A Little Bit Warmer

A prediction that the globe may warm by about a degree centigrade over the next few months because of reduced fossil fuel burning is still a reasonable bet. Last week, six of my Ten Stations were cooler than the week before, but by such small amounts that the “mini Globe” warmed by 0.008°C.

Seven of the stations were warmer in Week 16 than the week before. Going against the trend of the meteorological year so far, the southern hemisphere was warmer than the north (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline). The rise was 0.021°C. This may seem insignificant but it is an IPCC year’s worth of extra heat in the projection game.

Wk16_MeanIncDecr_10

Millions of locked down people have other things to worry about but there’s no escaping climate and environmental matters with Greta and Prince Charles catching Covid-19.

The Hottest January?

There are two schools of thought. The Earth’s land and oceans have been warming for the last twenty years. Er, no, they have been cooling.

Our world can’t do both at the same time surely, so who is right? (Obviously, both sides agree that the climate is changing.)

A few days ago, NOAA declared that January 2020 was the hottest on record, globally. It beat 2016 by 0.02°C, a ridiculously tiny amount compared to the margin of error of the calculation. But wait…

The four warmest Januaries documented in the climate record have occurred since 2016; the 10 warmest have all occurred since 2002.

NOAA

I have been a “warmist” for as long as I can remember, a position reinforced by the Ten Weather Stations I’ve been monitoring. I spent a few hours on Sunday extending the series back to 2001and calculated the difference between the January Mean and the Ten Year Average for each station. The resulting hemisphere/globe charts look like this.

January_NORTH_0120

January_SOUTH_0120

January_GLOBE_0120

It is clear that 2020 wasn’t the warmest January at one northern station. Koltsovo was the anomaly and I had to check the data at Weather Underground. Seventeen days were over 20 degrees Fahrenheit and three above freezing. Phew! Unprecedented?

The trendlines show warming in the 21st century but this does not mean that the “Coolists” are wrong in their assertions. Ten stations is a pitifully small sample. I may, by chance, have picked on those returning unusually high mean temperatures.

As a control (of sorts), I looked at Durham Tees, going back as far as the data were available in an uninterrupted sequence.

DurhamTeesJANUARY9720

I was surprised to see northern England experienced Koltsovo-like relative warmth in 2007, with 2020 coming a dismal 4th and 2016 5th (of 24 years). But the trendline is almost flat, so it is not difficult to imagine that hundreds of stations could easily dip the other way.

(Januarys/Januaries.)

I wonder what the Hemisphere and Globe charts would look like if the data from every station available on Weather Underground were to be interrogated and averaged.

The elephant (or polar bear) in the room is the accusation from the Cool folk that NOAA doctors the raw temperature data to suit a global warming narrative. Mallen Baker answers the charge.

Target

The UK’s Met Office has just released its decadal forecast for global weather. Over the first five years of the 2020s, the global annual average temperature is expected to be between 1.15°C and 1.46°C “above pre-industrial conditions”. There is a 10% chance of one of the years exceeding the Paris Accord target of 1.5°C above P-I.

The Met Office appears to be in step with the IPCC, accepting an 1850 start to industrial conditions and a minimum global average at the end of this year of 1.06°C. This figure, I think, is derived from the IPCC projection of a rise of global average temperature from one degree above pre-industrial in 2017 to 1.5°C in 2040, a straight line rise of 0.0217 degrees per annum.

If the Met Office is right and 1.5 is reached by 2024, the one chance in 10 odds that subsequent years will be as warm or warmer will shorten. How long will it be before every year has an average temperature “above Paris”? Well before 2040, possibly.

At the end of Week 9 this Meteorological Year, my five Northern weather Stations are running at 3.59°C above Pre-industrial. (Least warm is Rome at 1.99 and warmest Koltsovo at 7.52.)

The five Southern stations are much cooler. Rio de Janeiro is now 0.09°C BELOW Pre-industrial. Sydney’s running average increased from 1.21 to 1.52°C in the last 7 days. It is the only southern station in the “orange zone” (above Paris). The five together average 0.57°C above Pre-industrial, giving a 10 station global average of 2.08°C above P-I. This is a rate of warming for the year-to-date that is 47 times the IPCC projection. (The math is simple. The expected IPCC temperature at the end of the year is 1.0652 above P-I. Take this away from 2.08 and divide the result by 0.0217.)

I am quite taken by the difference between the hemispheres this year. Last year the South warmed more than the North.

9_WarmerDays2020

The North is getting a bit warmer and the South a little cooler. The 10-station Globe Warmer Days percentage is currently 52, amusingly the proportion of Brits that voted for Brexit in 2016.

At Eight Weeks

At the end of the first quarter of Meteorological Year 2018/19, the two hemispheres (each represented by 5 Weather Stations) were running Mean Temperatures above Pre-Industrial that differed by only one-hundredth of a degree Centigrade. North 1.31, South 1.32; rounding to a Global figure of 1.32 above P-I.

