Lies and Statistics

It is a while since I updated the running average temperatures of my Ten Weather Stations. There have been countless extreme weather events recently. The usual suspects of heat, fire, flood and ice melt joined by the occasional surprise package, like summer snowfalls in China. But none have done much to alter the trends in my token scraps of the planet.

The five representatives of the northern hemisphere have continued to cool. The southern five have been much cooler this meteorological year than last, but over the last ten weeks their temperatures have started to rise, and may continue to do so until November.

I have simplified the graphs by not naming the 5 stations but in order of warmth in Week 27 (with mean temperatures in degrees Centigrade above the Pre-Industrial baseline) they are Koltsovo (5.52), Shanghai (2.87), Rome (2.40), Mumbai (2.16) and Washington DC (1.39). They combine to trend steadily downwards but are still well above the IPCC’s 2040 Paris Accord projected target.

Wellington is warmest of the southern 5 (1.11), followed by Buenos Aires (0.97), Sydney (0.82), Cape Town (0.3) and Rio de Janeiro (-0.18). Together they are over 0.2°C cooler than the global average in 2017, as determined by the IPCC.

I don’t know why the running average temperature is so different in the two hemispheres this year – and have not seen any explanations online while checking if climate change is still a hoax or not. My Ten Station Globe’s recent experience looks like this:-

The Ten Stations are currently warming at a rate 25 times greater than hoped for by the IPCC. (At the end of this year the temperature above Pre-Industrial is projected to be 1.06°C. Adding 25 “IPCC units” to this gives the 1.61 degrees indicated in the graph above. One unit is the projected annual global average rise of 0.0217°C.)

That Other Hoax

The “inventor” of the PCR Test says it should not be used to detect COVID 19 in the human animal (or paw paw or goat). It seems to be widely accepted that 80% of the pointless tests give “false positives”. So the four members of the family in New Zealand that have triggered the lockdown of Auckland may not have the infamous disease at all. Across the Tasman, Kim Jong Dan is doing terrible things to the population of Victoria. Police have been videoed strangling a young woman and body-slamming her to the payment – for not wearing a face covering.

So, two of the countries least affected by the novel flu are rapidly turning into the most tyrannical. New Zealand is on course to be under martial law by the beginning of October.

Yesterday I chose ten countries to “follow”, just to see if the next lockdown of the UK could be justified by “the figures”. What figures? Number of cases cannot be trusted. Number of COVID 19 deaths reported cannot be trusted. (How many people who haven’t had a test have been sent letters informing them that they are Covid positive?) In truth, there are no reliable data for the disease anywhere.

Although they may have been inflated in various underhand ways, I am running with the reported COVID deaths. Worldometers calculate deaths per million population for every country. It is easy to spot the countries that have been “hit hard”.

I thought I’d calculate the chances of dying from (or with) COVID 19 by simply dividing the number of deaths by the country’s population. Yesterday my Number One country, against which the other nine would be measured, was Australia. Hearing about about the poor Kiwis facing outright tyranny this morning made me add New Zealand to the list. I’m not quite organized yet so the Table below should be treated with caution. It seems to be heading in the right direction – in that the chance of dying from (with) COVID in rank order is the same as Worldometers Deaths per Million list. (The two sets of figures have a family resemblance.)

Note: Not all the populations are the latest “live” figures. The Worldometer “perMil” figures were accessed early this afternoon. I hope to take the temperature of the 11 countries at a set hour each day but the immediate takeaway is that I am at least 150 times more likely to die of/with COVID in the UK than the average New Zealander. Of course, being over 70 I have the regime’s cross-hairs on my heart or forehead. Curious how a country where the chances are 0.0005% of being killed by/with COVID can become the most fascistic nation on earth  in a heartbeat.

UK Column News features lies and statistics today. Support Billy TK.

Beach 112 · Muston Sands

Education

The UK Column chaps ended their bulletin today on a light note. They had picked up a meme showing an image of a teacher addressing her near future back-to-schoolers, “So children, what did we learn during lockdown?”

20200511ChildrenLearning

Adult education for me today included this –

20200511ScientistsWarning

The conversation that accompanies this cautionary note is enlightening. If you watch it, the Google algorithm will recommend Part 2. In this, John Doyle references the blue ocean event, global dimming and the dangers of wet bulb temperatures. When I gathered my data at Weather Underground this morning I noticed Category 6  had just posted Heat and Humidity Near the Survivability Threshold.

