North-South Divide 2

The meteorological year is 21 weeks old. Enough time for a comparison to be made with last year’s temperature data from my Ten Stations.

Five stations in each hemisphere is a tiny sample of the total number reporting, so they are in no way representative of the whole world’s temperature experience. They do, however, combine to tell a story that can question the official climate change narrative.

The northern hemisphere is considerably warmer than it should be relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline. At the end of November 2019, the 5 Stations averaged 1.24°C above P-I. The chart below shows the marked difference this year.

Wk21_NorthIPCCunits

The relative warmth peaked in Week 16 at 127.46 IPCC units. This is massive when you consider the IPCC has projected a single unit rise annually until 2040 sees the Paris Accord’s 1.5°C above P-I reached – if humans fail to tackle the “climate emergency” successfully.

127.46 IPCC units equate to 3.84°C above P-I. The steep decline in five weeks is as welcome as it is surprising, given that reduced industrial activity and transport was expected by some to raise land surface temperatures.

The picture in the southern hemisphere is very different.

Wk21_SouthIPCCunits

Ending last year within a smidgen of 1.5°C above P-I, the south has effectively cooled by almost a degree. It would require a drop of another 23 IPCC units to make the southern hemisphere fall below the Pre-Industrial Baseline, but Rio de Janeiro has done that and Cape Town is currently just 0.04°C above P-I.

Despite the recent relative temperature decline in the north and the seeming stasis in the south the linear trends to the end of the year are up in the north and down in the south, suggesting the North-South divide will be maintained.

Wk21_GlobeIPCCunits

 

From the beginning of Week 6 to the middle of Week 18 the 10 Station “mini Globe” had maintained a temperature over 2°C above P-I. The trend from now to the end of the year is upwards, though it is possible that the cold times are coming.

Flower 15 · Mother-dee

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

My breakfast reading is currently Man and the Natural World (Keith Thomas) and discovering that Red Campion (Silene dioica­) has this disturbing vernacular name sent me along Church Walk this morning. Of little use as a food or medicine, this flower was thought, once upon a time, to kill the parents of any child who picked it. “Popular knowledge” in the Middle Ages bestowed a lot of other names upon it, some of them shared with other quite different flowers. Five are “Robin” names and half an hour after taking this photo I met a fine specimen of Erithacus rubecula in Martin’s Ravine.

Bird 80 · Robin

28_20200428Robin2_6m

Ten minutes later I reached the Glen Gardens cliff top and was thrilled to hear a ‘northern nightingale’, one of several birds once familiarly called Peggy. (The others are whitethroat, garden warbler, willow warbler and chiffchaff.) The lovely song was coming from a distant tree, the sea beyond.

Bird 81 · Blackcap

28_20200428Blackcap1_6m

Linneans chose to call “her” Sylvia atricapilla.

Fifteen more minutes and I was back in prison.

 

North-South Divide

It may be lockdown lethargy, or the brain fog many are suffering whilst sheltering in place – I’ve lost my impetus where genealogy and family history are concerned. But I can still juggle happily with numbers for hours on end. Disappointed with the appearance of a graph showing temperature differences this year in the two hemispheres (relative to the Pre-industrial baseline), I sought a whole measure smaller than a degree centigrade or Fahrenheit and found one. I have called it an “IPCC unit”.

The International Panel on Climate Change issued a paper at the time of the Paris Accord that declared the global average temperature had risen one-degree centigrade above Pre-Industrial by 2017. It suggested a further half a degree rise by 2040 – to the 1.5°C limit that should be avoided at all costs.

Assuming an unwavering linear rise, we are looking at a modest-seeming 0.0217°C per annum. (I reckon that to be 0.0391 degrees in Fahrenheit money.)

Creating the graph using IPCC units gives this picture of weekly temperature relative to Pre-Industrial, reported by my Ten Stations over the last thirteen weeks.

NorthSouthDivide_Wks8to20

I have kept it as simple as possible to make it clear that the northern stations are responsible for all the above-average global warming in this time period and the southern stations for all but a tiny bit of the cooling.

