Anthropogenic Temperature Change

On my second visit to Weather Underground last month I found that the Mean Temperatures of my Ten Stations were now being delivered to one decimal place (in degrees Fahrenheit). Maximum and minimum daily temperatures were still presented in whole degrees. I was happy with this change but dismayed on the next visit to find the more accurate mean temperatures rounded again to whole degrees.

Not that it matters much. Converting the Fahrenheit data offers the opportunity to present the Centigrade temperatures to two decimal places. This semblance of greater accuracy makes me feel better but nobody should be fooled.

Halfway through this meteorological year and it is still not clear that there is a long term trend to the greater warming of “Climate Change” or the cooling brought on by the promised Grand Solar Minimum.

Here are two Tables for Week 26, with Durham Tees figures added, replacing the no longer available Whitby/Filey data.

26_Table1

After several decidedly cool weeks, warmth returned to North East England – and five of the Ten Stations were more than 2 above Pre-Industrial. Rome hasn’t yet shaken off its cold.

26_Table2

The second Table shows the Year to Date running average of daily Mean temperatures, with the stations ranged from warm to cool. Koltsovo has lost its top spot to Rio de Janeiro but there’s not much between them. Sydney and Wellington are also running neck and neck. These four stations are the only ones likely to change ranking positions over the next six months.

If you recall, my Pre-Industrial Baseline is 0.85 below the average of 10 years of Mean temperatures (calculated daily for each station). The “cf10yr” column saves you having to do the mental arithmetic. The “above P-I” figures are companions to the Global Warming narrative – “we must not go above two degrees C”. The “10yr” figures show how much warmer or cooler this meteorological year is than the average for 2008/9 to 2017/18. You would expect roughly half of the stations to be warmer than average. How much warmer (or cooler) may come as a surprise.

I have twinned my Ten Stations. The “warmest” northern hemisphere station is chummed with the “coolest” in the south…and so on. Over a rolling five-week cycle I will offer graphs for each set of twins, beginning with Koltsovo and Buenos Aires.

Here’s a suite of charts/graphs/histograms. See what you make of them.

Wks22to26KoltBA

Figures

I noticed a few days ago that March was Earth’s second warmest on record. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground offered some figures. NOAA’s top five “warmest departures from average” since record keeping began place last month equal fifth, with January 2016, at +1.06°C. (March 2016 was top at +1.24°C.)

How do my 10 stations compare? With a range of +4.36 in Koltsovo to -1.56 in Mumbai they combined to average +0.96°C in March.

(It will be interesting to see if Mumbai suffers the terrible heat of the past few days. May is usually the hottest month in Madhya Pradesh but in Khargone on Sunday the temperature reached 47.5°C. Nine of the ten hottest places in the world on the 28th April were in India. Chauk in Myanmar was in 8th place.)

My results would appear to fit quite well with NOAA’s global assessment – but my notional rise is calculated from the beginning of the 18th century, about 170 years “before records began”. This is another indication that 0.85°C above the 10-Year baseline (meteorological years 2008/9 to 2017/18) could be on the low side.

Dr Guy McPherson is on record as stating that global temperature increased by 0.85°C  from pre-industrial (no date is given) to 2009. Warming then increased considerably to the present, adding a further 0.9°C. This will be unbelievable to those, like David Icke and Donald Trump, who believe “global warming” is a hoax.

If you are able to accept, for argument’s sake, that warming has indeed increased to 1.75°C above pre-industrial globally then we can forget the Paris Agreement of 2015. We are about to blast through 2°C this year if we haven’t done so already.

Here is a table showing the figures for the last full week available from the Ten Stations (7-day average). I will stick at 0.85°C, knowing it is almost certainly the lowest reasonable estimate in assessing global temperature. I have added the variation given by a middling increase in warming (+1.1°C) and a McPherson top of the range 1.75°C.

This has been the warmest week of the Met Year so far – and the arithmetic effect on global warming is rather obvious. It will be interesting to see where April 2019 stands in NOAA’s Warmest charts. You will be able to find evidence online that the Grand Solar Minimum has already begun but, so far, it is shunning my Ten Stations.

