The 3-year moving average for the season is similar to December (last Saturday’s post).
“Old” values are the same as “New” for the years 2001 to 2008 and 2019 to 2023. They are different for the ten years I downloaded from Weather Underground which were averaged and docked one-degree Centigrade to provide my first pre-Industrial baseline. The old values, in whole degrees Fahrenheit, are not available now.
The scandalous rise in temperature occasioned by offering figures to one decimal place was explained on Saturday. When the ten-year extremes are bundled with the other thirteen years, the difference drops from 0.49°C to 0.2° degrees, thereby jumping just 40% along the road to the “Paris target” rather than going almost the whole way in one leap.
However, it can’t have escaped notice that some of my pre-Industrial years coincide with the dip in the 23-year trend. I am going to create a 20-year average, from 2001 to 2020, to form a new baseline. In cahoots with the “new figures” rise, future mean temperatures above pr-Industrial may look quite different to those I have posted in the past. But climate catastrophe and net zero are looking more like conspiracy theories with each passing day. Nothing stays the same.
One takeaway from today’s chart is that the ten warmest UK years since records began – all occurring since 2003 – are being rather coy. Maybe it is a northern England thing. The picture may be very different at the close of this meteorological year, should we get that far.
Before last December ended, the UK Meteorological Office was declaring 2022 was the hottest year the nation had experienced since records began (about 150 years ago). My Durham Tees downloads of mean daily temperatures began in December 2008 so I decided to add the station’s data for meteorological years 2000/2001 to 2007/2008. At the risk of causing confusion, I will be giving each ‘met year’ from the beginning of the century to the present just one identifying date with clarification if I introduce calendar years.
Before last December ended, the UK Meteorological Office was declaring 2022 was the hottest year the nation had experienced since records began (about 150 years ago). My Durham Tees downloads of mean daily temperatures began in December 2008 so I decided to add the station’s data for meteorological years 2000/2001 to 2007/2008. At the risk of causing confusion, I will be giving each ‘met year’ from the beginning of the century to the present just one identifying date with clarification if I introduce calendar years.
(I have checked the difference Decembers make when the annual means of calendar and meteorological years are compared. For the 20 years from 2001 to 2020, the range was 0.28 to -0.52 degrees Centigrade, indicating that some Decembers were more influential than others. After twenty years, the running average difference between Cal and Met is infinitesimal. ).
(I have checked the difference Decembers make when the annual means of calendar and meteorological years are compared. For the 20 years from 2001 to 2020, the range was 0.28 to -0.52 degrees Centigrade, indicating that some Decembers were more influential than others. After twenty years, the running average difference between Cal and Met is infinitesimal. ).
The Met Office has told us that the ten warmest years have occurred since 2003. Here are the Decembers…
All columns are based on “revised” data. See below.
When I first downloaded temperatures from Weather Underground, they were in whole degrees Fahrenheit. It wasn’t until around 2019 that they were suddenly offered to one decimal place, with earlier years revised. I welcomed the increased granularity and it didn’t occur to me to compare the “new” week, month, season and annual averages with the old. It seemed a no-brainer that 365 daily mean temperatures might range from n-0.5 to n+0.49 in a random fashion and the annual average would end up much the same as before. I kept my original pre-Industrial baseline, based on a 10-year daily average in “old” numbers centigrade, minus one degree. Around 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) opined that Global temperature had warmed by this amount since the Industrial Revolution picked up steam. A target was set – to prevent the Global Mean temperature from reaching 1.5° C above pre-Industrial by 2040.
It is common propaganda now that 8 billion human beings are facing a climate crisis and everyone except the elites must get used to making sacrifices if a disaster is to be avoided. (I can’t imagine them living in 15 Minutes Cities.) Well, December temperatures in North Yorkshire have been falling for the last seven years and I thought I should run a check on the ten years of data from December 2008 to November 2018.
