The Northern Winter

After a cold start, my small sample of five northern hemisphere weather stations developed a fever, the running average weekly mean ending the season 2.51°C warmer than the same period last year.

NorthWINTER20cf19DIFF

At Week 13 last year, Washington DC, Rome, Mumbai, Koltsovo and Shanghai were, together, running at 1.31°C above their Pre-Industrial baseline. Adding the aforementioned difference gives a Winter average of 3.52°C above P-I. After the chilly first week, the rise was at first steep and then steady.

NorthWINTER20cfP-I

Under normal circumstances, this rise cannot be expected to continue through the northern Spring. However, the new coronavirus has cleared the skies above China of so much filth that Shanghai may get warmer still. Perhaps the other four stations will cool.

North-east England followed The Five – but less enthusiastically. At the end of this winter, Durham Tees was a mere 0.9°C warmer than the previous year.

DurTeesWINTER20cf19DIFF

Weeks 9 to 11 were not as warm as this graph makes them appear. There was a bit of a cold snap in the corresponding period last year.

DurTeesWINTER20cfP-I

This corner of England cooled markedly over the next nine months of 2019, ending the year at just 0.55 degrees centigrade above Pre-Industrial. A similar decline this year will bring us close to the Paris Target.

As mentioned in earlier weather posts, the southern hemisphere Summer has been much cooler this year at the Five Stations. I’ll share the figures and graphs next week.

Today’s Image

Five years to the day after photographing him on Muston Sands, I bumped into Angus this morning in Crescent Gardens. I was perhaps rude to ask the elderly gentleman’s age – he’s fourteen now and still very active.

Hot Washington

Washington DC was not the warmest of the Ten Stations last week. It was beaten by Cape Town.

43_FullTable

The wintry blast experienced by Koltsovo saw that station fall from second to fourth in “the League”, with Wellington and Washington moving up to second and third respectively. Rio had a chilly week, the Year to Date Mean Temperature falling 0.06ºC to 1.8 degrees above Pre-Industrial. The GFS model’s forecast of warmth in Argentina came good, with Buenos Aires high in the week’s table at 2.65ºC above P-I.

Durham Tees (my “local” station) was also a bit toasty in Week 43.

wk43_WashingtoDCcombo

The Washington trendline is almost flat, falling slightly to an indicated year-end temperature of 1.58ºC above Pre-Industrial – in orange “above Paris” territory. To meet this forecast, the temperature must rise 0.08 degrees from the end of August figure. Infinitesimal, which is one reason I’m experimenting with the percentage graphs.

Wk43_WashDCnorthTREND

 

Four Northern Hemisphere stations were in the bottom half of the Week 43 Table and they cancelled out the Washington warmth. (Mumbai is the only one of these four expected to be warmer at the end of the Met Year than now.)

Impressed by the GFS model’s Buenos Aires prediction last week, I’ve looked at the coming seven days for the Ten Stations. It is only a rough assessment but I’m going to wager that Koltsovo, Washington and Sydney will occupy the top three positions in the Week 44 Table.

All but one of the storms mentioned last week seem to have weakened without causing too much misery anywhere. The Earth Wind Map is currently showing a festering boil mid-way between Africa and the Americas.

20190929_EarthWindMap

Lorenzo – “the Atlantic’s second Cat 5 storm of the year, the strongest hurricane ever observed so far east in the Atlantic, and one of the northernmost Cat 5s on record.” Weather Underground.