My Little Canary

I’ve made an infinitesimal contribution to digging the coal mine but have no idea what is going to happen to us all, eventually, in consequence. More extreme weather events and the extinction of up to 200 species of animal and plant each day are suggested responses to our profligate burning of fossils fuels. But many folk bang on about the global temperature not rising at all for the last twenty years. And more are now voicing the opinion that the climate change hoax is the demon spawn of globalists. With sleeping nationalists/populists waking to fight the likes of the Weasel Macron, the physics that determine our planet’s climate may be lost in the fog of battle.

Enter my canary. I’m not long for this earth so it is gratifying that the timeline to human extinction by “runaway greenhouse” or the onset of a Mini Ice Age is so short. Daily temperatures must rise or fall alarmingly if we are to be roasted by 2026 or deep frozen by 2021.

It is one thing to pour scorn on satellites and the elaborate computer models of climatologists, quite another to cast doubt on the humble thermometer. I’m going to put my faith in such instruments in ten locations around the world and accept their output as reliable. My math skills are not great, but they don’t have to be. The only formula I expect to apply to daily maximum temperatures is ‘Average’.

Some of my first choices of weather stations had to be given up because their data didn’t go back to 2008. I replaced them with stations with a long enough history. My final picks don’t pretend to “represent” global coverage.

Northern Hemisphere: Capital Station, Beijing; Chhatrapati Shivaji International, Mumbai; Koltsovo Station, Novosibirsk; Ciampino Station, Rome; Ronald Reagan Washington National.

Southern Hemisphere: Jorge Newbery Aeroparque, Buenos Aires, Cape Town Station (SA); Santos Dumont Station, Rio de Janeiro; Kingsford Smith International, Sydney, Wellington International (NZ).

I’ll continue gathering data from the Whitby station I’ve “followed” for the last ten years.

Here are three sample graphs/histograms for Whitby in November.

NovemberTEST_graph1

Three things can be discerned amid the jumble of lines.

  • The orange 10-year average smoothes out the extreme differences of individual years.
  • 2018 wasn’t the warmest November since 2008.
  • 2018 was warmer than the 10 year average on 21 days out of 30.

NovemberDaysWarmer

This histogram would seem to indicate that the warmest November was in 2011, followed by 2014, 2015 and then 2018.

The top four by the average monthly temperature were:-

2011: 12.43°C

2015: 11.98

2014: 11.2

2009: 11.16

2018 came in fifth at 11.05°C. The coldest November was 2016 (max average 8.34°C). This was a surprise given the sudden decline into snow and ice in 2010, but that November had a warm beginning and middle. And after a very cold start, 2011 clearly heated up to take its top spot (above).

Another way of representing the maximum daily temperature data is to plot how each November average departs from the 10-year average.

NovMthAvCF10yr

Adding the trendline indicates that Novembers from 2008 to 2018 warmed slightly. If you add the departures from the 10-year average of the 4 pink columns to the 6 light blue you get, in this instance, zero. (That’s averages for you.) The rise in November temperature over the 11 years is, therefore, 1°C, the 2018 difference.

The dotty trendline is useful nonetheless. If the trendlines each month rise more steeply over the next year (or two), it would indicate progress towards perhaps significant warming. And if they fall, buy more warm clothing and an extra duvet – and hope the gas and electricity stay on.

I have made a start preparing Beijing in December. Whereas Whitby warmth is up and down between 2008 and 2017 (with six years cooler than average), Beijing’s five warmer than average years are all in the second half of the ten year period.

BeijingDecemberDraft

Note: The Beijing temperatures are in Fahrenheit. The minus 8.4°F in 2012 equates to about 4.4°C below the December 10 year average.

Onward and upward, or maybe downward. Sing, canary, sing.

Getting Warmer

Today’s Press Release from the Met Office, which received a few seconds of attention on BBC radio news programs this morning, couldn’t have been better timed for Today’s Image.

The difference eight years make! Here’s Filey seafront today –

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

How the trees have grown! As for the risen temperature, a decade is not nearly long enough to bring “climate change” into play. You need 30 years of weather data, at least, before hazarding observations about our atmospheric future.

