Something to Worry About #1

…The evidence the vaccination works is literally overwhelming, there’s no doubt about it at all. And by the way, Pfizer and Astra Zeneca are both excellent vaccines, as is Moderna and other vaccines. So you’ve got a situation where once you really take this out to people and say to them, look at the data, it’s clear, vaccination works, the absence of vaccination, your failure to get vaccinated doesn’t just put you at risk; this is what is important, in a way, if this were just a personal decision for people, and you get vaccinated, you don’t get vaccinated, that its you who suffers if you don’t. But it’s not you who suffers if you don’t, simply, it’s also other people. And there are people who are unvaccinated, they come into contact with people, even those who are vaccinated now, they can still transmit the disease, and if those people have got a serious underlying condition, they can actually die as a result of that. So, you know, I think I understand people’s objections but at some point you’ve got to say to people, look, the evidence, not just from Britain but from around the world, is crystal clear, there’s no serious person disputing it, and to get vaccinated is actually part of your, it’s almost part of your civic duty.

Tony Blair

It seems unwise for an organisation desperate to win hearts and minds to put a war criminal on Sky TV to do the job. Bliar (sic) is possibly the most despised politician known to Brits.

Here is a chart of data that you can find on Worldometer. As with everything Covidian, data accuracy isn’t guaranteed – but it is clear.

Deaths from respiratory illnesses are low during the summer (weeks 27 to 39) and begin to rise when autumn arrives. With enough imagination, one could list a number of explanations for the peculiar 2021 trajectory. One being “the vaccines don’t work” – in the sense of preventing infection, illness and death. (Gene therapies and injected operating systems are not vaccines.)   

Clouds 54 · Filey Bay

Safe and Effective

I haven’t looked at UK Covid deaths since the beginning of June and stopped listening to BBC News and its daily death cult announcements about the same time. Updating the spreadsheet comparing this year with 2020 offered a surprise.

Here is summer –

We didn’t have ”vaccines” last year, crowds couldn’t attend major sporting events, and perhaps there were fewer demonstrations against the tyranny. Information coming out of the Jabber’s Paradise (Israel) indicates that the “vaccines” don’t work as advertised. The chart above seems to indicate that. But would the unseasonal rise in deaths this year have been greater without the gene therapies? Or is the mysterious Delta Variant being superspread by the “vaccinated”? (Mysterious because there isn’t a test for the Delta Variant, and yet we are told it is now responsible for the majority of “cases”.)

September is the last month of the respiratory illness year. Things are not looking good for the UK in late autumn and winter. Lockdowns are a curse, bringing more misery, illness and death than the disease – but expect restrictions on liberty to be re-imposed. Soonish.

On 12 August the UK Yellow Card System had logged 1,151,768 adverse reactions and 1,596 deaths following “vaccination” against Covid 19. Unsafe then, but intentionally so it seems. Otherwise the “roll out” would have been halted long ago.

Mark of Man 71 · Agnus Dei

St Leonard’s, Speeton

The sins of this world need to be taken away. Soonish.

Death by Vaccine

The UK regulator has approved the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in children aged 12-15, saying it is safe and effective in this age group and the benefits outweigh any risks.

BBC

Ah, effective. We have been told the jabs are 90% or more effective – calculated from first trial data. But this is the flattering Relative Risk Reduction figure (RRR). The manufacturers don’t want you to know the Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR). In an article published in The Lancet this figure was 1.3% for AstraZeneca-Oxford, 1.2% for Moderna-NIH and 0.84% for Pfizer-BioNTech. I doubt millions would have clamoured for a shot in the arm if these numbers had been the ones promoted.

Another metric that is derived from the ARR calculations is the “number needed to vaccinate” (NNV) in the whole population.  For Pfizer-BioNTech this comes out at 117 people needing to be jabbed to prevent one unhappy encounter with Covid-19. Put another way, 116 people who receive a shot will gain no benefit from it – but will have to take a chance on an adverse reaction, up to and including saying a final farewell to loved ones (if allowed).

