Mumbai & Cape Town

Last week I posted a chart showing Mean Temperatures above Pre-Industrial for the six northern and five southern Weather Stations I am monitoring. Seasonal warmth relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline was greatest in Mumbai and least in Cape Town. Below is a graph showing the experience of both places in the 2021 Meteorological Year so far. I have used Warming Rate figures because, being finer grained, they make the differences between the two places clearer. (My IPCC units are probably proprietary – I haven’t seen them used anywhere else. One unit is the rise in mean global temperature each year if 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial is to be reached in 2040, from the one degree posited at the end of 2017.)

One IPCC unit is equivalent to 0.02174°C and three years 7 months have passed since the end of November 2017. At Week 29 of the 2021 meteorological year the IPCC projection has reached a global figure of 1.07733 degrees above Pre-Industrial. Cape Town is doing us all a service by being well below the global average. For the year to date, however, Sydney is currently the coolest of my eleven stations. The running mean temperature there has been dropping steadily since December, whereas Cape Town it is rising.

I used a Ten Year average mean temperature for each weather station to establish a Pre-Industrial baseline (Met Years 2008/9 to 2017/18). Below is a Table to show the relationship between mean temperatures, IPCC units and mean temperatures above Pre-Industrial. It may seem rather excessive to show these to five decimal places (except for the Warming Rate in IPCC units) but I’ll do it just this once! (The default order of the Weather Stations is west to east, north then south with my local station, Durham Tees an added extra to the Ten Station “study”.)

You will have to take on trust my Mean Running Temperatures for the 10 Years and 2021 but you may find it fun to do your own math to arrive at the current temperatures above Pre-Industrial and the “Warming Rates”. The P-I colour coding is simple – red for Danger (2°C and over), orange for above Paris but below 2°C, green for Goldilocks, (not too warm, not too cold). I have highlighted Koltsovo’s running mean temperature – over half way through the year and it is still in the blue.

Another perspective on this year’s temperatures-to-date is to compare them with 2020 at Week 29.

That Koltsovo is 3.73°C cooler than last year is quite staggering but four of the stations are warmer,  reducing the Global 10 figure to just a little over half a degree. There are thousands of other weather stations reporting so there is no telling if these figures indicate the onset of the expected Grand Solar Minimum.

Mark of Man 62 · Filey Beacon

Filey Sands

Northern Spring, Southern Autumn

April seemed unusually cold on the Yorkshire Coast, and May cold and wet. But the mean temperature data from the Durham Tees weather station indicates the season was actually a tiny bit  warmer than the average for the last thirteen years.

It was maybe the seemingly relentless wind that chilled us.

Note the trend line in the above chart. Perhaps north-east England is anomalous because a Government Report out this month tells us we should not just be afraid of catching ‘flu. (Gee, I hope I don’t get a Delta Variant runny nose.) UK Column extracted a quote from the Report for their bulletin yesterday.

You may recall that the IPCC claimed in 2017 that the global average temperature had increased by one degree centigrade since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and projected it would reach 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial by 2040.

Taking the running average mean temperatures from the start of the current meteorological year, two of the five northern  hemisphere weather stations I monitor (other than Durham Tees) were well above the dreaded 2°C by the end of Spring. Mumbai at 2.66 and Shanghai 2.42. Koltsovo, which has been very warm over the last few years, has cooled to a smidgen over the “Paris Target” of 1.5°C. Four of the five southern hemisphere stations have been quite cool throughout their autumn, with Cape Town being only 0.47 degrees above P-I. The 10 stations representing the Globe average 1.23°C above Pre-Industrial. If one gives each day since the end of November 2017 an equal bite of the 0.5°C rise to 2040, the projected global temperature at the end of Q 2 this year is 1.08 degrees. My Ten Stations collectively are therefore warming seven times faster than projected. Durham Tees is cooling by a little less than one “IPCC Unit” (0.02174°C per year).

Returning to Durham Tees, below is a graph showing the progression of mean temperature above Pre-Industrial through the warmest spring of the last 13 years, the coolest, and for the last three years.

