Covid-19 Will Change the World

I hope to get back to some genealogy soon but most days now I wonder, what’s the point? This new disease threatens to take the lives of millions, break down the social order in many countries, collapse the world economy and start a global war. The psychopaths that rule us should have been more careful about what they wished for.

Adjusting my Andology Prediction spreadsheet to fit the official Chinese government infection and death figures makes no sense. “Real-world” numbers are probably at least ten times higher. One source suggests 50,000 may have succumbed to the disease already. At the 8th of February I have 216,000 infected and 37,000 dead. An Infection Rate (R0) of 4.00 and Mortality Rate of 15% will see Covid-19 burn out in the first week of April after infecting a  billion Chinese and killing 277 million. What price communism, civilized society and the economy surviving this?

My UK spreadsheet predicts 10 infections in three days time – and one death. So far, nobody has died. The disease will infect 84% of the population and claim lives until the middle of July, killing almost ten million in total. Given that there have been just eight people infected so far, these stats are unbelievable.

Passengers on the Plague Ship in Hong Kong have been freed but those in Yokohama are still quarantined. Only those on Diamond Princess testing positive for the virus have been taken ashore. None of those infected has died so far but there are now 135 of them. Yesterday my spreadsheet had 75 infected and three deaths. If the passengers and crew remain on the ship, 95% may become infected and 400 could lose their lives. Their ordeal is predicted to end in the middle of March.

The only value of this prediction tool is to give an idea of how bad things might become. To gain an understanding of how things are, I suggest a daily dose of Doctor John’s evidence-based elixir.

Prison Ship

The cruise ship Diamond Princess, quarantined in Yokohama for the next couple of weeks, has about 3,700 people on board. The vessel looks impressive but those confined to inside cabins must feel as if they are not just doing time but have been sentenced to death. Everyone knows how unhealthy cruise ships can be. Forty new cases of novel Coronavirus were declared today, tripling the number of infected.

The World Dream, a cruise ship in Hong Kong with a similar complement of human cargo, has so far had no positive test results. In New Jersey, a small number of passengers on the Anthem of the Seas has been screened and four taken to hospital for further tests.

Whether you consider Diamond Princess a modern prison hulk or a giant petri dish, it is perfect for modelling.

I have logged patient zero’s appearance on 20 January, though he had left the vessel just before that date in apparent good health. The incubation period for this coronavirus is 5 to 14 days, with 6 or 7 days seeming to be commonly accepted now. I have plumped for 7 days. To arrive at a Total Infected figure approximating 61 today, and no fatalities, I have had to set an R0 of 3.9 and a low mortality rate of 1%. In three days from now, this model predicts 75 passengers/crew infected and three deaths.

The good news is – the virus will burn out in just over a month. The bad – 404 people may have died by then.

There haven’t been any fatalities yet from the Princess but if the reality matches this projection it may validate the tool and make my country projections seem more believable. (I really can’t imagine 10 million UK citizens succumbing to the virus before mid-summer.)

A new country has been added to the list on the Johns Hopkins map – called “Others”, it currently comprises just the Diamond Princess. It is the hardest hit “country” of the 28 outside Mainland China.


Model: Andology Novel Coronavirus Prediction Tool.