2019_MetWk21

At the end of the day, I watched The Battle Against Climate Change by Paul Kingsnorth. Recommended.

Greta Abused

The lugubrious chaps at UK Column News, fresh from their Easter break (not that you’d notice), opened today with an attack on climate change/global warming and its poster child du jour, Greta Thunberg. They put up a picture of the young Swedish activist with a smiling Jeremy Corbyn and followed with a tweet from  Jezza’s know-it-all bro, Piers.

20190424_PiersCorbyn

It seems to me that Greta is simply following a different drummer. It may not be too long before she and her elders, but maybe not betters, understand beyond all doubt which way Planet Cookie is going to crumble.

The newscasters march behind the climate sceptics and introduced an article by Mark Carney, The financial sector must be at the heart of tackling climate change. Brian Gerrish concluded:-

These people are dangerously mad, because what are these massive risks? Did he give any examples of what these massive risks are in the paper? Perhaps he does, perhaps he doesn’t. But we can’t solve the simple things, the potholes in the road, but we are going to tackle global climate change, even though the evidence is not there in the first place. (My emphasis.)

 

One of Messrs Gerrish and Robinson’s favourite japes is to feature material emanating from the government propaganda machine (the BBC) and hit it with a cartoon FAKE NEWS stamp. So it is amusing to see them trash, in a dozen words, the careers of countless climate scientists, and dismiss the campaigning of the world’s worried schoolchildren. Oh, mustn’t forget the sensibilities of this dotty old geezer, who has been presenting nature and environment programs for the BBC since I was a nipper. Maybe I have been brainwashed, but the risks look rather big to me, wherever I look.

Changing Stations

A couple of the ten Weather Stations I have been monitoring have been renamed – but their data continue to be reported. Beijing Capital, though, seems to have ‘gone dark’ and a couple of other stations in the city don’t have historical data back to December 2008. I’ve had to fly south to Shanghai to acquire replacement figures.

Shanghai experienced the same warm start to the meteorological year as Beijing and suffered the first of the big freezes. But it ended the season ‘above Paris’ (1.57°C) whereas Beijing had increased just 0.01 degree above the estimated 0.85°C rise since the Industrial Age began.

Beijing&ShanghaiWinter

I’ll report on the first month of the Northern Spring and Southern Autumn in a few days time. Solar Minimumists are reporting that the Little Ice Age is definitely underway but my Ten Weather Stations are not yet feeling a persistent chill. Arctic amplification, on the other hand, is in overdrive at the moment with temperatures well above normal in Alaska.

Southern Summer

Here are the results from five weather stations south of the equator –

SouthernSummerAboveP-I

There is no way of knowing if the TEN Stations together are representative of the Earth as a whole. They combine to give an AVERAGE temperature in the first quarter of the meteorological year of 1.22°C above the Pre-Industrial Baseline; a warming of 0.37°C.

Historical records show temperatures have typically fluctuated up or down by about 0.2°F per decade over the past 1,000 years. But trends over the past 40 years have been decidedly up, with warming approaching 0.4°F per decade. That’s still within historical bounds of the past — but just barely.

Scientific American

My station figures point to a rise much faster than historical, though it is probable that the next 9 months could see this quarter’s rate fall considerably. There is, perhaps, no need to be concerned, but the 0.85°C rise since Pre-Industrial does look a bit on the low side.

There is a dataset that offers an opportunity to compare the historical past with present experience. You can freely download the Central England Mean data from the UK Met Office website. I have an Excel spreadsheet with the annual thermometer-measured figures from 1659  to 2017. It, therefore, covers much of the Maunder Minimum period (1645 to 1710).

A Central England Baseline, averaging the AVERAGE (Mean) annual temperatures from 1659 to 1750, gives a figure of 9.02°C. Calculating the rise to 1960 and each decade thereafter (and finally to 2017) yields this graph.

CentralEnglandMean

Wow, that harsh winter of 1962/3 in England made its presence felt. The rise has reached 1.3°C above the Central England Baseline. Compare that with yesterday’s Northern Winter result of 1.27°C above the Global Pre-Industrial Baseline I have chosen.

