Mumbai Warming

The Weather Station at Chhatrapati Shivaji International, Mumbai, returns the highest mean daily temperatures of my Northern Hemisphere Five. It is, however, bottom of the Ten Station Table for Year-to-Date Mean Temperature above my Pre-Industrial Baseline.

37_NorthYTDetc

From Week 8 through to 27 Mumbai was running a temperature below Pre-Industrial so its current state represents significant warming. Here are the Year-to-Date temperatures (°C) at the end of each month.

Mumbai_DecToJul

Some observers are already certain that 2019 is going to be the Earth’s hottest year on record. India has experienced periods of extreme heat this year, and water shortages are a great concern in parts of the sub-continent, but Mumbai is clearly not going to be contributing much to a global temperature record if it happens. However, seven of the last ten weeks have registered average Mean Temperatures above the Paris Accord ”target” of 1.5°C.

wks28to37_Mumbai

Here’s the Week 37 Table. Rome was toasty but, as indicated above, a bit chilly in the north-east of England.

37_FullTable

Cool Rio

Before the temperature data stopped flowing out of Weather Underground, I thought my Stations had settled into a Top Ten that wouldn’t change. But in Week 33, after normal service resumed, there were some rather extreme figures which returned Koltsovo to Number 1, Buenos Aires moved up to 6th (after propping up the table for the first five weeks of the meteorological year), and Mumbai pushed Rome into tenth place. The bottom two swapped places the following week and the top two the week after. The latest Table looks like this –

36_Ranking

You will notice immediately that all ten stations now have a running average Mean Daily Temperature below the feared 2°C.

Positions may change again but I’m going to do Sunday posts for the rest of the year that will feature just one of the ten stations, starting with the “warmest”, then the “coldest” in the northern hemisphere, and so on.

After the heatwaves, things have cooled noticeably. The Ten returned a temperature of only 0.26°C above Pre-Industrial last week. (My weeks, by the way, run from Saturday to Friday.)

36_FullTable

You will see from this full Table, with added DurhamTees data, that my nearest reliable local station broke through the two-degree barrier – but for the year-to-date is nonetheless running 0.47°C cooler than the “Ten Station Globe”.

Here is the first of the 10-week cycle set of graphs.

wks27to36_Rio

The ten-week histogram shows Rio’s almost 3.5°C range in average Mean Temperature above Pre-Industrial, and there’s no need for an added trendline to indicate the cooling. The small Rio graph for last week does, however, indicate how much it warmed from the Sunday low point. It didn’t feel particularly warm on the Yorkshire Coast last week but the figures suggest otherwise.

Recent Category 6 posts on Weather Underground have included –

Baked Alaska: State Endures Warmest Month on Record

U.S. Racks Up Wettest Calendar Year to Date

New Models Point to More Global Warming Than Expected

European Scientists: July 2019 Hottest Month on Record

A website with different fish to fry has an elderly but useful post about Eddy. Either way, we have been warned.

Anthropogenic Temperature Change

On my second visit to Weather Underground last month I found that the Mean Temperatures of my Ten Stations were now being delivered to one decimal place (in degrees Fahrenheit). Maximum and minimum daily temperatures were still presented in whole degrees. I was happy with this change but dismayed on the next visit to find the more accurate mean temperatures rounded again to whole degrees.

Not that it matters much. Converting the Fahrenheit data offers the opportunity to present the Centigrade temperatures to two decimal places. This semblance of greater accuracy makes me feel better but nobody should be fooled.

Halfway through this meteorological year and it is still not clear that there is a long term trend to the greater warming of “Climate Change” or the cooling brought on by the promised Grand Solar Minimum.

Here are two Tables for Week 26, with Durham Tees figures added, replacing the no longer available Whitby/Filey data.

26_Table1

After several decidedly cool weeks, warmth returned to North East England – and five of the Ten Stations were more than 2 above Pre-Industrial. Rome hasn’t yet shaken off its cold.

26_Table2

The second Table shows the Year to Date running average of daily Mean temperatures, with the stations ranged from warm to cool. Koltsovo has lost its top spot to Rio de Janeiro but there’s not much between them. Sydney and Wellington are also running neck and neck. These four stations are the only ones likely to change ranking positions over the next six months.

If you recall, my Pre-Industrial Baseline is 0.85 below the average of 10 years of Mean temperatures (calculated daily for each station). The “cf10yr” column saves you having to do the mental arithmetic. The “above P-I” figures are companions to the Global Warming narrative – “we must not go above two degrees C”. The “10yr” figures show how much warmer or cooler this meteorological year is than the average for 2008/9 to 2017/18. You would expect roughly half of the stations to be warmer than average. How much warmer (or cooler) may come as a surprise.

I have twinned my Ten Stations. The “warmest” northern hemisphere station is chummed with the “coolest” in the south…and so on. Over a rolling five-week cycle I will offer graphs for each set of twins, beginning with Koltsovo and Buenos Aires.

Here’s a suite of charts/graphs/histograms. See what you make of them.

Wks22to26KoltBA