A Little Bit Warmer

A prediction that the globe may warm by about a degree centigrade over the next few months because of reduced fossil fuel burning is still a reasonable bet. Last week, six of my Ten Stations were cooler than the week before, but by such small amounts that the “mini Globe” warmed by 0.008°C.

Seven of the stations were warmer in Week 16 than the week before. Going against the trend of the meteorological year so far, the southern hemisphere was warmer than the north (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline). The rise was 0.021°C. This may seem insignificant but it is an IPCC year’s worth of extra heat in the projection game.

Wk16_MeanIncDecr_10

Millions of locked down people have other things to worry about but there’s no escaping climate and environmental matters with Greta and Prince Charles catching Covid-19.

Catching Cold

Rowan Dean at Sky Australia won’t have a bar of Global Warming. There’s nothing cheers him so much as a slew of record cold temperatures.

David DuByne seems to prefer chilliness too and posts some very appealing photos of camels in snowy Arabian deserts.

The Grand Solar Minimum has yet to bite though, and in the last 365 days, there have been more record high temperatures than low (according to NOAA/UCAR).

In my small world of Ten Weather Stations, at the end of Week 12 of the meteorological year, the Northern Hemisphere continues toasty. A cool southern summer has had an impact on the “global” figure – but not enough to send it in to the blue. The Mean Temperature this year (running average-to-date) is 0.77°C warmer than last.

Wk12_cfLastYrTable

The hemisphere “split” is just as stark in the Table showing current Mean Temperature above the Ten Station Pre-Industrial Baseline.

Wk12_cfP-ITable

I guess we can blame the Russians for thwarting the Mini Ice Age.

 

The Hottest January?

There are two schools of thought. The Earth’s land and oceans have been warming for the last twenty years. Er, no, they have been cooling.

Our world can’t do both at the same time surely, so who is right? (Obviously, both sides agree that the climate is changing.)

A few days ago, NOAA declared that January 2020 was the hottest on record, globally. It beat 2016 by 0.02°C, a ridiculously tiny amount compared to the margin of error of the calculation. But wait…

The four warmest Januaries documented in the climate record have occurred since 2016; the 10 warmest have all occurred since 2002.

NOAA

I have been a “warmist” for as long as I can remember, a position reinforced by the Ten Weather Stations I’ve been monitoring. I spent a few hours on Sunday extending the series back to 2001and calculated the difference between the January Mean and the Ten Year Average for each station. The resulting hemisphere/globe charts look like this.

January_NORTH_0120

January_SOUTH_0120

January_GLOBE_0120

It is clear that 2020 wasn’t the warmest January at one northern station. Koltsovo was the anomaly and I had to check the data at Weather Underground. Seventeen days were over 20 degrees Fahrenheit and three above freezing. Phew! Unprecedented?

The trendlines show warming in the 21st century but this does not mean that the “Coolists” are wrong in their assertions. Ten stations is a pitifully small sample. I may, by chance, have picked on those returning unusually high mean temperatures.

As a control (of sorts), I looked at Durham Tees, going back as far as the data were available in an uninterrupted sequence.

DurhamTeesJANUARY9720

I was surprised to see northern England experienced Koltsovo-like relative warmth in 2007, with 2020 coming a dismal 4th and 2016 5th (of 24 years). But the trendline is almost flat, so it is not difficult to imagine that hundreds of stations could easily dip the other way.

(Januarys/Januaries.)

I wonder what the Hemisphere and Globe charts would look like if the data from every station available on Weather Underground were to be interrogated and averaged.

The elephant (or polar bear) in the room is the accusation from the Cool folk that NOAA doctors the raw temperature data to suit a global warming narrative. Mallen Baker answers the charge.

Warmer than the Hottest Year

2016 is not universally accepted as the Earth’s “hottest year on record”, but the UK Met Office seems comfortable in declaring it so. Last year was the second hottest.

Yesterday I posted a graph showing the percentage of the current Meteorological Year’s first 63 days that were warmer than the same period last year. Here is a companion chart showing this year’s warm days compared to 2016.

9_WarmerDays2020cf2016

The percentage range is slightly less: North 63.8, South 41.3 (compared to 70.2/33.3) but the 10-station Globe Average is very similar: 51.75 compared to last year and 52.54 compared to the hottest year, 2016. There are still 43 weeks to go for the contrary 9-week globe figures to reverse and make more sense, but it already seems clear that we are heading for another near-record hot year. How much more than “1.1C above pre-industrial average” will it be?

 

Target

The UK’s Met Office has just released its decadal forecast for global weather. Over the first five years of the 2020s, the global annual average temperature is expected to be between 1.15°C and 1.46°C “above pre-industrial conditions”. There is a 10% chance of one of the years exceeding the Paris Accord target of 1.5°C above P-I.