There is still no sign of a sudden rise of temperature in any of my Ten Stations (as a consequence of a less polluted atmosphere). Running average temperatures from the beginning of the meteorological year over the last five weeks show:-

4 of the northern 5 stations are warmer than in the same period last year but at only one, Rome, is it currently getting relatively warmer. Washington was warmer than last year (just) until last week.

Wks19to23cfLastYr_WashingtonDC
This Met. Year cf Last, Weeks 19 to 23, °C.

Washington DC is the only northern station currently below 2°C above P-I.

All 5 southern stations are now cooler than the IPCC projection for the end of November 2020.

Wellington is now the warmest of the southern stations this year at 1.06° above P-I exactly. (The IPCC year-end projection is 1.0652 degrees.) But in Week 23 it was 0.55°C cooler than last year, up 0.35 degrees from Week 19.

Wks19to23cfLastYr_Wellington

 

Bird 84 · Kestrel

11_20180511Kestrel2_6m

North-South Divide 2

The meteorological year is 21 weeks old. Enough time for a comparison to be made with last year’s temperature data from my Ten Stations.

Five stations in each hemisphere is a tiny sample of the total number reporting, so they are in no way representative of the whole world’s temperature experience. They do, however, combine to tell a story that can question the official climate change narrative.

The northern hemisphere is considerably warmer than it should be relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline. At the end of November 2019, the 5 Stations averaged 1.24°C above P-I. The chart below shows the marked difference this year.

Wk21_NorthIPCCunits

The relative warmth peaked in Week 16 at 127.46 IPCC units. This is massive when you consider the IPCC has projected a single unit rise annually until 2040 sees the Paris Accord’s 1.5°C above P-I reached – if humans fail to tackle the “climate emergency” successfully.

127.46 IPCC units equate to 3.84°C above P-I. The steep decline in five weeks is as welcome as it is surprising, given that reduced industrial activity and transport was expected by some to raise land surface temperatures.

The picture in the southern hemisphere is very different.

Wk21_SouthIPCCunits

Ending last year within a smidgen of 1.5°C above P-I, the south has effectively cooled by almost a degree. It would require a drop of another 23 IPCC units to make the southern hemisphere fall below the Pre-Industrial Baseline, but Rio de Janeiro has done that and Cape Town is currently just 0.04°C above P-I.

Despite the recent relative temperature decline in the north and the seeming stasis in the south the linear trends to the end of the year are up in the north and down in the south, suggesting the North-South divide will be maintained.

Wk21_GlobeIPCCunits

 

From the beginning of Week 6 to the middle of Week 18 the 10 Station “mini Globe” had maintained a temperature over 2°C above P-I. The trend from now to the end of the year is upwards, though it is possible that the cold times are coming.

Flower 15 · Mother-dee

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

My breakfast reading is currently Man and the Natural World (Keith Thomas) and discovering that Red Campion (Silene dioica­) has this disturbing vernacular name sent me along Church Walk this morning. Of little use as a food or medicine, this flower was thought, once upon a time, to kill the parents of any child who picked it. “Popular knowledge” in the Middle Ages bestowed a lot of other names upon it, some of them shared with other quite different flowers. Five are “Robin” names and half an hour after taking this photo I met a fine specimen of Erithacus rubecula in Martin’s Ravine.

Bird 80 · Robin

28_20200428Robin2_6m

Ten minutes later I reached the Glen Gardens cliff top and was thrilled to hear a ‘northern nightingale’, one of several birds once familiarly called Peggy. (The others are whitethroat, garden warbler, willow warbler and chiffchaff.) The lovely song was coming from a distant tree, the sea beyond.

Bird 81 · Blackcap

28_20200428Blackcap1_6m

Linneans chose to call “her” Sylvia atricapilla.

Fifteen more minutes and I was back in prison.

 

North-South Divide

It may be lockdown lethargy, or the brain fog many are suffering whilst sheltering in place – I’ve lost my impetus where genealogy and family history are concerned. But I can still juggle happily with numbers for hours on end. Disappointed with the appearance of a graph showing temperature differences this year in the two hemispheres (relative to the Pre-industrial baseline), I sought a whole measure smaller than a degree centigrade or Fahrenheit and found one. I have called it an “IPCC unit”.

The International Panel on Climate Change issued a paper at the time of the Paris Accord that declared the global average temperature had risen one-degree centigrade above Pre-Industrial by 2017. It suggested a further half a degree rise by 2040 – to the 1.5°C limit that should be avoided at all costs.

