coming a dismal 4th and 2016 5th (of 24 years). But the trendline is almost flat, so it is not difficult to imagine that hundreds of stations could easily dip the other way.

(Januarys/Januaries.)

I wonder what the Hemisphere and Globe charts would look like if the data from every station available on Weather Underground were to be interrogated and averaged.

The elephant (or polar bear) in the room is the accusation from the Cool folk that NOAA doctors the raw temperature data to suit a global warming narrative. Mallen Baker answers the charge.

Gotcha

The Harriet DOVE I found yesterday, a domestic servant at age 13 in 1851, was not the daughter of “Snaith George”. The muddled, mistaken family was at that time about 3,000 miles away in Brant County, Ontario. No wonder I had failed to find them in the England & Wales census.

Small elements of doubt. I unearthed the christening records for the children this morning and all the entries in the Hook Chapelry book gave George’s occupation as “Innkeeper”. This doesn’t solve yesterday’s mystery scrawl. And George told the Canadian enumerator he was a Mason by trade (and a Methodist by religion). I then happened upon a source from a much later date that said the family arrived in Canada in 1840. so what are the chances of these migrants being mistaken Doves all over again?

In 1841, in Snaith, the family comprised:-

George, 35

Rachel, 35

Ann, 9

Sarah, 7

Emma, 5

Harriot, 3

George, 1

The birth and christening records show variant children’s names – Ann Elizabeth, Harriet and George Wesley.

Compare the list with the 1851 Canada census:-

1851_DOVEgeo_Canada

Not a slam dunk, but close. (In 1841 England, enumerators were instructed to give adult ages to the nearest five years.) I can’t explain Sarah’s absence. It is possible she was left behind in the home country but it’s perhaps more likely that she died in Canada before 1851.

On a happier note, I found a record of Harriet’s marriage to Benjamin F. CHEESBRO, son of Joseph and Jane, in Norfolk, Ontario on 11 September 1858. But nothing else.

There is still the muddle on the Shared Tree to sort out. I am receiving help from another contributor, so with luck and a following wind…