Shanghaied

The idea that there is a “climate emergency” seems to have been shanghaied by powerful forces. Who are the powerful? The obscenely rich, who only want to get richer. After denying global warming/climate change for long enough, they are now trying to force the minds of the populace to go places they have previously been encouraged to avoid viz. to accept now that there IS a climate emergency.

Consider the green, carbon reduced election promises of the major political class in the UK. And when the BBC weighs in on the side of a CE, you can be sure that something underhand is going on.

The October just gone was the second warmest since the late 1800s. But this blogpost from Weather Underground includes a graphic from Copernic EU claiming it is the hottest on record, with temperatures o.69°C above average. I haven’t been keeping monthly averages, but a quick calculation of my Ten Station returns indicates a rise last month of 0.8° above the 10-Year Average (Met Years 2008/9 to 2017/18).

Last week, my tiny proportion of the globe was only 0.11° above the 10-Year baseline but in the mix was Buenos Aires, almost 4 degrees C warmer (4.8°C above Pre-Industrial).

Shanghai moved up a place in the Year-to-Date chart, pushing a chillier Cape Town down to seventh.

Again, the Durham Tees outlier was (relatively) the coldest of the eleven stations I’m monitoring, by week and YTD.

Week51_wkplusYTDinsets

With only a week to go, it appears that both Shanghai and the Northern (5 Station) Hemisphere will buck the trends expected at the end of August. An indication, perhaps, that the Grand Solar Minimum is biding its time before biting.

Wk51_ShanghaiNorthTREND

 

Sydney

A deep freeze in the eastern United States last week gripped Washington DC, where my station (Ronald Reagan International) plunged to 3.65°C below Pre-Industrial. Rio and Koltsovo also returned negative figures, but they were modest. Durham Tees is now the coldest station for the Year to Date (YTD) relative to P-I, of the eleven I’m monitoring, with just two weeks of the meteorological year to go.

Sydney’s cool week, at 1.07 above P-I, was probably welcomed by the inhabitants but I think blustery winds continued to make bushfire fighting difficult.

Five of my stations posted figures more than two degrees above P-I in Week 50. Mumbai and Shanghai’s contributions were cancelled out by Washington – the northern hemisphere was just 0.14°C above P-I. The south, with the unexpected assistance of Cape Town (2.92 degrees above P-I), finished the week “breaking Paris”, at 1.74 above.

Week50_wkplusYTDinsets

Sydney is not following the trend indicated at the end of August. Spring there will end up being warmer than expected. The southern hemisphere though, represented by the five stations, has yet to reach its forecast warming state. The YTD running average is, however, 1.33°C above P-I, almost half a degree warmer than the Ten-Year baseline (Met Years 2008/9 to 2017/18).

Wk50_SydneySouthTREND

The Mean Daily temperature running average for the Ten Stations is  1.2°C above P-I. I’ve mentioned a few times that my calculation of a Pre-Industrial baseline is “conservative” – on the low side. And I don’t make any attempts to figure the future. Robin at Seemorerocks has re-posted a graph by Sam Carana at Arctic News, showing a rise in global air temperature at land and ocean surface level of 1.85°C since 1750. It shows two degrees being reached by the end of 2020, and a barely survivable four degrees being passed in 2023. Three more years and there may be no hearts at all beating on this planet. This puts getting fed up about Brexit into perspective. (The first anniversary of the Yellow Vest Protests this weekend?)

20191117TempRise_SamCarana

2020 El Nino Could Start 18 Degree Temperature Rise Arctic News

 

Rome

Rome was sixth in the Temperature Table last week, at 2.27°C above Pre-Industrial. This week it is fifth and 1.99 degrees above. An indication that my ten stations Globe is a little cooler (relatively) – on the border of Goldilocks and the Paris Accord for the Year to Date. The Hemispheres have swapped places, with the South over the 2 degrees C mark and the North just 0.09 degrees above the Ten-Year average (0.94°).

Week49_wkplusYTDinsets

Rome’s Autumn warmth continues to confound its end of August trendline forecast, contributing significantly to the Northern Hemisphere bucking a similar trend. Washington DC continued to feel the cold that began just over a week ago causing the small reverse in the North’s warming trend.

Wk49_RomeNorthTREND

Yorkshire experienced some miserable floods this week, caused by a month’s rain falling in 24 hours, but nothing on the scale suffered in other parts of the world recently. You couldn’t make it up – the wettest place seems to have been Fishlake. It was New South Wales’ turn for bushfires.

Transitioning

Much of the United States experienced a rapid change in October, from “unprecedented heat” to being “seriously cold”. What appeared to be the early onset of winter stirred some preachers of the nth coming of the Grand Solar Minimum.

