A Masking Effect

We couldn’t be further from a One World Order. Rich and powerful countries impose sanctions on poorer, weaker countries struggling with the effects of a bioweapon that gives people the ‘flu. Countries with a high proportion of narcissist sociopaths project their terrible behaviour onto nations that are, on balance, balanced. Some countries deal sensibly with the psycho-made health challenge, others want the most damage to be done to their people and so do nothing except look busy.

Some countries urge their citizens not to wear face masks. Others encourage the practice. Chris Martenson posted an informative graph today.

20200330Mask1

Interesting that the countries that go masked are having most success flattening their curves – and haven’t been laying waste to the Middle East for the past twenty years or so. For a better image and explanation visit Peak Prosperity. Learn more about masks – and how one European country has embraced the curve flatteners so wholeheartedly that from a zero start most of the inhabitants are now wearing them.

20200330Mask2

Meanwhile, in the benighted UK, police are attempting to shame people who are doing no harm walking in open countryside, whilst airports allow flights in from “epicentre countries” without health-checking incoming passengers. Welcome to the UK. Enjoy your spreading visit.

The Global Dimming Effect

Just Have a Think has addressed the possibility of a temperature spike as a result of reduced industrial activity and travel.

Two weeks ago, my Ten Weather Stations were a bit spikey. Last week, with one extreme exception, they went the other way.

Wk17_MeanIncDecr_10

I noticed this morning that several stations had revised their March data. The changes were both up and down, so there is no obvious attempt to make their locations warmer or colder. And the differences over the month amounted to only a couple of hundredths of a degree. Durham Tees was on a four-day week so I’ve used Newcastle as a temporary proxy for the missing data.

I have added Week 17’s running average Mean temperatures compared to the Pre-Industrial Baseline. The North-South divide is unchanged. I have seen other sources proclaiming the Earth has left the Paris target in the rear-view mirror. Forever?

A Little Bit Warmer

A prediction that the globe may warm by about a degree centigrade over the next few months because of reduced fossil fuel burning is still a reasonable bet. Last week, six of my Ten Stations were cooler than the week before, but by such small amounts that the “mini Globe” warmed by 0.008°C.

Seven of the stations were warmer in Week 16 than the week before. Going against the trend of the meteorological year so far, the southern hemisphere was warmer than the north (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline). The rise was 0.021°C. This may seem insignificant but it is an IPCC year’s worth of extra heat in the projection game.

Wk16_MeanIncDecr_10

Millions of locked down people have other things to worry about but there’s no escaping climate and environmental matters with Greta and Prince Charles catching Covid-19.

The Southern Summer

Last year, my five southern hemisphere stations came within a whisker of going above the Paris Accord target. By week 4 this meteorological year they fell to a running average mean temperature of 0.55°C and bumped along at that level to the end of summer.

SouthSUMMER20cfP-I

The first two relatively warm weeks ensured an overall cooling trend.

SouthSUMMER20cf19DIFF

The northern winter’s somewhat extreme warmth (represented by the five stations) was more than enough keep my “mini-globe” at two degrees centigrade or more above the Pre-Industrial baseline for 9 of the 13 weeks, and above Paris for all but the first week.

GlobeQ1_20cfP-I

Will the 5 southern stations warm enough in the next nine months to reach the IPCC projection of 1.065°C above P-I? This would seem unlikely as Climate Change sceptics have recently been pointing to the extreme winter cold in the northern hemisphere!

“Meanwhile, Europe is et to be hit by a brutal Arctic blast that will cause temperatures to plummet and heavy snow to strike this week…Motorists across large swathes of Britain faced a severe ice risk while driving home the other night after 300 schools were closed. Britain enters Spring this week but you’d be forgiven for thinking that Global Warming has gone on strike, with snow expected to blanket large parts of Britain over the next few weeks. And in places up north, it is expected to be twelve inches deep.”

Vivid stuff, huh? If you want to see pictures, check out Rowan Dean on Sky Australia (start at 4.30). I can’t recall seeing any snow on the Yorkshire coast this winter and have only needed to wear gloves on three of my 180 walks.

Rowan goes on to describe the recent chilling of the United States, going against the grain of my Washington DC temperatures, (ending winter at 1.87 degrees C above Pre-Industrial), and a Weather Underground blog post – February Wraps Up One of Warmest US Winters on Record.

