Waves of Covid

There is a lot going on in the world that we should be frightened about but the mysterious flu called Covid-19 is not one of them. Julia Hartley-Brewer and Professor Anthony Brookes chatted about it today on talkRADIO (11 minutes).

Here are a couple of graphs  based on Covid death totals available on Worldometer. Waves start when deaths attributed to Covid-19 reach 2% of expected daily deaths from all causes. The UK’s First Wave lasted 118 days  and Sweden took about 40 days longer to fall back below 2%.

The Second Wave in the UK has a way to go before it is worse than the First. (The ongoing rise has the look and feel of old normal seasonality about it.) The value of common sense and not locking a country down is illustrated by the Swedish experience.

Sunrise 45 · Filey Beacon

My Great Reset

In a few weeks I must flit.

To flit – move house or leave one’s home, typically secretly so as to escape creditors or obligations. Northern English.

My next home is rather small. I have to face the heartache of disposing of at least half of the “stuff” I’ve accumulated over the last thirty-five years. I will start chucking out and packing what survives the cull tomorrow. I should be able to continue posting a Filey photo each day but must put the family history to one side for a while.

If the blog “goes dark” for a few days, I’ll play catch-up when settled in my new home office.

It is very likely that this change of life will result in the blog shifting focus in some way. I’m not planning anything in particular but adapting to a “new normal” is something everyone is faced with now.

It is not all gloom and doom. If you have recently lost your business or job to Covid, there are opportunities being offered by MHRA (The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency). Protecting health and improving lives is booming, it seems. Access your inner boffin – you may be able to answer the following desperate call…

The emphasis has been added by UKC News (first segment in yesterday’s bulletin). This is a UK “government” request hiding behind an EU flag. Good luck, everyone.

Tree 53 · Red Oak

Quercus borealis, Glen Gardens

The Chuckle Brothers

They seem to delight in frightening the UK population to death-by-Covid.

UK Column News dealt with their prognostications in the opening segment on Wednesday.

If one removes all the over eighties who have died from the dread disease this year you will struggle to find a First Wave anywhere. But, taking the UK’s supposed Covid deaths from Worldometer, I concocted this chart.

I chose to begin the First Wave on the day Covid related deaths were more than 2% of those expected from all causes. (The expected daily figure being the World Bank 2018 total divided by 365.25.) The First Wave petered out when the daily percentage dropped below 2%. It had lasted 17 weeks.

I have used the same parameter for the beginning of the Second Wave. The Chuckle Brothers seem to be suggesting it will last longer and be far worse than the First.

The Second Wave in the UK is five weeks old and you can see that, so far, it isn’t very threatening. My projection for the 17 weeks has been calculated as follows:- First Wave daily percentage changes (up and down) have been aggregated to a weekly multiplier that has been applied to the first week of the Second Wave.

The projection line from Week 1 doesn’t rise above 10% of deaths from all causes but the actual Week 5 figure is 10.6%. In the last few days the numbers of people dying within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 have risen significantly and if they go as high as the Chuckle Brothers are suggesting the blue columns may be above the line for the next 3 months. (Of course, there is the normal winter flu to look forward to as well.)

More accomplished statisticians are keeping tabs on what is happening – and what “vested interests” are telling us is happening.

Wave 42 · Herring Hill

The Lie

I mentioned yesterday that the regime’s “case figures” were rubbish. Paul Weston says they are criminal. I’m convinced.

The near future is looking grim for much of the world’s population. The horrors are piling up. Returning from my morning walk and before I started “work”, I read Robin Westenra’s take on our current situation – Nothing Ever Goes Away.

I think I’ll take his advice and focus on one thing in the time I have left, “to the exclusion of everything else”.

Mark of Man 54 · The Reaper

Filey Surgery

Measure of Man 45 · Lock


Making Waves

The UK regime has convinced itself that a Second Wave of Covid-19 has started to build. To “save lives” it has decreed that Britons must be locked up again.

Spot the Second Wave…

This graph is deliberately bare bones. The line runs from 21 March to 21 September. It shows reported Covid-19 deaths each day (source Worldometer) as a percentage of expected daily deaths from all causes (World Bank 2018annual deaths divided by 365.25.) The wild peaks and troughs are a consequence of most weekend deaths being reported at the beginning of the following working week.

The debate continues but it is becoming clear that between 5 and 10% of people (in Any Country) who have died with Covid noted on the death certificate had no other health issues (comorbidities). You should, therefore, try to visualize a roughly Seven Percent First Wave.