The Met Office appears to be in step with the IPCC, accepting an 1850 start to industrial conditions and a minimum global average at the end of this year of 1.06°C. This figure, I think, is derived from the IPCC projection of a rise of global average temperature from one degree above pre-industrial in 2017 to 1.5°C in 2040, a straight line rise of 0.0217 degrees per annum.

If the Met Office is right and 1.5 is reached by 2024, the one chance in 10 odds that subsequent years will be as warm or warmer will shorten. How long will it be before every year has an average temperature “above Paris”? Well before 2040, possibly.

At the end of Week 9 this Meteorological Year, my five Northern weather Stations are running at 3.59°C above Pre-industrial. (Least warm is Rome at 1.99 and warmest Koltsovo at 7.52.)

The five Southern stations are much cooler. Rio de Janeiro is now 0.09°C BELOW Pre-industrial. Sydney’s running average increased from 1.21 to 1.52°C in the last 7 days. It is the only southern station in the “orange zone” (above Paris). The five together average 0.57°C above Pre-industrial, giving a 10 station global average of 2.08°C above P-I. This is a rate of warming for the year-to-date that is 47 times the IPCC projection. (The math is simple. The expected IPCC temperature at the end of the year is 1.0652 above P-I. Take this away from 2.08 and divide the result by 0.0217.)

I am quite taken by the difference between the hemispheres this year. Last year the South warmed more than the North.

9_WarmerDays2020

The North is getting a bit warmer and the South a little cooler. The 10-station Globe Warmer Days percentage is currently 52, amusingly the proportion of Brits that voted for Brexit in 2016.

At Eight Weeks

At the end of the first quarter of Meteorological Year 2018/19, the two hemispheres (each represented by 5 Weather Stations) were running Mean Temperatures above Pre-Industrial that differed by only one-hundredth of a degree Centigrade. North 1.31, South 1.32; rounding to a Global figure of 1.32 above P-I.

Things are very different this year. At the end of Week 8, four of the northern stations are in the “red zone” – more than 2°C above P-I. Rome is in the orange zone – above the Paris Target but below two degrees. They combine to yield a hemisphere average of 3.7°C above P-I.

8_NORTH_MeancfP-I

The biggest contributor to this increase in relative warmth is Koltsovo, the coldest of the five stations. (The daily mean there has crept above zero centigrade on just three of the 56 days.)

8_Koltsovo_MeancfP-I

The GFS 10-day weather forecast model shows a huge cold air mass moving east from Europe across the Federation – I’m expecting a dip over the next couple of weeks but it is a long way down to 2 degrees above P-I. It may take a Grand Solar Minimum to get it there by the end of the year.

Of course, returns from the thousands of other northern stations could bring my token average of 3.7C above P-I down to a figure that won’t frighten the horses. I have no way of knowing how representative my Ten Stations are. They could even be giving a false picture. These graphs should only be taken as an indication of what may be happening to global temperatures – and viewed in the context of current climate change hysteria.

After 8 weeks then, my North is running at 2.16°C warmer than the same period last year. My South is 0.7 degrees cooler. Putting the two together gives this chart of my “mini Globe’s” weekly differences, with a slight warming trend.

8_GlobeWkDiff20cf19

 

 

Rio Overheated

Rain in Port Elizabeth hast stopped play in the Third Test a few times in the last couple of days. Summer in South Africa isn’t all that hot. Cape Town warmed a quarter of a degree centigrade last week but the running average for the first 49 days of the meteorological year is only 0.28°C above Pre-Industrial.

In Australia, there has been welcome rain. News reports say it has put out some bushfires. Sydney cooled 0.26°C in seven days, falling to 1.05 degrees above Pre-Industrial, almost bang on the IPCC’s projection for the year.

In South America –

Those who were at Santa Cruz station, in Rio de Janeiro, around 12:45 PM on Saturday, felt as if the temperature was 54.8ºC, slightly over 130ºF. This was the Heat Index registered, on Saturday, January 11th, in the Marvelous City.

The Rio Times

 I get my mean temperature data from Santos Dumont Airport, an hour’s drive from Santa Cruz, (about 60 km). The high there on January 11th was 91°Fahrenheit. I suppose it may have “felt” a lot warmer. January in Rio has been much cooler so far this year than last.

Rio_Jan1to18_Diff2019

Since Week 4 this southern summer, Rio has been bumping along the Pre-Industrial Baseline. Quite a change from 2019 when it ended the summer on the dreaded 2°C above P-I.

Wk7_RIOcfP-I