Consider a mean temperature of exactly 50° F. Two extreme figures, 49.5 and 50.499, will round up and down to bang on the wholesome 50. My increasingly enfeebled brain tells me that revising 365 days of whole Fs to a more accurate one decimal place should not change the annual average by more than 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.28°C) in a worst-case scenario. Common sense tells me that the annual difference will be much less than this, let’s say plus/minus 0.2°F or 0.11°C.
My December findings…
Instant human-caused Durham Tees warming! Is the Paris target already under threat? It doesn’t matter if this corruption of temperatures has occurred in every weather station around the globe. They are lying to us. Refuse to eat insects.
The UK is experiencing near-record December temperatures and the 10-Day Hourly Forecast Map on Climate Reanalyzer shows the warmth is shared by most of Europe. At noon on New Year’s Day…
Four weeks into the 2021/22 Meteorological Year, the Weather Station at Ciampino (Rome) indicates Daily Mean Temperatures are running 12 times higher than the IPCC’s projection to a Global 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial by 2040. Rome is 1.35 degrees above P-I and North East England (Durham Tees) 0.2 degrees warmer still. Top of the charts of Ten Stations I monitor is Koltsovo (Yekaterinburg), 5°C above Pre-Industrial and currently warming 182 times faster than the IPCC suggests is unhealthy.
Below are two tables for Week 4 showing the Average Warming Rate for the years 2017/18 to 2020/21 and this year’s figures.
Signs, perhaps, that the Solar Minimum has its eye on the Southern Hemisphere.
Durham Tees Airport is about 70 miles from Filey but closer Stations providing data to Weather Underground became unreliable after a while.
In the beginning I arrived at a Pre-Industrial baseline by averaging ten meteorological years of daily mean temperatures (2008/9 to 2017/8) and adding 0.85°C – on the assumption that a global rise of this amount could be reasonably applied. In 2018 the IPCC declared that Earth had warmed by 1°C between the start of the Industrial Revolution and 2017, so I altered my spreadsheets “to fit”. Yesterday, I menioned my wheeze of an “IPCC Unit” – the amount the temperature must rise annually to the end of November 2040 to reach the “Paris Target” of 1.5 degrees above Pre-Industrial. Ignoring pesky 366th days gives a daily rise of 0.0000596°C. By the end of Week 46 of this meteorological year my version of the globe has therefore notionally warmed to 1.08442 degrees above Pre-Industrial.
Three days ago Durham Tees was running at 1.77°C above P-I. At the beginning of summer (Week 26) this figure was just 1.06°C. Last year, summer began at 2.34°C above P-I and cooled to 1.8 degrees.
In 2014 it was warmer still at Week 46, reaching the dreaded 2°C. To be more exact,1.997 degrees, and rising further to 2.05°C by the year’s end. Fortunately, there have been enough cool years since 2008 to bring the above Pre-Industrial average down to a comfortable level.
Accepting a one degree above P-I figure for all years from 2008 to 2017, and then going with my interpretation of the steady rise to the IPCC’s 2040 projection gives the following graph.
Two calculations –
1.7711-1.08442÷0.02174=31.6
1.132-1.08442÷0.02174=2.2
So, this meteorological year is currently running31.6 times warmer than the IPCC projection.
But if 14 years of Warming are averaged the Rate falls to just 2.2. Nothing to see in North East England then. Hot air blowing down from Glasgow in a couple of weeks can be ignored. There are too many other things to worry about.
Last week I posted a chart showing Mean Temperatures above Pre-Industrial for the six northern and five southern Weather Stations I am monitoring. Seasonal warmth relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline was greatest in Mumbai and least in Cape Town. Below is a graph showing the experience of both places in the 2021 Meteorological Year so far. I have used Warming Rate figures because, being finer grained, they make the differences between the two places clearer. (My IPCC units are probably proprietary – I haven’t seen them used anywhere else. One unit is the rise in mean global temperature each year if 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial is to be reached in 2040, from the one degree posited at the end of 2017.)
