Mini Ice Age Cancelled

This morning, whatever the weather, I planned to photograph the three benches that feature in Today’s Image.OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

When the trees were cut down a couple of years ago the bench on the right was turned to provide a sea view. I was surprised that the snowy picture was taken in 2012. Memory connects the harsh December with 2010. I’ve checked the Whitby weather data and see that the minimum temperature on this day 2010 was 3.1°C, in 2012 it was minus 2.8 and today, in Filey, 6.2°C. (Weather Underground didn’t host any Filey personal stations back in 2012.)

So, on this particular day of the year, a tiny scrap of the globe has warmed a bit.

Back from my walk, YouTube piqued my interest at coffee break with Mini Ice Age Cancelled. An entertaining seven minutes with a challenging message.

I was inspired to spend much of the day preparing graphs and histograms for Canary’s first end of month report. For the ten years 2008 – 2017, December daily highs trend resolutely upward but at most of my ten sample weather stations, a corner appears to have been turned this month. Ice Age Farmer may be onto something.

Betrayal

You wouldn’t know it from MSM coverage but most of the yellow vest protests in France are peaceful. Paris is the biggest and most frightening anomaly. There is evidence that much of the citizen violence, destruction and looting is done by agents provocateurs. Rural France seems to prefer peaceful civil disobedience and the police don’t intervene.

Meanwhile, in London yesterday, the “ordinary people” asking for the Brexit they voted for were quiet and dignified. None were arrested. The police didn’t have quite such an easy time with Antifa. Although very one-sided, this video gives some sort of “balance”.

A Note from Canary

Nine days of December and in my ten chosen cities 51% of days have been warmer than the ten year average for the month. However, the cold days have been more extreme than the warm in both the northern and southern hemispheres. In the North the daily maximum temperatures are, overall,  .6°F lower than the 2008 to 2017 average for December 1st to 9th. In the South, they are 1.5°F lower. Anomalously warmest city – Rome (winter); coldest – Buenos Aires (summer).

Plenty of time for change this month – but Grand Solar Minimum has its beak in front at the moment. Graphs and histograms to follow early next month.

James at Rest

The grave of James Jackson SMITH (Saturday’s post) is just to the right of the surprisingly leafy tree that hides the east window of the church in Today’s Image. I have added some more information and sources to his pedigree on FamilySearch Tree and penned a rudimentary Life Sketch. I failed to find him in a couple of censuses and the sketch attempts to make a case for his two marriages.  His first marriage, to Elizabeth Harriet CULPIN, gives his two sons a much longer branch than any of his own thus far – to John Culpin (1565 – 1593), a Yorkshireman.

Apropos my little canary…

Beyond the current heatwave, the overall warming trend has disrupted snakes’ breeding cycles, meaning there could potentially be more snakes, acting more aggressively, because they were charged up by the heat.

“So the likelihood of a venomous snake coming into a dwelling to escape the heat is probably a lot more than it used to be,” Mr Modra said.

University of Queensland snake expert Professor Bryan Fry agrees, saying snakes are the “scaly canaries in the coal mine” warning of deeper problems in the ecosystem.

“Snake encounters will go up with this extreme weather as snakes are trying to escape the heat,” Professor Fry said.

Source: Climate Change in Australia (second article from TVNZ), Seemorerocks

My Little Canary

I’ve made an infinitesimal contribution to digging the coal mine but have no idea what is going to happen to us all, eventually, in consequence. More extreme weather events and the extinction of up to 200 species of animal and plant each day are suggested responses to our profligate burning of fossils fuels. But many folk bang on about the global temperature not rising at all for the last twenty years. And more are now voicing the opinion that the climate change hoax is the demon spawn of globalists. With sleeping nationalists/populists waking to fight the likes of the Weasel Macron, the physics that determine our planet’s climate may be lost in the fog of battle.

Enter my canary. I’m not long for this earth so it is gratifying that the timeline to human extinction by “runaway greenhouse” or the onset of a Mini Ice Age is so short. Daily temperatures must rise or fall alarmingly if we are to be roasted by 2026 or deep frozen by 2021.

It is one thing to pour scorn on satellites and the elaborate computer models of climatologists, quite another to cast doubt on the humble thermometer. I’m going to put my faith in such instruments in ten locations around the world and accept their output as reliable. My math skills are not great, but they don’t have to be. The only formula I expect to apply to daily maximum temperatures is ‘Average’.

Some of my first choices of weather stations had to be given up because their data didn’t go back to 2008. I replaced them with stations with a long enough history. My final picks don’t pretend to “represent” global coverage.

Northern Hemisphere: Capital Station, Beijing; Chhatrapati Shivaji International, Mumbai; Koltsovo Station, Novosibirsk; Ciampino Station, Rome; Ronald Reagan Washington National.

Southern Hemisphere: Jorge Newbery Aeroparque, Buenos Aires, Cape Town Station (SA); Santos Dumont Station, Rio de Janeiro; Kingsford Smith International, Sydney, Wellington International (NZ).

I’ll continue gathering data from the Whitby station I’ve “followed” for the last ten years.

Here are three sample graphs/histograms for Whitby in November.

NovemberTEST_graph1

Three things can be discerned amid the jumble of lines.

