A Glance at Ten Weather Stations

In advance of COP 26, beginning at the end of the month, I thought I’d catch up with my Ten Weather Stations.

At the end of Week 46, the Ten are running 0.32°C cooler than last year. Five stations are a bit warmer, but Koltsovo’s eye watering 2.39°C drop, lowers the Northern 5 average by 0.58 degrees.

But Koltsovo was over 4°C above Pre-Industrial at this time last year and is currently the third warmest of the Ten Stations (1.7°C above P-I).

The IPCC’s “Paris Target” of keeping global average temperature below 1.5°C in 2040 seems at risk, but there is some encouragement with five stations currently cooler than the global estimate of 1°C at the end of 2017.

If the mean global temperature rises by 0.02174°C (one “IPCC unit”) each year from 2017, the Paris Target will be reached in 2040.  

Ten Weather Stations represent a small proportion of the globe. For them to be warming 9 times more than the IPCC projection is probably nothing to worry about. The COPpers in Glasgow may have other ideas.

Found Object 62 · Speeder

Clarke’s Asphalt/ Ship Inn Yard

Mumbai & Cape Town

Last week I posted a chart showing Mean Temperatures above Pre-Industrial for the six northern and five southern Weather Stations I am monitoring. Seasonal warmth relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline was greatest in Mumbai and least in Cape Town. Below is a graph showing the experience of both places in the 2021 Meteorological Year so far. I have used Warming Rate figures because, being finer grained, they make the differences between the two places clearer. (My IPCC units are probably proprietary – I haven’t seen them used anywhere else. One unit is the rise in mean global temperature each year if 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial is to be reached in 2040, from the one degree posited at the end of 2017.)

One IPCC unit is equivalent to 0.02174°C and three years 7 months have passed since the end of November 2017. At Week 29 of the 2021 meteorological year the IPCC projection has reached a global figure of 1.07733 degrees above Pre-Industrial. Cape Town is doing us all a service by being well below the global average. For the year to date, however, Sydney is currently the coolest of my eleven stations. The running mean temperature there has been dropping steadily since December, whereas Cape Town it is rising.

I used a Ten Year average mean temperature for each weather station to establish a Pre-Industrial baseline (Met Years 2008/9 to 2017/18). Below is a Table to show the relationship between mean temperatures, IPCC units and mean temperatures above Pre-Industrial. It may seem rather excessive to show these to five decimal places (except for the Warming Rate in IPCC units) but I’ll do it just this once! (The default order of the Weather Stations is west to east, north then south with my local station, Durham Tees an added extra to the Ten Station “study”.)

You will have to take on trust my Mean Running Temperatures for the 10 Years and 2021 but you may find it fun to do your own math to arrive at the current temperatures above Pre-Industrial and the “Warming Rates”. The P-I colour coding is simple – red for Danger (2°C and over), orange for above Paris but below 2°C, green for Goldilocks, (not too warm, not too cold). I have highlighted Koltsovo’s running mean temperature – over half way through the year and it is still in the blue.

Another perspective on this year’s temperatures-to-date is to compare them with 2020 at Week 29.

That Koltsovo is 3.73°C cooler than last year is quite staggering but four of the stations are warmer,  reducing the Global 10 figure to just a little over half a degree. There are thousands of other weather stations reporting so there is no telling if these figures indicate the onset of the expected Grand Solar Minimum.

Mark of Man 62 · Filey Beacon

Filey Sands

An Exceptional April

England hasn’t had such a cold April for almost a hundred years, and I think Scotland was chillier last month than at any time “since records began”. The Met Office serves up sunshine and precipitation figures with UK temperatures here.

Durham Tees weather station posted a month mean a couple of degrees centigrade above the UK April average – mainly because it didn’t share Scotland’s experience. It was 2.7°C colder than the 2009 to 2020 average minimum and so accords with the Met Office’s anomaly map for the four nations. But 2021 wasn’t the coldest April of the thirteen years for which I have data. 2012 was 0.68 degrees cooler. All that sunshine last month had an impact after the frosty early mornings.

April, though, is the fifth month of the meteorological year and the running mean from the first of December, in the guise of Temperature Above Pre-Industrial, reveals Durham Tees is quite a bit warmer in 2021 than the IPCC Paris Accord projection. There has been a 0.2°C fall in the month but at 1.42°C above Pre-Industrial on the 30th, Durham Tees is 0.34 degrees warmer than it should be if the 2040 Paris limit is not to be breached. Those trendlines in the graph above are misleading.