Koltsovo has warmed at over 250 times the rate projected by the IPCC. Rio de Janeiro is the “coolest” of the stations.

Koltsovo has cooled by about 55 IPCC units over the thirteen weeks. That’s about 1.2°C, down from 7.8°C above Pre-Industrial to 6.6 degrees. (Global warming isn’t a hoax in Russia.)

Rio’s average weekly mean temperature over this period was 25.6°C but it cooled about 12 IPCC units, or 0.25°C,  from 0.19 to 0.44 degrees BELOW Pre-Industrial.

Shanghai is the northern station that is closely tracking the hemisphere average.

The Ten Station Globe has dropped from 2.09°C above Pre-Industrial in Week 8 to  1.89 degrees in week 20. It is, however, a long drop to a rise of only a single IPCC unit by the end of the meteorological year.

Metal 11 · Roundabout

25_20170425SnowRoundabout1_1m

 

A Masking Effect

We couldn’t be further from a One World Order. Rich and powerful countries impose sanctions on poorer, weaker countries struggling with the effects of a bioweapon that gives people the ‘flu. Countries with a high proportion of narcissist sociopaths project their terrible behaviour onto nations that are, on balance, balanced. Some countries deal sensibly with the psycho-made health challenge, others want the most damage to be done to their people and so do nothing except look busy.

Some countries urge their citizens not to wear face masks. Others encourage the practice. Chris Martenson posted an informative graph today.

20200330Mask1

Interesting that the countries that go masked are having most success flattening their curves – and haven’t been laying waste to the Middle East for the past twenty years or so. For a better image and explanation visit Peak Prosperity. Learn more about masks – and how one European country has embraced the curve flatteners so wholeheartedly that from a zero start most of the inhabitants are now wearing them.

20200330Mask2

Meanwhile, in the benighted UK, police are attempting to shame people who are doing no harm walking in open countryside, whilst airports allow flights in from “epicentre countries” without health-checking incoming passengers. Welcome to the UK. Enjoy your spreading visit.

The Global Dimming Effect

Just Have a Think has addressed the possibility of a temperature spike as a result of reduced industrial activity and travel.

Two weeks ago, my Ten Weather Stations were a bit spikey. Last week, with one extreme exception, they went the other way.

Wk17_MeanIncDecr_10

I noticed this morning that several stations had revised their March data. The changes were both up and down, so there is no obvious attempt to make their locations warmer or colder. And the differences over the month amounted to only a couple of hundredths of a degree. Durham Tees was on a four-day week so I’ve used Newcastle as a temporary proxy for the missing data.

I have added Week 17’s running average Mean temperatures compared to the Pre-Industrial Baseline. The North-South divide is unchanged. I have seen other sources proclaiming the Earth has left the Paris target in the rear-view mirror. Forever?

A Little Bit Warmer

A prediction that the globe may warm by about a degree centigrade over the next few months because of reduced fossil fuel burning is still a reasonable bet. Last week, six of my Ten Stations were cooler than the week before, but by such small amounts that the “mini Globe” warmed by 0.008°C.

Seven of the stations were warmer in Week 16 than the week before. Going against the trend of the meteorological year so far, the southern hemisphere was warmer than the north (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline). The rise was 0.021°C. This may seem insignificant but it is an IPCC year’s worth of extra heat in the projection game.

Wk16_MeanIncDecr_10

Millions of locked down people have other things to worry about but there’s no escaping climate and environmental matters with Greta and Prince Charles catching Covid-19.

Catching Cold

Rowan Dean at Sky Australia won’t have a bar of Global Warming. There’s nothing cheers him so much as a slew of record cold temperatures.

David DuByne seems to prefer chilliness too and posts some very appealing photos of camels in snowy Arabian deserts.

The Grand Solar Minimum has yet to bite though, and in the last 365 days, there have been more record high temperatures than low (according to NOAA/UCAR).

In my small world of Ten Weather Stations, at the end of Week 12 of the meteorological year, the Northern Hemisphere continues toasty. A cool southern summer has had an impact on the “global” figure – but not enough to send it in to the blue. The Mean Temperature this year (running average-to-date) is 0.77°C warmer than last.

