Welsh Peak

A day or two ago Scotland posted a record February high temperature. Today, Trawsgoed in Ceredigion reported 20.6°C (source: BBC), the first time a temperature over 20°C has been recorded in a UK winter.

On the last day of winter in 2012, Whitby maxed at 18.1°C. At my chosen weather station in the town, the warmest days of February for the past nine years have averaged 12.5°C, with the lowest maximum being 7.8°C, in 2010.

Wales isn’t the globe, but Where’s Eddy?”

See also ‘Is a Mini Ice Age Coming?’

Mini Ice Age Cancelled

This morning, whatever the weather, I planned to photograph the three benches that feature in Today’s Image.OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

When the trees were cut down a couple of years ago the bench on the right was turned to provide a sea view. I was surprised that the snowy picture was taken in 2012. Memory connects the harsh December with 2010. I’ve checked the Whitby weather data and see that the minimum temperature on this day 2010 was 3.1°C, in 2012 it was minus 2.8 and today, in Filey, 6.2°C. (Weather Underground didn’t host any Filey personal stations back in 2012.)

So, on this particular day of the year, a tiny scrap of the globe has warmed a bit.

Back from my walk, YouTube piqued my interest at coffee break with Mini Ice Age Cancelled. An entertaining seven minutes with a challenging message.

I was inspired to spend much of the day preparing graphs and histograms for Canary’s first end of month report. For the ten years 2008 – 2017, December daily highs trend resolutely upward but at most of my ten sample weather stations, a corner appears to have been turned this month. Ice Age Farmer may be onto something.

My Little Canary

I’ve made an infinitesimal contribution to digging the coal mine but have no idea what is going to happen to us all, eventually, in consequence. More extreme weather events and the extinction of up to 200 species of animal and plant each day are suggested responses to our profligate burning of fossils fuels. But many folk bang on about the global temperature not rising at all for the last twenty years. And more are now voicing the opinion that the climate change hoax is the demon spawn of globalists. With sleeping nationalists/populists waking to fight the likes of the Weasel Macron, the physics that determine our planet’s climate may be lost in the fog of battle.

Enter my canary. I’m not long for this earth so it is gratifying that the timeline to human extinction by “runaway greenhouse” or the onset of a Mini Ice Age is so short. Daily temperatures must rise or fall alarmingly if we are to be roasted by 2026 or deep frozen by 2021.

It is one thing to pour scorn on satellites and the elaborate computer models of climatologists, quite another to cast doubt on the humble thermometer. I’m going to put my faith in such instruments in ten locations around the world and accept their output as reliable. My math skills are not great, but they don’t have to be. The only formula I expect to apply to daily maximum temperatures is ‘Average’.

Some of my first choices of weather stations had to be given up because their data didn’t go back to 2008. I replaced them with stations with a long enough history. My final picks don’t pretend to “represent” global coverage.

Northern Hemisphere: Capital Station, Beijing; Chhatrapati Shivaji International, Mumbai; Koltsovo Station, Novosibirsk; Ciampino Station, Rome; Ronald Reagan Washington National.

Southern Hemisphere: Jorge Newbery Aeroparque, Buenos Aires, Cape Town Station (SA); Santos Dumont Station, Rio de Janeiro; Kingsford Smith International, Sydney, Wellington International (NZ).

I’ll continue gathering data from the Whitby station I’ve “followed” for the last ten years.

Here are three sample graphs/histograms for Whitby in November.


Three things can be discerned amid the jumble of lines.

  • The orange 10-year average smoothes out the extreme differences of individual years.
  • 2018 wasn’t the warmest November since 2008.
  • 2018 was warmer than the 10 year average on 21 days out of 30.


This histogram would seem to indicate that the warmest November was in 2011, followed by 2014, 2015 and then 2018.

The top four by the average monthly temperature were:-

2011: 12.43°C

2015: 11.98

2014: 11.2

2009: 11.16

2018 came in fifth at 11.05°C. The coldest November was 2016 (max average 8.34°C). This was a surprise given the sudden decline into snow and ice in 2010, but that November had a warm beginning and middle. And after a very cold start, 2011 clearly heated up to take its top spot (above).

Another way of representing the maximum daily temperature data is to plot how each November average departs from the 10-year average.


Adding the trendline indicates that Novembers from 2008 to 2018 warmed slightly. If you add the departures from the 10-year average of the 4 pink columns to the 6 light blue you get, in this instance, zero. (That’s averages for you.) The rise in November temperature over the 11 years is, therefore, 1°C, the 2018 difference.

The dotty trendline is useful nonetheless. If the trendlines each month rise more steeply over the next year (or two), it would indicate progress towards perhaps significant warming. And if they fall, buy more warm clothing and an extra duvet – and hope the gas and electricity stay on.

I have made a start preparing Beijing in December. Whereas Whitby warmth is up and down between 2008 and 2017 (with six years cooler than average), Beijing’s five warmer than average years are all in the second half of the ten year period.


Note: The Beijing temperatures are in Fahrenheit. The minus 8.4°F in 2012 equates to about 4.4°C below the December 10 year average.

Onward and upward, or maybe downward. Sing, canary, sing.

Getting Colder

Frost Fair on the River Thames c.1683, by Thomas Wyke, engraved by James Stow, public domain

A YouTube recommendation this morning took me to my favourite fundamentalist Christian news channel where Rick Wiles and his henchmen told me all I wanted to know about the coming Mini Ice Age. It is going to arrive sooner than some have predicted and will last a lot longer, maybe over 300 years. Take THAT global warming.

I have been in the “we are toast” camp for the past decade and hoping to reach my eightieth year – and so be one of Dr Guy McPherson’s last men on earth. Our somewhat rude and primitive forebears weathered the last Maunder Minimum without much trouble so, perhaps mankind is saved and the Sixth Extinction will be stopped in its grievous tracks.

Rick informs us, sincerely if maybe not reliably, that the Earth’s thermostat will be turned right down in the winter of 2019/20. Even less time to wait than for human extinction in 2026.

In our post-truth world, the meeja may be no more truthful about the coming Big Freeze than about Brexit but there is one way of checking which way the wind is really blowing. Find a PWS near you on Weather Underground and log the temperatures and precipitation for each and every day. It won’t take many minutes out of your week and, for as long as there is still electricity you will be fairly certain which side is barking mad – the Warmists or the Coldists.

I had already chosen ten stations to follow, five in each hemisphere, hoping to detect the temperature rise forecast by the UK Met Office yesterday. Now I expect all my graphs to head south, so to speak. The Coldists are very sure of themselves. Flat Earthers too, come to think of it.

Here is a brief introduction to the subject. The TruNews bulletin will take a chunk out of your day if you watch it all.