Below is a graph indicating April’s mean temperatures above/below Pre-Industrial from 2009 to 2021. Most years are “grayed out” to avoid confusion. Only the warmest and coolest years at the end of April are highlighted, with 2021 emphasized. The average Temperature above Pre-Industrial for the 13 years (2009 to 2021) is 1.17°C. This is about 0.1 degrees above the IPCC projection indicating a warming rate four times greater than expected. 2021 is currently running about sixteen times warmer than the IPCC’s projection (offered in 2017). Not to worry. The Grand Solar Minimum/Little Ice Age is on the way.

Insect 30 · Sea Slater

Ligia oceanica, Filey Sands

Not Breaking a Record

Yesterday was the warmest March day in the UK for 53 years, falling 1.1°C short of the record high of 25.6°C measured at Mepal, Cambridgeshire in 1968.

The current meteorological year is, however, running noticeably cooler than last year in the north-east of England.

In marked contrast, 2020 was warmer than 2019 throughout the year.

At the end of Week 17 this meteorological year, the Mean Temperature was running 0.87°C cooler than 2020. At the same point last year, the running Mean Temperature was 0.59°C higher than in 2019.

I am in the process of refining my calculations of Mean Temperature above Pre-Industrial. Durham Tees at Week 17 in 2019 was 1.75°C above Pre-Industrial; in 2020 it was 2.36 degrees above P-I and this year it is 1.51 degrees above. If you take into consideration that warming must proceed at a rate of 0.02174°C each year to reach the IPCC’s “Paris Limit” of 1.5 degrees above P-I in 2040, these calculations are consistent with the comparison figures in the previous paragraph.

Townscape 70 · Queen Street Steps

The Old Coastguard House

Lockdowns Forever

An article by Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent, appeared in The Guardian two days ago. It underwent a Headline Change.

Seemorerocks has more on this.

The Paris Temperature goal is to keep global warming below 1.5°C and obviously every little Covid CO2 emission drop will help.

Global average temperature is considered by the IPCC to have reached one degree centigrade above Pre-Industrial by the end of 2017. A steady rise of 0.0217°C per year will take us to 1.5 degrees above P-I in 2040. At the end of the first quarter of this meteorological year the global average is notionally 1.07066°C above P-I. There are a lot of numbers in the Ten Station Table below but the “bottom line” is:-

My five northern hemisphere stations have collectively warmed 42 times faster than the IPCC 2017 projection, and the five southern stations have cooled by 3 IPCC units.

The progress of the hemispheres from the beginning of December 2020 is shown below.

Clearly, we need Covid-21, -23, -25 etc if we are not to fry. A cool southern hemisphere is not going to cut the mustard.

Flight of Fancy 31 · Baphomet

Distractions

Moving house is supposed to be one of the most stressful life events but I think the world turning upside down, inside out and back to front is the main reason I can’t get back into the old routine. I spend too many hours a day trying to understand what is going on around me.

I noticed this on Church Walk yesterday.

That’s Covid dealt with.

Now for the Climate Emergency. There seems to be agreement that 2011 to 2020 was the warmest decade in the “persistent long-term climate change trend”, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 the three warmest years.

We are almost half-way through the first quarter of the 2021 meteorological year and, if my Ten Stations are to be considered representative of the globe, change is in the air.

I am tracking the running average daily mean temperatures and comparing this year’s figures with the average for the four years 2018 to 2021.

At the end of Week 6 only four stations are warmer than the 4 year average. The 5-station hemispheres and 10-station globe are cooler this year-to-date. Of course, this could change for the warmer over the next 46 weeks. (I have thrown “local” station Durham Tees in for good measure.)

Note the stand-out cold place is currently Koltsovo but the Yekaterinburg district has experienced mean temperatures six degrees centigrade above pre-industrial recently, so when it comes to “warming rates” (averaged over the last four years) it still leads the pack.

An IPCC unit is the amount the mean temperature must rise each year to reach the Climate Change Panel’s projection of 1.5°C above pre-industrial by 2040. That my five southern stations are now contributing to a global cooling is interesting. Maybe there is no need for a Great Reset to address the Climate Crisis.