Wk12_cfLastYrTable

The hemisphere “split” is just as stark in the Table showing current Mean Temperature above the Ten Station Pre-Industrial Baseline.

Wk12_cfP-ITable

I guess we can blame the Russians for thwarting the Mini Ice Age.

 

The Hottest January?

There are two schools of thought. The Earth’s land and oceans have been warming for the last twenty years. Er, no, they have been cooling.

Our world can’t do both at the same time surely, so who is right? (Obviously, both sides agree that the climate is changing.)

A few days ago, NOAA declared that January 2020 was the hottest on record, globally. It beat 2016 by 0.02°C, a ridiculously tiny amount compared to the margin of error of the calculation. But wait…

The four warmest Januaries documented in the climate record have occurred since 2016; the 10 warmest have all occurred since 2002.

NOAA

I have been a “warmist” for as long as I can remember, a position reinforced by the Ten Weather Stations I’ve been monitoring. I spent a few hours on Sunday extending the series back to 2001and calculated the difference between the January Mean and the Ten Year Average for each station. The resulting hemisphere/globe charts look like this.

January_NORTH_0120

January_SOUTH_0120

January_GLOBE_0120

It is clear that 2020 wasn’t the warmest January at one northern station. Koltsovo was the anomaly and I had to check the data at Weather Underground. Seventeen days were over 20 degrees Fahrenheit and three above freezing. Phew! Unprecedented?

The trendlines show warming in the 21st century but this does not mean that the “Coolists” are wrong in their assertions. Ten stations is a pitifully small sample. I may, by chance, have picked on those returning unusually high mean temperatures.

As a control (of sorts), I looked at Durham Tees, going back as far as the data were available in an uninterrupted sequence.

DurhamTeesJANUARY9720

I was surprised to see northern England experienced Koltsovo-like relative warmth in 2007, with 2020 coming a dismal 4th and 2016 5th (of 24 years). But the trendline is almost flat, so it is not difficult to imagine that hundreds of stations could easily dip the other way.

(Januarys/Januaries.)

I wonder what the Hemisphere and Globe charts would look like if the data from every station available on Weather Underground were to be interrogated and averaged.

The elephant (or polar bear) in the room is the accusation from the Cool folk that NOAA doctors the raw temperature data to suit a global warming narrative. Mallen Baker answers the charge.

Warmer than the Hottest Year

2016 is not universally accepted as the Earth’s “hottest year on record”, but the UK Met Office seems comfortable in declaring it so. Last year was the second hottest.

Yesterday I posted a graph showing the percentage of the current Meteorological Year’s first 63 days that were warmer than the same period last year. Here is a companion chart showing this year’s warm days compared to 2016.

9_WarmerDays2020cf2016

The percentage range is slightly less: North 63.8, South 41.3 (compared to 70.2/33.3) but the 10-station Globe Average is very similar: 51.75 compared to last year and 52.54 compared to the hottest year, 2016. There are still 43 weeks to go for the contrary 9-week globe figures to reverse and make more sense, but it already seems clear that we are heading for another near-record hot year. How much more than “1.1C above pre-industrial average” will it be?

 

Target

The UK’s Met Office has just released its decadal forecast for global weather. Over the first five years of the 2020s, the global annual average temperature is expected to be between 1.15°C and 1.46°C “above pre-industrial conditions”. There is a 10% chance of one of the years exceeding the Paris Accord target of 1.5°C above P-I.

The Met Office appears to be in step with the IPCC, accepting an 1850 start to industrial conditions and a minimum global average at the end of this year of 1.06°C. This figure, I think, is derived from the IPCC projection of a rise of global average temperature from one degree above pre-industrial in 2017 to 1.5°C in 2040, a straight line rise of 0.0217 degrees per annum.

If the Met Office is right and 1.5 is reached by 2024, the one chance in 10 odds that subsequent years will be as warm or warmer will shorten. How long will it be before every year has an average temperature “above Paris”? Well before 2040, possibly.

