The Northern Winter

After a cold start, my small sample of five northern hemisphere weather stations developed a fever, the running average weekly mean ending the season 2.51°C warmer than the same period last year.

NorthWINTER20cf19DIFF

At Week 13 last year, Washington DC, Rome, Mumbai, Koltsovo and Shanghai were, together, running at 1.31°C above their Pre-Industrial baseline. Adding the aforementioned difference gives a Winter average of 3.52°C above P-I. After the chilly first week, the rise was at first steep and then steady.

NorthWINTER20cfP-I

Under normal circumstances, this rise cannot be expected to continue through the northern Spring. However, the new coronavirus has cleared the skies above China of so much filth that Shanghai may get warmer still. Perhaps the other four stations will cool.

North-east England followed The Five – but less enthusiastically. At the end of this winter, Durham Tees was a mere 0.9°C warmer than the previous year.

DurTeesWINTER20cf19DIFF

Weeks 9 to 11 were not as warm as this graph makes them appear. There was a bit of a cold snap in the corresponding period last year.

DurTeesWINTER20cfP-I

This corner of England cooled markedly over the next nine months of 2019, ending the year at just 0.55 degrees centigrade above Pre-Industrial. A similar decline this year will bring us close to the Paris Target.

As mentioned in earlier weather posts, the southern hemisphere Summer has been much cooler this year at the Five Stations. I’ll share the figures and graphs next week.

Today’s Image

Five years to the day after photographing him on Muston Sands, I bumped into Angus this morning in Crescent Gardens. I was perhaps rude to ask the elderly gentleman’s age – he’s fourteen now and still very active.

Getting Warmer

Today’s Press Release from the Met Office, which received a few seconds of attention on BBC radio news programs this morning, couldn’t have been better timed for Today’s Image.

The difference eight years make! Here’s Filey seafront today –

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

How the trees have grown! As for the risen temperature, a decade is not nearly long enough to bring “climate change” into play. You need 30 years of weather data, at least, before hazarding observations about our atmospheric future.

In 2010 there wasn’t a Weather Underground PWS (Private Weather Station) in Filey to consult, but on the morning of 26 November 2010 the temperature in Whitby, thirty miles away, fell to -0.3°C. Today in the same place the minimum reached overnight was 5.28°C. Such differences on the same day of the year from one year to another, or on different days in the same month, are not unusual and are, obviously, survivable. Cold snaps and heatwaves often last only a few days here in the UK. What the Met Office doesn’t say in its Press Release is that, if summer temperatures here do rise by 5.4°C by 2070, and winter temperatures by 4.2°C, and stay so high for weeks on end, there may not be many humans around to “enjoy” them.

In the 20th century, the global temperature rose by 0.7 to 0.9°C, according to the climate.gov website. That rate has doubled in the last 40 years. So in 50 more years, add 0.9°C more. This seems rather conservative, and the UK Met Office appears to agree. On YouTube, Dahr Jamail explains the timid projections of the IPCC in 14 uncomfortable minutes.

Weather Eye, July

Last month was my tenth July in Filey so I have averaged monthly high temperatures and rainfall for the decade to compare with 2017 figures.

But first – the July highs from 1962 to the present.

JulAvMax62to17

This year, July in Whitby was just over 4°C warmer than in 1962, the trendline reducing the difference to about three degrees.

For the second month running 2017 has been wetter than the previous year.

PrecipJulCF2016

It rained in Filey all day on the 24th but in Whitby, my favourite weather station recorded a fall of only 2.3mm. Fourteen miles south of here, Bridlington received 23.9mm which is “more like it”. I think I mentioned last month that Whitby is maybe too far away, about 30 miles, to be a good proxy for Filey. Alas, Bridlington and other stations closer to home don’t offer records going back ten years.

Although the above graph gives July 2017 a wet look it was actually drier than the ten-year average, as were the four previous years.

JulyPrecipCF10yrAvge

July rainfall has been going against expectation. Warmer temperatures, I thought, usually give higher precipitation but perhaps a month isn’t long enough for weather systems to strut all their stuff.

How have July maximum temperatures compared to the ten-year average?

JulyHighCF10yrAvge

So, roughly speaking, 2013 has been the warmest midsummer month in the last ten years – and the driest. And this July was really nothing to write home about. A trendline on the above temperature graph would show a decadal rise of about a quarter of a degree centigrade compared to the three degrees over the last 55 years. A summer “pause” in Yorkshire coast warming?

