Two Weeks…

…into the current Meteorological Year, how much is the temperature rising at the Ten Stations?

The Northern Hemisphere has experienced warming that the IPCC isn’t expecting until 2095 – at 2.96°C above Pre-Industrial. Fortunately, the South is bang on the 1.06 degrees the IPCC projected at the end of the year. So in two weeks, the mini Globe has only warmed 38 times as quickly as the IPCC imagined.

The main driver of warmth in The Ten is Koltsovo. In Week 2 it was 4.51°C warmer than at the same time last year, 6.23 degrees above P-I and with a Warming Rate of x238. Eighteen hundred kilometres to the west, Moscow is having a similar experience.

Obviously, all the stations will have weeks of relatively low temperatures in the coming months (north and south) and who knows, by the end of the Met Year they will as a group be close to the IPCC Projection. They may even go below the projected 1.06 degrees. In some graphs I have seen online, the Grand Solar Minimum, the Maunder feel-alike, is expected to take up residence in 2020.

The mythical Sam Carana, at Arctic News, is nonetheless doubling down on his gloomy prognostications of human extinction by 2026. He makes a case for us all departing this life in the coming calendar year.

Extinction and “Global Warming is a hoax” are clearly poles apart. Speaking of which, the GFS 10 Day forecast on Climate Reanalyzer has the Arctic at 2.3°C warmer than expected today but falling to -0.6 a week from now. The Antarctic hovers around 1.6 to 2.0 degrees warmer for the coming 10 days and the World stays mostly within a range of +0.3 to +0.6 (14 to 28 times warmer than the IPCC bargains for.

Here are Week Two graphics for the Ten Stations in Two Hemispheres, plus Durham Tees.

Week2_NorthPlus

Week2_SouthPlus.jpg

Gathering the data and constructing the graphs takes me away from the main task of putting headstone photos on the FamilySearch Shared Tree, so I won’t be doing weather posts every week. I’ll perhaps do an update after each completed month, with an occasional Week Graph if it illustrates something extreme or unexpected. In the media in Week 2 much was made of the heatwave expected in New South Wales that would intensify the bushfires. Notice above that Sydney is roughly in the middle of the green Goldilocks zone. The daily high peaked at 108°F yesterday but fell to 79 degrees (26.11°C) today. Records in Oz may be broken again as summer progresses. Across the Tasman, Wellington was the only one of the southern five in the red. The New Zealand capital may not cool down any time soon.

Figures

I noticed a few days ago that March was Earth’s second warmest on record. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground offered some figures. NOAA’s top five “warmest departures from average” since record keeping began place last month equal fifth, with January 2016, at +1.06°C. (March 2016 was top at +1.24°C.)

How do my 10 stations compare? With a range of +4.36 in Koltsovo to -1.56 in Mumbai they combined to average +0.96°C in March.

(It will be interesting to see if Mumbai suffers the terrible heat of the past few days. May is usually the hottest month in Madhya Pradesh but in Khargone on Sunday the temperature reached 47.5°C. Nine of the ten hottest places in the world on the 28th April were in India. Chauk in Myanmar was in 8th place.)

My results would appear to fit quite well with NOAA’s global assessment – but my notional rise is calculated from the beginning of the 18th century, about 170 years “before records began”. This is another indication that 0.85°C above the 10-Year baseline (meteorological years 2008/9 to 2017/18) could be on the low side.

Dr Guy McPherson is on record as stating that global temperature increased by 0.85°C  from pre-industrial (no date is given) to 2009. Warming then increased considerably to the present, adding a further 0.9°C. This will be unbelievable to those, like David Icke and Donald Trump, who believe “global warming” is a hoax.

If you are able to accept, for argument’s sake, that warming has indeed increased to 1.75°C above pre-industrial globally then we can forget the Paris Agreement of 2015. We are about to blast through 2°C this year if we haven’t done so already.

Here is a table showing the figures for the last full week available from the Ten Stations (7-day average). I will stick at 0.85°C, knowing it is almost certainly the lowest reasonable estimate in assessing global temperature. I have added the variation given by a middling increase in warming (+1.1°C) and a McPherson top of the range 1.75°C.

This has been the warmest week of the Met Year so far – and the arithmetic effect on global warming is rather obvious. It will be interesting to see where April 2019 stands in NOAA’s Warmest charts. You will be able to find evidence online that the Grand Solar Minimum has already begun but, so far, it is shunning my Ten Stations.

2019_MetWk21

At the end of the day, I watched The Battle Against Climate Change by Paul Kingsnorth. Recommended.