This clearly shows that April and May this year were indeed chillier than March but in following 2019’s trend the season ended up distinctly average.

Sea 37 · Filey Bay

An Exceptional April

England hasn’t had such a cold April for almost a hundred years, and I think Scotland was chillier last month than at any time “since records began”. The Met Office serves up sunshine and precipitation figures with UK temperatures here.

Durham Tees weather station posted a month mean a couple of degrees centigrade above the UK April average – mainly because it didn’t share Scotland’s experience. It was 2.7°C colder than the 2009 to 2020 average minimum and so accords with the Met Office’s anomaly map for the four nations. But 2021 wasn’t the coldest April of the thirteen years for which I have data. 2012 was 0.68 degrees cooler. All that sunshine last month had an impact after the frosty early mornings.

April, though, is the fifth month of the meteorological year and the running mean from the first of December, in the guise of Temperature Above Pre-Industrial, reveals Durham Tees is quite a bit warmer in 2021 than the IPCC Paris Accord projection. There has been a 0.2°C fall in the month but at 1.42°C above Pre-Industrial on the 30th, Durham Tees is 0.34 degrees warmer than it should be if the 2040 Paris limit is not to be breached. Those trendlines in the graph above are misleading.

Below is a graph indicating April’s mean temperatures above/below Pre-Industrial from 2009 to 2021. Most years are “grayed out” to avoid confusion. Only the warmest and coolest years at the end of April are highlighted, with 2021 emphasized. The average Temperature above Pre-Industrial for the 13 years (2009 to 2021) is 1.17°C. This is about 0.1 degrees above the IPCC projection indicating a warming rate four times greater than expected. 2021 is currently running about sixteen times warmer than the IPCC’s projection (offered in 2017). Not to worry. The Grand Solar Minimum/Little Ice Age is on the way.

Insect 30 · Sea Slater

Ligia oceanica, Filey Sands

Not Breaking a Record

Yesterday was the warmest March day in the UK for 53 years, falling 1.1°C short of the record high of 25.6°C measured at Mepal, Cambridgeshire in 1968.

The current meteorological year is, however, running noticeably cooler than last year in the north-east of England.

In marked contrast, 2020 was warmer than 2019 throughout the year.

At the end of Week 17 this meteorological year, the Mean Temperature was running 0.87°C cooler than 2020. At the same point last year, the running Mean Temperature was 0.59°C higher than in 2019.

I am in the process of refining my calculations of Mean Temperature above Pre-Industrial. Durham Tees at Week 17 in 2019 was 1.75°C above Pre-Industrial; in 2020 it was 2.36 degrees above P-I and this year it is 1.51 degrees above. If you take into consideration that warming must proceed at a rate of 0.02174°C each year to reach the IPCC’s “Paris Limit” of 1.5 degrees above P-I in 2040, these calculations are consistent with the comparison figures in the previous paragraph.

Townscape 70 · Queen Street Steps

The Old Coastguard House

A Warm Year in the North East

With just a week of Meteorological Year 2020 to go, the Mean Weekly Temperature recorded at Durham Tees Airport is running 1.07°C higher than last year.

At Week 51 in 2019 this part of England was showing a “negative warming rate” of -16 IPCC units when compared to the Paris Accord global projection of 1.04°C above Pre-Industrial at year end (rising to 1.5°C in 2040). This meteorological year, Durham Tees has warmed 31 times faster than the IPCC projection.

2020 on the Yorkshire coast has seemed unremarkable weather-wise, but 58% of Durham Tees days have been warmer than last year.

Influenza is real, and so is climate change, but only tyrants are using both as sticks with which to beat us. Submit or resist. There doesn’t seem to be a middle way.

Sunrise 47 · Filey Beacon

The Northern Winter

After a cold start, my small sample of five northern hemisphere weather stations developed a fever, the running average weekly mean ending the season 2.51°C warmer than the same period last year.