A Touch on the Tiller

There are not enough hours in the day to do all I would like to with this blog. Barely two months in I’m going to have to change direction a little. Today’s Image was chosen from five “stock” photos to represent the clear focal point of LaF Redux going forward – the Parish Church of Filey with its graveyard, records, and memories of the town’s people. I’m going to concentrate a little more on “Churchyard Stories” and put more effort into entering information in the Looking at FileyWiki, with links (where they exist) to the FamilySearch Tree. This data entry effort is not glamorous. I would much rather research and write stories but, hey ho… I may only manage a couple of new/ updated LaF stories a week from now on.

Then there is my own family adventure. When I started this blog I had no idea I would stumble on the outrageous pedigree that links me to historical figures going way back to the Dark Ages and even earlier. I am keen to know the truth of these implied genetic connections and only have a chance of finding it if I devote more time to research – on paper and via DNA matching. The history of Filey and its People will have to take a side seat while I try to find out who my ancestors really were.

I will attempt to reach a balance and hope that those of you who have found this blog will continue to stop by occasionally.

I want to thank everyone who has ‘liked’ posts so far and those who are following LaF Redux. I appreciate your generous responses but have to confess I cannot find enough spare moments to see what all of you are up to. (If I tell you I hated every minute I was “on Facebook” you’ll understand I’m not by nature a social networking animal.)

One person has commented and offered kind suggestions for growing my audience. If he/she reads – I emailed to explain my position (old geezer in God’s Waiting Room not doing this for attention, thanks anyway) but the message bounced back undelivered.

I will try to respond to comments that advance knowledge and understanding of the people I write about but will be embarrassed into silence should I receive praise, however kindly it is offered.

 

Weather Eye, June

My weather figures come from thirty miles or so up the coast because I haven’t found any stations closer to Filey that can supply over half a century’s worth of data. The Whitby Coastguard data from 1962 to 2013/14 can be downloaded from the Met Office website. One of the Whitby Weather Underground stations has given me full years of data from 2010 to the present.

For the blog I will only use Daily Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation to describe the local weather. Thirty miles is quite a distance where micro climates are concerned but my observations will be so general that I don’t think it matters much to use Whitby as a proxy for the Filey experience. (There can be several degrees centigrade difference some days and storms can dump 15mm of rain on one town but not the other – but when the averages are calculated these differences all but vanish.)

JunAvMax62to17

The month of June delivers maximum daily temperatures in the high twenties here on the Yorkshire coast – but not often and the average rarely breaks 20°C. (I have just noticed that June 2003 tied with 1976 at 20.2 degrees; 20.1 in 2006.) The trendline indicates Yorkshire warming.

AvMaxBaseCF2017_JanJunejpgI chose a baseline period of 1979 to 2000 to enable comparisons to be made between this part of the world and major regions of the globe on Climate-Reanalyzer. It also tips a wink at the nonsense of the political figure of 2°C, the amount of warming we must avoid if we are not to compromise all life on earth. The baseline for the global comparison is usually given as the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and having lived for a quarter of a century in one of its Cradles I naturally think “1709” (Abraham DARBY, FST ID KVLT-8V2) – but 1850 is more often invoked. This graph shows that Whitby in June has warmed 3.5°C in the 38 years since the beginning of “my” baseline. (I know, January hasn’t risen much, and Whitby isn’t the world.)

Jun2017maxCF2016This third graph says quite a bit about June 2016 and 2017 if you look at it from the right angle. It doesn’t show the difference between the daily maximums on the same date but rather compares the ongoing average of the daily maximums throughout the month. June last year opened with a cool spell and this year a warm one. The second week flipped somewhat and we had to wait for the short heatwave of the 17th to 19th this year to push the declining difference up again, though even the month’s top temperature (28.9°C on the third heatwave day) doesn’t impact the average all that much. But you can clearly see we had some rather cool days compared to 2016 in the final week.

PrecipJanJunBaseCF20172017 has been a dry year so far. February precipitation was exactly the same as Baseline but the other four months were deficient, chronologically, in 21.4, 24.0, 25,1 and 18.3mm of rainfall. This graph indicates what a deal this is. It’s approaching half of what we are used to receiving.

PrecipJunCFbase

 

 

I heard a radio Weather Man a couple of days ago say that this June might end with record rainfall figures. Well, 37.5mm over Baseline isn’t all that much to shout about.

 

PrecipJun62to17v2

Here are the June rainfall totals from 1962. The past rolls up like a carpet behind me and I don’t remember much about 1982. Ditto 1997, but 2007… every Filonian will remember that one. My memory places the Coalbrookdale flood in June and I have always assumed Filey suffered its inundation at the same time. Checking online it appears that the big storm hit this coast on the 18th July. (Warmer temperatures put more moisture in the atmosphere. I don’t think this graph needs a trendline!)

From wet to dry – here’s the chap responsible for Today’s Image (previous post).

20150701Sandman1_2m