Rio Overheated

Rain in Port Elizabeth hast stopped play in the Third Test a few times in the last couple of days. Summer in South Africa isn’t all that hot. Cape Town warmed a quarter of a degree centigrade last week but the running average for the first 49 days of the meteorological year is only 0.28°C above Pre-Industrial.

In Australia, there has been welcome rain. News reports say it has put out some bushfires. Sydney cooled 0.26°C in seven days, falling to 1.05 degrees above Pre-Industrial, almost bang on the IPCC’s projection for the year.

In South America –

Those who were at Santa Cruz station, in Rio de Janeiro, around 12:45 PM on Saturday, felt as if the temperature was 54.8ºC, slightly over 130ºF. This was the Heat Index registered, on Saturday, January 11th, in the Marvelous City.

The Rio Times

 I get my mean temperature data from Santos Dumont Airport, an hour’s drive from Santa Cruz, (about 60 km). The high there on January 11th was 91°Fahrenheit. I suppose it may have “felt” a lot warmer. January in Rio has been much cooler so far this year than last.

Rio_Jan1to18_Diff2019

Since Week 4 this southern summer, Rio has been bumping along the Pre-Industrial Baseline. Quite a change from 2019 when it ended the summer on the dreaded 2°C above P-I.

Wk7_RIOcfP-I

 

Wombats to the Rescue

The estimated death toll for all animals in the Australian bushfires has doubled in just a few days to over a billion. I was a sucker for the story of wombats encouraging other species of critter into their safe, deep burrows. Proof, if any was needed, that dumb animals are superior to wise apes (aka clever morons). Learning just now that the yarn is not true doesn’t change my opinion one whit.

The argument over how much human activity has contributed to global warming may never end. There seems little doubt that human agency is responsible for much of the destruction caused by bushfires in Australia. Arson and inadequate clearance of combustible materials in vulnerable areas of a drought-stricken country come readily to mind. The rapidity of the burning, the apocalyptic fierceness of the flames (with random explosions), and the melting of vehicles while tree branches above remain unburned – all open up the possibility that psychopaths are involved, with their direct energy weapons, and accelerants dropped by planes engaged in weather modification. A tin foil hat is not required to at least look into such possibilities yourself.

Sydney Airport is one of my monitored weather stations. For my sins, I listen to BBC News and have been brainwashed into thinking that the bushfires are worse in Australia this year because it is hotter. Well, it isn’t hotter in Sydney. It is true that there has been a drop in temperature in the last week, and if this is a nationwide thing it may give the firefighters some respite.

Summer in Sydney, so far, looks a bit like this.

6_Sydney_TabovePI

The week to week rise and fall this year is crazily like that of 2018/19 (2019 for simplicity). It is, however, half a degree centigrade cooler at the end of Week 6 this year. It isn’t just heatwaves fueling the fires then.

Here is another perspective.

6_Sydney_MeanWkTemp

2012 was the coolest summer of the Ten Years from 2009 to 2018, and 2017 the warmest. At Week 6, Sydney is 0.31°C above the 10 Year Average. It follows that it was 0.81 degrees warmer than average last year.

So, Sydney is currently 1.31°C above Pre-Industrial whilst Durham Tees in Northern England is 2.56 degrees above P-I and 0.91°C warmer than at the same time last year.

6_DurhamTees_TabovePI

Two Weeks…

…into the current Meteorological Year, how much is the temperature rising at the Ten Stations?

The Northern Hemisphere has experienced warming that the IPCC isn’t expecting until 2095 – at 2.96°C above Pre-Industrial. Fortunately, the South is bang on the 1.06 degrees the IPCC projected at the end of the year. So in two weeks, the mini Globe has only warmed 38 times as quickly as the IPCC imagined.

The main driver of warmth in The Ten is Koltsovo. In Week 2 it was 4.51°C warmer than at the same time last year, 6.23 degrees above P-I and with a Warming Rate of x238. Eighteen hundred kilometres to the west, Moscow is having a similar experience.

Obviously, all the stations will have weeks of relatively low temperatures in the coming months (north and south) and who knows, by the end of the Met Year they will as a group be close to the IPCC Projection. They may even go below the projected 1.06 degrees. In some graphs I have seen online, the Grand Solar Minimum, the Maunder feel-alike, is expected to take up residence in 2020.

