Lies and Statistics

It is a while since I updated the running average temperatures of my Ten Weather Stations. There have been countless extreme weather events recently. The usual suspects of heat, fire, flood and ice melt joined by the occasional surprise package, like summer snowfalls in China. But none have done much to alter the trends in my token scraps of the planet.

The five representatives of the northern hemisphere have continued to cool. The southern five have been much cooler this meteorological year than last, but over the last ten weeks their temperatures have started to rise, and may continue to do so until November.

I have simplified the graphs by not naming the 5 stations but in order of warmth in Week 27 (with mean temperatures in degrees Centigrade above the Pre-Industrial baseline) they are Koltsovo (5.52), Shanghai (2.87), Rome (2.40), Mumbai (2.16) and Washington DC (1.39). They combine to trend steadily downwards but are still well above the IPCC’s 2040 Paris Accord projected target.

Wellington is warmest of the southern 5 (1.11), followed by Buenos Aires (0.97), Sydney (0.82), Cape Town (0.3) and Rio de Janeiro (-0.18). Together they are over 0.2°C cooler than the global average in 2017, as determined by the IPCC.

I don’t know why the running average temperature is so different in the two hemispheres this year – and have not seen any explanations online while checking if climate change is still a hoax or not. My Ten Station Globe’s recent experience looks like this:-

The Ten Stations are currently warming at a rate 25 times greater than hoped for by the IPCC. (At the end of this year the temperature above Pre-Industrial is projected to be 1.06°C. Adding 25 “IPCC units” to this gives the 1.61 degrees indicated in the graph above. One unit is the projected annual global average rise of 0.0217°C.)

That Other Hoax

The “inventor” of the PCR Test says it should not be used to detect COVID 19 in the human animal (or paw paw or goat). It seems to be widely accepted that 80% of the pointless tests give “false positives”. So the four members of the family in New Zealand that have triggered the lockdown of Auckland may not have the infamous disease at all. Across the Tasman, Kim Jong Dan is doing terrible things to the population of Victoria. Police have been videoed strangling a young woman and body-slamming her to the payment – for not wearing a face covering.

So, two of the countries least affected by the novel flu are rapidly turning into the most tyrannical. New Zealand is on course to be under martial law by the beginning of October.

Yesterday I chose ten countries to “follow”, just to see if the next lockdown of the UK could be justified by “the figures”. What figures? Number of cases cannot be trusted. Number of COVID 19 deaths reported cannot be trusted. (How many people who haven’t had a test have been sent letters informing them that they are Covid positive?) In truth, there are no reliable data for the disease anywhere.

Although they may have been inflated in various underhand ways, I am running with the reported COVID deaths. Worldometers calculate deaths per million population for every country. It is easy to spot the countries that have been “hit hard”.

I thought I’d calculate the chances of dying from (or with) COVID 19 by simply dividing the number of deaths by the country’s population. Yesterday my Number One country, against which the other nine would be measured, was Australia. Hearing about about the poor Kiwis facing outright tyranny this morning made me add New Zealand to the list. I’m not quite organized yet so the Table below should be treated with caution. It seems to be heading in the right direction – in that the chance of dying from (with) COVID in rank order is the same as Worldometers Deaths per Million list. (The two sets of figures have a family resemblance.)

Note: Not all the populations are the latest “live” figures. The Worldometer “perMil” figures were accessed early this afternoon. I hope to take the temperature of the 11 countries at a set hour each day but the immediate takeaway is that I am at least 150 times more likely to die of/with COVID in the UK than the average New Zealander. Of course, being over 70 I have the regime’s cross-hairs on my heart or forehead. Curious how a country where the chances are 0.0005% of being killed by/with COVID can become the most fascistic nation on earth  in a heartbeat.

UK Column News features lies and statistics today. Support Billy TK.

Beach 112 · Muston Sands

Still Getting Warmer

In the first two months of this meteorological year at my ten chosen weather stations, there were six instances of cooler temperatures and 14 warmer.

The five Northern Hemisphere Stations were, overall, 1.01°C warmer than the Ten Year Average (2008/9 to 20017/18).

The five Southern Hemisphere Stations were 1.18°C warmer.

“The literature” about present temperatures suggests varying amounts of global warmth above a notional Pre-Industrial Baseline. Initially, I was going to go for a low estimate (0.6°C) but decided on the middling 0.85°C instead.  NASA is currently suggesting the world has warmed 0.9°C since 1880 so I am being conservative.

So, I have set my Pre-industrial Baseline at 0.85°C above the TenYear Average. The figure is calculated daily for graphing purposes. I have added 1.5°C to give the Paris Accord limit we should attempt to stay below if we are to avoid even more extreme weather events than those recently experienced.

At the 10 Weather Stations in the last two months, the Average Daily Temperatures are 0.25°C above the 10 Year running average figure, leaving us just 0.4°C “to play with” before the Paris Accord limit is passed.

There is no way of telling how representative my chosen Weather Stations are, among the thousands reporting to Weather Underground. It doesn’t seem to matter though. Over the next year or two, the trend to either “runaway greenhouse” or Grand Solar Minimum chill must, surely, become apparent.

Right now the record cold temperatures in the US Midwest are causing a stir. The extreme warming that is forecast to soon follow there will keep tongues wagging. In the southern hemisphere, Australia’s heatwaves are crossing the Tasman and washing over New Zealand.

The warmest of my 10 Stations was Koltsovo, last month, registering 3.65°C above Pre-Industrial. If the Siberian experience is replicated everywhere for a whole year we are all toast.

NorthHemDecJan

SouthernHemDecJan

GlobalDecJan