Covid case numbers are rising in Europe and Brits are being primed to expect a surge of infections here too, though maybe not for five or six months. Case numbers should not be confused with infections, and deaths from the disease in France, Germany and the UK have fallen since January. France looks the most likely of the three to be inundated first by a Third Wave of Covid-19 – or perhaps a First Wave of the Billy Goats-promised “next pandemic”.
Death totals are taken from Worldometer and Expected Deaths are Annual Totals derived from World Bank 2018 figures evenly distributed. I will look for more accurate First Quarter data and perhaps offer a more trustworthy graph later. Not that there is anything reliable about published Covid-19 data anyway. If you want to do your own Italian Job on this graph, divide the vertical axis figures by eight to get a more accurate picture. (Roughly 90 per cent of the UK bars above are arguably “Lockdown Deaths”. So, in Week 3, about 1,000 people were killed by Sars-CoV-2 and 7,500 by regime policies.)
There is a lot going on in the world that we should be frightened about but the mysterious flu called Covid-19 is not one of them. Julia Hartley-Brewer and Professor Anthony Brookes chatted about it today on talkRADIO (11 minutes).
Here are a couple of graphs based on Covid death totals available on Worldometer. Waves start when deaths attributed to Covid-19 reach 2% of expected daily deaths from all causes. The UK’s First Wave lasted 118 days and Sweden took about 40 days longer to fall back below 2%.
The Second Wave in the UK has a way to go before it is worse than the First. (The ongoing rise has the look and feel of old normal seasonality about it.) The value of common sense and not locking a country down is illustrated by the Swedish experience.
The UK regime has convinced itself that a Second Wave of Covid-19 has started to build. To “save lives” it has decreed that Britons must be locked up again.
Spot the Second Wave…
This graph is deliberately bare bones. The line runs from 21 March to 21 September. It shows reported Covid-19 deaths each day (source Worldometer) as a percentage of expected daily deaths from all causes (World Bank 2018annual deaths divided by 365.25.) The wild peaks and troughs are a consequence of most weekend deaths being reported at the beginning of the following working week.
The debate continues but it is becoming clear that between 5 and 10% of people (in Any Country) who have died with Covid noted on the death certificate had no other health issues (comorbidities). You should, therefore, try to visualize a roughly Seven Percent First Wave.
UK citizens were asked to sacrifice their freedoms back in March to “flatten the curve”. They did their duty.
This graph from UK Column News shows how flat the curve may have been. Every death above the red dotted line has been caused, the Column argues, by the supposed “cure” and not the “disease”.
Imagining a Second Wave is one thing. Responding to its perceived threat with locking people up in their homes for six more months is another.
I look to Sky Australia to explain Covidmania to me. Today, Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones were a great help. (The British Broadcasting Corporation is beaming its “news” from a planet that bears no resemblance to the one I inhabit.)
Here is Australia’s graph of the Covid Percentage of Expected Deaths.
No obvious First Wave yet but that hasn’t stopped the psychopaths implementing one of the most inhumane lock down on Earth. Cross your fingers that Aussie-style police brutality doesn’t infect your country. There were disturbing signs of it presenting in Trafalgar Square at the weekend.