Cold Snaps

Ice Age Farmer and Adapt 2030 have reported on the unseasonal cold weather afflicting parts of the globe recently. The last couple of weeks here on the Yorkshire Coast have been chilly.

A couple of months ago my “local” weather stations, hosted by Weather Underground, shut down to all intents and purposes. One stopped reporting altogether and the other put out data that seemed unreliable. The nearest station I could find with data going back to 2008, and likely to operate for years to come, is Durham Tees Airport.  It is 50 straight-line miles away and inland, so it isn’t a satisfactory proxy for Filey. It will have to do.

Durham Tees data do show very clearly the influence of the recent cold spell on Mean Daily temperatures.

The Durham Tees average temperature for Week 22 (27 April to 3 May) was 0.55℃ BELOW the Pre-Industrial Baseline. Week 23 wasn’t remotely “brutal” but was nonetheless 6.7℃ BELOW Pre-Industrial. The weekly running average from the beginning of the meteorological year dropped from 1.21℃ above Pre-Industrial to 0.87℃ in 7 days.

The global mean temperature, as represented by my 10 chosen weather stations rose slightly from 1.22 to 1.25℃ above Pre-Industrial in the same period.

This is how the year-to-date looks for the Globe and Durham Tees in a simple line graph.

Durham&Globe_MetYrto23

This begins to put Europe’s record spring cold (and May snows) into context.

Note that five of the 23 weeks in Durham exceeded the Paris Accord target.

I don’t think anyone can say for sure which way things are going to trend in the next year or two. Either way may seriously impact on food supply but, as far as the “argument” goes, it doesn’t seem unreasonable now to call both global warming and the grand solar minimum “hoaxes”, so that we might concentrate our minds on man-made evils that have, perhaps, solutions that are more readily achievable.

Here is the Week 23 “League Table” for the 10 Weather Stations.

Wk23_10StnTable

The YTD (year-to-date) column gives the daily mean running average above/below Pre-Industrial (℃) for each station on 10 May 2019.

Warming

Five months into this meteorological year, the ten Weather Stations I’ve chosen to stand as a proxy for Global Mean Temperatures are showing a rise of 0.33°C above the 2008/9 to 2017/18 average. (Add 0.85°C to get my notional “above Pre-Industrial” figure.)

DecAprMeanCF10yr

April was much cooler than March in the Northern Hemisphere but a little warmer in the south. You don’t really need a graph to visualise the sharp rise in both hemispheres from December to January and the rather gentle peaks and troughs since then.

I’m still checking my data tables for errors but the way I’ve set them up makes it quick and easy to add up the number of days that are as warm or warmer than the day before. This is more a fun thing to do and the results shouldn’t be taken seriously.

DecApr_10StationsWarmerDays

The northern hemisphere dip of 0.06°C from March to April has no effect on this “warmer days” lark. For now, though, it does look as if the Grand Solar Minimum is a thing of the future. Once it begins to bite, a graph like this will surely indicate that it’s downhill all the way, for who knows how long.