A Little Bit Warmer

A prediction that the globe may warm by about a degree centigrade over the next few months because of reduced fossil fuel burning is still a reasonable bet. Last week, six of my Ten Stations were cooler than the week before, but by such small amounts that the “mini Globe” warmed by 0.008°C.

Seven of the stations were warmer in Week 16 than the week before. Going against the trend of the meteorological year so far, the southern hemisphere was warmer than the north (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline). The rise was 0.021°C. This may seem insignificant but it is an IPCC year’s worth of extra heat in the projection game.

Wk16_MeanIncDecr_10

Millions of locked down people have other things to worry about but there’s no escaping climate and environmental matters with Greta and Prince Charles catching Covid-19.

The Southern Summer

Last year, my five southern hemisphere stations came within a whisker of going above the Paris Accord target. By week 4 this meteorological year they fell to a running average mean temperature of 0.55°C and bumped along at that level to the end of summer.

SouthSUMMER20cfP-I

The first two relatively warm weeks ensured an overall cooling trend.

SouthSUMMER20cf19DIFF

The northern winter’s somewhat extreme warmth (represented by the five stations) was more than enough keep my “mini-globe” at two degrees centigrade or more above the Pre-Industrial baseline for 9 of the 13 weeks, and above Paris for all but the first week.

GlobeQ1_20cfP-I

Will the 5 southern stations warm enough in the next nine months to reach the IPCC projection of 1.065°C above P-I? This would seem unlikely as Climate Change sceptics have recently been pointing to the extreme winter cold in the northern hemisphere!

“Meanwhile, Europe is et to be hit by a brutal Arctic blast that will cause temperatures to plummet and heavy snow to strike this week…Motorists across large swathes of Britain faced a severe ice risk while driving home the other night after 300 schools were closed. Britain enters Spring this week but you’d be forgiven for thinking that Global Warming has gone on strike, with snow expected to blanket large parts of Britain over the next few weeks. And in places up north, it is expected to be twelve inches deep.”

Vivid stuff, huh? If you want to see pictures, check out Rowan Dean on Sky Australia (start at 4.30). I can’t recall seeing any snow on the Yorkshire coast this winter and have only needed to wear gloves on three of my 180 walks.

Rowan goes on to describe the recent chilling of the United States, going against the grain of my Washington DC temperatures, (ending winter at 1.87 degrees C above Pre-Industrial), and a Weather Underground blog post – February Wraps Up One of Warmest US Winters on Record.

Heat

A few weeks ago we experienced the “greatest June heatwave in European history”. NOAA and NASA agreed that it was the warmest June since record-keeping began. Another European heatwave kicked off in the UK today. There is a small chance that 2019 will be the warmest year since 1880. (See Dr Jeff Masters July 18 post on Weather Underground.)

After 24 days without data, I was able to resume the monitoring of my Ten Weather Stations and Durham Tees today. The service resumed on the 9th of July. I have filled empty days with averages for three eight-day periods that I hope won’t compromise the month, season and year running averages. I’m sure all stations have the actual data and maybe Weather Underground will provide the missing figures eventually.

The temperature data stream dried up on 15 June, the end of Week 28 (Meteorological Year) and began flowing again midway through Week 32. Week 33 is the first “good” week after the resumption. Here is a Table showing what has happened at my Stations in the downtime. I don’t feel the figures are significantly compromised because they represent the running average of the Mean Daily Temperature, calculated weekly, from the beginning of December 2018.

MissingWeeks

Remember, these are Mean Temperatures above a Pre-Industrial Baseline calculated by deducting 0.85°C from the 10 Year Daily Average (2008/9 to 2017/18) for each Station. The Ten Stations in the Table have been ranked from warmest above P-I to coolest in Week 28. The main takeaway from this Table is that the “warmest” Stations are (mostly) cooling, and the “coolest” are currently warming.