Every evening the BBC gives its listeners the day’s Covid numbers for positive PCR tests and deaths within 28 days of a test. I would be interested to hear a breakdown of the death numbers – into the vaxxed and unvaxxed. People do get Covid after being “vaccinated” and they also die. In the latest Yellow Card Report (run date 26/5/2021) the number of deaths associated with the jab is now 1,253. We will probably never know if the jab was the cause of death because it appears that these cases are not being investigated.

Although GPs and Hospitals in the UK should report all instances of adverse vaccine reactions it would undoubtedly affect Big Pharma’s bottom line if they did so. VAERS, the American equivalent to the UK’s Yellow Card, is said to be receiving reports of only one to 10 percent of reactions experienced by recipients of the Covid jabs. Some hospital management boards are forbidding nurses to document reactions. And many nurses and other frontline workers are refusing a mandatory jab, even when threatened with dismissal for so doing.

The UK Column’s presentation of Yellow Card data begins with the run on 7 February, by which time 326 deaths had been linked to AstraZeneca, Pfizer and “Unidentified” vaccines. (Moderna joined the list in mid-April). Yellow Card weeks are not all 7 days long but I have matched its offerings with those of Johns Hopkins Covid-19 deaths in the UK (Worldometer).

The figures are presented below, starting at UK Column’s Week 2 (8 to 14 February).

In Week 15, the split is 38% of deaths associated with the Jab and 62% with Covid-19. Attempts have been made to separate those dying with a positive PCR and no comorbidities The UK Column a while back presented a figure for such deaths from Covid which was, if I recall, about 25% of the total. I don’t know if the under-reporting of Adverse Reactions is as great in the UK as it is in the USA. A very rough calculation of deaths associated with the vaccines in each country as a percentage of total population suggests that reporting in the UK is about 30% higher. With these two indications in mind I have revised the death figures for the last fourteen weeks of available Yellow Card data, doubling the vaccine related deaths and cutting the reported Covid-19 deaths within 28 days of a positive PCR test by 25%.

Although these revisions are modest they raise the current share of vax related deaths to over 60%.

The UK Covid deaths have bottomed out for the summer but will surely rise again in the autumn going into winter. Deaths related to the vaccines are likely to rise too whether the rollout continues “successfully” or not.

The regime and its well-funded propaganda machine are not good with figures. The legacy media last weekend was reporting that “hundreds of people” had gathered in London for a Freedom March. The highest sensible estimate was “a million”. Why not take the average and say 500,000. A great crowd. More of us should just say No.

Insect 32 · Drinker

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

Google Alt-Text: A close-up of a bee.

Euthrix potatoria is an Eggar Moth and named for its larval habit of drinking water droplets on leaves. This one seen on the Cleveland Way (North Cliffs).

More Death

The MHRA Yellow Card data for Adverse Reactions to Covid-19 jabs are available on the UK Column website with a new graphs tab.

Numbers of Reports, Reactions and Deaths run from 2 February to 12 May – fourteen weeks but not all of them seven days in length.

Three “vaccine” makers are represented, plus “Unspecified”. Differences in the make-up of the poisons can be seen in the graph below showing the number of adverse reactions reported for each death logged. It isn’t known how many adverse reactions and deaths are not being reported by the NHS. The Yellow Card system may be recording only 10% of all reactions and deaths associated with the jabs.

The higher the number of reactions needed to kill a person the better.

Nature Morte 22 · Long Lane

Fledgling (unidentified)

Taking It in the Arm

Plucky Brits lined up today to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination against Covid-19 disease. It won’t make recipients immune, it won’t prevent them being asymptomatic spreaders. It will reduce their suffering if they become infected and some may not die from the disease. Time will tell how many will be killed by this or any other Covid vaccine.

