Durham Tees Airport is about 70 miles from Filey but closer Stations providing data to Weather Underground became unreliable after a while.
In the beginning I arrived at a Pre-Industrial baseline by averaging ten meteorological years of daily mean temperatures (2008/9 to 2017/8) and adding 0.85°C – on the assumption that a global rise of this amount could be reasonably applied. In 2018 the IPCC declared that Earth had warmed by 1°C between the start of the Industrial Revolution and 2017, so I altered my spreadsheets “to fit”. Yesterday, I menioned my wheeze of an “IPCC Unit” – the amount the temperature must rise annually to the end of November 2040 to reach the “Paris Target” of 1.5 degrees above Pre-Industrial. Ignoring pesky 366th days gives a daily rise of 0.0000596°C. By the end of Week 46 of this meteorological year my version of the globe has therefore notionally warmed to 1.08442 degrees above Pre-Industrial.
Three days ago Durham Tees was running at 1.77°C above P-I. At the beginning of summer (Week 26) this figure was just 1.06°C. Last year, summer began at 2.34°C above P-I and cooled to 1.8 degrees.
In 2014 it was warmer still at Week 46, reaching the dreaded 2°C. To be more exact,1.997 degrees, and rising further to 2.05°C by the year’s end. Fortunately, there have been enough cool years since 2008 to bring the above Pre-Industrial average down to a comfortable level.
Accepting a one degree above P-I figure for all years from 2008 to 2017, and then going with my interpretation of the steady rise to the IPCC’s 2040 projection gives the following graph.
Two calculations –
So, this meteorological year is currently running31.6 times warmer than the IPCC projection.
But if 14 years of Warming are averaged the Rate falls to just 2.2. Nothing to see in North East England then. Hot air blowing down from Glasgow in a couple of weeks can be ignored. There are too many other things to worry about.
April seemed unusually cold on the Yorkshire Coast, and May cold and wet. But the mean temperature data from the Durham Tees weather station indicates the season was actually a tiny bit warmer than the average for the last thirteen years.
It was maybe the seemingly relentless wind that chilled us.
Note the trend line in the above chart. Perhaps north-east England is anomalous because a Government Report out this month tells us we should not just be afraid of catching ‘flu. (Gee, I hope I don’t get a Delta Variant runny nose.) UK Column extracted a quote from the Report for their bulletin yesterday.
You may recall that the IPCC claimed in 2017 that the global average temperature had increased by one degree centigrade since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and projected it would reach 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial by 2040.
Taking the running average mean temperatures from the start of the current meteorological year, two of the five northern hemisphere weather stations I monitor (other than Durham Tees) were well above the dreaded 2°C by the end of Spring. Mumbai at 2.66 and Shanghai 2.42. Koltsovo, which has been very warm over the last few years, has cooled to a smidgen over the “Paris Target” of 1.5°C. Four of the five southern hemisphere stations have been quite cool throughout their autumn, with Cape Town being only 0.47 degrees above P-I. The 10 stations representing the Globe average 1.23°C above Pre-Industrial. If one gives each day since the end of November 2017 an equal bite of the 0.5°C rise to 2040, the projected global temperature at the end of Q 2 this year is 1.08 degrees. My Ten Stations collectively are therefore warming seven times faster than projected. Durham Tees is cooling by a little less than one “IPCC Unit” (0.02174°C per year).
Returning to Durham Tees, below is a graph showing the progression of mean temperature above Pre-Industrial through the warmest spring of the last 13 years, the coolest, and for the last three years.
This clearly shows that April and May this year were indeed chillier than March but in following 2019’s trend the season ended up distinctly average.
A prediction that the globe may warm by about a degree centigrade over the next few months because of reduced fossil fuel burning is still a reasonable bet. Last week, six of my Ten Stations were cooler than the week before, but by such small amounts that the “mini Globe” warmed by 0.008°C.
Seven of the stations were warmer in Week 16 than the week before. Going against the trend of the meteorological year so far, the southern hemisphere was warmer than the north (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline). The rise was 0.021°C. This may seem insignificant but it is an IPCC year’s worth of extra heat in the projection game.
Millions of locked down people have other things to worry about but there’s no escaping climate and environmental matters with Greta and Prince Charles catching Covid-19.
Last year, my five southern hemisphere stations came within a whisker of going above the Paris Accord target. By week 4 this meteorological year they fell to a running average mean temperature of 0.55°C and bumped along at that level to the end of summer.
The first two relatively warm weeks ensured an overall cooling trend.
The northern winter’s somewhat extreme warmth (represented by the five stations) was more than enough keep my “mini-globe” at two degrees centigrade or more above the Pre-Industrial baseline for 9 of the 13 weeks, and above Paris for all but the first week.
Will the 5 southern stations warm enough in the next nine months to reach the IPCC projection of 1.065°C above P-I? This would seem unlikely as Climate Change sceptics have recently been pointing to the extreme winter cold in the northern hemisphere!
“Meanwhile, Europe is et to be hit by a brutal Arctic blast that will cause temperatures to plummet and heavy snow to strike this week…Motorists across large swathes of Britain faced a severe ice risk while driving home the other night after 300 schools were closed. Britain enters Spring this week but you’d be forgiven for thinking that Global Warming has gone on strike, with snow expected to blanket large parts of Britain over the next few weeks. And in places up north, it is expected to be twelve inches deep.”
Vivid stuff, huh? If you want to see pictures, check out Rowan Dean on Sky Australia (start at 4.30). I can’t recall seeing any snow on the Yorkshire coast this winter and have only needed to wear gloves on three of my 180 walks.
Rowan goes on to describe the recent chilling of the United States, going against the grain of my Washington DC temperatures, (ending winter at 1.87 degrees C above Pre-Industrial), and a Weather Underground blog post – February Wraps Up One of Warmest US Winters on Record.
A few weeks ago we experienced the “greatest June heatwave in European history”. NOAA and NASA agreed that it was the warmest June since record-keeping began. Another European heatwave kicked off in the UK today. There is a small chance that 2019 will be the warmest year since 1880. (See Dr Jeff Masters July 18 post on Weather Underground.)
After 24 days without data, I was able to resume the monitoring of my Ten Weather Stations and Durham Tees today. The service resumed on the 9th of July. I have filled empty days with averages for three eight-day periods that I hope won’t compromise the month, season and year running averages. I’m sure all stations have the actual data and maybe Weather Underground will provide the missing figures eventually.
The temperature data stream dried up on 15 June, the end of Week 28 (Meteorological Year) and began flowing again midway through Week 32. Week 33 is the first “good” week after the resumption. Here is a Table showing what has happened at my Stations in the downtime. I don’t feel the figures are significantly compromised because they represent the running average of the Mean Daily Temperature, calculated weekly, from the beginning of December 2018.
Remember, these are Mean Temperatures above a Pre-Industrial Baseline calculated by deducting 0.85°C from the 10 Year Daily Average (2008/9 to 2017/18) for each Station. The Ten Stations in the Table have been ranked from warmest above P-I to coolest in Week 28. The main takeaway from this Table is that the “warmest” Stations are (mostly) cooling, and the “coolest” are currently warming.