Temperature Trends

The Ten Stations conspired to push their contribution to global warming to 1.5°C above my Pre-Industrial baseline, breaking through the Paris Limit on the day of the Climate Protests.

Buenos Aires spent the first nine weeks of this meteorological year propping up the Table, moving up a place to 9th for the next fifteen weeks.

wk42_BuenosAiresCombo

A mild southern winter pushed Buenos Aires up to 6th for five weeks. It fell back to 6th three weeks ago but won’t rest there if it follows the Trend Forecast.

Buenos Aires is the station least likely to reach the indicated temperature at the end of the year. Currently, at 0.79°C above P-I, it must warm another 0.9 degrees in ten weeks to reach the target. The GFS model shows a few warmer than average days heading Argentina’s way in the next week or so, perhaps raising the temperature by one or two-tenths of a degree.

I think it is worth monitoring the trends closely though. It is too early to say if the scheme I’ve devised will work but, here goes. Using the mean daily temperatures for each station over a period of ten years I have calculated the annual range in degrees centigrade, from warmest day to coldest, divided the figure by 13 and apportioned the rise or fall to the weeks of the northern autumn and southern spring AS A PERCENTAGE. I am calculating the actual ongoing weekly change as a percentage of the 10-year range. The resulting graphs should show clearly which stations are returning temperatures higher or lower than the trendlines have indicated.

In the first three weeks of spring, Buenos Aires has already fallen behind – and so has the Southern Hemisphere. Their two graphs share a family resemblance.

In the wider world, last week saw Tropical Depression Imelda bringing greater devastation to parts of Texas than the infamous Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Several storms are currently lining up to make names for themselves, so to speak – Kiko, Mario and Lorena in the Pacific; Jerry in the Atlantic. The kids are all right.

Update 28 September

While collecting Week 43 data I realised I had made a couple of significant errors in compiling last week’s Table and the Buenos Aires/SOUTH graph. I have replaced both with revised graphics. The Table gave the Week 41 mean temperature for Durham Tees (-1.11ºC) in error and underestimated the percentage drop in Southern Hemisphere temperature in the second week of Autumn. The correct figure makes the “family resemblance” more obvious!

Anthropogenic Temperature Change

On my second visit to Weather Underground last month I found that the Mean Temperatures of my Ten Stations were now being delivered to one decimal place (in degrees Fahrenheit). Maximum and minimum daily temperatures were still presented in whole degrees. I was happy with this change but dismayed on the next visit to find the more accurate mean temperatures rounded again to whole degrees.

Not that it matters much. Converting the Fahrenheit data offers the opportunity to present the Centigrade temperatures to two decimal places. This semblance of greater accuracy makes me feel better but nobody should be fooled.

Halfway through this meteorological year and it is still not clear that there is a long term trend to the greater warming of “Climate Change” or the cooling brought on by the promised Grand Solar Minimum.

Here are two Tables for Week 26, with Durham Tees figures added, replacing the no longer available Whitby/Filey data.

26_Table1

After several decidedly cool weeks, warmth returned to North East England – and five of the Ten Stations were more than 2 above Pre-Industrial. Rome hasn’t yet shaken off its cold.

26_Table2

The second Table shows the Year to Date running average of daily Mean temperatures, with the stations ranged from warm to cool. Koltsovo has lost its top spot to Rio de Janeiro but there’s not much between them. Sydney and Wellington are also running neck and neck. These four stations are the only ones likely to change ranking positions over the next six months.

If you recall, my Pre-Industrial Baseline is 0.85 below the average of 10 years of Mean temperatures (calculated daily for each station). The “cf10yr” column saves you having to do the mental arithmetic. The “above P-I” figures are companions to the Global Warming narrative – “we must not go above two degrees C”. The “10yr” figures show how much warmer or cooler this meteorological year is than the average for 2008/9 to 2017/18. You would expect roughly half of the stations to be warmer than average. How much warmer (or cooler) may come as a surprise.

I have twinned my Ten Stations. The “warmest” northern hemisphere station is chummed with the “coolest” in the south…and so on. Over a rolling five-week cycle I will offer graphs for each set of twins, beginning with Koltsovo and Buenos Aires.

Here’s a suite of charts/graphs/histograms. See what you make of them.

Wks22to26KoltBA

Southern Summer

Here are the results from five weather stations south of the equator –

SouthernSummerAboveP-I

There is no way of knowing if the TEN Stations together are representative of the Earth as a whole. They combine to give an AVERAGE temperature in the first quarter of the meteorological year of 1.22°C above the Pre-Industrial Baseline; a warming of 0.37°C.

Historical records show temperatures have typically fluctuated up or down by about 0.2°F per decade over the past 1,000 years. But trends over the past 40 years have been decidedly up, with warming approaching 0.4°F per decade. That’s still within historical bounds of the past — but just barely.

Scientific American

My station figures point to a rise much faster than historical, though it is probable that the next 9 months could see this quarter’s rate fall considerably. There is, perhaps, no need to be concerned, but the 0.85°C rise since Pre-Industrial does look a bit on the low side.

There is a dataset that offers an opportunity to compare the historical past with present experience. You can freely download the Central England Mean data from the UK Met Office website. I have an Excel spreadsheet with the annual thermometer-measured figures from 1659  to 2017. It, therefore, covers much of the Maunder Minimum period (1645 to 1710).

A Central England Baseline, averaging the AVERAGE (Mean) annual temperatures from 1659 to 1750, gives a figure of 9.02°C. Calculating the rise to 1960 and each decade thereafter (and finally to 2017) yields this graph.

CentralEnglandMean

Wow, that harsh winter of 1962/3 in England made its presence felt. The rise has reached 1.3°C above the Central England Baseline. Compare that with yesterday’s Northern Winter result of 1.27°C above the Global Pre-Industrial Baseline I have chosen.

The 52 years of the 65 years long Maunder Minimum covered by the Central England dataset averaged 8.8°C, only 0.22°C less than the Baseline figure (1659 to 1750). This suggests that Eddy, if he arrives, isn’t to be feared. Some have suggested that he will be no match for continuing human-induced warming.

Are things hotting up on the sub-continent?

The legacy media are not giving us much information about the conflict between India and Pakistan. After closing its airspace on Thursday, Pakistan seems to be allowing commercial flights over the country again but India’s north-west seems to be out of bounds still. In the screenshot below the highlighted jet is an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner from London Heathrow heading for Delhi.

20190302_PakIndAirspace2

Across La Manche, the Yellow Vests have protested for the sixteenth Saturday straight. The UK regime doesn’t want us to know about it. All quiet on the BBC front.