One IPCC unit is equivalent to 0.02174°C and three years 7 months have passed since the end of November 2017. At Week 29 of the 2021 meteorological year the IPCC projection has reached a global figure of 1.07733 degrees above Pre-Industrial. Cape Town is doing us all a service by being well below the global average. For the year to date, however, Sydney is currently the coolest of my eleven stations. The running mean temperature there has been dropping steadily since December, whereas Cape Town it is rising.
I used a Ten Year average mean temperature for each weather station to establish a Pre-Industrial baseline (Met Years 2008/9 to 2017/18). Below is a Table to show the relationship between mean temperatures, IPCC units and mean temperatures above Pre-Industrial. It may seem rather excessive to show these to five decimal places (except for the Warming Rate in IPCC units) but I’ll do it just this once! (The default order of the Weather Stations is west to east, north then south with my local station, Durham Tees an added extra to the Ten Station “study”.)
You will have to take on trust my Mean Running Temperatures for the 10 Years and 2021 but you may find it fun to do your own math to arrive at the current temperatures above Pre-Industrial and the “Warming Rates”. The P-I colour coding is simple – red for Danger (2°C and over), orange for above Paris but below 2°C, green for Goldilocks, (not too warm, not too cold). I have highlighted Koltsovo’s running mean temperature – over half way through the year and it is still in the blue.
Another perspective on this year’s temperatures-to-date is to compare them with 2020 at Week 29.
That Koltsovo is 3.73°C cooler than last year is quite staggering but four of the stations are warmer, reducing the Global 10 figure to just a little over half a degree. There are thousands of other weather stations reporting so there is no telling if these figures indicate the onset of the expected Grand Solar Minimum.
April seemed unusually cold on the Yorkshire Coast, and May cold and wet. But the mean temperature data from the Durham Tees weather station indicates the season was actually a tiny bit warmer than the average for the last thirteen years.
It was maybe the seemingly relentless wind that chilled us.
Note the trend line in the above chart. Perhaps north-east England is anomalous because a Government Report out this month tells us we should not just be afraid of catching ‘flu. (Gee, I hope I don’t get a Delta Variant runny nose.) UK Column extracted a quote from the Report for their bulletin yesterday.
You may recall that the IPCC claimed in 2017 that the global average temperature had increased by one degree centigrade since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and projected it would reach 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial by 2040.
Taking the running average mean temperatures from the start of the current meteorological year, two of the five northern hemisphere weather stations I monitor (other than Durham Tees) were well above the dreaded 2°C by the end of Spring. Mumbai at 2.66 and Shanghai 2.42. Koltsovo, which has been very warm over the last few years, has cooled to a smidgen over the “Paris Target” of 1.5°C. Four of the five southern hemisphere stations have been quite cool throughout their autumn, with Cape Town being only 0.47 degrees above P-I. The 10 stations representing the Globe average 1.23°C above Pre-Industrial. If one gives each day since the end of November 2017 an equal bite of the 0.5°C rise to 2040, the projected global temperature at the end of Q 2 this year is 1.08 degrees. My Ten Stations collectively are therefore warming seven times faster than projected. Durham Tees is cooling by a little less than one “IPCC Unit” (0.02174°C per year).
Returning to Durham Tees, below is a graph showing the progression of mean temperature above Pre-Industrial through the warmest spring of the last 13 years, the coolest, and for the last three years.
This clearly shows that April and May this year were indeed chillier than March but in following 2019’s trend the season ended up distinctly average.
England hasn’t had such a cold April for almost a hundred years, and I think Scotland was chillier last month than at any time “since records began”. The Met Office serves up sunshine and precipitation figures with UK temperatures here.
Durham Tees weather station posted a month mean a couple of degrees centigrade above the UK April average – mainly because it didn’t share Scotland’s experience. It was 2.7°C colder than the 2009 to 2020 average minimum and so accords with the Met Office’s anomaly map for the four nations. But 2021 wasn’t the coldest April of the thirteen years for which I have data. 2012 was 0.68 degrees cooler. All that sunshine last month had an impact after the frosty early mornings.
