The Paris Temperature goal is to keep global warming below 1.5°C and obviously every little Covid CO2 emission drop will help.
Global average temperature is considered by the IPCC to have reached one degree centigrade above Pre-Industrial by the end of 2017. A steady rise of 0.0217°C per year will take us to 1.5 degrees above P-I in 2040. At the end of the first quarter of this meteorological year the global average is notionally 1.07066°C above P-I. There are a lot of numbers in the Ten Station Table below but the “bottom line” is:-
My five northern hemisphere stations have collectively warmed 42 times faster than the IPCC 2017 projection, and the five southern stations have cooled by 3 IPCC units.
The progress of the hemispheres from the beginning of December 2020 is shown below.
Clearly, we need Covid-21, -23, -25 etc if we are not to fry. A cool southern hemisphere is not going to cut the mustard.
Last year, my five southern hemisphere stations came within a whisker of going above the Paris Accord target. By week 4 this meteorological year they fell to a running average mean temperature of 0.55°C and bumped along at that level to the end of summer.
The first two relatively warm weeks ensured an overall cooling trend.
The northern winter’s somewhat extreme warmth (represented by the five stations) was more than enough keep my “mini-globe” at two degrees centigrade or more above the Pre-Industrial baseline for 9 of the 13 weeks, and above Paris for all but the first week.
Will the 5 southern stations warm enough in the next nine months to reach the IPCC projection of 1.065°C above P-I? This would seem unlikely as Climate Change sceptics have recently been pointing to the extreme winter cold in the northern hemisphere!
“Meanwhile, Europe is et to be hit by a brutal Arctic blast that will cause temperatures to plummet and heavy snow to strike this week…Motorists across large swathes of Britain faced a severe ice risk while driving home the other night after 300 schools were closed. Britain enters Spring this week but you’d be forgiven for thinking that Global Warming has gone on strike, with snow expected to blanket large parts of Britain over the next few weeks. And in places up north, it is expected to be twelve inches deep.”
Vivid stuff, huh? If you want to see pictures, check out Rowan Dean on Sky Australia (start at 4.30). I can’t recall seeing any snow on the Yorkshire coast this winter and have only needed to wear gloves on three of my 180 walks.
Rowan goes on to describe the recent chilling of the United States, going against the grain of my Washington DC temperatures, (ending winter at 1.87 degrees C above Pre-Industrial), and a Weather Underground blog post – February Wraps Up One of Warmest US Winters on Record.
At the end of the first quarter of Meteorological Year 2018/19, the two hemispheres (each represented by 5 Weather Stations) were running Mean Temperatures above Pre-Industrial that differed by only one-hundredth of a degree Centigrade. North 1.31, South 1.32; rounding to a Global figure of 1.32 above P-I.
Things are very different this year. At the end of Week 8, four of the northern stations are in the “red zone” – more than 2°C above P-I. Rome is in the orange zone – above the Paris Target but below two degrees. They combine to yield a hemisphere average of 3.7°C above P-I.
The biggest contributor to this increase in relative warmth is Koltsovo, the coldest of the five stations. (The daily mean there has crept above zero centigrade on just three of the 56 days.)
The GFS 10-day weather forecast model shows a huge cold air mass moving east from Europe across the Federation – I’m expecting a dip over the next couple of weeks but it is a long way down to 2 degrees above P-I. It may take a Grand Solar Minimum to get it there by the end of the year.
Of course, returns from the thousands of other northern stations could bring my token average of 3.7C above P-I down to a figure that won’t frighten the horses. I have no way of knowing how representative my Ten Stations are. They could even be giving a false picture. These graphs should only be taken as an indication of what may be happening to global temperatures – and viewed in the context of current climate change hysteria.
After 8 weeks then, my North is running at 2.16°C warmer than the same period last year. My South is 0.7 degrees cooler. Putting the two together gives this chart of my “mini Globe’s” weekly differences, with a slight warming trend.
Rain in Port Elizabeth hast stopped play in the Third Test a few times in the last couple of days. Summer in South Africa isn’t all that hot. Cape Town warmed a quarter of a degree centigrade last week but the running average for the first 49 days of the meteorological year is only 0.28°C above Pre-Industrial.
In Australia, there has been welcome rain. News reports say it has put out some bushfires. Sydney cooled 0.26°C in seven days, falling to 1.05 degrees above Pre-Industrial, almost bang on the IPCC’s projection for the year.
In South America –
Those who were at Santa Cruz station, in Rio de Janeiro, around 12:45 PM on Saturday, felt as if the temperature was 54.8ºC, slightly over 130ºF. This was the Heat Index registered, on Saturday, January 11th, in the Marvelous City.
I get my mean temperature data from Santos Dumont Airport, an hour’s drive from Santa Cruz, (about 60 km). The high there on January 11th was 91°Fahrenheit. I suppose it may have “felt” a lot warmer. January in Rio has been much cooler so far this year than last.
Since Week 4 this southern summer, Rio has been bumping along the Pre-Industrial Baseline. Quite a change from 2019 when it ended the summer on the dreaded 2°C above P-I.