The Sputnik 5 vaccine was “rushed out to wary Russians” three days ago. The BBC hasn’t forgiven Vladimir Vladimirovich for not poisoning the Skripals beyond all doubt, (it was just “highly likely”), and one of its journalists reporting from Moscow on Sunday couldn’t help getting a few digs in. She signed off saying that infections in Russia were “rising rapidly”. This may be true but it is dead people who matter when talking about Covid – and Russia has a long way to go to catch up with UK-level fatalities.

The UK “Second Wave” of Covid Deaths began (I decided) on 22 September but the rising number of fatalities took a while to impact the curve. Russia’s rise in Covid fatalities as a percentage of deaths from All Causes is noticeable but not pronounced.

A histogram of the UK’s two Covid Waves shows that the Second appears to have peaked in Week 10. In past “normal years”, the old flu would be preparing to make an entrance now, so it will be interesting to see if its victims are ascribed to the new kid on the block, presenting us with a Third Covid Wave that carries us beyond the 17 week duration of the First.

What difference will the vaccines make?

Measure of Man 48 · Country Park

The Strange Rise of Covid-19 Deaths

The UK regime isn’t alone in making a rod for its back, though its response to the pandemic has been particularly inept. Increasing numbers of “ordinary citizens” are beginning to smell the rats carrying a worse plague than Sars-Cov-2. Arriving here, there and everywhere sometime soon.

Quite recently, Brits were being frightened with a figure of 500,000 people killed by Covid-19 disease. This has now been reduced to 20,000. If that proves to be the final figure in the UK it will be no more deadly than the winter ‘flu. I can’t remember the regime throwing millions out of work for the ‘flu.

But, when I downloaded the Virus Prediction tool from Andology and made the modest assumptions of a reproduction rate (R0) of 2.5, a doubling time of seven days and a mortality rate of 2%, over 4.5 million Britons departed the Sceptered Isles by the middle of August this year.

Well, each infected person has clearly been passing the disease to six or seven people and the mortality rate could be as high as 10%. The death toll is doubling every four days. At these rates, we must surely be expecting ten million dead by the end of summer, not 20,000.

It is hard to get your head around. The Prediction Tool’s 4.5 million had a hidden assumption. That we would do nothing to fight the invisible enemy. But we are doing something. By regime diktat we are, most of us, sheltering in place or working from home. (To save our beloved NHS, which the regime has been selling off to private investors for years.)

So why is the death toll rising much quicker than the Prediction Tool suggests?

Here is a graph of the accumulating deaths in Italy and the UK in weeks 7, 8 and 9 of their pandemic experience.

CV19_Deaths_ItalyUK_1

The actual figures are taken from Worldometers. Week 17 in the UK ends on 4 June. Radio pundits today were expecting our death rate to peak in 10 to 14 days from now. Imagine the extra 4 million or so deaths between weeks 18 and 26. (With its lower population, Italy is predicted to have half a million fewer deaths than the UK.)

We’ll soon see if the curves flatten. It may take a while longer for the sales of pitchforks to ramp up.

Flight of Fancy 18 · Owl

3_20140403FenceFace1_m

Flatten the Curve

With the UK regime’s head honcho and his Minister of Health testing positive for Covid-19 today, and the Chief Medical Officer isolating himself with symptoms, the next few weeks may rise to another level of stupid. It appears from this afternoon’s briefing that other leading regime policymakers are not going to be tested for the virus because they don’t have symptoms of the disease. Wow. Asymptomatic super spreaders at the heart of what passes for government. What could possibly go wrong?

We, the bemused sheeple of the UK, are being told we are “two weeks behind Italy”. Across the Pond, the Great Leader expects to celebrate Easter and deliverance from the plague.

I am not double-checking the data I’m about to present. It is very obvious that accurate numbers for Covid-19 infections and deaths don’t exist anywhere. So there is no point putting in extra effort to make sure I haven’t made errors graphing bogus data. But suspect figures hastily gathered might still paint a useful picture.

I have taken predicted totals for infections and deaths from the Andology Prediction Tool, with countries given the same R0 (2.5), Mortality Rate (2%) and doubling time (7 days). For the first three or four months, all countries have the same weekly totals, until population totals diverge. These later differences don’t come into play here. Reported infections and deaths have been taken from Worldometers.