But the cold didn’t reach Washington DC until the end of Met Week 48, the daily mean dropping over ten degrees centigrade, from 19.9 on Thursday to 9.2°C on Friday. Until then, it had been much warmer than the 10-Year average (2008/9 to 2017/18). DC topped the Ten Station chart for the week, at 3.95°C above my Pre-Industrial baseline. Two other northern hemisphere stations were above the dreaded two degrees, and so were three southern hemisphere stations.

A couple of chilly links, to End of the American Dream and Weather Underground, should be read in the context of a generally toasty North last week, and a South that just crept over the “Paris Accord” target, (as represented by my 5 chosen stations and comparing the running 7-day average with my Pre-industrial baseline).

Durham Tees last week was much colder than Pre-Industrial – and all the Ten Stations.

Week48_wkplusYTDinsets

Wellington is this week’s featured station. Promised a cold Spring a while back, it was 7th in the Week 48 Table, at 0.43°C above P-I (0.42 below the Ten-Year Average). This amount of coolness has been enough to drop the running average for the year to 1.49°C. Only three of the Ten are now “above Paris” – Rio de Janeiro (1.8), Koltsovo (1.63) and Washington DC (1.61°C).

Wellington is following the trendline more closely than any of the other nine stations.

Wk48_WellingtonSouthTREND

A Bit Cooler

Except in Buenos Aires. Cape Town propped up the Table in Week 47 with its seven-day Mean of 1.25°C below my Pre-Industrial baseline. The Argentine capital was the fourth “warmest” of my ten stations. It was comfortably in the Goldilocks Zone at 1.19°C above P-I.

Mumbai is under the spotlight this week, and it remains the coolest of the stations for the Year to Date. Another way of saying “0.59°C above P-I” is “it is currently running 0.26°C cooler than the 10 Year Baseline (Met Year 2008/9 to 2017/18)”.

Rome is the other station cooler than the 10 Year base (0.66°C above P-I), but it was the “warmest” station in Week 47 at 3.52°C above P-I. (Rome’s Weekly Mean was 19.08°C, compared to Mumbai’s 27.08 degrees.)

Week47_wkplusYTDinsets

Another chilly week in North-East England probably ensures that Durham Tees will join Rome and Mumbai as the only stations below the 10-Year base five weeks from now.

Although Mumbai will almost certainly end this meteorological year as the station that warmed the least, the trendline from the end of August indicated its temperature would rise by 0.25°C in the last 13 weeks. From a negative figure in the second of these weeks, Mumbai did begin a warming trend – until Week 47 chill knocked it back By contrast the Northern Hemisphere, expected to get cooler in Autumn relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline, has been above the end of August’s running average for the last three weeks.

Wk47_MumbaiNorthTREND

The changing climate is a factor in the California “wildfires” that have caused so much concern this past week. A short video by Verge Science explains the human dimension to what has been “natural” for millennia.

Top of the League

Rio de Janeiro has been the warmest of my Ten Stations for all but two of the last 22 weeks. Its mean daily temperature above Pre-Industrial (my version) has dipped below the dreaded 2 degrees C and seems unlikely to rise again this meteorological year. Rio and the southern hemisphere are running cooler than the trendlines indicated at the end of August.

Wk46_RioSouthTREND

Below are a couple of graphs that present the Week 46 Mean Temperature in a different way. I have ranked the table from highest to the lowest temperature and added Durham Tees to the Ten Stations to put north-east England into what passes for a global context. I’ve given the ten stations “hemisphere colours” and Durham Tees the indicator colour for the goldilocks zone – not too hot and not too cold (between zero and 1.49°C above Pre-Industrial). You can clearly see the four stations “over the limit” in Week 46. (Mumbai is the week’s elephant in the room.)

Week46_wkplusYTDinsets

Don’t be too complacent that the running average is below two degrees for all my stations as we near the end of the year. Robin at Seemorerocks offers an article by Anton Troianovski from The Independent about the melting permafrost in Siberia. Koltsovo is a long way from Siberia but is catching some of the heat. Climate Reanalyzer shows much of the Arctic Ocean to be over 4°C above average for much of the coming week, though mainland Siberia appears to be cooler.

Should one of my ten stations rise above two degrees next week, I think it will be Sydney. If I had a house, I’d put it on Buenos Aires being coolest. Again.

More Errant Forecasts

The southern hemisphere was warmer than I expected last week with Buenos Aires and Rio taking two of the top three places in the Table. This took the gloss off correctly nominating Koltsovo for Week 45 top spot.