The mythical Sam Carana, at Arctic News, is nonetheless doubling down on his gloomy prognostications of human extinction by 2026. He makes a case for us all departing this life in the coming calendar year.

Extinction and “Global Warming is a hoax” are clearly poles apart. Speaking of which, the GFS 10 Day forecast on Climate Reanalyzer has the Arctic at 2.3°C warmer than expected today but falling to -0.6 a week from now. The Antarctic hovers around 1.6 to 2.0 degrees warmer for the coming 10 days and the World stays mostly within a range of +0.3 to +0.6 (14 to 28 times warmer than the IPCC bargains for.

Here are Week Two graphics for the Ten Stations in Two Hemispheres, plus Durham Tees.

Week2_NorthPlus

Week2_SouthPlus.jpg

Gathering the data and constructing the graphs takes me away from the main task of putting headstone photos on the FamilySearch Shared Tree, so I won’t be doing weather posts every week. I’ll perhaps do an update after each completed month, with an occasional Week Graph if it illustrates something extreme or unexpected. In the media in Week 2 much was made of the heatwave expected in New South Wales that would intensify the bushfires. Notice above that Sydney is roughly in the middle of the green Goldilocks zone. The daily high peaked at 108°F yesterday but fell to 79 degrees (26.11°C) today. Records in Oz may be broken again as summer progresses. Across the Tasman, Wellington was the only one of the southern five in the red. The New Zealand capital may not cool down any time soon.

Weather Catch-Up

I’m still working on the Ten Stations but here is a graph showing the Daily Mean Temperature above Pre-Industrial Baseline for Durham Tees over the last ten weeks. The tenth week included the heatwave and its effect on the Year to Date average is clear. The Five Northern Hemisphere Stations include Rome, which also experienced the heatwave – but the other stations have diluted its impact.

DT&NH_25to34

Bear in mind that my Pre-Industrial Baseline is 0.85° below the 10 Year Mean (Meteorological Year 2008/9 to 2017/18), calculated daily for each station and averaged for the Hemispheres and Globe. I’ve given the start and end Mean temperatures for this period and “the math” is easy – indicating that Durham Tees is running cooler than the Ten Year average, and the five Northern Hemisphere stations warmer. (The southern hemisphere is warmer still.) This doesn’t necessarily indicate that global warming continues have the upper hand. I heard one amateur climate scientist declare on YouTube a couple of days ago that the recent European heatwave is a clear indication that the Grand Solar minimum is underway. He could be right, but Bob Henson’s “Full Scoop” points the finger at greenhouse gases. (Note that Bob mentions an observed 1°C rise in global temperature over the last century, making my 0.85-degree rise since, say, 1750, appear conservative.)

Anthropogenic Temperature Change

On my second visit to Weather Underground last month I found that the Mean Temperatures of my Ten Stations were now being delivered to one decimal place (in degrees Fahrenheit). Maximum and minimum daily temperatures were still presented in whole degrees. I was happy with this change but dismayed on the next visit to find the more accurate mean temperatures rounded again to whole degrees.

Not that it matters much. Converting the Fahrenheit data offers the opportunity to present the Centigrade temperatures to two decimal places. This semblance of greater accuracy makes me feel better but nobody should be fooled.

Halfway through this meteorological year and it is still not clear that there is a long term trend to the greater warming of “Climate Change” or the cooling brought on by the promised Grand Solar Minimum.

Here are two Tables for Week 26, with Durham Tees figures added, replacing the no longer available Whitby/Filey data.

26_Table1

After several decidedly cool weeks, warmth returned to North East England – and five of the Ten Stations were more than 2 above Pre-Industrial. Rome hasn’t yet shaken off its cold.

26_Table2

The second Table shows the Year to Date running average of daily Mean temperatures, with the stations ranged from warm to cool. Koltsovo has lost its top spot to Rio de Janeiro but there’s not much between them. Sydney and Wellington are also running neck and neck. These four stations are the only ones likely to change ranking positions over the next six months.

