Covid case numbers are rising in Europe and Brits are being primed to expect a surge of infections here too, though maybe not for five or six months. Case numbers should not be confused with infections, and deaths from the disease in France, Germany and the UK have fallen since January. France looks the most likely of the three to be inundated first by a Third Wave of Covid-19 – or perhaps a First Wave of the Billy Goats-promised “next pandemic”.
Death totals are taken from Worldometer and Expected Deaths are Annual Totals derived from World Bank 2018 figures evenly distributed. I will look for more accurate First Quarter data and perhaps offer a more trustworthy graph later. Not that there is anything reliable about published Covid-19 data anyway. If you want to do your own Italian Job on this graph, divide the vertical axis figures by eight to get a more accurate picture. (Roughly 90 per cent of the UK bars above are arguably “Lockdown Deaths”. So, in Week 3, about 1,000 people were killed by Sars-CoV-2 and 7,500 by regime policies.)
For what they are worth. “With Covid” weekly deaths sourced at Worldometer. I have divided 2018 deaths from all causes (The World Bank)by 52, paying no heed to seasonal fluctuations. As the four countries are assessed in the same way, the “patterns” revealed have some validity. (When the actual 2020 deaths from all causes are reported, I will perhaps create a second set of charts to give a more accurate picture.)
The French second wave is almost as old as the first but still has a way to go before Covid related deaths fall below 2% of expected deaths.
The UK second wave began to rise again in Week 13 – a trend that one would expect if our old friend the winter flu was still around.
Second waves began later in Germany and Sweden and both countries have recently completed their tenth week.
The y-axis is the same for all four charts. Germany’s second wave is the most frightening at first glance but its peak (so far) is the lowest of the quartet. Sweden’s second wave appears to be running out of energy but it could “uptick” UK-fashion.
It should be borne in mind that deaths from all causes in most countries are at or below what would be expected in an average year. Fewer people are dying from the big killers because, for example, heart attack and pneumonia deaths have been routinely and dishonestly ascribed to Covid-19. Hardly anyone has died from old flu since the new kid showed up. In the UK, the number of under sixties without other “health issues” who succumbed to “the rona” is said to be less than four hundred.. Which is why the psychos have invoked mutant Covid strains in the UK and South Africa. When final tallies are made for 2020 I expect more people will have died from lock down, mask-wearing and vaccines than Covid-19.
For what? All will be revealed next year, probably.
Measure of Man 49 · Work & Leisure
A Lufthansa Cargo jet flying over a West Avenue drive-in cinema this afternoon. Trade goods in a McDonnell Douglas MD-11F heading to Chicago from Frankfurt. I don’t know what the film is. (The Greatest Showman was advertised but I’m sure I caught a glimpse of Colin Firth.)
Towards the end of 1810, the British vessel Neva was captured by the French. Richard CORTIS, second in command, found himself a prisoner of war.
Fifty-nine years later, a mariner called Richard Cortis was laid to rest in Hull’s General Cemetery. There is a photograph of his headstone at Billion Graves. He was eighty-three years old and so, if he is one and the same, would have been only 24 when living at Napoleon’s pleasure.
On census night 1861, Hull mariner Richard was with his son William, Filey’s doctor, at No.1 John Street. The household of twelve also contained three of Richard’s grandchildren, Jane Maria, 15, William Richard, 14, and Herbert Liddell, 5. The lives of all three, and their father’s, would end in Australia. Sadly, Richard did not live to see Herbert become a World Cycling Champion.
Last month, out of the blue, I received a set of photographs from Australia that included a picture of Richard.
This appears to be a hand coloured studio photograph – so Richard would have had to be approaching sixty when it was taken. On the evidence of the kepi on the table, the uniform is French. Does this connect him to the other Richard? Were the French so impressed by Richard’s bravery that they honoured him with this dress uniform and sword upon release from prison? And many years later, after the invention of photography, he could still fit into it.
I am not going to speculate further on this image. Richard’s exploits and qualities as mariner, ship owner, hotel keeper, local “prime mover” – and father – are impressive enough not to need a tale of derring-do and showmanship. But doesn’t he look handsome?
My thanks to Peter for sending the photographs. I will share the others over the next few weeks.
A Reduction in UK COVID-19 Deaths
There were 5,299 fewer UK deaths recorded at Worldometers today. The muppets at Public Health England have been forced to acknowledge the nonsense that Britons catching the supposed disease could never be cured, ever. Weeks and months after appearing to recover, Covid would nonetheless appear on certificates, whatever actually caused their deaths. A dumb, dishonest way to boost scamdemic fatalities. This at-a-stroke 11% drop in Covid deaths has not changed the rankings posted yesterday. Deaths per million have fallen from 686 to 608 but the UK keeps the top spot in my Table.
There are more apparently lethal countries: Belgium (854), Peru (657), Spain (611). There are a few “safer” countries than New Zealand, including Uganda and Vietnam (0.2 per million), Sr Lanka (0.5), Rwanda and Mozambique (0.6).
(If you are offended by my use of the term “muppets” for UK Regime Health Advisors please see Skepticat’s take on The Second Wave.)
You may have noticed another CHAPMAN on the Gristhorpe War Memorial (Thursday’s post). Thomas William is a first cousin to Robert, and you can find him on the Shared Tree.
Serving in different regiments, it is unlikely that they ever fought side by side, but it seems that both the 12th Battalion West Yorkshire Regiment and the 6th Scottish Borderers were at Delville Wood in July 1916. Allied forces were tasked with taking the wood “at all costs” and from the 15th July into August the fighting was brutal, a satanic mix of close combat exchanges and intense artillery barrages. If the bodies of the fallen were found, many could not be identified. Thomas was killed on 23 July and, as one of the “missing”, is remembered on the Thiepval Memorial.
