The Paris Temperature goal is to keep global warming below 1.5°C and obviously every little Covid CO2 emission drop will help.
Global average temperature is considered by the IPCC to have reached one degree centigrade above Pre-Industrial by the end of 2017. A steady rise of 0.0217°C per year will take us to 1.5 degrees above P-I in 2040. At the end of the first quarter of this meteorological year the global average is notionally 1.07066°C above P-I. There are a lot of numbers in the Ten Station Table below but the “bottom line” is:-
My five northern hemisphere stations have collectively warmed 42 times faster than the IPCC 2017 projection, and the five southern stations have cooled by 3 IPCC units.
The progress of the hemispheres from the beginning of December 2020 is shown below.
Clearly, we need Covid-21, -23, -25 etc if we are not to fry. A cool southern hemisphere is not going to cut the mustard.
At the end of the first quarter of Meteorological Year 2018/19, the two hemispheres (each represented by 5 Weather Stations) were running Mean Temperatures above Pre-Industrial that differed by only one-hundredth of a degree Centigrade. North 1.31, South 1.32; rounding to a Global figure of 1.32 above P-I.
Things are very different this year. At the end of Week 8, four of the northern stations are in the “red zone” – more than 2°C above P-I. Rome is in the orange zone – above the Paris Target but below two degrees. They combine to yield a hemisphere average of 3.7°C above P-I.
The biggest contributor to this increase in relative warmth is Koltsovo, the coldest of the five stations. (The daily mean there has crept above zero centigrade on just three of the 56 days.)
The GFS 10-day weather forecast model shows a huge cold air mass moving east from Europe across the Federation – I’m expecting a dip over the next couple of weeks but it is a long way down to 2 degrees above P-I. It may take a Grand Solar Minimum to get it there by the end of the year.
Of course, returns from the thousands of other northern stations could bring my token average of 3.7C above P-I down to a figure that won’t frighten the horses. I have no way of knowing how representative my Ten Stations are. They could even be giving a false picture. These graphs should only be taken as an indication of what may be happening to global temperatures – and viewed in the context of current climate change hysteria.
After 8 weeks then, my North is running at 2.16°C warmer than the same period last year. My South is 0.7 degrees cooler. Putting the two together gives this chart of my “mini Globe’s” weekly differences, with a slight warming trend.