Things are very different this year. At the end of Week 8, four of the northern stations are in the “red zone” – more than 2°C above P-I. Rome is in the orange zone – above the Paris Target but below two degrees. They combine to yield a hemisphere average of 3.7°C above P-I.

8_NORTH_MeancfP-I

The biggest contributor to this increase in relative warmth is Koltsovo, the coldest of the five stations. (The daily mean there has crept above zero centigrade on just three of the 56 days.)

8_Koltsovo_MeancfP-I

The GFS 10-day weather forecast model shows a huge cold air mass moving east from Europe across the Federation – I’m expecting a dip over the next couple of weeks but it is a long way down to 2 degrees above P-I. It may take a Grand Solar Minimum to get it there by the end of the year.

Of course, returns from the thousands of other northern stations could bring my token average of 3.7C above P-I down to a figure that won’t frighten the horses. I have no way of knowing how representative my Ten Stations are. They could even be giving a false picture. These graphs should only be taken as an indication of what may be happening to global temperatures – and viewed in the context of current climate change hysteria.

After 8 weeks then, my North is running at 2.16°C warmer than the same period last year. My South is 0.7 degrees cooler. Putting the two together gives this chart of my “mini Globe’s” weekly differences, with a slight warming trend.

8_GlobeWkDiff20cf19

 

 

Winter Heat, Summer Chill

BBC Radio 4 News woke me this morning with the three top stories being about Climate Change. Not surprising, perhaps, when the guest editor of the Today Programme is Marmite Greta. (Disclosure: I love Greta.)

Four weeks into the new Meteorological Year and things are shaping up in interesting and surprising ways.

Last year ended with my five northern weather stations averaging a Mean Temperature of 1.08°C above Pre-Industrial, and the southern five 1.31 degrees. To bring my Pre-Industrial Baseline into closer alignment with that of the IPCC, I have added 0.15°C to these figures, recalculating my 10 stations “Globe” to an annual Mean of 1.35 degrees above P-I.

Australia has been receiving a lot of attention recently, because of the bushfires, and for a day or two, it was clearly the hottest place on earth. Another wave of heat is expected to roll in this week but Sydney’s running average of daily mean temperatures is currently lower this year than last. It is 1.17°C above P-I compared to the (revised) year-end 1.47 degrees.

Three other southern stations are running cooler than last year. Only Buenos Aires is warmer than at the same stage last year but only 0.48°C above P-I. Comparing this to the IPCC’s Projection to 1.5°C above P-I in 2040 yields a Warming Rate of minus 27. (After four weeks last year it was minus 85.)

It will take more than a month for temperature “patterns” to become settled. Daily variability anywhere on the earth’s surface can be huge. On Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, Koltsovo was 20 degrees centigrade warmer this year than last. Yekaterinburg is currently experiencing temperatures at 6.8°C above P-I. This equates to a Warming Rate 264 times higher than the IPC Projection. It isn’t sensible to compare the monthly change at just one place with the IPCC’s global monthly projection but, just for a lark, Koltsovo is currently warming 3,229 times faster than the whole world is expected to this month. But this rate could fall to a negative figure in a matter of weeks – especially when (if) the Grand Solar Minimum bites.

For now, only Washington DC is running cold in my northern hemisphere of five stations. It ended last year at 1.51°C above P-I and is currently 0.14 degrees BELOW Pre-Industrial. Rome is 3.3° above, Mumbai 2.99 and Shanghai 3.54.

One can boil the ten-station temperature data into any number of different graphs and charts but here are a couple for the infant northern winter and southern summer.

Wk4_MEANcfP-I_NSG

Wk4_MEANcfLastYr_NSG

Don’t be panicked by these graphs. My mini globe’s warming by 0.8 degrees C in four weeks, when the IPCC posits 0.5 degrees in 23 years, is obviously survivable – and subject to change. For now, though, it seems our world has turned upside down with the north being (relatively) warmer compared to last year and the south cooler.

Today’s Image…

…is rather frosty, as was yesterday’s. On 28 December 2016 the low temperature at Whitby was 0.6°C, and 6.23 degrees warmer than that this year. The low at Durham Tees a couple of days ago was a bit higher than Whitby, at 7.22 centigrade. Parts of the UK in the current “unseasonably warm” spell could reach a high of 16°C. The running average Mean for this month in Durham Tees is 2.07°C above P-I. At the same time last year it was 1.28, quite a drop from the first week’s 2.78 above.

Climate Change

from the BBC today:-

Mark Carney

Greta & Sir David

Australia

Massive Attack

Moscow

Two Weeks…

…into the current Meteorological Year, how much is the temperature rising at the Ten Stations?

The Northern Hemisphere has experienced warming that the IPCC isn’t expecting until 2095 – at 2.96°C above Pre-Industrial. Fortunately, the South is bang on the 1.06 degrees the IPCC projected at the end of the year. So in two weeks, the mini Globe has only warmed 38 times as quickly as the IPCC imagined.