Assuming an unwavering linear rise, we are looking at a modest-seeming 0.0217°C per annum. (I reckon that to be 0.0391 degrees in Fahrenheit money.)

Creating the graph using IPCC units gives this picture of weekly temperature relative to Pre-Industrial, reported by my Ten Stations over the last thirteen weeks.

NorthSouthDivide_Wks8to20

I have kept it as simple as possible to make it clear that the northern stations are responsible for all the above-average global warming in this time period and the southern stations for all but a tiny bit of the cooling.

Koltsovo has warmed at over 250 times the rate projected by the IPCC. Rio de Janeiro is the “coolest” of the stations.

Koltsovo has cooled by about 55 IPCC units over the thirteen weeks. That’s about 1.2°C, down from 7.8°C above Pre-Industrial to 6.6 degrees. (Global warming isn’t a hoax in Russia.)

Rio’s average weekly mean temperature over this period was 25.6°C but it cooled about 12 IPCC units, or 0.25°C,  from 0.19 to 0.44 degrees BELOW Pre-Industrial.

Shanghai is the northern station that is closely tracking the hemisphere average.

The Ten Station Globe has dropped from 2.09°C above Pre-Industrial in Week 8 to  1.89 degrees in week 20. It is, however, a long drop to a rise of only a single IPCC unit by the end of the meteorological year.

Metal 11 · Roundabout

25_20170425SnowRoundabout1_1m

 

A Little Bit Warmer

A prediction that the globe may warm by about a degree centigrade over the next few months because of reduced fossil fuel burning is still a reasonable bet. Last week, six of my Ten Stations were cooler than the week before, but by such small amounts that the “mini Globe” warmed by 0.008°C.

Seven of the stations were warmer in Week 16 than the week before. Going against the trend of the meteorological year so far, the southern hemisphere was warmer than the north (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline). The rise was 0.021°C. This may seem insignificant but it is an IPCC year’s worth of extra heat in the projection game.

Wk16_MeanIncDecr_10

Millions of locked down people have other things to worry about but there’s no escaping climate and environmental matters with Greta and Prince Charles catching Covid-19.

The Hottest January?

There are two schools of thought. The Earth’s land and oceans have been warming for the last twenty years. Er, no, they have been cooling.

Our world can’t do both at the same time surely, so who is right? (Obviously, both sides agree that the climate is changing.)

A few days ago, NOAA declared that January 2020 was the hottest on record, globally. It beat 2016 by 0.02°C, a ridiculously tiny amount compared to the margin of error of the calculation. But wait…

The four warmest Januaries documented in the climate record have occurred since 2016; the 10 warmest have all occurred since 2002.

NOAA

I have been a “warmist” for as long as I can remember, a position reinforced by the Ten Weather Stations I’ve been monitoring. I spent a few hours on Sunday extending the series back to 2001and calculated the difference between the January Mean and the Ten Year Average for each station. The resulting hemisphere/globe charts look like this.

January_NORTH_0120

January_SOUTH_0120

January_GLOBE_0120

It is clear that 2020 wasn’t the warmest January at one northern station. Koltsovo was the anomaly and I had to check the data at Weather Underground. Seventeen days were over 20 degrees Fahrenheit and three above freezing. Phew! Unprecedented?

The trendlines show warming in the 21st century but this does not mean that the “Coolists” are wrong in their assertions. Ten stations is a pitifully small sample. I may, by chance, have picked on those returning unusually high mean temperatures.

As a control (of sorts), I looked at Durham Tees, going back as far as the data were available in an uninterrupted sequence.

DurhamTeesJANUARY9720

I was surprised to see northern England experienced Koltsovo-like relative warmth in 2007, with 2020 coming a dismal 4th and 2016 5th (of 24 years). But the trendline is almost flat, so it is not difficult to imagine that hundreds of stations could easily dip the other way.

(Januarys/Januaries.)

I wonder what the Hemisphere and Globe charts would look like if the data from every station available on Weather Underground were to be interrogated and averaged.

The elephant (or polar bear) in the room is the accusation from the Cool folk that NOAA doctors the raw temperature data to suit a global warming narrative. Mallen Baker answers the charge.

Target

The UK’s Met Office has just released its decadal forecast for global weather. Over the first five years of the 2020s, the global annual average temperature is expected to be between 1.15°C and 1.46°C “above pre-industrial conditions”. There is a 10% chance of one of the years exceeding the Paris Accord target of 1.5°C above P-I.

