Nuts in May

Info graphic (detail) Europe Defender 2021

The NATO exercises kicked off in March and run through to June. Fingers crossed.

The Russian Federation made it known a week ago that it was compiling a list of “unfriendly countries”. Alex Christoforou has something to say about the chosen here.

Craziest of all is this graph from an element of SAGE – the gallimaufry of scientists that we are expected to trust.

A surge of Covid infection  (a Third Wave) is expected to follow the easing of all restrictions and the Warwick model seems to suggest that people who have had two doses of the gene therapy will be worst hit. There is a helpful explanation for this counter-intuitive possibility in the SPI-M-O Summary of further modelling of easing restrictions – Roadmap Step 2, 31 March 2021, where the graph appears.

This shows that most deaths and admissions in a post-Roadmap resurgence are in people who have received two vaccine doses, even without vaccine protection waning or a variant emerging that escapes vaccines. This is because vaccine uptake has been so high in the oldest age groups (modelled here at 95% in the over 50-year olds). There are therefore 5% of over 50-year olds who have not been vaccinated, and 95% x 10% = 9.5% of over 50-year olds who are vaccinated but, nevertheless, not protected against death. This is not the result of vaccines being ineffective, merely uptake being so high.

WalesOnline includes a link to the document in its observations on the rather bleak prospects for the UK. The Third Wave recedes just before “Flu Season” is about to kick off. Lockdown for another year from July, then?

Measure of Man 55 · Helpfulness