If you recall, my Pre-Industrial Baseline is 0.85 below the average of 10 years of Mean temperatures (calculated daily for each station). The “cf10yr” column saves you having to do the mental arithmetic. The “above P-I” figures are companions to the Global Warming narrative – “we must not go above two degrees C”. The “10yr” figures show how much warmer or cooler this meteorological year is than the average for 2008/9 to 2017/18. You would expect roughly half of the stations to be warmer than average. How much warmer (or cooler) may come as a surprise.

I have twinned my Ten Stations. The “warmest” northern hemisphere station is chummed with the “coolest” in the south…and so on. Over a rolling five-week cycle I will offer graphs for each set of twins, beginning with Koltsovo and Buenos Aires.

Here’s a suite of charts/graphs/histograms. See what you make of them.

Wks22to26KoltBA

Figures

I noticed a few days ago that March was Earth’s second warmest on record. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground offered some figures. NOAA’s top five “warmest departures from average” since record keeping began place last month equal fifth, with January 2016, at +1.06°C. (March 2016 was top at +1.24°C.)

How do my 10 stations compare? With a range of +4.36 in Koltsovo to -1.56 in Mumbai they combined to average +0.96°C in March.

(It will be interesting to see if Mumbai suffers the terrible heat of the past few days. May is usually the hottest month in Madhya Pradesh but in Khargone on Sunday the temperature reached 47.5°C. Nine of the ten hottest places in the world on the 28th April were in India. Chauk in Myanmar was in 8th place.)

My results would appear to fit quite well with NOAA’s global assessment – but my notional rise is calculated from the beginning of the 18th century, about 170 years “before records began”. This is another indication that 0.85°C above the 10-Year baseline (meteorological years 2008/9 to 2017/18) could be on the low side.

Dr Guy McPherson is on record as stating that global temperature increased by 0.85°C  from pre-industrial (no date is given) to 2009. Warming then increased considerably to the present, adding a further 0.9°C. This will be unbelievable to those, like David Icke and Donald Trump, who believe “global warming” is a hoax.

If you are able to accept, for argument’s sake, that warming has indeed increased to 1.75°C above pre-industrial globally then we can forget the Paris Agreement of 2015. We are about to blast through 2°C this year if we haven’t done so already.

Here is a table showing the figures for the last full week available from the Ten Stations (7-day average). I will stick at 0.85°C, knowing it is almost certainly the lowest reasonable estimate in assessing global temperature. I have added the variation given by a middling increase in warming (+1.1°C) and a McPherson top of the range 1.75°C.

This has been the warmest week of the Met Year so far – and the arithmetic effect on global warming is rather obvious. It will be interesting to see where April 2019 stands in NOAA’s Warmest charts. You will be able to find evidence online that the Grand Solar Minimum has already begun but, so far, it is shunning my Ten Stations.

2019_MetWk21

At the end of the day, I watched The Battle Against Climate Change by Paul Kingsnorth. Recommended.

Greta Abused

The lugubrious chaps at UK Column News, fresh from their Easter break (not that you’d notice), opened today with an attack on climate change/global warming and its poster child du jour, Greta Thunberg. They put up a picture of the young Swedish activist with a smiling Jeremy Corbyn and followed with a tweet from  Jezza’s know-it-all bro, Piers.

20190424_PiersCorbyn

It seems to me that Greta is simply following a different drummer. It may not be too long before she and her elders, but maybe not betters, understand beyond all doubt which way Planet Cookie is going to crumble.

The newscasters march behind the climate sceptics and introduced an article by Mark Carney, The financial sector must be at the heart of tackling climate change. Brian Gerrish concluded:-

These people are dangerously mad, because what are these massive risks? Did he give any examples of what these massive risks are in the paper? Perhaps he does, perhaps he doesn’t. But we can’t solve the simple things, the potholes in the road, but we are going to tackle global climate change, even though the evidence is not there in the first place. (My emphasis.)

 

One of Messrs Gerrish and Robinson’s favourite japes is to feature material emanating from the government propaganda machine (the BBC) and hit it with a cartoon FAKE NEWS stamp. So it is amusing to see them trash, in a dozen words, the careers of countless climate scientists, and dismiss the campaigning of the world’s worried schoolchildren. Oh, mustn’t forget the sensibilities of this dotty old geezer, who has been presenting nature and environment programs for the BBC since I was a nipper. Maybe I have been brainwashed, but the risks look rather big to me, wherever I look.