Waves of Covid

There is a lot going on in the world that we should be frightened about but the mysterious flu called Covid-19 is not one of them. Julia Hartley-Brewer and Professor Anthony Brookes chatted about it today on talkRADIO (11 minutes).

Here are a couple of graphs  based on Covid death totals available on Worldometer. Waves start when deaths attributed to Covid-19 reach 2% of expected daily deaths from all causes. The UK’s First Wave lasted 118 days  and Sweden took about 40 days longer to fall back below 2%.

The Second Wave in the UK has a way to go before it is worse than the First. (The ongoing rise has the look and feel of old normal seasonality about it.) The value of common sense and not locking a country down is illustrated by the Swedish experience.

Sunrise 45 · Filey Beacon

The Chuckle Brothers

They seem to delight in frightening the UK population to death-by-Covid.

UK Column News dealt with their prognostications in the opening segment on Wednesday.

If one removes all the over eighties who have died from the dread disease this year you will struggle to find a First Wave anywhere. But, taking the UK’s supposed Covid deaths from Worldometer, I concocted this chart.

I chose to begin the First Wave on the day Covid related deaths were more than 2% of those expected from all causes. (The expected daily figure being the World Bank 2018 total divided by 365.25.) The First Wave petered out when the daily percentage dropped below 2%. It had lasted 17 weeks.

I have used the same parameter for the beginning of the Second Wave. The Chuckle Brothers seem to be suggesting it will last longer and be far worse than the First.

The Second Wave in the UK is five weeks old and you can see that, so far, it isn’t very threatening. My projection for the 17 weeks has been calculated as follows:- First Wave daily percentage changes (up and down) have been aggregated to a weekly multiplier that has been applied to the first week of the Second Wave.

The projection line from Week 1 doesn’t rise above 10% of deaths from all causes but the actual Week 5 figure is 10.6%. In the last few days the numbers of people dying within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 have risen significantly and if they go as high as the Chuckle Brothers are suggesting the blue columns may be above the line for the next 3 months. (Of course, there is the normal winter flu to look forward to as well.)

More accomplished statisticians are keeping tabs on what is happening – and what “vested interests” are telling us is happening.

Wave 42 · Herring Hill