Warmth

The UK is experiencing near-record December temperatures and the 10-Day Hourly Forecast Map on Climate Reanalyzer shows the warmth is shared by most of Europe. At noon on New Year’s Day…

Four weeks into the 2021/22 Meteorological Year, the Weather Station at Ciampino (Rome) indicates Daily Mean Temperatures are running 12 times higher than the IPCC’s projection to a Global 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial by 2040. Rome is 1.35 degrees above P-I and North East England (Durham Tees) 0.2 degrees warmer still. Top of the charts of Ten Stations I monitor is Koltsovo (Yekaterinburg), 5°C above Pre-Industrial and currently warming 182 times faster than the IPCC suggests is unhealthy.

Below are two tables for Week 4 showing the Average Warming Rate for the years 2017/18 to 2020/21 and this year’s figures.

Signs, perhaps, that the Solar Minimum has its eye on the Southern Hemisphere.

(Data gathered from Weather Underground.)

Measure of Man 69 · Rocket Pole

Geograph

Cool Wellington

I was surprised to see reports this morning on Seemorerocks that New Zealand had experienced its warmest winter since records began, according to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA).

NIWA offers a figure of 1.14°C above average for the winter just ended.

The Institute’s chart indicates record taking began in 1909 at seven stations. Wellington is one of the seven but I don’t know how close it is geographically to Wellington International Airport (“my station”).

Last year, my Wellington failed to report almost four weeks of winter data to Weather Underground, so I had to use proxies for the missing days. My “normal” is calculated for ten years (2008-2017); the Institute’s from 1981 to 2010.

Wellington isn’t quite half the way down the two main islands but can be considered roughly average for temperature at the seven stations.

My 10 Year winter average: 10.1°, 2019: 11.5°, 2020: 11.0°C.

Putting my Wellington’s winters in their yearly context gives the following chart.

The weekly means are running averages from the beginning of the meteorological year. They confirm that Wellington has been much cooler this year than last. I’m not disputing NIWA’s figures. The other six NIWA stations have perhaps more than compensated to make this year’s NZ winter the warmest since 1909.

Even though Wellington International is much cooler this year than last, its IPCC Unit score shows it is well ahead of schedule to “reach Paris” by 2040. Adding 12 units of 0.0217°C (the per annum rise) to the IPCC’s projected 1.065°C at the end of this meteorological year gives the 1.33 degrees above Pre-Industrial in Week 39 shown above.

Read more about the Seven Station Temperature Series here.

Flower 20 · Ursinia (maybe)

Jewel of the Veldt at Scarborough Spa?

North-South Divide 2

The meteorological year is 21 weeks old. Enough time for a comparison to be made with last year’s temperature data from my Ten Stations.

Five stations in each hemisphere is a tiny sample of the total number reporting, so they are in no way representative of the whole world’s temperature experience. They do, however, combine to tell a story that can question the official climate change narrative.

The northern hemisphere is considerably warmer than it should be relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline. At the end of November 2019, the 5 Stations averaged 1.24°C above P-I. The chart below shows the marked difference this year.

Wk21_NorthIPCCunits

The relative warmth peaked in Week 16 at 127.46 IPCC units. This is massive when you consider the IPCC has projected a single unit rise annually until 2040 sees the Paris Accord’s 1.5°C above P-I reached – if humans fail to tackle the “climate emergency” successfully.

127.46 IPCC units equate to 3.84°C above P-I. The steep decline in five weeks is as welcome as it is surprising, given that reduced industrial activity and transport was expected by some to raise land surface temperatures.

The picture in the southern hemisphere is very different.

Wk21_SouthIPCCunits

Ending last year within a smidgen of 1.5°C above P-I, the south has effectively cooled by almost a degree. It would require a drop of another 23 IPCC units to make the southern hemisphere fall below the Pre-Industrial Baseline, but Rio de Janeiro has done that and Cape Town is currently just 0.04°C above P-I.

Despite the recent relative temperature decline in the north and the seeming stasis in the south the linear trends to the end of the year are up in the north and down in the south, suggesting the North-South divide will be maintained.

Wk21_GlobeIPCCunits

 

From the beginning of Week 6 to the middle of Week 18 the 10 Station “mini Globe” had maintained a temperature over 2°C above P-I. The trend from now to the end of the year is upwards, though it is possible that the cold times are coming.

Flower 15 · Mother-dee

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

My breakfast reading is currently Man and the Natural World (Keith Thomas) and discovering that Red Campion (Silene dioica­) has this disturbing vernacular name sent me along Church Walk this morning. Of little use as a food or medicine, this flower was thought, once upon a time, to kill the parents of any child who picked it. “Popular knowledge” in the Middle Ages bestowed a lot of other names upon it, some of them shared with other quite different flowers. Five are “Robin” names and half an hour after taking this photo I met a fine specimen of Erithacus rubecula in Martin’s Ravine.

