Covid case numbers are rising in Europe and Brits are being primed to expect a surge of infections here too, though maybe not for five or six months. Case numbers should not be confused with infections, and deaths from the disease in France, Germany and the UK have fallen since January. France looks the most likely of the three to be inundated first by a Third Wave of Covid-19 – or perhaps a First Wave of the Billy Goats-promised “next pandemic”.
Death totals are taken from Worldometer and Expected Deaths are Annual Totals derived from World Bank 2018 figures evenly distributed. I will look for more accurate First Quarter data and perhaps offer a more trustworthy graph later. Not that there is anything reliable about published Covid-19 data anyway. If you want to do your own Italian Job on this graph, divide the vertical axis figures by eight to get a more accurate picture. (Roughly 90 per cent of the UK bars above are arguably “Lockdown Deaths”. So, in Week 3, about 1,000 people were killed by Sars-CoV-2 and 7,500 by regime policies.)
For what they are worth. “With Covid” weekly deaths sourced at Worldometer. I have divided 2018 deaths from all causes (The World Bank)by 52, paying no heed to seasonal fluctuations. As the four countries are assessed in the same way, the “patterns” revealed have some validity. (When the actual 2020 deaths from all causes are reported, I will perhaps create a second set of charts to give a more accurate picture.)
The French second wave is almost as old as the first but still has a way to go before Covid related deaths fall below 2% of expected deaths.
The UK second wave began to rise again in Week 13 – a trend that one would expect if our old friend the winter flu was still around.
Second waves began later in Germany and Sweden and both countries have recently completed their tenth week.
The y-axis is the same for all four charts. Germany’s second wave is the most frightening at first glance but its peak (so far) is the lowest of the quartet. Sweden’s second wave appears to be running out of energy but it could “uptick” UK-fashion.
It should be borne in mind that deaths from all causes in most countries are at or below what would be expected in an average year. Fewer people are dying from the big killers because, for example, heart attack and pneumonia deaths have been routinely and dishonestly ascribed to Covid-19. Hardly anyone has died from old flu since the new kid showed up. In the UK, the number of under sixties without other “health issues” who succumbed to “the rona” is said to be less than four hundred.. Which is why the psychos have invoked mutant Covid strains in the UK and South Africa. When final tallies are made for 2020 I expect more people will have died from lock down, mask-wearing and vaccines than Covid-19.
For what? All will be revealed next year, probably.
Measure of Man 49 · Work & Leisure
A Lufthansa Cargo jet flying over a West Avenue drive-in cinema this afternoon. Trade goods in a McDonnell Douglas MD-11F heading to Chicago from Frankfurt. I don’t know what the film is. (The Greatest Showman was advertised but I’m sure I caught a glimpse of Colin Firth.)