At the end of Week 6 this year, the 10-station global mean temperature is 0.09°C cooler than the IPCC’s projection made in 2017. This has now reached 1.0677°C above P-I, though Bloomberg suggests Earth burned through the 1.2 degree mark last year.

Abstract 64 · Glen Gardens

The Warming Continues

At the end of meteorological year 2020 all five of the southern hemisphere stations I monitor were cooler than in 2019; Buenos Aires by 0.25°C and Rio de Janeiro by 1.26 degrees. Four of the northern stations were warmer by a large enough margin to raise the Ten Station Globe mean temperature difference by 0.16°C.

This may not seem much, but it is seven times greater than the IPCC’s annual “allowance” if earth’s mean temperature is to steadily climb to the Paris Accord projection of 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial levels by 2040.

Three years have passed since the IPCC suggested that the annual global mean temperature had risen by one degree centigrade since the First Industrial Revolution began. If one accepts a steady rise of 0.0217°C each year to 2040, the Global “target” figure a few days ago was 1.065°C. For the Ten Stations it was 1.47 degrees. By chance, the  five southern stations posted 1.465°C above P-I last year. Cooling this year has pushed this down to 0.87 degrees above P-I. The northern five have collectively warmed from 1.24 to 2.07°C above Pre-Industrial.

This results in a ten station warming rate of 19 IPCC units.

Much of the extra heat in the meteorological year just ended was generated in the Arctic. Koltsovo (Yekaterinburg) copped some of it.

NOAA informs us that 2019 was the second warmest year on record. Yesterday, BBC News said that calendar 2020 was shaping up to be the third warmest year since records began. Perhaps December is going to be extremely cold everywhere. Put several layers of masks on, folks.

Bird 91 · Dunnock

North-South Divide 2

The meteorological year is 21 weeks old. Enough time for a comparison to be made with last year’s temperature data from my Ten Stations.

Five stations in each hemisphere is a tiny sample of the total number reporting, so they are in no way representative of the whole world’s temperature experience. They do, however, combine to tell a story that can question the official climate change narrative.

The northern hemisphere is considerably warmer than it should be relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline. At the end of November 2019, the 5 Stations averaged 1.24°C above P-I. The chart below shows the marked difference this year.

Wk21_NorthIPCCunits

The relative warmth peaked in Week 16 at 127.46 IPCC units. This is massive when you consider the IPCC has projected a single unit rise annually until 2040 sees the Paris Accord’s 1.5°C above P-I reached – if humans fail to tackle the “climate emergency” successfully.

127.46 IPCC units equate to 3.84°C above P-I. The steep decline in five weeks is as welcome as it is surprising, given that reduced industrial activity and transport was expected by some to raise land surface temperatures.

The picture in the southern hemisphere is very different.

Wk21_SouthIPCCunits

Ending last year within a smidgen of 1.5°C above P-I, the south has effectively cooled by almost a degree. It would require a drop of another 23 IPCC units to make the southern hemisphere fall below the Pre-Industrial Baseline, but Rio de Janeiro has done that and Cape Town is currently just 0.04°C above P-I.

Despite the recent relative temperature decline in the north and the seeming stasis in the south the linear trends to the end of the year are up in the north and down in the south, suggesting the North-South divide will be maintained.

Wk21_GlobeIPCCunits

 

From the beginning of Week 6 to the middle of Week 18 the 10 Station “mini Globe” had maintained a temperature over 2°C above P-I. The trend from now to the end of the year is upwards, though it is possible that the cold times are coming.

Flower 15 · Mother-dee

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

My breakfast reading is currently Man and the Natural World (Keith Thomas) and discovering that Red Campion (Silene dioica­) has this disturbing vernacular name sent me along Church Walk this morning. Of little use as a food or medicine, this flower was thought, once upon a time, to kill the parents of any child who picked it. “Popular knowledge” in the Middle Ages bestowed a lot of other names upon it, some of them shared with other quite different flowers. Five are “Robin” names and half an hour after taking this photo I met a fine specimen of Erithacus rubecula in Martin’s Ravine.

Bird 80 · Robin

28_20200428Robin2_6m

Ten minutes later I reached the Glen Gardens cliff top and was thrilled to hear a ‘northern nightingale’, one of several birds once familiarly called Peggy. (The others are whitethroat, garden warbler, willow warbler and chiffchaff.) The lovely song was coming from a distant tree, the sea beyond.

