Rio Overheated

Rain in Port Elizabeth hast stopped play in the Third Test a few times in the last couple of days. Summer in South Africa isn’t all that hot. Cape Town warmed a quarter of a degree centigrade last week but the running average for the first 49 days of the meteorological year is only 0.28°C above Pre-Industrial.

In Australia, there has been welcome rain. News reports say it has put out some bushfires. Sydney cooled 0.26°C in seven days, falling to 1.05 degrees above Pre-Industrial, almost bang on the IPCC’s projection for the year.

In South America –

Those who were at Santa Cruz station, in Rio de Janeiro, around 12:45 PM on Saturday, felt as if the temperature was 54.8ºC, slightly over 130ºF. This was the Heat Index registered, on Saturday, January 11th, in the Marvelous City.

The Rio Times

 I get my mean temperature data from Santos Dumont Airport, an hour’s drive from Santa Cruz, (about 60 km). The high there on January 11th was 91°Fahrenheit. I suppose it may have “felt” a lot warmer. January in Rio has been much cooler so far this year than last.

Rio_Jan1to18_Diff2019

Since Week 4 this southern summer, Rio has been bumping along the Pre-Industrial Baseline. Quite a change from 2019 when it ended the summer on the dreaded 2°C above P-I.

Wk7_RIOcfP-I

 

The Difference a Day Makes

The final week of Meteorological Year 2018/19 had eight days in it. This year “Met Weeks” run from Sunday to Saturday – and Sunday is Temperature taking day. There is clearly an opportunity now to compare 2019/20 with last year, but I hope to present findings in a simpler, clearer fashion. I created some tables and graphs today that even I can’t understand.

Given that “climate emergency” is now mainstream, I’d like to keep a finger on the pulse, using data that are (I hope) trustworthy. (New Meteorological Year resolution – I’m going to try not to make any more silly calculation mistakes. I’ve found a few after posting, though they rarely exceed tenths of a degree and so have possibly gone unnoticed.)

One tidbit from today’s labours. Durham Tees, the “coldest” of the eleven stations last year, was the “warmest” in the first week of the new year. It returned a Mean temperature of 3.14°C above (my) Pre-Industrial baseline. Last year it averaged just 0.55 degrees above P-I, so in one week my “home patch” warmed at a rate 119 times higher than projected by the IPCC. Mumbai was second at 100 times warmer.

There is no need to panic. Six of the 10 Stations were cooler and cool enough to bring the IPCC “multiplier” down to x2 for “the Globe”. Phew!

Year-End

A new meteorological year begins.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change asks a question.

GlobalWarming1.5C

It seems a bit odd that this graph offers 1850 to 1900 as “pre-industrial”. But, moving on, the Panel’s one degree goes up against my 0.85°C rise since around 1700 (when Abraham Darby began using coke in his iron furnaces).

20191201MetYrTable

I collected the last days of November data from Weather Underground this morning and, if I haven’t made any calculation errors, this is the final Table for my Ten Stations plus Durham Tees. In Week 52, Rome returned the most extreme departure from my pre-industrial base. If all stations had been 3.87°C above, we could look forward to being toast. (The IPCC reckoning would have put Rome at 4.02 degrees above P-I.)

Note the three stations that broke through the Paris Target. The IPCC suggests that it will take 23 more years (from 2017) for the globe to warm the 0.5°C to take it to the limit already passed by Rio, Koltsovo and Wellington. Assuming a steady rise, this is approximately 0.02 degrees per year, hence the IPCC 1.04 in the table (for comparative purposes, but keep in mind that an extra 0.15°C needs to be added to my 10 Station Mini-Globe’s 1.20).

I’ll keep monitoring. See what next Met Year brings.

Still Getting Warmer

In the first two months of this meteorological year at my ten chosen weather stations, there were six instances of cooler temperatures and 14 warmer.

The five Northern Hemisphere Stations were, overall, 1.01°C warmer than the Ten Year Average (2008/9 to 20017/18).

The five Southern Hemisphere Stations were 1.18°C warmer.

“The literature” about present temperatures suggests varying amounts of global warmth above a notional Pre-Industrial Baseline. Initially, I was going to go for a low estimate (0.6°C) but decided on the middling 0.85°C instead.  NASA is currently suggesting the world has warmed 0.9°C since 1880 so I am being conservative.

So, I have set my Pre-industrial Baseline at 0.85°C above the TenYear Average. The figure is calculated daily for graphing purposes. I have added 1.5°C to give the Paris Accord limit we should attempt to stay below if we are to avoid even more extreme weather events than those recently experienced.

At the 10 Weather Stations in the last two months, the Average Daily Temperatures are 0.25°C above the 10 Year running average figure, leaving us just 0.4°C “to play with” before the Paris Accord limit is passed.

There is no way of telling how representative my chosen Weather Stations are, among the thousands reporting to Weather Underground. It doesn’t seem to matter though. Over the next year or two, the trend to either “runaway greenhouse” or Grand Solar Minimum chill must, surely, become apparent.

Right now the record cold temperatures in the US Midwest are causing a stir. The extreme warming that is forecast to soon follow there will keep tongues wagging. In the southern hemisphere, Australia’s heatwaves are crossing the Tasman and washing over New Zealand.

The warmest of my 10 Stations was Koltsovo, last month, registering 3.65°C above Pre-Industrial. If the Siberian experience is replicated everywhere for a whole year we are all toast.

NorthHemDecJan

SouthernHemDecJan

GlobalDecJan