Sydney Bucks the Trend

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Sydney’s warm week raised its Mean Daily Temperature running average – only by 0.3ºC but nonetheless confounding the 9-month trendline.

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Northern England turned chilly, though not as much as Koltsovo, Shanghai and Buenos Aires. Without Sydney’s contribution of warmth, the southern hemisphere would have equalled the north’s cooling. The globe, as represented by the Ten Stations, saw its running average drop 0.3ºC in Week 40. If Sydney returns to its cooling trend and falls to a yearly average of 1.19º above (my) Pre-Industrial baseline at the end of November, that will still represent a 0.34ºC rise above the Ten Year (2009 to 2018) average.

Dorian

The monster hurricane caused terrible devastation in the Bahamas and, if Puerto Rico’s experience is anything to go by, the people in the worst affected islands will wait a long time for the assistance they need to rebuild communities.

Questions are being asked about the odd behaviour of the storm. Georgia and the Carolinas received a battering – but it could have been worse. And maybe it need not have been as bad as it was for Bahamians.

Dorian is over the Gulf of St Lawrence as I write, and the west coast of Ireland and the Scottish Isles may feel his breath on Tuesday when computer models are showing the storm centre tracking over Iceland.

The Heatwave

This part of the UK was relatively warmer last week than any of my Ten Weather Stations. (Relative, that is, to the 2009 to 2018 average, and by extension to my version of a Pre-Industrial baseline.)

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With the arrival of meteorological Autumn in the northern hemisphere I’ve changed the main chart in the weekly look at one of the Ten Stations (and Durham Tees). Rather than considering the last ten weeks, I’m offering the running average of the Mean Daily Temperature above Pre-Industrial from January to the latest completed month, with a Trendline to the end of the Met Year. I’m noting the end-of-year temperature expected from the trend and wonder how much different the actual figure will be, for each of the stations, the hemispheres and the globe (as represented by the Ten).

(I have deliberately excluded December from this series because at several stations the Met Year began with some extreme temperatures, which made trend forecasts appear unrealisable. I don’t put any “faith” in the forecasts themselves but I’m hoping the actual figures in the next three months might indicate either continuing warming or solar minimum cooling setting in. I still haven’t found a reliable canary.)

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Remember, my weeks run from Saturday to Friday, so it was Monday in Rome that was relatively chilly. The actual high that day was 84ºF, 28.9ºC and the Mean 75ºF, 23.9ºC. The Met Year running Mean was 0.96ºC colder than the Ten-Year running average for that day, hence the 0.11ºC below Pre-Industrial figure.

Dorian is the Monster of the Week, right now up to a Cat 5 and battering the Bahamas. Models are showing a turn to the north tomorrow and Tuesday, perhaps reprieving Florida. The Carolinas could bear the brunt but there seems to be a possibility of the hurricane losing strength as it heads north-east over the sea. Fingers crossed.

Robin Westenra has posted that New Zealand is expected to have a cold start to its spring. I trust my Wellington Airport temperatures will reflect the forecast – if it proves to be correct.