Winter Heat, Summer Chill

BBC Radio 4 News woke me this morning with the three top stories being about Climate Change. Not surprising, perhaps, when the guest editor of the Today Programme is Marmite Greta. (Disclosure: I love Greta.)

Four weeks into the new Meteorological Year and things are shaping up in interesting and surprising ways.

Last year ended with my five northern weather stations averaging a Mean Temperature of 1.08°C above Pre-Industrial, and the southern five 1.31 degrees. To bring my Pre-Industrial Baseline into closer alignment with that of the IPCC, I have added 0.15°C to these figures, recalculating my 10 stations “Globe” to an annual Mean of 1.35 degrees above P-I.

Australia has been receiving a lot of attention recently, because of the bushfires, and for a day or two, it was clearly the hottest place on earth. Another wave of heat is expected to roll in this week but Sydney’s running average of daily mean temperatures is currently lower this year than last. It is 1.17°C above P-I compared to the (revised) year-end 1.47 degrees.

Three other southern stations are running cooler than last year. Only Buenos Aires is warmer than at the same stage last year but only 0.48°C above P-I. Comparing this to the IPCC’s Projection to 1.5°C above P-I in 2040 yields a Warming Rate of minus 27. (After four weeks last year it was minus 85.)

It will take more than a month for temperature “patterns” to become settled. Daily variability anywhere on the earth’s surface can be huge. On Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, Koltsovo was 20 degrees centigrade warmer this year than last. Yekaterinburg is currently experiencing temperatures at 6.8°C above P-I. This equates to a Warming Rate 264 times higher than the IPC Projection. It isn’t sensible to compare the monthly change at just one place with the IPCC’s global monthly projection but, just for a lark, Koltsovo is currently warming 3,229 times faster than the whole world is expected to this month. But this rate could fall to a negative figure in a matter of weeks – especially when (if) the Grand Solar Minimum bites.

For now, only Washington DC is running cold in my northern hemisphere of five stations. It ended last year at 1.51°C above P-I and is currently 0.14 degrees BELOW Pre-Industrial. Rome is 3.3° above, Mumbai 2.99 and Shanghai 3.54.

One can boil the ten-station temperature data into any number of different graphs and charts but here are a couple for the infant northern winter and southern summer.

Wk4_MEANcfP-I_NSG

Wk4_MEANcfLastYr_NSG

Don’t be panicked by these graphs. My mini globe’s warming by 0.8 degrees C in four weeks, when the IPCC posits 0.5 degrees in 23 years, is obviously survivable – and subject to change. For now, though, it seems our world has turned upside down with the north being (relatively) warmer compared to last year and the south cooler.

Today’s Image…

…is rather frosty, as was yesterday’s. On 28 December 2016 the low temperature at Whitby was 0.6°C, and 6.23 degrees warmer than that this year. The low at Durham Tees a couple of days ago was a bit higher than Whitby, at 7.22 centigrade. Parts of the UK in the current “unseasonably warm” spell could reach a high of 16°C. The running average Mean for this month in Durham Tees is 2.07°C above P-I. At the same time last year it was 1.28, quite a drop from the first week’s 2.78 above.

Climate Change

from the BBC today:-

Mark Carney

Greta & Sir David

Australia

Massive Attack

Moscow

Tinkering with Temperature

The radio alarmed me this morning with a report of the Met Office assertion that 2019 will have been yet another hot year, one of six this century where the global average has reached one-degree Centigrade above the “1850 to 1900 Pre-Industrial figure”. Thinking I may have misheard I checked online after breakfast. Under the headline Climate Change: Met Office says warming trend will continue in 2020 the BBC website offers this –

Next year will continue the global warming trend with temperatures again likely to rise more than one degree above pre-industrial levels.

According to the Met Office, 2020 will likely be 1.11C warmer than the average between 1850-1900. The year ahead is set to extend the series of the warmest years on record to six in a row…

The world first broke through one degree above pre-industrial temperatures back in 2015.

Well, emerging from my slumber, I had got the gist and have every reason to be alarmed. One degree! The shameless wool-pullers.

“The forecast for 2020 would place next year among the six warmest years on record, which would all have occurred since 2015,” said Dr Doug Smith, a Met Office research fellow.

“All of these years have been around 1.0C warmer than the pre-industrial period.”

As it happens, I have spent much of the last two days working on my Ten Station (and Durham Tees) temperature data. If you have read my earlier posts on this subject, you’ll know that my Industrial Revolution started a century or more before that of the Met Office/IPCC and that I plumped for a global temperature rise of 0.85°C between 1700/1750 and Meteorological Year 2017/18.

Only a few weeks ago I read the IPCC’s Report on future warming. This posited global warming of one degree C from the somewhat late Pre-Industrial to 2017, and a projection to 1.5 degrees in 2040. If this rise is a straight line rather than a “hockey stick”, the world will warm at 0.217°C each year for 23 years.

The date of the Industrial Revolution kicking off isn’t really an issue, but to bring my Weather Stations into line with this IPCC Projection I’ve tinkered – and raised all my temperature above Pre-Industrial figures by 0.15 degrees. So, if you check my previous Tables and Graphs against those I present in future, please don’t cry “error”, unless any differences are more than a bit above or below 0.15 degrees.

Here are the revised graphs for monthly Mean Temperatures above the revised Pre-Industrial Baseline (running averages) for the Ten Stations in 2018/19. (The five stations in each hemisphere have been given a rainbow colour according to their longitude, west to east.)

Northern5_MetYr1819

Southern5_MetYr1819

The Ten Stations make up a very small sample of those reporting around the globe, so there is every chance I have picked a bunch that are running anomalously hot. It may not be a concern that my Southern Hemisphere representatives have, in two years (from 2017), warmed to the IPCC’s 2038 level (1.465 degrees above P-I).

The Met Office seems to be in lockstep with the IPCC. I think they both have some explaining to do.

Four of my Stations have already warmed above 1.5°.

Washington DC: 1.5096

Koltsovo: 1.7251

Wellington: 1.6952

Rio de Janeiro: 1.8248

At 1.3495 degrees above the IPCC’s Pre-Industrial baseline (and now mine), my Ten Station Globe has warmed 14 times faster than the august body’s projection. We’ve reached 2033 already.

Go figure.