Running a Temperature

20190215SandRunner1_8mThe breakfast news mentioned that some British children would be walking out of school today in protest at the regime’s lack of any meaningful response to the threat of climate change. Good on ‘em. They must surely see their future slipping away from them. It is time to challenge those with the greatest capacity to make a difference. Put their feet to the fire.

With the end of the first quarter of the current meteorological year being a couple of weeks away, I have been rustling up some data for a Canary Report.

Up to the 13th February, six out of my ten Weather Stations have recorded continuing warming. In the Northern Hemisphere, Beijing and Mumbai contributed to an overall slight cooling of .14° C. In the Southern Hemisphere, a cooler Buenos Aires and Cape Town couldn’t compete with the warmth elsewhere. The south has warmed by 0.48°C so far this meteorological year. Rio de Janeiro and Wellington, New Zealand, are the warmest places this quarter. The Paris Accord, fingers crossed, hopes global warming won’t rise more than 1.5°C above the notional pre-industrial baseline. Rio has gone above 2°C (just) this summer and Wellington has reached 1.96°C. There is no cause for alarm yet – but I think children are right to be concerned.

Here on the Yorkshire Coast, we have had a mild winter. Whitby is on the cusp of breaking through Paris (at 1.4°C above pre-industrial). But, hey, there are still 9 months ahead for the promised Grand Solar Minimum to cool the year down.

I’d like to think thousands of children around the world have walked out of class today, following the example of Greta Thunberg. Hopefully, they will learn something useful that school couldn’t, or wouldn’t, teach them.

GretaStriking

December Hot and Cold

I copied and pasted December average temperatures for ten weather stations from Weather Underground, for the years 2008 to 2018. (The link takes you to the Beijing Capital Station for December 2018. You may be interested in having a look round the website, perhaps for a weather station close to where you live.)

The 10 years 2008 to 2017 provided a baseline and deducting 1.1°F (0.6°C)  from the figure for each station gives serviceable pre-industrial baselines that may be considered distant cousins to the IPCC’s Global Annual pre-industrial baseline.

The Ten Station December pre-industrial baselines were then deducted from the actual December 2018 figures to give an Above or Below Pre-Industrial result. For Earth as a whole (and on an annual basis) we are told that Anthropogenic Global Warming has pushed temperatures to, roughly, 0.6 to 1.0°C. It may be a surprise to see December Temperatures at three stations colder than they may have been before 1750, or warmer than the Paris Accord’s hopeful upper limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial.

Canary isn’t interested in “actual figures”. She is only concerned about detecting significant warming OR cooling over the next couple of years. My chosen early warning system involves monitoring the number of days each month that the Average Temperature at the Ten Stations falls below Pre-industrial or rises above the Paris 1.5 degrees C. (Given the wide range of average daily temperatures it is not really surprising that only a few days a month fall between the calculated pre-industrial baseline and 1.5 degrees Paris target.)

Here is part of an Excel spreadsheet that shows just the two Pre-industrial figures for each station.

Dec2018PreInd

When January’s figures are in I can begin “joining the dots” and by the end of the meteorological year 2018/19, a pattern may have emerged that will indicate whether we humans will starve whilst baking or freezing.

(Eleven Year histograms show a modest warming trend for nine of my chosen stations. Only Mumbai has gone, immodestly, the other way.)

MUMBAI_11yrDEC

I watched a couple of YouTube videos yesterday. It is important, I think, to consider both sides, even if you don’t believe one of them.

Ice Age Farmer

The Scott Adams Climate Challenge

Taking Earth’s Temperature

20181231_7spotLadybirdIt was unseasonably mild on the Yorkshire Coast today, reaching 11.3°C at the Whitby Weather Station I’ve “followed” for the last nine years. The average high for the last day of those years is 9°C, with 2011 taking the top spot at 12.4 degrees. This solitary representative (inset) of Coccinella 7-punctata on my yard wall today may have been confused by the recent warmth.

