cooling

Snowmageddon

Also known as the Snowpocalypse, it has taken Texas by surprise. Green New Dealers are having some splainin’ to do and Global Warming skeptics are loving it. Perhaps the 200 year Little Ice Age is waiting in the wings. Here is today’s GFS/CFSR 2m Anomaly map of the USA.

You can run the 10-day animation if you go to Hourly Forecast Maps on the Climate-Reanalyzer Home Page. Much of Texas is expected to warm up on the 24th, and freeze again on the 26th.

Most of the Ten Weather Stations I monitor are returning cooler temperatures this year than last. We are just emerging from a short cold snap on the Yorkshire coast. At Week 11 of this meteorological year Durham Tees Mean Temperature data show this winter to be running 2.3°C cooler than at the same time last year. It was 1.53°C warmer last year than in 2019.

The current Durham Tees Mean Temperature is 0.49°C above the IPCC’s Pre-Industrial Global Average. This is 0.58 degrees BELOW the organization’s projection made in 2017. North-east England is now COOLING at 27 times the expected rate. Not to worry – last winter WARMED 70 times more than projected.

Sunrise 48 · Filey Sands

Distractions

Moving house is supposed to be one of the most stressful life events but I think the world turning upside down, inside out and back to front is the main reason I can’t get back into the old routine. I spend too many hours a day trying to understand what is going on around me.

I noticed this on Church Walk yesterday.

That’s Covid dealt with.

Now for the Climate Emergency. There seems to be agreement that 2011 to 2020 was the warmest decade in the “persistent long-term climate change trend”, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 the three warmest years.

We are almost half-way through the first quarter of the 2021 meteorological year and, if my Ten Stations are to be considered representative of the globe, change is in the air.

I am tracking the running average daily mean temperatures and comparing this year’s figures with the average for the four years 2018 to 2021.

At the end of Week 6 only four stations are warmer than the 4 year average. The 5-station hemispheres and 10-station globe are cooler this year-to-date. Of course, this could change for the warmer over the next 46 weeks. (I have thrown “local” station Durham Tees in for good measure.)

Note the stand-out cold place is currently Koltsovo but the Yekaterinburg district has experienced mean temperatures six degrees centigrade above pre-industrial recently, so when it comes to “warming rates” (averaged over the last four years) it still leads the pack.

An IPCC unit is the amount the mean temperature must rise each year to reach the Climate Change Panel’s projection of 1.5°C above pre-industrial by 2040. That my five southern stations are now contributing to a global cooling is interesting. Maybe there is no need for a Great Reset to address the Climate Crisis.

At the end of Week 6 this year, the 10-station global mean temperature is 0.09°C cooler than the IPCC’s projection made in 2017. This has now reached 1.0677°C above P-I, though Bloomberg suggests Earth burned through the 1.2 degree mark last year.

Abstract 64 · Glen Gardens

Heat

A few weeks ago we experienced the “greatest June heatwave in European history”. NOAA and NASA agreed that it was the warmest June since record-keeping began. Another European heatwave kicked off in the UK today. There is a small chance that 2019 will be the warmest year since 1880. (See Dr Jeff Masters July 18 post on Weather Underground.)

After 24 days without data, I was able to resume the monitoring of my Ten Weather Stations and Durham Tees today. The service resumed on the 9th of July. I have filled empty days with averages for three eight-day periods that I hope won’t compromise the month, season and year running averages. I’m sure all stations have the actual data and maybe Weather Underground will provide the missing figures eventually.

The temperature data stream dried up on 15 June, the end of Week 28 (Meteorological Year) and began flowing again midway through Week 32. Week 33 is the first “good” week after the resumption. Here is a Table showing what has happened at my Stations in the downtime. I don’t feel the figures are significantly compromised because they represent the running average of the Mean Daily Temperature, calculated weekly, from the beginning of December 2018.

MissingWeeks

Remember, these are Mean Temperatures above a Pre-Industrial Baseline calculated by deducting 0.85°C from the 10 Year Daily Average (2008/9 to 2017/18) for each Station. The Ten Stations in the Table have been ranked from warmest above P-I to coolest in Week 28. The main takeaway from this Table is that the “warmest” Stations are (mostly) cooling, and the “coolest” are currently warming.

Cool Runnings

In March, the warmest of my five Northern Hemisphere weather stations, Chhatrapati Shivaji International (Mumbai), recorded an average mean daily temperature of 27.71°C. The coldest station, Koltsovo, returned minus 1.88°C.

You may recall that I calculated a 10 Year Daily Average temperature for all ten weather stations using Weather Underground data for meteorological years 2008/9 to 2017/18. These daily figures can be readily aggregated to give weekly, monthly and seasonal averages, and finally annual results.

After some consideration, I decided that global temperature had risen by 0.85°C since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution – when mankind began emitting way more “greenhouse gases” into the air than before. It doesn’t really matter when industrial activity took off. I think I pinned it to 1709 or thereabouts. Neither is the 0.85°C figure critical. I recently heard a scientist acknowledge a rise of 1.0°C since 1880 – and he was from the school of carbon dioxide being “plant food”, playing no part whatsoever in the temperature rise. (See Jeff Masters for a different view of CO2.)

2019MARCHcf10yrWhatever, Mumbai last month recorded the greatest amount of cooling when compared to its 10 Year Average. And cold Koltsovo warmed the most. Go figure.

Now, please consider the Paris Agreement (or Accord) and add 0.85 degrees to the table figures. Quite by chance, the Northern Hemisphere is bang on the 1.5°C “red line” we should strive not to cross. And Koltsovo is beyond twice as hot as the 2°C figure that signifies the beginning of the end for humanity. It is fortunate that Koltsovo isn’t the globe.

For the following histogram, I have ordered the ten stations, hemispheres and globe so that March progresses from cool to warm when compared with the Pre-Industrial Baseline.

 

2019MARCHcfP-I

So, what has happened to Koltsovo since the beginning of this meteorological year? At the end of winter, the average daily MEAN temperature was 2.2°C above Pre-Industrial. March warmth has pushed the Koltsovo running average up to 2.75°C (2.34°C warmer than at the end of December) and nudged the Northern Hemisphere up from just 0.1°C warming since December 31st to 0.2 degrees. (Mumbai, Rome, Shanghai and Washington all conspired to bring down the North’s fever.)

Mainly thanks to a hot January in Rio, Sydney and Wellington, the Southern Hemisphere is currently at 0.32°C above Pre-Industrial and the Globe at +0.26 degrees.

There is nothing to fear. This meteorological year had a one in two chance of being warmer than the 10 Year Average. Four months in, it is warmer. By the end of November, it could well be cooler.

Anomalous warmth at the beginning of the met year in several of the 10 stations has guaranteed that both hemispheres are now showing a cooling trend. It is very small, only minus 0.01°C every two or three weeks (in the last two months or so).

There are, however, some worryingly hot spots on the planet – India (though not Mumbai) and the Arctic.

This is today’s picture of Arctic temperature anomalies from Climate Reanalyzer. Over the next ten days, the excess heat is forecast to drop from +6.8°C to +3.4°C.

April3_ArcticAnomaly_CR_grab

 

Brexit

Good luck to Ukraine if they vote in a Comedian President. The UK has over 600 jokers in Parliament, all risible and none funny. The Prime Minister of the regime and the “Leader” of the main opposition party are too daft to laugh at. I can’t say it better than Jeff Taylor and Carl Benjamin.