The main driver of warmth in The Ten is Koltsovo. In Week 2 it was 4.51°C warmer than at the same time last year, 6.23 degrees above P-I and with a Warming Rate of x238. Eighteen hundred kilometres to the west, Moscow is having a similar experience.

Obviously, all the stations will have weeks of relatively low temperatures in the coming months (north and south) and who knows, by the end of the Met Year they will as a group be close to the IPCC Projection. They may even go below the projected 1.06 degrees. In some graphs I have seen online, the Grand Solar Minimum, the Maunder feel-alike, is expected to take up residence in 2020.

The mythical Sam Carana, at Arctic News, is nonetheless doubling down on his gloomy prognostications of human extinction by 2026. He makes a case for us all departing this life in the coming calendar year.

Extinction and “Global Warming is a hoax” are clearly poles apart. Speaking of which, the GFS 10 Day forecast on Climate Reanalyzer has the Arctic at 2.3°C warmer than expected today but falling to -0.6 a week from now. The Antarctic hovers around 1.6 to 2.0 degrees warmer for the coming 10 days and the World stays mostly within a range of +0.3 to +0.6 (14 to 28 times warmer than the IPCC bargains for.

Here are Week Two graphics for the Ten Stations in Two Hemispheres, plus Durham Tees.

Week2_NorthPlus

Week2_SouthPlus.jpg

Gathering the data and constructing the graphs takes me away from the main task of putting headstone photos on the FamilySearch Shared Tree, so I won’t be doing weather posts every week. I’ll perhaps do an update after each completed month, with an occasional Week Graph if it illustrates something extreme or unexpected. In the media in Week 2 much was made of the heatwave expected in New South Wales that would intensify the bushfires. Notice above that Sydney is roughly in the middle of the green Goldilocks zone. The daily high peaked at 108°F yesterday but fell to 79 degrees (26.11°C) today. Records in Oz may be broken again as summer progresses. Across the Tasman, Wellington was the only one of the southern five in the red. The New Zealand capital may not cool down any time soon.

Tinkering with Temperature

The radio alarmed me this morning with a report of the Met Office assertion that 2019 will have been yet another hot year, one of six this century where the global average has reached one-degree Centigrade above the “1850 to 1900 Pre-Industrial figure”. Thinking I may have misheard I checked online after breakfast. Under the headline Climate Change: Met Office says warming trend will continue in 2020 the BBC website offers this –

Next year will continue the global warming trend with temperatures again likely to rise more than one degree above pre-industrial levels.

According to the Met Office, 2020 will likely be 1.11C warmer than the average between 1850-1900. The year ahead is set to extend the series of the warmest years on record to six in a row…

The world first broke through one degree above pre-industrial temperatures back in 2015.

Well, emerging from my slumber, I had got the gist and have every reason to be alarmed. One degree! The shameless wool-pullers.

“The forecast for 2020 would place next year among the six warmest years on record, which would all have occurred since 2015,” said Dr Doug Smith, a Met Office research fellow.

“All of these years have been around 1.0C warmer than the pre-industrial period.”

As it happens, I have spent much of the last two days working on my Ten Station (and Durham Tees) temperature data. If you have read my earlier posts on this subject, you’ll know that my Industrial Revolution started a century or more before that of the Met Office/IPCC and that I plumped for a global temperature rise of 0.85°C between 1700/1750 and Meteorological Year 2017/18.

Only a few weeks ago I read the IPCC’s Report on future warming. This posited global warming of one degree C from the somewhat late Pre-Industrial to 2017, and a projection to 1.5 degrees in 2040. If this rise is a straight line rather than a “hockey stick”, the world will warm at 0.217°C each year for 23 years.

The date of the Industrial Revolution kicking off isn’t really an issue, but to bring my Weather Stations into line with this IPCC Projection I’ve tinkered – and raised all my temperature above Pre-Industrial figures by 0.15 degrees. So, if you check my previous Tables and Graphs against those I present in future, please don’t cry “error”, unless any differences are more than a bit above or below 0.15 degrees.

Here are the revised graphs for monthly Mean Temperatures above the revised Pre-Industrial Baseline (running averages) for the Ten Stations in 2018/19. (The five stations in each hemisphere have been given a rainbow colour according to their longitude, west to east.)

Northern5_MetYr1819

Southern5_MetYr1819

The Ten Stations make up a very small sample of those reporting around the globe, so there is every chance I have picked a bunch that are running anomalously hot. It may not be a concern that my Southern Hemisphere representatives have, in two years (from 2017), warmed to the IPCC’s 2038 level (1.465 degrees above P-I).

The Met Office seems to be in lockstep with the IPCC. I think they both have some explaining to do.

Four of my Stations have already warmed above 1.5°.

Washington DC: 1.5096

Koltsovo: 1.7251

Wellington: 1.6952

Rio de Janeiro: 1.8248

At 1.3495 degrees above the IPCC’s Pre-Industrial baseline (and now mine), my Ten Station Globe has warmed 14 times faster than the august body’s projection. We’ve reached 2033 already.

Go figure.