I put genealogy research to one side for the “Festive Season” and concentrated on collecting December temperature data from weather stations in the vicinity of my ten chosen cities. for Canary to peck through. I think I have found a way to graphically display the present meteorological year so that it is clear which way we are heading – towards further warming or plunging into the Eddy Grand Solar Minimum and “Little Ice Age”. Though the human experience of each scenario will be very different, the inability to grow enough food for The 7 Billion is common to both. Either way, the 99% can expect to go hungry.

There is one other possible future. Anthropogenic global warming will wage a battle with the sun, its spots and cycles, and an honourable draw will keep temperatures at a level where grains can “continue to be grown at scale”, (McPherson et al).

I will log the temperatures for the last few days od December tomorrow and offer a brief report in a day or two. Since last mentioning this project I have switched to noting daily average temperatures rather than maximums. I can more easily fall into step with the great warning from the IPCC that we must not put so much carbon into the atmosphere that the global annual average temperature rises more than 2°C above the pre-industrial baseline. (The Paris Accord of a couple of years ago urged all nations to do what they could to keep the rise below 1.5°C so that we might avoid the wildest of weather consequences.)

“Preindustrial” is a bit of a woolly concept and is sometimes rather laughably described as “before 1850”. One of the first characters with a huge carbon footprint (before such a thing was a twinkle) was born in the 17th century and began smelting iron using coke rather than wood in 1709, three decades before James WATT was born.

There doesn’t seem to be a consensus on how much temperatures have risen since pre-industrial but I have plumped for 0.6°C to the beginning of the 21st century. There may have been a further rise of 0.4°C in the last 18 years but, in deference to those who say there has been no noticeable warming since 2000, I’m not taking this into account. Attempting to establish actual figures isn’t the name of Canary’s game, so the notional rise since preindustrial is not really important.

Except for one purpose. I have used the 0.6 figure to give my ten cities (and Whitby) a monthly preindustrial baseline, DEDUCTING this amount from a ten-year average of Daily Average Temperatures (2008 to 2017). I’ve then added the amounts necessary to give a Paris 1.5 degree target and the 2.0 degree “top speed” we must not exceed if human civilization is to continue.

I’ll use this December’s data to show how this scheme might work – and hopefully make sense. Then I’ll return to some genealogy. The main task in 2019 will be to put as many headstone photographs as I can onto FamilySearch Tree. I may not have much time to research local stories.

2018 has been crazy and it is hard to imagine the New Year being any less chaotic. I was relieved that the Ukraine-Donbass contact line remained fairly quiet – but who would have thought Israel would launch a missile attack on Damascus on Christmas Day? Whatever next?

My Little Canary

I’ve made an infinitesimal contribution to digging the coal mine but have no idea what is going to happen to us all, eventually, in consequence. More extreme weather events and the extinction of up to 200 species of animal and plant each day are suggested responses to our profligate burning of fossils fuels. But many folk bang on about the global temperature not rising at all for the last twenty years. And more are now voicing the opinion that the climate change hoax is the demon spawn of globalists. With sleeping nationalists/populists waking to fight the likes of the Weasel Macron, the physics that determine our planet’s climate may be lost in the fog of battle.

Enter my canary. I’m not long for this earth so it is gratifying that the timeline to human extinction by “runaway greenhouse” or the onset of a Mini Ice Age is so short. Daily temperatures must rise or fall alarmingly if we are to be roasted by 2026 or deep frozen by 2021.

It is one thing to pour scorn on satellites and the elaborate computer models of climatologists, quite another to cast doubt on the humble thermometer. I’m going to put my faith in such instruments in ten locations around the world and accept their output as reliable. My math skills are not great, but they don’t have to be. The only formula I expect to apply to daily maximum temperatures is ‘Average’.

Some of my first choices of weather stations had to be given up because their data didn’t go back to 2008. I replaced them with stations with a long enough history. My final picks don’t pretend to “represent” global coverage.