At the end of Week 9 this Meteorological Year, my five Northern weather Stations are running at 3.59°C above Pre-industrial. (Least warm is Rome at 1.99 and warmest Koltsovo at 7.52.)

The five Southern stations are much cooler. Rio de Janeiro is now 0.09°C BELOW Pre-industrial. Sydney’s running average increased from 1.21 to 1.52°C in the last 7 days. It is the only southern station in the “orange zone” (above Paris). The five together average 0.57°C above Pre-industrial, giving a 10 station global average of 2.08°C above P-I. This is a rate of warming for the year-to-date that is 47 times the IPCC projection. (The math is simple. The expected IPCC temperature at the end of the year is 1.0652 above P-I. Take this away from 2.08 and divide the result by 0.0217.)

I am quite taken by the difference between the hemispheres this year. Last year the South warmed more than the North.

9_WarmerDays2020

The North is getting a bit warmer and the South a little cooler. The 10-station Globe Warmer Days percentage is currently 52, amusingly the proportion of Brits that voted for Brexit in 2016.

At Eight Weeks

At the end of the first quarter of Meteorological Year 2018/19, the two hemispheres (each represented by 5 Weather Stations) were running Mean Temperatures above Pre-Industrial that differed by only one-hundredth of a degree Centigrade. North 1.31, South 1.32; rounding to a Global figure of 1.32 above P-I.

Things are very different this year. At the end of Week 8, four of the northern stations are in the “red zone” – more than 2°C above P-I. Rome is in the orange zone – above the Paris Target but below two degrees. They combine to yield a hemisphere average of 3.7°C above P-I.

8_NORTH_MeancfP-I

The biggest contributor to this increase in relative warmth is Koltsovo, the coldest of the five stations. (The daily mean there has crept above zero centigrade on just three of the 56 days.)

8_Koltsovo_MeancfP-I

The GFS 10-day weather forecast model shows a huge cold air mass moving east from Europe across the Federation – I’m expecting a dip over the next couple of weeks but it is a long way down to 2 degrees above P-I. It may take a Grand Solar Minimum to get it there by the end of the year.

Of course, returns from the thousands of other northern stations could bring my token average of 3.7C above P-I down to a figure that won’t frighten the horses. I have no way of knowing how representative my Ten Stations are. They could even be giving a false picture. These graphs should only be taken as an indication of what may be happening to global temperatures – and viewed in the context of current climate change hysteria.

After 8 weeks then, my North is running at 2.16°C warmer than the same period last year. My South is 0.7 degrees cooler. Putting the two together gives this chart of my “mini Globe’s” weekly differences, with a slight warming trend.

8_GlobeWkDiff20cf19

 

 

Rio Overheated

Rain in Port Elizabeth hast stopped play in the Third Test a few times in the last couple of days. Summer in South Africa isn’t all that hot. Cape Town warmed a quarter of a degree centigrade last week but the running average for the first 49 days of the meteorological year is only 0.28°C above Pre-Industrial.

In Australia, there has been welcome rain. News reports say it has put out some bushfires. Sydney cooled 0.26°C in seven days, falling to 1.05 degrees above Pre-Industrial, almost bang on the IPCC’s projection for the year.

In South America –

Those who were at Santa Cruz station, in Rio de Janeiro, around 12:45 PM on Saturday, felt as if the temperature was 54.8ºC, slightly over 130ºF. This was the Heat Index registered, on Saturday, January 11th, in the Marvelous City.

The Rio Times

 I get my mean temperature data from Santos Dumont Airport, an hour’s drive from Santa Cruz, (about 60 km). The high there on January 11th was 91°Fahrenheit. I suppose it may have “felt” a lot warmer. January in Rio has been much cooler so far this year than last.

Rio_Jan1to18_Diff2019

Since Week 4 this southern summer, Rio has been bumping along the Pre-Industrial Baseline. Quite a change from 2019 when it ended the summer on the dreaded 2°C above P-I.

Wk7_RIOcfP-I