  • The orange 10-year average smoothes out the extreme differences of individual years.
  • 2018 wasn’t the warmest November since 2008.
  • 2018 was warmer than the 10 year average on 21 days out of 30.

NovemberDaysWarmer

This histogram would seem to indicate that the warmest November was in 2011, followed by 2014, 2015 and then 2018.

The top four by the average monthly temperature were:-

2011: 12.43°C

2015: 11.98

2014: 11.2

2009: 11.16

2018 came in fifth at 11.05°C. The coldest November was 2016 (max average 8.34°C). This was a surprise given the sudden decline into snow and ice in 2010, but that November had a warm beginning and middle. And after a very cold start, 2011 clearly heated up to take its top spot (above).

Another way of representing the maximum daily temperature data is to plot how each November average departs from the 10-year average.

NovMthAvCF10yr

Adding the trendline indicates that Novembers from 2008 to 2018 warmed slightly. If you add the departures from the 10-year average of the 4 pink columns to the 6 light blue you get, in this instance, zero. (That’s averages for you.) The rise in November temperature over the 11 years is, therefore, 1°C, the 2018 difference.

The dotty trendline is useful nonetheless. If the trendlines each month rise more steeply over the next year (or two), it would indicate progress towards perhaps significant warming. And if they fall, buy more warm clothing and an extra duvet – and hope the gas and electricity stay on.

I have made a start preparing Beijing in December. Whereas Whitby warmth is up and down between 2008 and 2017 (with six years cooler than average), Beijing’s five warmer than average years are all in the second half of the ten year period.

BeijingDecemberDraft

Note: The Beijing temperatures are in Fahrenheit. The minus 8.4°F in 2012 equates to about 4.4°C below the December 10 year average.

Onward and upward, or maybe downward. Sing, canary, sing.

Getting Warmer

Today’s Press Release from the Met Office, which received a few seconds of attention on BBC radio news programs this morning, couldn’t have been better timed for Today’s Image.

The difference eight years make! Here’s Filey seafront today –

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

How the trees have grown! As for the risen temperature, a decade is not nearly long enough to bring “climate change” into play. You need 30 years of weather data, at least, before hazarding observations about our atmospheric future.

In 2010 there wasn’t a Weather Underground PWS (Private Weather Station) in Filey to consult, but on the morning of 26 November 2010 the temperature in Whitby, thirty miles away, fell to -0.3°C. Today in the same place the minimum reached overnight was 5.28°C. Such differences on the same day of the year from one year to another, or on different days in the same month, are not unusual and are, obviously, survivable. Cold snaps and heatwaves often last only a few days here in the UK. What the Met Office doesn’t say in its Press Release is that, if summer temperatures here do rise by 5.4°C by 2070, and winter temperatures by 4.2°C, and stay so high for weeks on end, there may not be many humans around to “enjoy” them.

In the 20th century, the global temperature rose by 0.7 to 0.9°C, according to the climate.gov website. That rate has doubled in the last 40 years. So in 50 more years, add 0.9°C more. This seems rather conservative, and the UK Met Office appears to agree. On YouTube, Dahr Jamail explains the timid projections of the IPCC in 14 uncomfortable minutes.

Anyone for Tennis?

BBC Radio Five Live woke me this morning with news that “heat issues” in New York City had forced the retirement of five male competitors in the US Open. The chaps considered conditions were “dangerous”, with the on-court temperature at 38ºC, and 50% humidity.  Tournament organizers implemented an extreme heat policy in men’s matches for the first time. I wonder what conditions will be like next year.

CNN comes in for much criticism and ridicule for the propaganda it serves up in its “News” broadcasts, but this afternoon I happened upon a report by Clarissa Ward from the most rapidly warming part of the world – the Arctic – and I can’t find a single degree of fault with it.

IdlibProvSyriaA warning of a different kind has been put out by the Russian military – of a possible chemical weapon attack on civilians in Idlib province. “Rebel” shipments of chlorine have been tracked to the small town of Jisr al-Shughur (inset)  and on to a village nearby. Waiting there for their fifteen minutes of dubious fame are Assad-hating Syrians who will play dead for White Helmeted videographers. Their performance will be all over social media in no time. The Syrian government will be blamed for killing its own citizens and the Axis of Evil, all too predictably, will launch Tomahawk missiles into Damascus. Time to be ashamed of being British again.

The Russian Federation did not respond to the April false flag attack in Douma. But very soon the Eastern Mediterranean will be hosting fleets of armed-to-the-teeth vessels from both sides. What could possibly go wrong?

I’m not sure my countrymen and women are concerned that they are not being informed about another upcoming conflict sparked by lies. They are just happy that Strictly Come Dancing and The Great British Bake Off are back on their TV screens.  Christmas can’t be far away.

Looking Up

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The morning sky above the bay this morning was a picture. (This photo was taken about 20 minutes after Today’s Image of the willowherb.) Impossible to say how natural the clouds were but after recent posts by Dane Wigington I had to wonder if the hand of man had messed with them.

Stranger things might happen. Dane may find himself Time magazine’s Man of the Year sometime fairly soon. But only if millions of citizens hear his message and successfully rise up against the madness of geoengineering.

Climate Engineering  Wildfires to Temporarily Cool Earth

Geoengineering Watch Global Alert News #159