UK citizens were asked to sacrifice their freedoms back in March to “flatten the curve”. They did their duty.

This graph from UK Column News shows how flat the curve may have been. Every death above the red dotted line has been caused, the Column argues, by the supposed “cure” and not the “disease”.

Imagining a Second Wave is one thing. Responding to its perceived threat with locking people up in their homes for six more months is another.

I look to Sky Australia to explain Covidmania to me. Today, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones were a great help. (The British Broadcasting Corporation is beaming its “news” from a planet that bears no resemblance to the one I inhabit.)

Here is Australia’s graph of the Covid Percentage of Expected Deaths.

No obvious First Wave yet but that hasn’t stopped the psychopaths implementing one of the most inhumane lock down on Earth. Cross your fingers that Aussie-style police brutality doesn’t infect your country. There were disturbing signs of it presenting in Trafalgar Square at the weekend.

The Misery of Six

Not more on the rocket boys  – but the legal requirement in England from Monday for no more than six humans to gather socially. All because of a steep rise in”cases” of Covid-19 infections.

Most people know by now that a positive PCR test for Covid means only that scraps of any old coronavirus have been found in swabs taken. The test cannot diagnose Covid-19 – a disease that is beginning to look increasingly mythical.

Assuming the disease is real and the numbers reported are believable they can be represented in a couple of ways.

Source: Office of National Statistics

The average figures are for the last five years in England and Wales. The cause of the spike is supposedly Covid-19. Notice how deaths have been running slightly below the average for a few weeks since the “pandemic” shot its bolt. Nothing to see here – for a while perhaps.

Source: Worldometer

For this chart the Expected Deaths have been estimated from World Bank 2018 figures, with 12,043 people departing each and every week. (I don’t have the data to assess seasonal variation for the whole of 2020.) The story is the same as for the line graph – the scamdemic is over. “Covid 19” is currently responsible for 0.4% of expected deaths in “any week”  of an old normal year.

There must be other reasons for the regime immiserating us with more restrictions and stolen freedoms. Dave Cullen has some ideas. And Dr. Sam in New Zealand bravely sticks her head above the parapet regarding masks and Covid vaccines.

Metal 14 · Tank

The Six Per Cent

The Center for Disease Control (CDC) in America has recently declared that 94% of the people with Covid on their death certificates had comorbidities. The disease caused by SARS-Cov-2 is the sole cause of death for the remainder. The United States deaths by “pure” Covid-19 therefore drop from the reported 188,900 (September 1st) to 11,344. The World death toll could be a little over 50,000.

Yesterday I gathered the final figures for my Eleven Countries so that I could produce some graphs for the  Northern Summer and Southern Winter. I will stay with the grossly inflated figures because I just want to point towards the End of Pandemic One – and at 6% the “picture” will look much the same.

On the Worldometer site you will find that all countries have a Deaths per Million figure. As deaths accumulate, this figure grows. But it grows at a varying rate from day to day in all countries and if this is taken into account the lines on a graph can go down as well as up.

For clarity I have split the Eleven into two groups.

I mentioned in an earlier post that New Zealand was “flat lining”. It’s plain to see here. The Casedemic in the UK is still driving lockdowns in parts of the nation but the pandemic is clearly over here – and in Sweden. India appears to have a problem but its death rate is growing from a low base. Australian deaths have sprung from virtually nothing. Most are in Victoria and can be laid at the door of government incompetence (regarding quarantine). Dictator Dan is far more dangerous than any virus. (Search online for “pregnant woman Ballarat”.)

Public Health England has its own illustrations of Pandemic One’s fading away. More information here.

And what of Pandemic Two? Covid-21 has probably been manufactured  already and is awaiting deployment. This delightful couple can’t hide their glee at the prospect of it being unleashed, because “it will get attention this time”. Threat? Promise?

Nature Morte 13 · Diver

Tidepool, Filey Sands

Something’s Not Right

Below is a Table of the number of people in my eleven selected countries who have died this year so far from (or with) Covid-19 disease, as a percentage of each country’s total population. The GLOBAL figure is total Covid related deaths up to 28 August divided by the World Population on Friday (source: Worldometer).

Nothing to fear here?

(New Zealand is flat-lining because nobody has died there from/with Covid since May 28. In three months an estimated 8,281 New Zealanders have died of something else. The regime has nonetheless gone “full fascist”. If you thought the unlucky country across the Tasman was under the jackboot…)

Time to push back.

The Duran

Anna Brees

Flight of Fancy 25 · Squaring the Circle

Country Park