April, though, is the fifth month of the meteorological year and the running mean from the first of December, in the guise of Temperature Above Pre-Industrial, reveals Durham Tees is quite a bit warmer in 2021 than the IPCC Paris Accord projection. There has been a 0.2°C fall in the month but at 1.42°C above Pre-Industrial on the 30th, Durham Tees is 0.34 degrees warmer than it should be if the 2040 Paris limit is not to be breached. Those trendlines in the graph above are misleading.
Below is a graph indicating April’s mean temperatures above/below Pre-Industrial from 2009 to 2021. Most years are “grayed out” to avoid confusion. Only the warmest and coolest years at the end of April are highlighted, with 2021 emphasized. The average Temperature above Pre-Industrial for the 13 years (2009 to 2021) is 1.17°C. This is about 0.1 degrees above the IPCC projection indicating a warming rate four times greater than expected. 2021 is currently running about sixteen times warmer than the IPCC’s projection (offered in 2017). Not to worry. The Grand Solar Minimum/Little Ice Age is on the way.
Yesterday was the warmest March day in the UK for 53 years, falling 1.1°C short of the record high of 25.6°C measured at Mepal, Cambridgeshire in 1968.
The current meteorological year is, however, running noticeably cooler than last year in the north-east of England.
In marked contrast, 2020 was warmer than 2019 throughout the year.
At the end of Week 17 this meteorological year, the Mean Temperature was running 0.87°C cooler than 2020. At the same point last year, the running Mean Temperature was 0.59°C higher than in 2019.
I am in the process of refining my calculations of Mean Temperature above Pre-Industrial. Durham Tees at Week 17 in 2019 was 1.75°C above Pre-Industrial; in 2020 it was 2.36 degrees above P-I and this year it is 1.51 degrees above. If you take into consideration that warming must proceed at a rate of 0.02174°C each year to reach the IPCC’s “Paris Limit” of 1.5 degrees above P-I in 2040, these calculations are consistent with the comparison figures in the previous paragraph.
With just a week of Meteorological Year 2020 to go, the Mean Weekly Temperature recorded at Durham Tees Airport is running 1.07°C higher than last year.
At Week 51 in 2019 this part of England was showing a “negative warming rate” of -16 IPCC units when compared to the Paris Accord global projection of 1.04°C above Pre-Industrial at year end (rising to 1.5°C in 2040). This meteorological year, Durham Tees has warmed 31 times faster than the IPCC projection.
2020 on the Yorkshire coast has seemed unremarkable weather-wise, but 58% of Durham Tees days have been warmer than last year.
Influenza is real, and so is climate change, but only tyrants are using both as sticks with which to beat us. Submit or resist. There doesn’t seem to be a middle way.
After a cold start, my small sample of five northern hemisphere weather stations developed a fever, the running average weekly mean ending the season 2.51°C warmer than the same period last year.
At Week 13 last year, Washington DC, Rome, Mumbai, Koltsovo and Shanghai were, together, running at 1.31°C above their Pre-Industrial baseline. Adding the aforementioned difference gives a Winter average of 3.52°C above P-I. After the chilly first week, the rise was at first steep and then steady.
Under normal circumstances, this rise cannot be expected to continue through the northern Spring. However, the new coronavirus has cleared the skies above China of so much filth that Shanghai may get warmer still. Perhaps the other four stations will cool.
North-east England followed The Five – but less enthusiastically. At the end of this winter, Durham Tees was a mere 0.9°C warmer than the previous year.
Weeks 9 to 11 were not as warm as this graph makes them appear. There was a bit of a cold snap in the corresponding period last year.
This corner of England cooled markedly over the next nine months of 2019, ending the year at just 0.55 degrees centigrade above Pre-Industrial. A similar decline this year will bring us close to the Paris Target.
As mentioned in earlier weather posts, the southern hemisphere Summer has been much cooler this year at the Five Stations. I’ll share the figures and graphs next week.
Today’s Image
Five years to the day after photographing him on Muston Sands, I bumped into Angus this morning in Crescent Gardens. I was perhaps rude to ask the elderly gentleman’s age – he’s fourteen now and still very active.
Looking at Filey REDUX 