In 2010 there wasn’t a Weather Underground PWS (Private Weather Station) in Filey to consult, but on the morning of 26 November 2010 the temperature in Whitby, thirty miles away, fell to -0.3°C. Today in the same place the minimum reached overnight was 5.28°C. Such differences on the same day of the year from one year to another, or on different days in the same month, are not unusual and are, obviously, survivable. Cold snaps and heatwaves often last only a few days here in the UK. What the Met Office doesn’t say in its Press Release is that, if summer temperatures here do rise by 5.4°C by 2070, and winter temperatures by 4.2°C, and stay so high for weeks on end, there may not be many humans around to “enjoy” them.

In the 20th century, the global temperature rose by 0.7 to 0.9°C, according to the climate.gov website. That rate has doubled in the last 40 years. So in 50 more years, add 0.9°C more. This seems rather conservative, and the UK Met Office appears to agree. On YouTube, Dahr Jamail explains the timid projections of the IPCC in 14 uncomfortable minutes.

Beware Fake Temperatures

Kevin at Black Bear News yesterday mentioned a climate comment he’d read that “weather stations are not reporting the correct temperatures in Canada”. He had noticed the same duplicity in California and I recall Robin Westenra some weeks ago reporting daily high temperatures in Wellington/Lower Hutt being suspiciously low on MSM weather websites.

This may be no more than panicky “authorities” not wanting the citizenry to become alarmed but such is the amount of heat in the earth’s atmosphere this year that their fake highs are sometimes 5ºC or more below “true”.

I have noticed recently that there are fewer “hoax” and “scam” comments now on global warming articles and reports online. “We are entering a New Ice Age.” Wouldn’t that be nice? Humanity could survive one of those. More heat is problematic.

The average high temperature in Whitby in 1962 (at the Coastguard Station) was 11.12ºC. Below is a graph of the variation from that figure, from 1963 to 2016. The last three years are from a proxy weather station in the town and there are some missing months in several years of the coastguard returns.

WhitbyHighs_1963to2016

Don’t be too alarmed that the increase in fifty years or so in Whitby is over the magic 2ºC that the world mustn’t warm since “pre-industrial” if humanity is to continue fouling its nest. The winter of 1962/63 in the UK was brutal, so the graph is starting at a particularly low base. The trend is clear, nonetheless, and the pattern will be familiar if you have seen graphs produced by NOAA and other presumably reliable organizations. (It is interesting that the very hot summer of 1976 in the UK made little impact on the annual average.)

NOAA_Temp&CO2

Source: NOAA

There have been a number of challenging climate articles and papers published online recently. If you are of a nervous disposition give them a pass.

Dahr Jamail, Sixth Mass Extinction Ushers In Record-Breaking Wildfires and Heat

Chris Hedges, Saying Goodbye to Planet Earth

Professor Jem Bendell, Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy (pdf)

Will Steffen et al, Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene (pdf)

Feeling the Heat

Radio 5 Live’s Breakfast News majored on The Great Distraction this morning – the Premier League season kicks off this evening – but earlier this week I was shocked to hear Climate Change mentioned. What? Hothouse Earth, 200 feet of sea-level rise, some parts of the globe uninhabitable? Auntie rarely touches this subject and I wondered if these predictions were Project Fear offerings,

But no, it was just a 20-second piece triggered by a new scientific paper released by Stockholm Resilience. (A PDF can be freely downloaded.)

It took about 70 years for a Frenchman, an Irishman, and a Swede to explain that it would be no joke to pump unnatural amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Joseph FOURIER “discovered” the greenhouse effect in 1824, John TYNDALL carried out experiments beginning in 1858 and Svante Arrhenius supplied quantitative data in 1896.

The path to Hell on Earth is clear now. It just requires humankind to do a collective about turn. Homo sapiens appears, though, to have a death wish.

1850_TYNDALLjohn2_PnkPDJohn TYNDALL looks rather slight in this portrait, made about 1853 by an unknown photographer (and in the public domain). He was, however, a strong, adventurous young man, known as much for mountaineering exploits as his scientific achievements. He didn’t marry until he was 55 years old. His wife, Louisa Charlotte HAMILTON was just thirty but the couple doesn’t appear to have produced children. John endured ill health as he entered his seventies and in early December 1893, Louisa made a mistake when giving him his night-time medication. He remarked upon the sweet taste of the sulfate of magnesia he was expecting and Louisa realized she had instead given him chloral. When she told him he said, “My poor darling, you have killed your John.” At the inquest, a verdict of accidental death was recorded and much sympathy afforded to Louisa.