Bird 80 · Robin

28_20200428Robin2_6m

Ten minutes later I reached the Glen Gardens cliff top and was thrilled to hear a ‘northern nightingale’, one of several birds once familiarly called Peggy. (The others are whitethroat, garden warbler, willow warbler and chiffchaff.) The lovely song was coming from a distant tree, the sea beyond.

Bird 81 · Blackcap

28_20200428Blackcap1_6m

Linneans chose to call “her” Sylvia atricapilla.

Fifteen more minutes and I was back in prison.

 

The Northern Winter

After a cold start, my small sample of five northern hemisphere weather stations developed a fever, the running average weekly mean ending the season 2.51°C warmer than the same period last year.

NorthWINTER20cf19DIFF

At Week 13 last year, Washington DC, Rome, Mumbai, Koltsovo and Shanghai were, together, running at 1.31°C above their Pre-Industrial baseline. Adding the aforementioned difference gives a Winter average of 3.52°C above P-I. After the chilly first week, the rise was at first steep and then steady.

NorthWINTER20cfP-I

Under normal circumstances, this rise cannot be expected to continue through the northern Spring. However, the new coronavirus has cleared the skies above China of so much filth that Shanghai may get warmer still. Perhaps the other four stations will cool.

North-east England followed The Five – but less enthusiastically. At the end of this winter, Durham Tees was a mere 0.9°C warmer than the previous year.

DurTeesWINTER20cf19DIFF

Weeks 9 to 11 were not as warm as this graph makes them appear. There was a bit of a cold snap in the corresponding period last year.

DurTeesWINTER20cfP-I

This corner of England cooled markedly over the next nine months of 2019, ending the year at just 0.55 degrees centigrade above Pre-Industrial. A similar decline this year will bring us close to the Paris Target.

As mentioned in earlier weather posts, the southern hemisphere Summer has been much cooler this year at the Five Stations. I’ll share the figures and graphs next week.

Today’s Image

Five years to the day after photographing him on Muston Sands, I bumped into Angus this morning in Crescent Gardens. I was perhaps rude to ask the elderly gentleman’s age – he’s fourteen now and still very active.

Getting Warmer

Today’s Press Release from the Met Office, which received a few seconds of attention on BBC radio news programs this morning, couldn’t have been better timed for Today’s Image.

The difference eight years make! Here’s Filey seafront today –

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

How the trees have grown! As for the risen temperature, a decade is not nearly long enough to bring “climate change” into play. You need 30 years of weather data, at least, before hazarding observations about our atmospheric future.

In 2010 there wasn’t a Weather Underground PWS (Private Weather Station) in Filey to consult, but on the morning of 26 November 2010 the temperature in Whitby, thirty miles away, fell to -0.3°C. Today in the same place the minimum reached overnight was 5.28°C. Such differences on the same day of the year from one year to another, or on different days in the same month, are not unusual and are, obviously, survivable. Cold snaps and heatwaves often last only a few days here in the UK. What the Met Office doesn’t say in its Press Release is that, if summer temperatures here do rise by 5.4°C by 2070, and winter temperatures by 4.2°C, and stay so high for weeks on end, there may not be many humans around to “enjoy” them.

In the 20th century, the global temperature rose by 0.7 to 0.9°C, according to the climate.gov website. That rate has doubled in the last 40 years. So in 50 more years, add 0.9°C more. This seems rather conservative, and the UK Met Office appears to agree. On YouTube, Dahr Jamail explains the timid projections of the IPCC in 14 uncomfortable minutes.

Weather Eye, July

Last month was my tenth July in Filey so I have averaged monthly high temperatures and rainfall for the decade to compare with 2017 figures.

But first – the July highs from 1962 to the present.

JulAvMax62to17

This year, July in Whitby was just over 4°C warmer than in 1962, the trendline reducing the difference to about three degrees.

For the second month running 2017 has been wetter than the previous year.

PrecipJulCF2016

It rained in Filey all day on the 24th but in Whitby, my favourite weather station recorded a fall of only 2.3mm. Fourteen miles south of here, Bridlington received 23.9mm which is “more like it”. I think I mentioned last month that Whitby is maybe too far away, about 30 miles, to be a good proxy for Filey. Alas, Bridlington and other stations closer to home don’t offer records going back ten years.

Although the above graph gives July 2017 a wet look it was actually drier than the ten-year average, as were the four previous years.

JulyPrecipCF10yrAvge

July rainfall has been going against expectation. Warmer temperatures, I thought, usually give higher precipitation but perhaps a month isn’t long enough for weather systems to strut all their stuff.

How have July maximum temperatures compared to the ten-year average?

JulyHighCF10yrAvge

So, roughly speaking, 2013 has been the warmest midsummer month in the last ten years – and the driest. And this July was really nothing to write home about. A trendline on the above temperature graph would show a decadal rise of about a quarter of a degree centigrade compared to the three degrees over the last 55 years. A summer “pause” in Yorkshire coast warming?