NorthWINTER20cf19DIFF

At Week 13 last year, Washington DC, Rome, Mumbai, Koltsovo and Shanghai were, together, running at 1.31°C above their Pre-Industrial baseline. Adding the aforementioned difference gives a Winter average of 3.52°C above P-I. After the chilly first week, the rise was at first steep and then steady.

NorthWINTER20cfP-I

Under normal circumstances, this rise cannot be expected to continue through the northern Spring. However, the new coronavirus has cleared the skies above China of so much filth that Shanghai may get warmer still. Perhaps the other four stations will cool.

North-east England followed The Five – but less enthusiastically. At the end of this winter, Durham Tees was a mere 0.9°C warmer than the previous year.

DurTeesWINTER20cf19DIFF

Weeks 9 to 11 were not as warm as this graph makes them appear. There was a bit of a cold snap in the corresponding period last year.

DurTeesWINTER20cfP-I

This corner of England cooled markedly over the next nine months of 2019, ending the year at just 0.55 degrees centigrade above Pre-Industrial. A similar decline this year will bring us close to the Paris Target.

As mentioned in earlier weather posts, the southern hemisphere Summer has been much cooler this year at the Five Stations. I’ll share the figures and graphs next week.

Today’s Image

Five years to the day after photographing him on Muston Sands, I bumped into Angus this morning in Crescent Gardens. I was perhaps rude to ask the elderly gentleman’s age – he’s fourteen now and still very active.

The Hottest January?

There are two schools of thought. The Earth’s land and oceans have been warming for the last twenty years. Er, no, they have been cooling.

Our world can’t do both at the same time surely, so who is right? (Obviously, both sides agree that the climate is changing.)

A few days ago, NOAA declared that January 2020 was the hottest on record, globally. It beat 2016 by 0.02°C, a ridiculously tiny amount compared to the margin of error of the calculation. But wait…

The four warmest Januaries documented in the climate record have occurred since 2016; the 10 warmest have all occurred since 2002.

NOAA

I have been a “warmist” for as long as I can remember, a position reinforced by the Ten Weather Stations I’ve been monitoring. I spent a few hours on Sunday extending the series back to 2001and calculated the difference between the January Mean and the Ten Year Average for each station. The resulting hemisphere/globe charts look like this.

January_NORTH_0120

January_SOUTH_0120

January_GLOBE_0120

It is clear that 2020 wasn’t the warmest January at one northern station. Koltsovo was the anomaly and I had to check the data at Weather Underground. Seventeen days were over 20 degrees Fahrenheit and three above freezing. Phew! Unprecedented?

The trendlines show warming in the 21st century but this does not mean that the “Coolists” are wrong in their assertions. Ten stations is a pitifully small sample. I may, by chance, have picked on those returning unusually high mean temperatures.

As a control (of sorts), I looked at Durham Tees, going back as far as the data were available in an uninterrupted sequence.

DurhamTeesJANUARY9720

I was surprised to see northern England experienced Koltsovo-like relative warmth in 2007, with 2020 coming a dismal 4th and 2016 5th (of 24 years). But the trendline is almost flat, so it is not difficult to imagine that hundreds of stations could easily dip the other way.

(Januarys/Januaries.)

I wonder what the Hemisphere and Globe charts would look like if the data from every station available on Weather Underground were to be interrogated and averaged.

The elephant (or polar bear) in the room is the accusation from the Cool folk that NOAA doctors the raw temperature data to suit a global warming narrative. Mallen Baker answers the charge.

Wombats to the Rescue

The estimated death toll for all animals in the Australian bushfires has doubled in just a few days to over a billion. I was a sucker for the story of wombats encouraging other species of critter into their safe, deep burrows. Proof, if any was needed, that dumb animals are superior to wise apes (aka clever morons). Learning just now that the yarn is not true doesn’t change my opinion one whit.

The argument over how much human activity has contributed to global warming may never end. There seems little doubt that human agency is responsible for much of the destruction caused by bushfires in Australia. Arson and inadequate clearance of combustible materials in vulnerable areas of a drought-stricken country come readily to mind. The rapidity of the burning, the apocalyptic fierceness of the flames (with random explosions), and the melting of vehicles while tree branches above remain unburned – all open up the possibility that psychopaths are involved, with their direct energy weapons, and accelerants dropped by planes engaged in weather modification. A tin foil hat is not required to at least look into such possibilities yourself.