John died at Hindhead House in Surrey and there is a photograph of his grave in the Francis Frith Collection. His name and achievements are more grandly represented in The Tyndall Centre in Manchester where, among the many scientists and engineers investigating climate change and global warming there are two of my favorite “explainers”, Kevin ANDERSON and Alice BOWS-LARKIN.

John Tyndall came from a humble background and this is reflected in the brevity of his male line on FamilySearch Tree. (One source claims a connection to William TYNDALE of Bible fame.) Louisa was from “the upper crust” and amongst her noble forebears, you will see a  number of the BOWES family going back to William (1389-1465).

Wet and Dry

Beneath its report on the Lady Shirley tragedy, the Hull Daily Mail noted in 1948 that it had been the wettest June for many years in Bridlington. With one day to go, 3.83 inches of rain had fallen on the town. This year one of the Weather Underground personal weather stations in Brid has reported just 0.4 of an inch for the month. It has been almost twice as wet in Filey (0.78 inches).

We are told that the reservoirs are still quite full after the wet winter but companies are struggling to treat enough water to meet increased heatwave demands. Hosepipe bans may be necessary – and there could be a shortage of lettuces. So, not much to see here.

Dahr Jamail has a wider perspective. (Thanks to seemorerocks.)

Prophets of Doom

For a couple of years, I checked climate change blogs every day – until it all became too much to bear. I wasn’t afraid of the future the data were pointing towards. I just became tired of “climate has always changed” butting heads with “but not as quickly as this”. I guess I don’t like conflict much.

Cognitive dissonance can be comforting and it won’t trouble folk on one side of the divide that the pace of “global warming” appears to be quickening. It seems only five minutes ago that Guy McPherson was giving humankind just thirty years to live. Recently he told viewers of a TV station in New Zealand that we have, collectively, only eight years to complete our bucket lists. The “news” freaked the program host into shooting his mouth off at the messenger. The good doctor has heard it all before and took the rudeness on the chin.

Guy McPherson doesn’t make stuff up. Rather, he reads the scientific papers and passes on their conclusions in a form that most people may be able to understand.

There has been a magic figure for a while now – that we can’t afford to allow the average global temperature to rise more than 2ºC above “pre-industrial”, (the middle of the 18th century). It is arguable that we are about to blow through this figure and race to 10 degrees by 2016.  This is the current reckoning by the scientists who contribute to the Arctic News blog, edited by ‘Sam Carana’.

When this information reached the “Kremlin-sponsored” media company RT it was received calmly and passed to viewers respectfully. No rudeness, no histrionics, just an invitation to make of it what you will. The reporters briefly addressed the “what can be done” question but the answer is so clearly “nothing” that I, for one, appreciated the absence of any offers of false hope.

We humans don’t have to accept that we are stuffed but what is left of our lives might be happier and more fulfilled if we did. I remember, as if it were yesterday, Mr. Swain telling his class of ten-year-olds at Stoneferry Junior & Infants a story about a friend of his who lived every day of his life “as if it would be his last”. I failed miserably to follow the example and have wasted most of my days. And producing this blog may not appear a sensible way to spend the short time old age may leave me.

Grief for what we are losing is ever-present now. The white rhino in the room. There is some comfort that Nature Bats Last – but how supportive will the planet be for surviving sentient creatures after we have finished with it?

 

Today’s Image

The winter hasn’t been so bad but some plants are “behind”. The celandines in Martin’s Ravine are reluctant to flower in their cheery way, and the monster with the gunnera-like leaves is at least a week away from its vigorous state in 2010. I used to think “rhubarb family”, but I noticed today how substantial its stems were. To describe them as “trunks” would not be misleading. Does anyone know what it is? (The largest leaf, in the foreground, is a bit smaller than an adult human hand.)

20180331UnknownPlant1_7m