45_FullTable

Roughly in the centre of the Russian Federation, Koltsovo might be expected to descend rapidly into sub-zero winter. Last week seemed to be the beginning – after the last burst (perhaps) of heat.

wk45_KoltsovoCombo

The first-day figure of almost ten degrees centigrade above P-I is the highest I can recall being recorded in my ten stations this year. A fall from a daily mean of 13.4°C on Saturday to 1.8 the following Friday is not something I’d care to experience. Having said that, Durham Tees was colder every day of Week 45 than Koltsovo’s warmest day. (Range 10.7°C on Wednesday to 12.2 on Friday.)

Wk45_KoltsovoNorthTREND

A warm Koltsovo has been the main reason for the northern hemisphere reversing the trendline forecast of cooling to the end of the meteorological year.

A quick look at the GFS model for this week points to Koltsovo turning warm again for several days. Three southern hemisphere stations might make it into the top four (Cape Town, Rio and Wellington. I’m putting pretend money on Washington and Buenos Aires propping up the Table at the end of Week 46.

Typhoon Hagibis was the week’s most obvious villain but the Arctic is a continuing cause for concern. For the next ten days, GFS indicates it will run between two and three degrees centigrade above what used to be considered “normal”. For weird weather-with-consequences, keep your eye on California. Let Jane Tande be your guide.

 

Blame Game

I lost my wager on the Hot Three weather Stations in Week 44. Sydney trailed in sixth and an outsider came up fast on the rails to pip Koltsovo for third place. The favourite, Washington DC, romped home but one out of three is poor. I blame my analysis of the GFS Model forecasts on Climate Reanalyzer rather than the model itself. I’ll try to do better this week.

44_FullTable

The aforementioned outsider was Cape Town, which is under the spotlight this week. For the first 36 weeks of the meteorological year, it has been colder than the station’s Ten-Year running average. It is, however, one of three southern hemisphere stations with a warming trendline to the end of November.

wk44_CapeTowncombo

If Cape Town reaches the forecast 1.2°C that will be 0.35°C warmer than the Ten-Year average. After five weeks of the southern spring, it is 0.25°C warmer.

44_CapeTowncf10yr

 

Cape Town is ahead of schedule and the rise seems steady, but the southern hemisphere continues to run cold. (An earlier error in the South’s figures has been corrected.)

44_CapeTownSouthTREND

I don’t think the northern hemisphere will be as warm this week as last and the south will continue to be relatively cool. Australians have been warned of an imminent “scorcher” lasting several months but South America, South Africa and New Zealand may not be similarly cursed.

Week 45 warmest of the Ten – all northern hemisphere: Koltsovo, Shanghai, Washington DC.

 

Temperature Trends

The Ten Stations conspired to push their contribution to global warming to 1.5°C above my Pre-Industrial baseline, breaking through the Paris Limit on the day of the Climate Protests.

Buenos Aires spent the first nine weeks of this meteorological year propping up the Table, moving up a place to 9th for the next fifteen weeks.

wk42_BuenosAiresCombo

A mild southern winter pushed Buenos Aires up to 6th for five weeks. It fell back to 6th three weeks ago but won’t rest there if it follows the Trend Forecast.

Buenos Aires is the station least likely to reach the indicated temperature at the end of the year. Currently, at 0.79°C above P-I, it must warm another 0.9 degrees in ten weeks to reach the target. The GFS model shows a few warmer than average days heading Argentina’s way in the next week or so, perhaps raising the temperature by one or two-tenths of a degree.

I think it is worth monitoring the trends closely though. It is too early to say if the scheme I’ve devised will work but, here goes. Using the mean daily temperatures for each station over a period of ten years I have calculated the annual range in degrees centigrade, from warmest day to coldest, divided the figure by 13 and apportioned the rise or fall to the weeks of the northern autumn and southern spring AS A PERCENTAGE. I am calculating the actual ongoing weekly change as a percentage of the 10-year range. The resulting graphs should show clearly which stations are returning temperatures higher or lower than the trendlines have indicated.

In the first three weeks of spring, Buenos Aires has already fallen behind – and so has the Southern Hemisphere. Their two graphs share a family resemblance.

In the wider world, last week saw Tropical Depression Imelda bringing greater devastation to parts of Texas than the infamous Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Several storms are currently lining up to make names for themselves, so to speak – Kiko, Mario and Lorena in the Pacific; Jerry in the Atlantic. The kids are all right.

Update 28 September

While collecting Week 43 data I realised I had made a couple of significant errors in compiling last week’s Table and the Buenos Aires/SOUTH graph. I have replaced both with revised graphics. The Table gave the Week 41 mean temperature for Durham Tees (-1.11ºC) in error and underestimated the percentage drop in Southern Hemisphere temperature in the second week of Autumn. The correct figure makes the “family resemblance” more obvious!