Bird 81 · Blackcap

28_20200428Blackcap1_6m

Linneans chose to call “her” Sylvia atricapilla.

Fifteen more minutes and I was back in prison.

 

North-South Divide

It may be lockdown lethargy, or the brain fog many are suffering whilst sheltering in place – I’ve lost my impetus where genealogy and family history are concerned. But I can still juggle happily with numbers for hours on end. Disappointed with the appearance of a graph showing temperature differences this year in the two hemispheres (relative to the Pre-industrial baseline), I sought a whole measure smaller than a degree centigrade or Fahrenheit and found one. I have called it an “IPCC unit”.

The International Panel on Climate Change issued a paper at the time of the Paris Accord that declared the global average temperature had risen one-degree centigrade above Pre-Industrial by 2017. It suggested a further half a degree rise by 2040 – to the 1.5°C limit that should be avoided at all costs.

Assuming an unwavering linear rise, we are looking at a modest-seeming 0.0217°C per annum. (I reckon that to be 0.0391 degrees in Fahrenheit money.)

Creating the graph using IPCC units gives this picture of weekly temperature relative to Pre-Industrial, reported by my Ten Stations over the last thirteen weeks.

NorthSouthDivide_Wks8to20

I have kept it as simple as possible to make it clear that the northern stations are responsible for all the above-average global warming in this time period and the southern stations for all but a tiny bit of the cooling.

Koltsovo has warmed at over 250 times the rate projected by the IPCC. Rio de Janeiro is the “coolest” of the stations.

Koltsovo has cooled by about 55 IPCC units over the thirteen weeks. That’s about 1.2°C, down from 7.8°C above Pre-Industrial to 6.6 degrees. (Global warming isn’t a hoax in Russia.)

Rio’s average weekly mean temperature over this period was 25.6°C but it cooled about 12 IPCC units, or 0.25°C,  from 0.19 to 0.44 degrees BELOW Pre-Industrial.

Shanghai is the northern station that is closely tracking the hemisphere average.

The Ten Station Globe has dropped from 2.09°C above Pre-Industrial in Week 8 to  1.89 degrees in week 20. It is, however, a long drop to a rise of only a single IPCC unit by the end of the meteorological year.

Metal 11 · Roundabout

25_20170425SnowRoundabout1_1m

 

A Masking Effect

We couldn’t be further from a One World Order. Rich and powerful countries impose sanctions on poorer, weaker countries struggling with the effects of a bioweapon that gives people the ‘flu. Countries with a high proportion of narcissist sociopaths project their terrible behaviour onto nations that are, on balance, balanced. Some countries deal sensibly with the psycho-made health challenge, others want the most damage to be done to their people and so do nothing except look busy.

Some countries urge their citizens not to wear face masks. Others encourage the practice. Chris Martenson posted an informative graph today.

20200330Mask1

Interesting that the countries that go masked are having most success flattening their curves – and haven’t been laying waste to the Middle East for the past twenty years or so. For a better image and explanation visit Peak Prosperity. Learn more about masks – and how one European country has embraced the curve flatteners so wholeheartedly that from a zero start most of the inhabitants are now wearing them.

20200330Mask2

Meanwhile, in the benighted UK, police are attempting to shame people who are doing no harm walking in open countryside, whilst airports allow flights in from “epicentre countries” without health-checking incoming passengers. Welcome to the UK. Enjoy your spreading visit.

The Global Dimming Effect

Just Have a Think has addressed the possibility of a temperature spike as a result of reduced industrial activity and travel.

Two weeks ago, my Ten Weather Stations were a bit spikey. Last week, with one extreme exception, they went the other way.

Wk17_MeanIncDecr_10

I noticed this morning that several stations had revised their March data. The changes were both up and down, so there is no obvious attempt to make their locations warmer or colder. And the differences over the month amounted to only a couple of hundredths of a degree. Durham Tees was on a four-day week so I’ve used Newcastle as a temporary proxy for the missing data.

I have added Week 17’s running average Mean temperatures compared to the Pre-Industrial Baseline. The North-South divide is unchanged. I have seen other sources proclaiming the Earth has left the Paris target in the rear-view mirror. Forever?