The Met Office appears to be in step with the IPCC, accepting an 1850 start to industrial conditions and a minimum global average at the end of this year of 1.06°C. This figure, I think, is derived from the IPCC projection of a rise of global average temperature from one degree above pre-industrial in 2017 to 1.5°C in 2040, a straight line rise of 0.0217 degrees per annum.

If the Met Office is right and 1.5 is reached by 2024, the one chance in 10 odds that subsequent years will be as warm or warmer will shorten. How long will it be before every year has an average temperature “above Paris”? Well before 2040, possibly.

At the end of Week 9 this Meteorological Year, my five Northern weather Stations are running at 3.59°C above Pre-industrial. (Least warm is Rome at 1.99 and warmest Koltsovo at 7.52.)

The five Southern stations are much cooler. Rio de Janeiro is now 0.09°C BELOW Pre-industrial. Sydney’s running average increased from 1.21 to 1.52°C in the last 7 days. It is the only southern station in the “orange zone” (above Paris). The five together average 0.57°C above Pre-industrial, giving a 10 station global average of 2.08°C above P-I. This is a rate of warming for the year-to-date that is 47 times the IPCC projection. (The math is simple. The expected IPCC temperature at the end of the year is 1.0652 above P-I. Take this away from 2.08 and divide the result by 0.0217.)

I am quite taken by the difference between the hemispheres this year. Last year the South warmed more than the North.

9_WarmerDays2020

The North is getting a bit warmer and the South a little cooler. The 10-station Globe Warmer Days percentage is currently 52, amusingly the proportion of Brits that voted for Brexit in 2016.

At Eight Weeks

At the end of the first quarter of Meteorological Year 2018/19, the two hemispheres (each represented by 5 Weather Stations) were running Mean Temperatures above Pre-Industrial that differed by only one-hundredth of a degree Centigrade. North 1.31, South 1.32; rounding to a Global figure of 1.32 above P-I.

Things are very different this year. At the end of Week 8, four of the northern stations are in the “red zone” – more than 2°C above P-I. Rome is in the orange zone – above the Paris Target but below two degrees. They combine to yield a hemisphere average of 3.7°C above P-I.

8_NORTH_MeancfP-I

The biggest contributor to this increase in relative warmth is Koltsovo, the coldest of the five stations. (The daily mean there has crept above zero centigrade on just three of the 56 days.)

8_Koltsovo_MeancfP-I

The GFS 10-day weather forecast model shows a huge cold air mass moving east from Europe across the Federation – I’m expecting a dip over the next couple of weeks but it is a long way down to 2 degrees above P-I. It may take a Grand Solar Minimum to get it there by the end of the year.

Of course, returns from the thousands of other northern stations could bring my token average of 3.7C above P-I down to a figure that won’t frighten the horses. I have no way of knowing how representative my Ten Stations are. They could even be giving a false picture. These graphs should only be taken as an indication of what may be happening to global temperatures – and viewed in the context of current climate change hysteria.

After 8 weeks then, my North is running at 2.16°C warmer than the same period last year. My South is 0.7 degrees cooler. Putting the two together gives this chart of my “mini Globe’s” weekly differences, with a slight warming trend.

8_GlobeWkDiff20cf19

 

 

Winter Heat, Summer Chill

BBC Radio 4 News woke me this morning with the three top stories being about Climate Change. Not surprising, perhaps, when the guest editor of the Today Programme is Marmite Greta. (Disclosure: I love Greta.)

Four weeks into the new Meteorological Year and things are shaping up in interesting and surprising ways.

Last year ended with my five northern weather stations averaging a Mean Temperature of 1.08°C above Pre-Industrial, and the southern five 1.31 degrees. To bring my Pre-Industrial Baseline into closer alignment with that of the IPCC, I have added 0.15°C to these figures, recalculating my 10 stations “Globe” to an annual Mean of 1.35 degrees above P-I.

Australia has been receiving a lot of attention recently, because of the bushfires, and for a day or two, it was clearly the hottest place on earth. Another wave of heat is expected to roll in this week but Sydney’s running average of daily mean temperatures is currently lower this year than last. It is 1.17°C above P-I compared to the (revised) year-end 1.47 degrees.

Three other southern stations are running cooler than last year. Only Buenos Aires is warmer than at the same stage last year but only 0.48°C above P-I. Comparing this to the IPCC’s Projection to 1.5°C above P-I in 2040 yields a Warming Rate of minus 27. (After four weeks last year it was minus 85.)