Sydney Airport is one of my monitored weather stations. For my sins, I listen to BBC News and have been brainwashed into thinking that the bushfires are worse in Australia this year because it is hotter. Well, it isn’t hotter in Sydney. It is true that there has been a drop in temperature in the last week, and if this is a nationwide thing it may give the firefighters some respite.

Summer in Sydney, so far, looks a bit like this.

6_Sydney_TabovePI

The week to week rise and fall this year is crazily like that of 2018/19 (2019 for simplicity). It is, however, half a degree centigrade cooler at the end of Week 6 this year. It isn’t just heatwaves fueling the fires then.

Here is another perspective.

6_Sydney_MeanWkTemp

2012 was the coolest summer of the Ten Years from 2009 to 2018, and 2017 the warmest. At Week 6, Sydney is 0.31°C above the 10 Year Average. It follows that it was 0.81 degrees warmer than average last year.

So, Sydney is currently 1.31°C above Pre-Industrial whilst Durham Tees in Northern England is 2.56 degrees above P-I and 0.91°C warmer than at the same time last year.

6_DurhamTees_TabovePI

The Difference a Day Makes

The final week of Meteorological Year 2018/19 had eight days in it. This year “Met Weeks” run from Sunday to Saturday – and Sunday is Temperature taking day. There is clearly an opportunity now to compare 2019/20 with last year, but I hope to present findings in a simpler, clearer fashion. I created some tables and graphs today that even I can’t understand.

Given that “climate emergency” is now mainstream, I’d like to keep a finger on the pulse, using data that are (I hope) trustworthy. (New Meteorological Year resolution – I’m going to try not to make any more silly calculation mistakes. I’ve found a few after posting, though they rarely exceed tenths of a degree and so have possibly gone unnoticed.)

One tidbit from today’s labours. Durham Tees, the “coldest” of the eleven stations last year, was the “warmest” in the first week of the new year. It returned a Mean temperature of 3.14°C above (my) Pre-Industrial baseline. Last year it averaged just 0.55 degrees above P-I, so in one week my “home patch” warmed at a rate 119 times higher than projected by the IPCC. Mumbai was second at 100 times warmer.

There is no need to panic. Six of the 10 Stations were cooler and cool enough to bring the IPCC “multiplier” down to x2 for “the Globe”. Phew!

Transitioning

Much of the United States experienced a rapid change in October, from “unprecedented heat” to being “seriously cold”. What appeared to be the early onset of winter stirred some preachers of the nth coming of the Grand Solar Minimum.

But the cold didn’t reach Washington DC until the end of Met Week 48, the daily mean dropping over ten degrees centigrade, from 19.9 on Thursday to 9.2°C on Friday. Until then, it had been much warmer than the 10-Year average (2008/9 to 2017/18). DC topped the Ten Station chart for the week, at 3.95°C above my Pre-Industrial baseline. Two other northern hemisphere stations were above the dreaded two degrees, and so were three southern hemisphere stations.

A couple of chilly links, to End of the American Dream and Weather Underground, should be read in the context of a generally toasty North last week, and a South that just crept over the “Paris Accord” target, (as represented by my 5 chosen stations and comparing the running 7-day average with my Pre-industrial baseline).

Durham Tees last week was much colder than Pre-Industrial – and all the Ten Stations.

Week48_wkplusYTDinsets

Wellington is this week’s featured station. Promised a cold Spring a while back, it was 7th in the Week 48 Table, at 0.43°C above P-I (0.42 below the Ten-Year Average). This amount of coolness has been enough to drop the running average for the year to 1.49°C. Only three of the Ten are now “above Paris” – Rio de Janeiro (1.8), Koltsovo (1.63) and Washington DC (1.61°C).

Wellington is following the trendline more closely than any of the other nine stations.

Wk48_WellingtonSouthTREND