North-South Divide 2

The meteorological year is 21 weeks old. Enough time for a comparison to be made with last year’s temperature data from my Ten Stations.

Five stations in each hemisphere is a tiny sample of the total number reporting, so they are in no way representative of the whole world’s temperature experience. They do, however, combine to tell a story that can question the official climate change narrative.

The northern hemisphere is considerably warmer than it should be relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline. At the end of November 2019, the 5 Stations averaged 1.24°C above P-I. The chart below shows the marked difference this year.

Wk21_NorthIPCCunits

The relative warmth peaked in Week 16 at 127.46 IPCC units. This is massive when you consider the IPCC has projected a single unit rise annually until 2040 sees the Paris Accord’s 1.5°C above P-I reached – if humans fail to tackle the “climate emergency” successfully.

127.46 IPCC units equate to 3.84°C above P-I. The steep decline in five weeks is as welcome as it is surprising, given that reduced industrial activity and transport was expected by some to raise land surface temperatures.

The picture in the southern hemisphere is very different.

Wk21_SouthIPCCunits

Ending last year within a smidgen of 1.5°C above P-I, the south has effectively cooled by almost a degree. It would require a drop of another 23 IPCC units to make the southern hemisphere fall below the Pre-Industrial Baseline, but Rio de Janeiro has done that and Cape Town is currently just 0.04°C above P-I.

Despite the recent relative temperature decline in the north and the seeming stasis in the south the linear trends to the end of the year are up in the north and down in the south, suggesting the North-South divide will be maintained.

Wk21_GlobeIPCCunits

 

From the beginning of Week 6 to the middle of Week 18 the 10 Station “mini Globe” had maintained a temperature over 2°C above P-I. The trend from now to the end of the year is upwards, though it is possible that the cold times are coming.

Flower 15 · Mother-dee

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

My breakfast reading is currently Man and the Natural World (Keith Thomas) and discovering that Red Campion (Silene dioica­) has this disturbing vernacular name sent me along Church Walk this morning. Of little use as a food or medicine, this flower was thought, once upon a time, to kill the parents of any child who picked it. “Popular knowledge” in the Middle Ages bestowed a lot of other names upon it, some of them shared with other quite different flowers. Five are “Robin” names and half an hour after taking this photo I met a fine specimen of Erithacus rubecula in Martin’s Ravine.

Bird 80 · Robin

28_20200428Robin2_6m

Ten minutes later I reached the Glen Gardens cliff top and was thrilled to hear a ‘northern nightingale’, one of several birds once familiarly called Peggy. (The others are whitethroat, garden warbler, willow warbler and chiffchaff.) The lovely song was coming from a distant tree, the sea beyond.

Bird 81 · Blackcap

28_20200428Blackcap1_6m

Linneans chose to call “her” Sylvia atricapilla.

Fifteen more minutes and I was back in prison.

 

The Southern Summer

Last year, my five southern hemisphere stations came within a whisker of going above the Paris Accord target. By week 4 this meteorological year they fell to a running average mean temperature of 0.55°C and bumped along at that level to the end of summer.

SouthSUMMER20cfP-I

The first two relatively warm weeks ensured an overall cooling trend.

SouthSUMMER20cf19DIFF

The northern winter’s somewhat extreme warmth (represented by the five stations) was more than enough keep my “mini-globe” at two degrees centigrade or more above the Pre-Industrial baseline for 9 of the 13 weeks, and above Paris for all but the first week.

GlobeQ1_20cfP-I

Will the 5 southern stations warm enough in the next nine months to reach the IPCC projection of 1.065°C above P-I? This would seem unlikely as Climate Change sceptics have recently been pointing to the extreme winter cold in the northern hemisphere!

“Meanwhile, Europe is et to be hit by a brutal Arctic blast that will cause temperatures to plummet and heavy snow to strike this week…Motorists across large swathes of Britain faced a severe ice risk while driving home the other night after 300 schools were closed. Britain enters Spring this week but you’d be forgiven for thinking that Global Warming has gone on strike, with snow expected to blanket large parts of Britain over the next few weeks. And in places up north, it is expected to be twelve inches deep.”

Vivid stuff, huh? If you want to see pictures, check out Rowan Dean on Sky Australia (start at 4.30). I can’t recall seeing any snow on the Yorkshire coast this winter and have only needed to wear gloves on three of my 180 walks.

Rowan goes on to describe the recent chilling of the United States, going against the grain of my Washington DC temperatures, (ending winter at 1.87 degrees C above Pre-Industrial), and a Weather Underground blog post – February Wraps Up One of Warmest US Winters on Record.

December Hot and Cold

I copied and pasted December average temperatures for ten weather stations from Weather Underground, for the years 2008 to 2018. (The link takes you to the Beijing Capital Station for December 2018. You may be interested in having a look round the website, perhaps for a weather station close to where you live.)

The 10 years 2008 to 2017 provided a baseline and deducting 1.1°F (0.6°C)  from the figure for each station gives serviceable pre-industrial baselines that may be considered distant cousins to the IPCC’s Global Annual pre-industrial baseline.

The Ten Station December pre-industrial baselines were then deducted from the actual December 2018 figures to give an Above or Below Pre-Industrial result. For Earth as a whole (and on an annual basis) we are told that Anthropogenic Global Warming has pushed temperatures to, roughly, 0.6 to 1.0°C. It may be a surprise to see December Temperatures at three stations colder than they may have been before 1750, or warmer than the Paris Accord’s hopeful upper limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial.

Canary isn’t interested in “actual figures”. She is only concerned about detecting significant warming OR cooling over the next couple of years. My chosen early warning system involves monitoring the number of days each month that the Average Temperature at the Ten Stations falls below Pre-industrial or rises above the Paris 1.5 degrees C. (Given the wide range of average daily temperatures it is not really surprising that only a few days a month fall between the calculated pre-industrial baseline and 1.5 degrees Paris target.)

Here is part of an Excel spreadsheet that shows just the two Pre-industrial figures for each station.

Dec2018PreInd

When January’s figures are in I can begin “joining the dots” and by the end of the meteorological year 2018/19, a pattern may have emerged that will indicate whether we humans will starve whilst baking or freezing.

(Eleven Year histograms show a modest warming trend for nine of my chosen stations. Only Mumbai has gone, immodestly, the other way.)

MUMBAI_11yrDEC

I watched a couple of YouTube videos yesterday. It is important, I think, to consider both sides, even if you don’t believe one of them.

Ice Age Farmer

The Scott Adams Climate Challenge