Flatten the Curve

With the UK regime’s head honcho and his Minister of Health testing positive for Covid-19 today, and the Chief Medical Officer isolating himself with symptoms, the next few weeks may rise to another level of stupid. It appears from this afternoon’s briefing that other leading regime policymakers are not going to be tested for the virus because they don’t have symptoms of the disease. Wow. Asymptomatic super spreaders at the heart of what passes for government. What could possibly go wrong?

We, the bemused sheeple of the UK, are being told we are “two weeks behind Italy”. Across the Pond, the Great Leader expects to celebrate Easter and deliverance from the plague.

I am not double-checking the data I’m about to present. It is very obvious that accurate numbers for Covid-19 infections and deaths don’t exist anywhere. So there is no point putting in extra effort to make sure I haven’t made errors graphing bogus data. But suspect figures hastily gathered might still paint a useful picture.

I have taken predicted totals for infections and deaths from the Andology Prediction Tool, with countries given the same R0 (2.5), Mortality Rate (2%) and doubling time (7 days). For the first three or four months, all countries have the same weekly totals, until population totals diverge. These later differences don’t come into play here. Reported infections and deaths have been taken from Worldometers.

Italy’s Patient Zero surfaced on 29 January; the UK’s two days later. (You may find different first case dates given in other sources but I’m running with these.) The countries are not too far apart in population size: Italy 60.36 million, UK 67.74.

The first Covid-19 death was reported in Italy on 22 February and the UK’s first thirteen days later on 5 March. The graph below starts on the day Italy recorded its tenth death, 25 February.

ITALYvUK_CovDeaths

I’ve chosen to give the graph a log scale, so rather than flattening a curve please imagine bending a straight line downwards, as much as possible. The dotted prediction lines are slightly wavy but straight enough to indicate the exponential rise in deaths.

Although they crossed the infection start line almost together, Italy’s terrible death toll began quickly and rose at a greater than exponential rate. But its lockdown policy appears to be effective, bending the line in the last few days.

I’m not sure why the UK was slow to lose people, compared to Italy. The regime didn’t have any control from the outset. Recent reports have proclaimed that the “death rate” in the UK is greater than in Italy and this graph offers confirmation. Deaths are doubling every three or four days in the UK now. In the notional two weeks that we are behind Italy – that is four doublings. Yesterday, Italy’s death total was 8,215. The indications are that by Good Friday, the UK will have lost over 9,000 citizens to Covid-19. How much will the curve have been flattened, or the exponential line bent? Each one of us “ordinary folk” can make a useful contribution towards the recovery. We shouldn’t expect help, only hindrance, from those who rule over us. Amazing Polly explains.

A Little Bit Warmer

A prediction that the globe may warm by about a degree centigrade over the next few months because of reduced fossil fuel burning is still a reasonable bet. Last week, six of my Ten Stations were cooler than the week before, but by such small amounts that the “mini Globe” warmed by 0.008°C.

Seven of the stations were warmer in Week 16 than the week before. Going against the trend of the meteorological year so far, the southern hemisphere was warmer than the north (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline). The rise was 0.021°C. This may seem insignificant but it is an IPCC year’s worth of extra heat in the projection game.

Wk16_MeanIncDecr_10

Millions of locked down people have other things to worry about but there’s no escaping climate and environmental matters with Greta and Prince Charles catching Covid-19.

From a Distance

I jumped the gun with Yesterday’s Image. For several mornings the sky above the Bay had been wonderfully clean and free of scratches. This morning at 7.14 –

20200322PolarAirCargo

A Polar Air Cargo Boeing 747-45E(F), GT18521, heading from Frankfurt to Chicago. Playback on Flightradar 24 showed there was not much else up there.

Social Distance

Weatherwise, it has been a lovely weekend here and Brits have flocked to the nation’s beauty spots to have “we want to catch Coronavirus” picnics. Give it a week and happy wanderers may need to explain themselves to the police, or to one of the 20,000 or so military mustered to instil social discipline. Freedom to roam will soon be taken away from us if we don’t take the virus seriously.

How serious is Covid-19? Opinions differ wildly. It doesn’t help that the figures for infections and deaths from the disease cannot be trusted. But even discredited stats can produce charts, graphs and histograms that just might trigger a lightbulb moment.

Deaths from Covid-19 are under-reported in many countries – many being “hidden” behind the various comorbidities that afflicted the deceased or simply marked down to the winter ‘flu in the northern hemisphere.

Statistical models from various sources seem to be pointing to deaths in the millions globally. The virus prediction tool from Andology, primed with an “Rnought” of 2.5 and a mortality rate of 2% generates a UK death toll of about 600,000 by the end of June. I have summarily cut this down to 25,000 for this country and the other nine in the current Top Ten of most lethal nations. The histogram below shows how far along the road to 100 per cent of 25,000 deaths these nations are.

21Mar_TopTenDeaths

Italy will blow through 25,000 two or three weeks from now, and the UK around the middle of May. I’ll raise the “estimate” whenever necessary and keep an eye open for other countries breaking into the Top Ten. (Source: Worldometers.)

In the meantime, keep your distance.

 

Covid-19 Will Change the World

I hope to get back to some genealogy soon but most days now I wonder, what’s the point? This new disease threatens to take the lives of millions, break down the social order in many countries, collapse the world economy and start a global war. The psychopaths that rule us should have been more careful about what they wished for.

Adjusting my Andology Prediction spreadsheet to fit the official Chinese government infection and death figures makes no sense. “Real-world” numbers are probably at least ten times higher. One source suggests 50,000 may have succumbed to the disease already. At the 8th of February I have 216,000 infected and 37,000 dead. An Infection Rate (R0) of 4.00 and Mortality Rate of 15% will see Covid-19 burn out in the first week of April after infecting a  billion Chinese and killing 277 million. What price communism, civilized society and the economy surviving this?

My UK spreadsheet predicts 10 infections in three days time – and one death. So far, nobody has died. The disease will infect 84% of the population and claim lives until the middle of July, killing almost ten million in total. Given that there have been just eight people infected so far, these stats are unbelievable.

Passengers on the Plague Ship in Hong Kong have been freed but those in Yokohama are still quarantined. Only those on Diamond Princess testing positive for the virus have been taken ashore. None of those infected has died so far but there are now 135 of them. Yesterday my spreadsheet had 75 infected and three deaths. If the passengers and crew remain on the ship, 95% may become infected and 400 could lose their lives. Their ordeal is predicted to end in the middle of March.

The only value of this prediction tool is to give an idea of how bad things might become. To gain an understanding of how things are, I suggest a daily dose of Doctor John’s evidence-based elixir.