The 52 years of the 65 years long Maunder Minimum covered by the Central England dataset averaged 8.8°C, only 0.22°C less than the Baseline figure (1659 to 1750). This suggests that Eddy, if he arrives, isn’t to be feared. Some have suggested that he will be no match for continuing human-induced warming.

Are things hotting up on the sub-continent?

The legacy media are not giving us much information about the conflict between India and Pakistan. After closing its airspace on Thursday, Pakistan seems to be allowing commercial flights over the country again but India’s north-west seems to be out of bounds still. In the screenshot below the highlighted jet is an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner from London Heathrow heading for Delhi.

20190302_PakIndAirspace2

Across La Manche, the Yellow Vests have protested for the sixteenth Saturday straight. The UK regime doesn’t want us to know about it. All quiet on the BBC front.

Northern Winter

It was 56 years ago, or thereabouts when a “new” maths teacher sat with me for some one-to-one tuition. After a few minutes, he told me what I already knew – I had no facility with figures. Mr Gibbins inspired me, though; I knuckled down. I’m sure he would have been amused had he known I got a job in a government department of statistics.

Anyway, the provisional temperature figures from my Ten Weather Stations are in. I don’t think, dear reader, that you will appreciate it if I throw too many at you, all at once. They tell a load of stories but  I’ll try to follow a moderation in all things strategy.

My original intention was to see if I could get an early warning of the onset of the promised Grand Solar Minimum – or of the sudden increase in temperature because of a threatened release of Arctic methane (from melting permafrost). The first three months of the current meteorological year don’t seem to point in either direction, definitively.

Yesterday, my YouTube recommendations included this video from Veritasium. It is quite short and, I thought, an excellent introduction to the uncertainties of Climate Change/Global Warming. I hope you will watch it.

Very briefly, I have copied the daily AVERAGE temperatures for Ten Weather Stations for the ten meteorological years from December 2008 to November 2018. For simplicity, I give each year the “name” of the 11-month year, viz 2009 to 2018, rather than 2008/9 to 2017/18 Averaging ten years of AVERAGE temperatures gave a ten-year baseline which enabled me to determine where warming has brought us since the start of the Industrial Age.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other organizations tell us that temperatures have risen n degrees since “Pre-Industrial” (or some more recent baseline of their devising). I have decided it is pointless agonising over which baseline and which temperature rise to choose.

I’ve settled for a rise of 0.85°C since 1710. I mentioned in an earlier post that I thought this was “conservative” and heard someone offer a one degree C rise since 1850 a few days ago. Really, any reasonable “ballpark” figure will do, as long is it is rigorously applied to all the weather stations in the project.

I have calculated the pre-industrial baseline figure for each day of the year for the ten stations and for this first quarter of the meteorological year deducted the actual daily AVERAGE temperatures reported to Weather Underground.

Given the nature of the 2009 to 2018 baseline, one would expect temperatures for any day in 2019 to have a 50% chance (roughly) of being warmer. And, given the variability of our weather, the difference could be many degrees warmer (or colder). Averaging the AVERAGE daily temperatures for a whole month and comparing the result with the average for the 10-year baseline will reduce the difference – but it still might be more extreme than you’d expect. Averaging the three months of the Northern Winter and Southern Summer will reduce the monthly differences further.

And, thinking ahead, averaging the AVERAGE daily temperatures for the whole meteorological year will yield an annual figure that can be set against a statement such as, “The average global temperature has increased by 0.85°C since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution”.

So, how have my 5 northern stations fared this winter compared to the 0.85°C above Pre-Industrial of 2009 to 2018?

NorthWinterAboveP-I

A note on the colour coding in the first column.

BLUE: below the Pre-Industrial Baseline!

GREEN: between 0 to 1.49°C above Pre-Industrial.

ORANGE: above the Paris Accord but below 2°C.

RED: 2°C and more above Pre-Industrial.

The amount of warming and cooling this quarter is indicated in the second column.

Novosibirsk is the coldest of the five locations but, given the brutality of the Polar Vortex in North America, the Washington DC result is more surprising. As I said, these figures are provisional. I’ll check!