A Touch on the Tiller

There are not enough hours in the day to do all I would like to with this blog. Barely two months in I’m going to have to change direction a little. Today’s Image was chosen from five “stock” photos to represent the clear focal point of LaF Redux going forward – the Parish Church of Filey with its graveyard, records, and memories of the town’s people. I’m going to concentrate a little more on “Churchyard Stories” and put more effort into entering information in the Looking at FileyWiki, with links (where they exist) to the FamilySearch Tree. This data entry effort is not glamorous. I would much rather research and write stories but, hey ho… I may only manage a couple of new/ updated LaF stories a week from now on.

Then there is my own family adventure. When I started this blog I had no idea I would stumble on the outrageous pedigree that links me to historical figures going way back to the Dark Ages and even earlier. I am keen to know the truth of these implied genetic connections and only have a chance of finding it if I devote more time to research – on paper and via DNA matching. The history of Filey and its People will have to take a side seat while I try to find out who my ancestors really were.

I will attempt to reach a balance and hope that those of you who have found this blog will continue to stop by occasionally.

I want to thank everyone who has ‘liked’ posts so far and those who are following LaF Redux. I appreciate your generous responses but have to confess I cannot find enough spare moments to see what all of you are up to. (If I tell you I hated every minute I was “on Facebook” you’ll understand I’m not by nature a social networking animal.)

One person has commented and offered kind suggestions for growing my audience. If he/she reads – I emailed to explain my position (old geezer in God’s Waiting Room not doing this for attention, thanks anyway) but the message bounced back undelivered.

I will try to respond to comments that advance knowledge and understanding of the people I write about but will be embarrassed into silence should I receive praise, however kindly it is offered.

 

Weather Eye, June

My weather figures come from thirty miles or so up the coast because I haven’t found any stations closer to Filey that can supply over half a century’s worth of data. The Whitby Coastguard data from 1962 to 2013/14 can be downloaded from the Met Office website. One of the Whitby Weather Underground stations has given me full years of data from 2010 to the present.

For the blog I will only use Daily Maximum Temperatures and Precipitation to describe the local weather. Thirty miles is quite a distance where micro climates are concerned but my observations will be so general that I don’t think it matters much to use Whitby as a proxy for the Filey experience. (There can be several degrees centigrade difference some days and storms can dump 15mm of rain on one town but not the other – but when the averages are calculated these differences all but vanish.)

JunAvMax62to17

The month of June delivers maximum daily temperatures in the high twenties here on the Yorkshire coast – but not often and the average rarely breaks 20°C. (I have just noticed that June 2003 tied with 1976 at 20.2 degrees; 20.1 in 2006.) The trendline indicates Yorkshire warming.

AvMaxBaseCF2017_JanJunejpgI chose a baseline period of 1979 to 2000 to enable comparisons to be made between this part of the world and major regions of the globe on Climate-Reanalyzer. It also tips a wink at the nonsense of the political figure of 2°C, the amount of warming we must avoid if we are not to compromise all life on earth. The baseline for the global comparison is usually given as the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and having lived for a quarter of a century in one of its Cradles I naturally think “1709” (Abraham DARBY, FST ID KVLT-8V2) – but 1850 is more often invoked. This graph shows that Whitby in June has warmed 3.5°C in the 38 years since the beginning of “my” baseline. (I know, January hasn’t risen much, and Whitby isn’t the world.)

Jun2017maxCF2016This third graph says quite a bit about June 2016 and 2017 if you look at it from the right angle. It doesn’t show the difference between the daily maximums on the same date but rather compares the ongoing average of the daily maximums throughout the month. June last year opened with a cool spell and this year a warm one. The second week flipped somewhat and we had to wait for the short heatwave of the 17th to 19th this year to push the declining difference up again, though even the month’s top temperature (28.9°C on the third heatwave day) doesn’t impact the average all that much. But you can clearly see we had some rather cool days compared to 2016 in the final week.

PrecipJanJunBaseCF20172017 has been a dry year so far. February precipitation was exactly the same as Baseline but the other four months were deficient, chronologically, in 21.4, 24.0, 25,1 and 18.3mm of rainfall. This graph indicates what a deal this is. It’s approaching half of what we are used to receiving.

PrecipJunCFbase

 

 

I heard a radio Weather Man a couple of days ago say that this June might end with record rainfall figures. Well, 37.5mm over Baseline isn’t all that much to shout about.

 

PrecipJun62to17v2

Here are the June rainfall totals from 1962. The past rolls up like a carpet behind me and I don’t remember much about 1982. Ditto 1997, but 2007… every Filonian will remember that one. My memory places the Coalbrookdale flood in June and I have always assumed Filey suffered its inundation at the same time. Checking online it appears that the big storm hit this coast on the 18th July. (Warmer temperatures put more moisture in the atmosphere. I don’t think this graph needs a trendline!)

From wet to dry – here’s the chap responsible for Today’s Image (previous post).

20150701Sandman1_2m