Top of the League

Rio de Janeiro has been the warmest of my Ten Stations for all but two of the last 22 weeks. Its mean daily temperature above Pre-Industrial (my version) has dipped below the dreaded 2 degrees C and seems unlikely to rise again this meteorological year. Rio and the southern hemisphere are running cooler than the trendlines indicated at the end of August.

Wk46_RioSouthTREND

Below are a couple of graphs that present the Week 46 Mean Temperature in a different way. I have ranked the table from highest to the lowest temperature and added Durham Tees to the Ten Stations to put north-east England into what passes for a global context. I’ve given the ten stations “hemisphere colours” and Durham Tees the indicator colour for the goldilocks zone – not too hot and not too cold (between zero and 1.49°C above Pre-Industrial). You can clearly see the four stations “over the limit” in Week 46. (Mumbai is the week’s elephant in the room.)

Week46_wkplusYTDinsets

Don’t be too complacent that the running average is below two degrees for all my stations as we near the end of the year. Robin at Seemorerocks offers an article by Anton Troianovski from The Independent about the melting permafrost in Siberia. Koltsovo is a long way from Siberia but is catching some of the heat. Climate Reanalyzer shows much of the Arctic Ocean to be over 4°C above average for much of the coming week, though mainland Siberia appears to be cooler.

Should one of my ten stations rise above two degrees next week, I think it will be Sydney. If I had a house, I’d put it on Buenos Aires being coolest. Again.

Cool Rio

Before the temperature data stopped flowing out of Weather Underground, I thought my Stations had settled into a Top Ten that wouldn’t change. But in Week 33, after normal service resumed, there were some rather extreme figures which returned Koltsovo to Number 1, Buenos Aires moved up to 6th (after propping up the table for the first five weeks of the meteorological year), and Mumbai pushed Rome into tenth place. The bottom two swapped places the following week and the top two the week after. The latest Table looks like this –

36_Ranking

You will notice immediately that all ten stations now have a running average Mean Daily Temperature below the feared 2°C.

Positions may change again but I’m going to do Sunday posts for the rest of the year that will feature just one of the ten stations, starting with the “warmest”, then the “coldest” in the northern hemisphere, and so on.

After the heatwaves, things have cooled noticeably. The Ten returned a temperature of only 0.26°C above Pre-Industrial last week. (My weeks, by the way, run from Saturday to Friday.)

36_FullTable

You will see from this full Table, with added DurhamTees data, that my nearest reliable local station broke through the two-degree barrier – but for the year-to-date is nonetheless running 0.47°C cooler than the “Ten Station Globe”.

Here is the first of the 10-week cycle set of graphs.

wks27to36_Rio

The ten-week histogram shows Rio’s almost 3.5°C range in average Mean Temperature above Pre-Industrial, and there’s no need for an added trendline to indicate the cooling. The small Rio graph for last week does, however, indicate how much it warmed from the Sunday low point. It didn’t feel particularly warm on the Yorkshire Coast last week but the figures suggest otherwise.

Recent Category 6 posts on Weather Underground have included –

Baked Alaska: State Endures Warmest Month on Record

U.S. Racks Up Wettest Calendar Year to Date

New Models Point to More Global Warming Than Expected

European Scientists: July 2019 Hottest Month on Record

A website with different fish to fry has an elderly but useful post about Eddy. Either way, we have been warned.

Southern Summer

Here are the results from five weather stations south of the equator –

SouthernSummerAboveP-I

There is no way of knowing if the TEN Stations together are representative of the Earth as a whole. They combine to give an AVERAGE temperature in the first quarter of the meteorological year of 1.22°C above the Pre-Industrial Baseline; a warming of 0.37°C.

Historical records show temperatures have typically fluctuated up or down by about 0.2°F per decade over the past 1,000 years. But trends over the past 40 years have been decidedly up, with warming approaching 0.4°F per decade. That’s still within historical bounds of the past — but just barely.

Scientific American

My station figures point to a rise much faster than historical, though it is probable that the next 9 months could see this quarter’s rate fall considerably. There is, perhaps, no need to be concerned, but the 0.85°C rise since Pre-Industrial does look a bit on the low side.

There is a dataset that offers an opportunity to compare the historical past with present experience. You can freely download the Central England Mean data from the UK Met Office website. I have an Excel spreadsheet with the annual thermometer-measured figures from 1659  to 2017. It, therefore, covers much of the Maunder Minimum period (1645 to 1710).

A Central England Baseline, averaging the AVERAGE (Mean) annual temperatures from 1659 to 1750, gives a figure of 9.02°C. Calculating the rise to 1960 and each decade thereafter (and finally to 2017) yields this graph.

CentralEnglandMean

Wow, that harsh winter of 1962/3 in England made its presence felt. The rise has reached 1.3°C above the Central England Baseline. Compare that with yesterday’s Northern Winter result of 1.27°C above the Global Pre-Industrial Baseline I have chosen.

The 52 years of the 65 years long Maunder Minimum covered by the Central England dataset averaged 8.8°C, only 0.22°C less than the Baseline figure (1659 to 1750). This suggests that Eddy, if he arrives, isn’t to be feared. Some have suggested that he will be no match for continuing human-induced warming.

Are things hotting up on the sub-continent?

The legacy media are not giving us much information about the conflict between India and Pakistan. After closing its airspace on Thursday, Pakistan seems to be allowing commercial flights over the country again but India’s north-west seems to be out of bounds still. In the screenshot below the highlighted jet is an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner from London Heathrow heading for Delhi.

20190302_PakIndAirspace2

Across La Manche, the Yellow Vests have protested for the sixteenth Saturday straight. The UK regime doesn’t want us to know about it. All quiet on the BBC front.