Sydney Bucks the Trend

40_FullTable

Sydney’s warm week raised its Mean Daily Temperature running average – only by 0.3ºC but nonetheless confounding the 9-month trendline.

wk40_SydneyCombo

Northern England turned chilly, though not as much as Koltsovo, Shanghai and Buenos Aires. Without Sydney’s contribution of warmth, the southern hemisphere would have equalled the north’s cooling. The globe, as represented by the Ten Stations, saw its running average drop 0.3ºC in Week 40. If Sydney returns to its cooling trend and falls to a yearly average of 1.19º above (my) Pre-Industrial baseline at the end of November, that will still represent a 0.34ºC rise above the Ten Year (2009 to 2018) average.

Dorian

The monster hurricane caused terrible devastation in the Bahamas and, if Puerto Rico’s experience is anything to go by, the people in the worst affected islands will wait a long time for the assistance they need to rebuild communities.

Questions are being asked about the odd behaviour of the storm. Georgia and the Carolinas received a battering – but it could have been worse. And maybe it need not have been as bad as it was for Bahamians.

Dorian is over the Gulf of St Lawrence as I write, and the west coast of Ireland and the Scottish Isles may feel his breath on Tuesday when computer models are showing the storm centre tracking over Iceland.

Weather Week 28

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Seven of the ten monitored weather stations experienced average Mean temperatures above the Paris Accord’s limit this week. Washington DC’s relative cold sent me looking online for confirmation and I found some comments about cool temperatures and rainstorms. The forecast is for a cooler than usual summer there. The heat in India has made an impression on Mumbai. It’s running average is no longer below Pre-Industrial levels. Buenos Aires continues to warm, and summer seems to have arrived in Rome, thought Europe’s Eternal City continues to be cooler this year than the Ten Year Average (2008. To 2017/18). The north of England, represented by Durham Tees, has slipped back into chilliness.

wk28_abovePI&10yr_table2

This week’s twins are Shanghai and Sydney.

2428ShanSydFULL

The Arctic Basin is a long way from any of my Ten Weather Stations but it seems reasonable to expect it will give an early warning of the Grand Solar Minimum’s arrival.

 

Southern Summer

Here are the results from five weather stations south of the equator –

SouthernSummerAboveP-I

There is no way of knowing if the TEN Stations together are representative of the Earth as a whole. They combine to give an AVERAGE temperature in the first quarter of the meteorological year of 1.22°C above the Pre-Industrial Baseline; a warming of 0.37°C.

Historical records show temperatures have typically fluctuated up or down by about 0.2°F per decade over the past 1,000 years. But trends over the past 40 years have been decidedly up, with warming approaching 0.4°F per decade. That’s still within historical bounds of the past — but just barely.

Scientific American

My station figures point to a rise much faster than historical, though it is probable that the next 9 months could see this quarter’s rate fall considerably. There is, perhaps, no need to be concerned, but the 0.85°C rise since Pre-Industrial does look a bit on the low side.

There is a dataset that offers an opportunity to compare the historical past with present experience. You can freely download the Central England Mean data from the UK Met Office website. I have an Excel spreadsheet with the annual thermometer-measured figures from 1659  to 2017. It, therefore, covers much of the Maunder Minimum period (1645 to 1710).

A Central England Baseline, averaging the AVERAGE (Mean) annual temperatures from 1659 to 1750, gives a figure of 9.02°C. Calculating the rise to 1960 and each decade thereafter (and finally to 2017) yields this graph.

CentralEnglandMean

Wow, that harsh winter of 1962/3 in England made its presence felt. The rise has reached 1.3°C above the Central England Baseline. Compare that with yesterday’s Northern Winter result of 1.27°C above the Global Pre-Industrial Baseline I have chosen.

The 52 years of the 65 years long Maunder Minimum covered by the Central England dataset averaged 8.8°C, only 0.22°C less than the Baseline figure (1659 to 1750). This suggests that Eddy, if he arrives, isn’t to be feared. Some have suggested that he will be no match for continuing human-induced warming.

Are things hotting up on the sub-continent?

The legacy media are not giving us much information about the conflict between India and Pakistan. After closing its airspace on Thursday, Pakistan seems to be allowing commercial flights over the country again but India’s north-west seems to be out of bounds still. In the screenshot below the highlighted jet is an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner from London Heathrow heading for Delhi.

20190302_PakIndAirspace2

Across La Manche, the Yellow Vests have protested for the sixteenth Saturday straight. The UK regime doesn’t want us to know about it. All quiet on the BBC front.

Koltsovo Station

I wrote yesterday that this was the warmest of my ten stations. It was actually the coldest – but I had its temperature anomaly in mind. On six days last month, the average temperature was over 10°C above the Pre-Industrial baseline. It is also the station with the greatest fluctuations of temperature from one day to the next.

KoltsovoJAN2019

Here’s a graph of Sydney data (Kingsford Smith station) for comparison.

SydneyJAN2019

Last month was Australia’s hottest January for over a hundred years, “and there is no relief in sight for the months ahead”.