Northern Hemisphere: Capital Station, Beijing; Chhatrapati Shivaji International, Mumbai; Koltsovo Station, Novosibirsk; Ciampino Station, Rome; Ronald Reagan Washington National.

Southern Hemisphere: Jorge Newbery Aeroparque, Buenos Aires, Cape Town Station (SA); Santos Dumont Station, Rio de Janeiro; Kingsford Smith International, Sydney, Wellington International (NZ).

I’ll continue gathering data from the Whitby station I’ve “followed” for the last ten years.

Here are three sample graphs/histograms for Whitby in November.

NovemberTEST_graph1

Three things can be discerned amid the jumble of lines.

  • The orange 10-year average smoothes out the extreme differences of individual years.
  • 2018 wasn’t the warmest November since 2008.
  • 2018 was warmer than the 10 year average on 21 days out of 30.

NovemberDaysWarmer

This histogram would seem to indicate that the warmest November was in 2011, followed by 2014, 2015 and then 2018.

The top four by the average monthly temperature were:-

2011: 12.43°C

2015: 11.98

2014: 11.2

2009: 11.16

2018 came in fifth at 11.05°C. The coldest November was 2016 (max average 8.34°C). This was a surprise given the sudden decline into snow and ice in 2010, but that November had a warm beginning and middle. And after a very cold start, 2011 clearly heated up to take its top spot (above).

Another way of representing the maximum daily temperature data is to plot how each November average departs from the 10-year average.

NovMthAvCF10yr

Adding the trendline indicates that Novembers from 2008 to 2018 warmed slightly. If you add the departures from the 10-year average of the 4 pink columns to the 6 light blue you get, in this instance, zero. (That’s averages for you.) The rise in November temperature over the 11 years is, therefore, 1°C, the 2018 difference.

The dotty trendline is useful nonetheless. If the trendlines each month rise more steeply over the next year (or two), it would indicate progress towards perhaps significant warming. And if they fall, buy more warm clothing and an extra duvet – and hope the gas and electricity stay on.

I have made a start preparing Beijing in December. Whereas Whitby warmth is up and down between 2008 and 2017 (with six years cooler than average), Beijing’s five warmer than average years are all in the second half of the ten year period.

BeijingDecemberDraft

Note: The Beijing temperatures are in Fahrenheit. The minus 8.4°F in 2012 equates to about 4.4°C below the December 10 year average.

Onward and upward, or maybe downward. Sing, canary, sing.

Getting Warmer

Today’s Press Release from the Met Office, which received a few seconds of attention on BBC radio news programs this morning, couldn’t have been better timed for Today’s Image.

The difference eight years make! Here’s Filey seafront today –

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

How the trees have grown! As for the risen temperature, a decade is not nearly long enough to bring “climate change” into play. You need 30 years of weather data, at least, before hazarding observations about our atmospheric future.

In 2010 there wasn’t a Weather Underground PWS (Private Weather Station) in Filey to consult, but on the morning of 26 November 2010 the temperature in Whitby, thirty miles away, fell to -0.3°C. Today in the same place the minimum reached overnight was 5.28°C. Such differences on the same day of the year from one year to another, or on different days in the same month, are not unusual and are, obviously, survivable. Cold snaps and heatwaves often last only a few days here in the UK. What the Met Office doesn’t say in its Press Release is that, if summer temperatures here do rise by 5.4°C by 2070, and winter temperatures by 4.2°C, and stay so high for weeks on end, there may not be many humans around to “enjoy” them.

In the 20th century, the global temperature rose by 0.7 to 0.9°C, according to the climate.gov website. That rate has doubled in the last 40 years. So in 50 more years, add 0.9°C more. This seems rather conservative, and the UK Met Office appears to agree. On YouTube, Dahr Jamail explains the timid projections of the IPCC in 14 uncomfortable minutes.

Beware Fake Temperatures

Kevin at Black Bear News yesterday mentioned a climate comment he’d read that “weather stations are not reporting the correct temperatures in Canada”. He had noticed the same duplicity in California and I recall Robin Westenra some weeks ago reporting daily high temperatures in Wellington/Lower Hutt being suspiciously low on MSM weather websites.

