Year-End

A new meteorological year begins.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change asks a question.

GlobalWarming1.5C

It seems a bit odd that this graph offers 1850 to 1900 as “pre-industrial”. But, moving on, the Panel’s one degree goes up against my 0.85°C rise since around 1700 (when Abraham Darby began using coke in his iron furnaces).

20191201MetYrTable

I collected the last days of November data from Weather Underground this morning and, if I haven’t made any calculation errors, this is the final Table for my Ten Stations plus Durham Tees. In Week 52, Rome returned the most extreme departure from my pre-industrial base. If all stations had been 3.87°C above, we could look forward to being toast. (The IPCC reckoning would have put Rome at 4.02 degrees above P-I.)

Note the three stations that broke through the Paris Target. The IPCC suggests that it will take 23 more years (from 2017) for the globe to warm the 0.5°C to take it to the limit already passed by Rio, Koltsovo and Wellington. Assuming a steady rise, this is approximately 0.02 degrees per year, hence the IPCC 1.04 in the table (for comparative purposes, but keep in mind that an extra 0.15°C needs to be added to my 10 Station Mini-Globe’s 1.20).

I’ll keep monitoring. See what next Met Year brings.

Still Getting Warmer

In the first two months of this meteorological year at my ten chosen weather stations, there were six instances of cooler temperatures and 14 warmer.

The five Northern Hemisphere Stations were, overall, 1.01°C warmer than the Ten Year Average (2008/9 to 20017/18).

The five Southern Hemisphere Stations were 1.18°C warmer.

“The literature” about present temperatures suggests varying amounts of global warmth above a notional Pre-Industrial Baseline. Initially, I was going to go for a low estimate (0.6°C) but decided on the middling 0.85°C instead.  NASA is currently suggesting the world has warmed 0.9°C since 1880 so I am being conservative.

So, I have set my Pre-industrial Baseline at 0.85°C above the TenYear Average. The figure is calculated daily for graphing purposes. I have added 1.5°C to give the Paris Accord limit we should attempt to stay below if we are to avoid even more extreme weather events than those recently experienced.

At the 10 Weather Stations in the last two months, the Average Daily Temperatures are 0.25°C above the 10 Year running average figure, leaving us just 0.4°C “to play with” before the Paris Accord limit is passed.

There is no way of telling how representative my chosen Weather Stations are, among the thousands reporting to Weather Underground. It doesn’t seem to matter though. Over the next year or two, the trend to either “runaway greenhouse” or Grand Solar Minimum chill must, surely, become apparent.

Right now the record cold temperatures in the US Midwest are causing a stir. The extreme warming that is forecast to soon follow there will keep tongues wagging. In the southern hemisphere, Australia’s heatwaves are crossing the Tasman and washing over New Zealand.

The warmest of my 10 Stations was Koltsovo, last month, registering 3.65°C above Pre-Industrial. If the Siberian experience is replicated everywhere for a whole year we are all toast.

NorthHemDecJan

SouthernHemDecJan

GlobalDecJan