Italy’s Patient Zero surfaced on 29 January; the UK’s two days later. (You may find different first case dates given in other sources but I’m running with these.) The countries are not too far apart in population size: Italy 60.36 million, UK 67.74.

The first Covid-19 death was reported in Italy on 22 February and the UK’s first thirteen days later on 5 March. The graph below starts on the day Italy recorded its tenth death, 25 February.

ITALYvUK_CovDeaths

I’ve chosen to give the graph a log scale, so rather than flattening a curve please imagine bending a straight line downwards, as much as possible. The dotted prediction lines are slightly wavy but straight enough to indicate the exponential rise in deaths.

Although they crossed the infection start line almost together, Italy’s terrible death toll began quickly and rose at a greater than exponential rate. But its lockdown policy appears to be effective, bending the line in the last few days.

I’m not sure why the UK was slow to lose people, compared to Italy. The regime didn’t have any control from the outset. Recent reports have proclaimed that the “death rate” in the UK is greater than in Italy and this graph offers confirmation. Deaths are doubling every three or four days in the UK now. In the notional two weeks that we are behind Italy – that is four doublings. Yesterday, Italy’s death total was 8,215. The indications are that by Good Friday, the UK will have lost over 9,000 citizens to Covid-19. How much will the curve have been flattened, or the exponential line bent? Each one of us “ordinary folk” can make a useful contribution towards the recovery. We shouldn’t expect help, only hindrance, from those who rule over us. Amazing Polly explains.

From a Distance

I jumped the gun with Yesterday’s Image. For several mornings the sky above the Bay had been wonderfully clean and free of scratches. This morning at 7.14 –

20200322PolarAirCargo

A Polar Air Cargo Boeing 747-45E(F), GT18521, heading from Frankfurt to Chicago. Playback on Flightradar 24 showed there was not much else up there.

Social Distance

Weatherwise, it has been a lovely weekend here and Brits have flocked to the nation’s beauty spots to have “we want to catch Coronavirus” picnics. Give it a week and happy wanderers may need to explain themselves to the police, or to one of the 20,000 or so military mustered to instil social discipline. Freedom to roam will soon be taken away from us if we don’t take the virus seriously.

How serious is Covid-19? Opinions differ wildly. It doesn’t help that the figures for infections and deaths from the disease cannot be trusted. But even discredited stats can produce charts, graphs and histograms that just might trigger a lightbulb moment.

Deaths from Covid-19 are under-reported in many countries – many being “hidden” behind the various comorbidities that afflicted the deceased or simply marked down to the winter ‘flu in the northern hemisphere.

Statistical models from various sources seem to be pointing to deaths in the millions globally. The virus prediction tool from Andology, primed with an “Rnought” of 2.5 and a mortality rate of 2% generates a UK death toll of about 600,000 by the end of June. I have summarily cut this down to 25,000 for this country and the other nine in the current Top Ten of most lethal nations. The histogram below shows how far along the road to 100 per cent of 25,000 deaths these nations are.

21Mar_TopTenDeaths

Italy will blow through 25,000 two or three weeks from now, and the UK around the middle of May. I’ll raise the “estimate” whenever necessary and keep an eye open for other countries breaking into the Top Ten. (Source: Worldometers.)

In the meantime, keep your distance.

 

Grim

30200304GrimReaper1_6mI photographed him before catching the Scarborough bus this morning. He shows people arriving at Filey Surgery which way the wind is blowing.

Back at the ranch a couple of hours later, I learned that 35 more UK citizens had tested positive for Covid-19. My country had been “in the pink” until today. It seems likely that the Fifth Week (since Patient Zero showed up) will see exponential growth of infections become too obvious to ignore. Though people will still go to football and rugby stadia this weekend in their hundreds of thousands.