This may be no more than panicky “authorities” not wanting the citizenry to become alarmed but such is the amount of heat in the earth’s atmosphere this year that their fake highs are sometimes 5ºC or more below “true”.

I have noticed recently that there are fewer “hoax” and “scam” comments now on global warming articles and reports online. “We are entering a New Ice Age.” Wouldn’t that be nice? Humanity could survive one of those. More heat is problematic.

The average high temperature in Whitby in 1962 (at the Coastguard Station) was 11.12ºC. Below is a graph of the variation from that figure, from 1963 to 2016. The last three years are from a proxy weather station in the town and there are some missing months in several years of the coastguard returns.

WhitbyHighs_1963to2016

Don’t be too alarmed that the increase in fifty years or so in Whitby is over the magic 2ºC that the world mustn’t warm since “pre-industrial” if humanity is to continue fouling its nest. The winter of 1962/63 in the UK was brutal, so the graph is starting at a particularly low base. The trend is clear, nonetheless, and the pattern will be familiar if you have seen graphs produced by NOAA and other presumably reliable organizations. (It is interesting that the very hot summer of 1976 in the UK made little impact on the annual average.)

NOAA_Temp&CO2

Source: NOAA

There have been a number of challenging climate articles and papers published online recently. If you are of a nervous disposition give them a pass.

Dahr Jamail, Sixth Mass Extinction Ushers In Record-Breaking Wildfires and Heat

Chris Hedges, Saying Goodbye to Planet Earth

Professor Jem Bendell, Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy (pdf)

Will Steffen et al, Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene (pdf)

Feeling the Heat

Radio 5 Live’s Breakfast News majored on The Great Distraction this morning – the Premier League season kicks off this evening – but earlier this week I was shocked to hear Climate Change mentioned. What? Hothouse Earth, 200 feet of sea-level rise, some parts of the globe uninhabitable? Auntie rarely touches this subject and I wondered if these predictions were Project Fear offerings,

But no, it was just a 20-second piece triggered by a new scientific paper released by Stockholm Resilience. (A PDF can be freely downloaded.)

It took about 70 years for a Frenchman, an Irishman, and a Swede to explain that it would be no joke to pump unnatural amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Joseph FOURIER “discovered” the greenhouse effect in 1824, John TYNDALL carried out experiments beginning in 1858 and Svante Arrhenius supplied quantitative data in 1896.

The path to Hell on Earth is clear now. It just requires humankind to do a collective about turn. Homo sapiens appears, though, to have a death wish.

1850_TYNDALLjohn2_PnkPDJohn TYNDALL looks rather slight in this portrait, made about 1853 by an unknown photographer (and in the public domain). He was, however, a strong, adventurous young man, known as much for mountaineering exploits as his scientific achievements. He didn’t marry until he was 55 years old. His wife, Louisa Charlotte HAMILTON was just thirty but the couple doesn’t appear to have produced children. John endured ill health as he entered his seventies and in early December 1893, Louisa made a mistake when giving him his night-time medication. He remarked upon the sweet taste of the sulfate of magnesia he was expecting and Louisa realized she had instead given him chloral. When she told him he said, “My poor darling, you have killed your John.” At the inquest, a verdict of accidental death was recorded and much sympathy afforded to Louisa.

John died at Hindhead House in Surrey and there is a photograph of his grave in the Francis Frith Collection. His name and achievements are more grandly represented in The Tyndall Centre in Manchester where, among the many scientists and engineers investigating climate change and global warming there are two of my favorite “explainers”, Kevin ANDERSON and Alice BOWS-LARKIN.

John Tyndall came from a humble background and this is reflected in the brevity of his male line on FamilySearch Tree. (One source claims a connection to William TYNDALE of Bible fame.) Louisa was from “the upper crust” and amongst her noble forebears, you will see a  number of the BOWES family going back to William (1389-1465).