A comrade of Thomas in the 12th Battalion was Tom CHAPMAN, son of John William and Eliza née CAMMISH. He was not related by blood to Thomas William and Robert. Tom may well have been struck down on the same day as Thomas. He died on 27 July from wounds received during the battle for “Devil’s Wood”. He is buried at La Neuville British Cemetery at Corbie and is remembered at a family grave in St Oswald’s churchyard. Find him on the Shared Tree.
It is a fair step from Scarborough Station to the top end of Peasholm Glen, but it’s no hardship for an old taphophile. The way passes through the wonderful Dean and Manor Road cemeteries.
On the right of the path as it slopes down to the tunnel under Manor Road, on the right, is the eye-catching “music stone”.
Above this fond farewell, the dedication:-
A leaflet produced by The Friends of Dean Road and Manor Road Cemetery tells us that Adelaide was born in France. Just “Arras” is inscribed on the stone and I wondered if she may have been an East Yorkshire girl. But no, her birthplace is given in the 1911 census as France – and she married as a mature woman in 1909, aged about 57. She is registered as Adelaide BELL so Vincent Charles White was perhaps her second or third husband. He was given only a few years to dote upon her. She died in 1915 and eighteen years would pass before they were “reunited”.
Vincent’s first wife, Mary WOOD, died the year before the sweethearts tied the knot. It isn’t clear if his first marriage produced any children. There is one birth registration, for “James Henry Traltles” WHITE in 1882 but the census in 1891 finds the couple visiting a family in Leicester, without children in tow. Ten years later Vincent and Mary are the only occupants of a house in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales. (Mary is listed as “Pollie” but age and birthplace are consistent with the earlier census – and she dies as Mary.)
Vincent was a musician for most of his working life but perhaps not a very accomplished one. He seems to have wandered the land seeking work and, although offering titles like “Professor” and “bandmaster” to Victorian data gatherers he may have had to lower his sights on occasion.
Vincent was living at 34 Green Lane, Newby when he died and a brief notice in the Leeds Mercury the following year announced the gross value of his estate to be £1,335. His “net personalty” was just £251. But, hey, he spared no expense for his departed sweetheart.
I haven’t yet found Vincent or Adelaide on the FamilySearch Tree. I’ll keep looking.
The first segment of today’s UK Column news bulletin deals with the attempts of a state to put down citizen protests with brutal violence. If Bashar al-Assad treated his people this way the European media would be hammering readers and viewers with righteous condemnation – and the Axis of Evil would be raining its missiles upon Syria. But because it is Macron…
I wonder how many of the 27 EU nations are providing goons to maim and kill on French streets.
And to think there are British politicians desperate for their people to remain shackled to the European Union. (Just think how lethal the organization will be when it achieves “military unification”. Remember, its unelected bureaucrats make all the rules we will die by.)
You wouldn’t know it from MSM coverage but most of the yellow vest protests in France are peaceful. Paris is the biggest and most frightening anomaly. There is evidence that much of the citizen violence, destruction and looting is done by agents provocateurs. Rural France seems to prefer peaceful civil disobedience and the police don’t intervene.
Meanwhile, in London yesterday, the “ordinary people” asking for the Brexit they voted for were quiet and dignified. None were arrested. The police didn’t have quite such an easy time with Antifa. Although very one-sided, this video gives some sort of “balance”.
A Note from Canary
Nine days of December and in my ten chosen cities 51% of days have been warmer than the ten year average for the month. However, the cold days have been more extreme than the warm in both the northern and southern hemispheres. In the North the daily maximum temperatures are, overall, .6°F lower than the 2008 to 2017 average for December 1st to 9th. In the South, they are 1.5°F lower. Anomalously warmest city – Rome (winter); coldest – Buenos Aires (summer).
Plenty of time for change this month – but Grand Solar Minimum has its beak in front at the moment. Graphs and histograms to follow early next month.
The recent missile attack on Syria by 4 Israeli F-16s was instrumental in the downing of a Russian Il-2 reconnaissance plane. The official Federation narrative accuses one of the F-16s of “hiding” behind the much larger aircraft. The Syrian surface to air missile, locked onto the Israeli jet, turned sharply in the last seconds and brought down the Il-2. The Israeli Defence Force claims that the four F-16s were in Israeli airspace when the fatal explosion took place.
One of the parties is lying. Perhaps both are. Missing from the Russian claim is any mention of the French frigate that was initially thought to be responsible for bringing the Il-2 down. The notion that the French committed a warlike act to draw a violent response from Russia, prompting FUKUS to pile in to avenge a NATO member is a bit far-fetched, but not impossible when you consider the human sacrifices globalists are prepared to make to get things rolling.
If that was the plan, it failed. Putin doesn’t take that sort of bait.
I have a not too distant memory of Hilary Clinton pressing for a no-fly zone over Syria. I know American Psychos feel entitled but that was ridiculous. But now, for a short while at least, there is a no-fly zone over Syria. Imposed by Russia. American and Israeli aircraft beware.
Another Russian response to the Israeli assault a few days ago is to revive the agreement to deliver S-300 missiles to Syria. Ever conciliatory, Putin put delivery on hold a few months ago when Israel objected, calling it an act of aggression. Vladimir Vladimirovich must have decided enough is enough.
I hope Russia, on Thursday, will renew the NOTAMS that effectively create the no-fly zone (that seems to have gone under the BBC’s radar), and get the S-300s operational on Syrian soil asap. At the very least, Netanyahu will be given some time to reconsider, though he blusters that his policies towards (against) Syria will not be changing. Time will tell.