I should explain “in the pink”. I have chosen to follow the fortunes of 20 countries and one Plague Ship. One of my countries, Syria, has yet to report a confirmed infection. Argentina, Ireland, Nigeria and New Zealand have only recently become officially infected.

I have created spreadsheets using Andy’s Prediction Tool, giving every country and Diamond Princess the same parameters. The infection rate (R0) is currently estimated to be between 4 and 7. I am applying an “R nought” of 2.5 to all countries. The mortality rate claimed by countries is sometimes as low as 1%, (ten times greater than seasonal ‘flu) but I think South Korea has just stated its current rate is over 3%. (South Korea is the exemplar in the way it is dealing with the virus.) I have chosen to go with a 2% mortality rate. And a doubling time of 7 days. Some countries are seeing their numbers of confirmed cases and deaths doubling every three or four days. Today the UK’s reported infections rose over 50% in 24 hours.

Given my modest assumptions, it is disheartening that only eight countries are “in the pink”, with reported infections being fewer than predicted. The United States is one of these seemingly blessed countries – but its “government” has tested very few people for the disease so far, guaranteeing low returns. South Korea’s heavy testing gives totals that are more believable but puts the country deep “in the black”.

I’m still working on presentation but this will illustrate my terms.

20200304_SthKorUSAcovinf

In this same week, South Korea had 8 more “black deaths” than predicted and the USA 5 fewer.

It will be interesting to see how these two compare a month from now. I expect Mr Reaper to be far busier in North America, whether the US reports the death toll accurately or not.

Update (about 20 minutes later)

Dr John on today’s figures.

2019-nCoV

The novel Coronavirus hasn’t been given a snappy acronym yet, like MERS or SARS. I would favour a name like Mad Scientist Disease or BWF (BioWeapon Flu). Gates of Hell Syndrome has a ring to it. Watching videos of people falling dead in the street in China, or vomiting blood on public transport, is very upsetting. How much worse is it going to get?

I downloaded the coronavirus prediction tool from Andology this morning. It is an Excel spreadsheet in which you can insert country-specific values for the following Assumptions:-

Starting Population

Start Date (Patient Zero)

Initial Infections

Infection Rate (R0)

Incubation Time (Days)

Mortality Rate

Mortality Complicator

Virus Burnout Rate

If you like messing around with spreadsheets you may find this one a joy to use – the pleasure obviously tainted by observing the deaths of millions of people.

I “modelled” China first. There is a suspicion that the Chinese Government is under-reporting infections and deaths but my first set of Assumptions generated much lower figures than those published to date. Adjusting R0 and Mortality Rate brought 450 predicted deaths to 5 February (494 reported), but these derived from only 2744 infections (24,447 reported). I will play around with the assumptions to see if I can bring predictions and reality closer together and thereby get a better idea of the final death rate when the virus burns out.

Each country infected will have a different journey over the spikey bell curve of rapidly increasing illness and death and an equally precipitous fall to zero infection in the population.

I applied the China assumptions to the UK (just two infected people so far) and was surprised that the virus died at about the same time – mid-June this year in China and a couple of weeks later in the UK. In around six months my models predict 392 million Chinese deaths and almost 10 million Brits and Northern Irish. As we wait in the UK for the novel coronavirus to claim its first victim, this outcome seems unlikely.

But the exponential growth of anything bad is the stuff of nightmares.

CHINA_Coronavirus1

With my set of amateurish assumptions, China will lose 27% of its population and the UK 14%. That’s 42% of those infected in China and 16% in the UK. The R0 and initial assumed Mortality Rate are the same for both countries (3.7 and 10%). I’m not clever enough to figure out this difference in the final outcome.

I hope things work out much better than this – but it could possibly be worse. Deaths resulting from the possible collapse of the global economy and social breakdown worldwide have to be factored in somehow.

2020 was going to be an interesting year without this.

Another name for novel coronavirus – WuFlu. You can also keep up with developments at Johns Hopkins. And if you download the prediction tool from Andology you can get up-to-date population figures at Worldmeters.