Shanghai

Five of the ten weather stations were over 2ºC warmer than my Pre-Industrial Baseline last week. Shanghai’s 2.84 degrees was, however, no match for Cape Town and they swapped places in the “League Table”. Shanghai fell to 7th.

41_FullTable

The three particularly warm northern stations pushed the hemisphere into the “orange zone” for Week 41, a marked change after last week’s chill. A couple of weeks ago I mentioned the cold spring expected in New Zealand. Across the Tasman, Australia has been promised higher than normal temperatures for the season. Last week, Sydney and Wellington vied for chilliness, with the New Zealand capital winning by a smidgen.

wk41_ShanghaiCombo

Our week in north-east England has been the polar-opposite to Shanghai – but it is all relative. The clear warming trend in Durham Tees from Wednesday to Fri continued and gave us a pleasant, sunny weekend.

The Bahamas expected more misery from tropical storm Humberto but has been reprieved. Humberto may strengthen to hurricane status, but a sharp turn northeast is predicted to take it away from the United States.

Winter in New South Wales and Queensland has been described as “disastrous”, but Australians are being prepared by their media for possible “apocalyptic weather” if what is happening in the Antarctic migrates northwards. The Arctic continues to edge towards its state change.

Sydney Bucks the Trend

40_FullTable

Sydney’s warm week raised its Mean Daily Temperature running average – only by 0.3ºC but nonetheless confounding the 9-month trendline.

wk40_SydneyCombo

Northern England turned chilly, though not as much as Koltsovo, Shanghai and Buenos Aires. Without Sydney’s contribution of warmth, the southern hemisphere would have equalled the north’s cooling. The globe, as represented by the Ten Stations, saw its running average drop 0.3ºC in Week 40. If Sydney returns to its cooling trend and falls to a yearly average of 1.19º above (my) Pre-Industrial baseline at the end of November, that will still represent a 0.34ºC rise above the Ten Year (2009 to 2018) average.

Dorian

The monster hurricane caused terrible devastation in the Bahamas and, if Puerto Rico’s experience is anything to go by, the people in the worst affected islands will wait a long time for the assistance they need to rebuild communities.

Questions are being asked about the odd behaviour of the storm. Georgia and the Carolinas received a battering – but it could have been worse. And maybe it need not have been as bad as it was for Bahamians.

Dorian is over the Gulf of St Lawrence as I write, and the west coast of Ireland and the Scottish Isles may feel his breath on Tuesday when computer models are showing the storm centre tracking over Iceland.