I hope to get back to some genealogy soon but most days now I wonder, what’s the point? This new disease threatens to take the lives of millions, break down the social order in many countries, collapse the world economy and start a global war. The psychopaths that rule us should have been more careful about what they wished for.
Adjusting my Andology Prediction spreadsheet to fit the official Chinese government infection and death figures makes no sense. “Real-world” numbers are probably at least ten times higher. One source suggests 50,000 may have succumbed to the disease already. At the 8th of February I have 216,000 infected and 37,000 dead. An Infection Rate (R0) of 4.00 and Mortality Rate of 15% will see Covid-19 burn out in the first week of April after infecting a billion Chinese and killing 277 million. What price communism, civilized society and the economy surviving this?
My UK spreadsheet predicts 10 infections in three days time – and one death. So far, nobody has died. The disease will infect 84% of the population and claim lives until the middle of July, killing almost ten million in total. Given that there have been just eight people infected so far, these stats are unbelievable.
Passengers on the Plague Ship in Hong Kong have been freed but those in Yokohama are still quarantined. Only those on Diamond Princess testing positive for the virus have been taken ashore. None of those infected has died so far but there are now 135 of them. Yesterday my spreadsheet had 75 infected and three deaths. If the passengers and crew remain on the ship, 95% may become infected and 400 could lose their lives. Their ordeal is predicted to end in the middle of March.
The only value of this prediction tool is to give an idea of how bad things might become. To gain an understanding of how things are, I suggest a daily dose of Doctor John’s evidence-based elixir.
The novel Coronavirus hasn’t been given a snappy acronym yet, like MERS or SARS. I would favour a name like Mad Scientist Disease or BWF (BioWeapon Flu). Gates of Hell Syndrome has a ring to it. Watching videos of people falling dead in the street in China, or vomiting blood on public transport, is very upsetting. How much worse is it going to get?
I downloaded the coronavirus prediction tool from Andology this morning. It is an Excel spreadsheet in which you can insert country-specific values for the following Assumptions:-
Start Date (Patient Zero)
Infection Rate (R0)
Incubation Time (Days)
Virus Burnout Rate
If you like messing around with spreadsheets you may find this one a joy to use – the pleasure obviously tainted by observing the deaths of millions of people.
I “modelled” China first. There is a suspicion that the Chinese Government is under-reporting infections and deaths but my first set of Assumptions generated much lower figures than those published to date. Adjusting R0 and Mortality Rate brought 450 predicted deaths to 5 February (494 reported), but these derived from only 2744 infections (24,447 reported). I will play around with the assumptions to see if I can bring predictions and reality closer together and thereby get a better idea of the final death rate when the virus burns out.
Each country infected will have a different journey over the spikey bell curve of rapidly increasing illness and death and an equally precipitous fall to zero infection in the population.
I applied the China assumptions to the UK (just two infected people so far) and was surprised that the virus died at about the same time – mid-June this year in China and a couple of weeks later in the UK. In around six months my models predict 392 million Chinese deaths and almost 10 million Brits and Northern Irish. As we wait in the UK for the novel coronavirus to claim its first victim, this outcome seems unlikely.
But the exponential growth of anything bad is the stuff of nightmares.
With my set of amateurish assumptions, China will lose 27% of its population and the UK 14%. That’s 42% of those infected in China and 16% in the UK. The R0 and initial assumed Mortality Rate are the same for both countries (3.7 and 10%). I’m not clever enough to figure out this difference in the final outcome.
I hope things work out much better than this – but it could possibly be worse. Deaths resulting from the possible collapse of the global economy and social breakdown worldwide have to be factored in somehow.
2020 was going to be an interesting year without this.
Another name for novel coronavirus – WuFlu. You can also keep up with developments at Johns Hopkins. And if you download the prediction tool from Andology you can get up-to-date population figures at Worldmeters.
I watched the inauguration of President Putin yesterday morning, “live” on RT. Fascinating. I was particularly engaged by the soldiers’ uniforms and the choreographed movements of the ceremonial – and the stunning Kremlin interiors.
In my early teens, in the early 60s, I watched Ballad of a Soldier (dir. Grigori Chukhrai) on our small screen black and white TV. I was very impressionable. Heroism, romance, tragedy, loss – and the wonderful strangeness of the Russian tongue. I wasn’t at all surprised to be moved by the singing of the National Anthem yesterday.
As I write this, the news is breaking that the Israeli military has ordered the unlocking of bomb shelters in the area of the Golan Heights, having detected “irregular activity” of Iranian forces in Syria. POTUS has just announced American withdrawal from the “Iran Deal”.
Israel appears to want America to fight its battle with Iran, hoping to benefit territorially when the conflict ends. I expect Netanyahu will be surprised if, fingers crossed, President Trump doesn’t oblige.
There are no certainties these days, other than those old standbys, death and taxes. Although his seemingly erratic behavior may suggest otherwise, I don’t think President Trump wants a war with Iran, Russia and, perhaps China. President Putin, laughably labeled an aggressor for the past several years, has been calling for dialogue and cooperation with “the West” – and turning the other cheek to each rejection, libel, and slander.
On my daily walks, I have met several “ordinary people” in Filey who reckon the two Presidents may have a pleasant surprise in store for us. We can but hope. A future determined by globalists is a bleak one. A New Silk Road Alliance led by a swamp-drained America, India, Russian Federation and China seems more hopeful. Something worth fighting for?