It will take more than a month for temperature “patterns” to become settled. Daily variability anywhere on the earth’s surface can be huge. On Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, Koltsovo was 20 degrees centigrade warmer this year than last. Yekaterinburg is currently experiencing temperatures at 6.8°C above P-I. This equates to a Warming Rate 264 times higher than the IPC Projection. It isn’t sensible to compare the monthly change at just one place with the IPCC’s global monthly projection but, just for a lark, Koltsovo is currently warming 3,229 times faster than the whole world is expected to this month. But this rate could fall to a negative figure in a matter of weeks – especially when (if) the Grand Solar Minimum bites.

For now, only Washington DC is running cold in my northern hemisphere of five stations. It ended last year at 1.51°C above P-I and is currently 0.14 degrees BELOW Pre-Industrial. Rome is 3.3° above, Mumbai 2.99 and Shanghai 3.54.

One can boil the ten-station temperature data into any number of different graphs and charts but here are a couple for the infant northern winter and southern summer.

Wk4_MEANcfP-I_NSG

Wk4_MEANcfLastYr_NSG

Don’t be panicked by these graphs. My mini globe’s warming by 0.8 degrees C in four weeks, when the IPCC posits 0.5 degrees in 23 years, is obviously survivable – and subject to change. For now, though, it seems our world has turned upside down with the north being (relatively) warmer compared to last year and the south cooler.

Today’s Image…

…is rather frosty, as was yesterday’s. On 28 December 2016 the low temperature at Whitby was 0.6°C, and 6.23 degrees warmer than that this year. The low at Durham Tees a couple of days ago was a bit higher than Whitby, at 7.22 centigrade. Parts of the UK in the current “unseasonably warm” spell could reach a high of 16°C. The running average Mean for this month in Durham Tees is 2.07°C above P-I. At the same time last year it was 1.28, quite a drop from the first week’s 2.78 above.

Climate Change

from the BBC today:-

Mark Carney

Greta & Sir David

Australia

Massive Attack

Moscow

Two Weeks…

…into the current Meteorological Year, how much is the temperature rising at the Ten Stations?

The Northern Hemisphere has experienced warming that the IPCC isn’t expecting until 2095 – at 2.96°C above Pre-Industrial. Fortunately, the South is bang on the 1.06 degrees the IPCC projected at the end of the year. So in two weeks, the mini Globe has only warmed 38 times as quickly as the IPCC imagined.

The main driver of warmth in The Ten is Koltsovo. In Week 2 it was 4.51°C warmer than at the same time last year, 6.23 degrees above P-I and with a Warming Rate of x238. Eighteen hundred kilometres to the west, Moscow is having a similar experience.

Obviously, all the stations will have weeks of relatively low temperatures in the coming months (north and south) and who knows, by the end of the Met Year they will as a group be close to the IPCC Projection. They may even go below the projected 1.06 degrees. In some graphs I have seen online, the Grand Solar Minimum, the Maunder feel-alike, is expected to take up residence in 2020.

The mythical Sam Carana, at Arctic News, is nonetheless doubling down on his gloomy prognostications of human extinction by 2026. He makes a case for us all departing this life in the coming calendar year.

Extinction and “Global Warming is a hoax” are clearly poles apart. Speaking of which, the GFS 10 Day forecast on Climate Reanalyzer has the Arctic at 2.3°C warmer than expected today but falling to -0.6 a week from now. The Antarctic hovers around 1.6 to 2.0 degrees warmer for the coming 10 days and the World stays mostly within a range of +0.3 to +0.6 (14 to 28 times warmer than the IPCC bargains for.

Here are Week Two graphics for the Ten Stations in Two Hemispheres, plus Durham Tees.

Week2_NorthPlus

Week2_SouthPlus.jpg

Gathering the data and constructing the graphs takes me away from the main task of putting headstone photos on the FamilySearch Shared Tree, so I won’t be doing weather posts every week. I’ll perhaps do an update after each completed month, with an occasional Week Graph if it illustrates something extreme or unexpected. In the media in Week 2 much was made of the heatwave expected in New South Wales that would intensify the bushfires. Notice above that Sydney is roughly in the middle of the green Goldilocks zone. The daily high peaked at 108°F yesterday but fell to 79 degrees (26.11°C) today. Records in Oz may be broken again as summer progresses. Across the Tasman, Wellington was the only one of the southern five in the red. The New Zealand capital may not cool down any time soon.