The Strange Rise of Covid-19 Deaths

The UK regime isn’t alone in making a rod for its back, though its response to the pandemic has been particularly inept. Increasing numbers of “ordinary citizens” are beginning to smell the rats carrying a worse plague than Sars-Cov-2. Arriving here, there and everywhere sometime soon.

Quite recently, Brits were being frightened with a figure of 500,000 people killed by Covid-19 disease. This has now been reduced to 20,000. If that proves to be the final figure in the UK it will be no more deadly than the winter ‘flu. I can’t remember the regime throwing millions out of work for the ‘flu.

But, when I downloaded the Virus Prediction tool from Andology and made the modest assumptions of a reproduction rate (R0) of 2.5, a doubling time of seven days and a mortality rate of 2%, over 4.5 million Britons departed the Sceptered Isles by the middle of August this year.

Well, each infected person has clearly been passing the disease to six or seven people and the mortality rate could be as high as 10%. The death toll is doubling every four days. At these rates, we must surely be expecting ten million dead by the end of summer, not 20,000.

It is hard to get your head around. The Prediction Tool’s 4.5 million had a hidden assumption. That we would do nothing to fight the invisible enemy. But we are doing something. By regime diktat we are, most of us, sheltering in place or working from home. (To save our beloved NHS, which the regime has been selling off to private investors for years.)

So why is the death toll rising much quicker than the Prediction Tool suggests?

Here is a graph of the accumulating deaths in Italy and the UK in weeks 7, 8 and 9 of their pandemic experience.

CV19_Deaths_ItalyUK_1

The actual figures are taken from Worldometers. Week 17 in the UK ends on 4 June. Radio pundits today were expecting our death rate to peak in 10 to 14 days from now. Imagine the extra 4 million or so deaths between weeks 18 and 26. (With its lower population, Italy is predicted to have half a million fewer deaths than the UK.)

We’ll soon see if the curves flatten. It may take a while longer for the sales of pitchforks to ramp up.

Flight of Fancy 18 · Owl

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The Winter of Man

Under this title, an essay by Loren Eiseley was published in the New York Times almost fifty years ago. A hundred years ago an “Eskimo shaman” told the explorer Knud Rasmussen –

We fear the cold and the things we do not understand. But most of all we fear the doings of the heedless ones among ourselves.

After taking us on a quick tour from humankind’s tropical genesis to life on the edge of an ice-covered world Loren writes –

Today we have science, we do not fear the Eskimo’s malevolent ghosts. We do not wear amulets to ward off evil spirits. We have pierced to the far rim of the universe. We roam mentally through light-years of time.

Yes, this could be admitted, but we also fear. We fear more deeply than the man in the snow. It comes to us, if we are honest, that perhaps nothing has changed the grip of winter in our hearts, that winter before which we cringed amidst the ice long ages ago.

For what is it that we do? We fear. We do not fear ghosts but we fear the ghost of ourselves. We have come now, in this time, to fear the water we drink, the air we breathe, the insecticides that are dusted over our giant fruits. Because of the substances we have poured into our contaminated rivers, we fear the food that comes to us from the sea. There are also those who tell us that by our own heedless acts the seas are dying.

We fear the awesome powers we have lifted out of nature and cannot return to her. We fear the weapons we have made, the hatreds we have engendered. We fear the crush of fanatic people to whom we readily sell these weapons. We fear for the value of the money in our pockets that stands symbolically for food and shelter. We fear the growing power of the state to take all these things from us. We fear to walk our streets at evening. We have come to fear even our scientists and their gifts.

And the latest gift? SARS-CoV-2. Life-coach Richard Grannon offers his thoughts.

(Do not fear those among us who run around supermarkets like heedless chickens looking for toilet paper.)

 

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Knud Johan Victor Rasmussen 1879 – 1933
Photographer not credited, n.d. Wikimedia Commons

Loren Eiseley has a distinguished pedigree with a line passing through several High Stewards of Scotland to, inevitably, Carolus Magnus. Not bad for a humble American bone collector.