Catching Cold

Rowan Dean at Sky Australia won’t have a bar of Global Warming. There’s nothing cheers him so much as a slew of record cold temperatures.

David DuByne seems to prefer chilliness too and posts some very appealing photos of camels in snowy Arabian deserts.

The Grand Solar Minimum has yet to bite though, and in the last 365 days, there have been more record high temperatures than low (according to NOAA/UCAR).

In my small world of Ten Weather Stations, at the end of Week 12 of the meteorological year, the Northern Hemisphere continues toasty. A cool southern summer has had an impact on the “global” figure – but not enough to send it in to the blue. The Mean Temperature this year (running average-to-date) is 0.77°C warmer than last.

Wk12_cfLastYrTable

The hemisphere “split” is just as stark in the Table showing current Mean Temperature above the Ten Station Pre-Industrial Baseline.

Wk12_cfP-ITable

I guess we can blame the Russians for thwarting the Mini Ice Age.

 

Colder Than I Think

A few days ago a Google algorithm decided I would be interested in a YouTube video that makes a mockery of my Ten Weather Stations project.

Temperatures are Falling across the Globe

The IPCC’s “Pre-Industrial” is a late starter because of the dearth of 19th-century temperature data. Records didn’t really “begin” until around 1880. The IPCC has therefore chosen a baseline period of 1850 to 1900, giving 14 decades since the mid-point (roughly) and 2017. In that time the global mean land temperature is reckoned to have risen by one-degree centigrade. This is a straight line rise of 0.07°C per decade.

NOAA’s own temperature figures for the five years 2015 to 2019 reveal that the global temperature has DECREASED by -0.14°C per decade, a COOLING RATE about three times greater than the previous warming.

The Southern Hemisphere temperature has DECREASED by -0.7 degrees.

The Northern Hemisphere temperature has DECREASED by -0.2 degrees.

Compared to the previous Warming Rate:-

South America has COOLED 8 times faster than the warming rate, the Caribbean Islands 10 times, and North America 28 times.

Watch the video for graphs with trendlines for these and other areas of the globe. Oh, virus stricken “Asia”, pumping out all that blanket making carbon dioxide, is cooling at four tines the previous rate of warming.

“Not wishing to be accused of cherry-picking”, the makers of the video chose the most recent five years to assess temperature changes, “selecting the same range as that selected by NASA”. They used the same method and tool used by NOAA.

I don’t have any objection to any of this but would just point out that if 2015 and 2016 are the warmest years of the five it will be downhill all the way thereafter for the trendlines.

That aside, I seem to have chosen 10 anomalous Weather Stations. After ten weeks of this meteorological year, all five northern hemisphere stations are running temperatures of 2 degrees centigrade above Pre-Industrial or higher. Last year there was just one. After ten weeks last year, three southern hemisphere stations were more than 2 degrees above P-I; this year there are none.

The stations combine to give a global running average of 2.13°C above P-I, which is a Warming Rate 49 times greater than the IPCC projected temperature rise to the end of 2020.

There is an important difference in how I calculate my warming/cooling rates compared to the video makers. The IPCC Paris Accord Projection to 1.5°C in 2040 posits an annual rise from 2017 of 0.217°C per decade, not the 0.07 degrees of the previous fourteen decades. If I used the older/lower figure my rate of global WARMING this year-to-date would be 152 times greater, not 49.

Here is Week 10’s Table of Mean Temperatures above P-I (running averages).

10_TenStationsTable

Update 12 February

The Difference Five Years Make?

Not much at my Ten Stations.

Unlike the wider regions referenced in the YouTube video, five stations showed warming trends in both the 10 and 5-meteorological year runs (2010 to 1019 and 2015 to 2019).

Only one station, Mumbai, cooled over the ten years – but warmed over the last five.

Two stations, Rome and Koltsovo, clearly cooled over five years and warmed over ten, the only stations where the extra five years made a clear difference.

Koltsovo_10yrMean

Koltsovo_5yrMean

Shanghai and Cape Town clearly warmed over ten years but their five-year trendlines appear flat. Siding with the underdog, I colour them blue.

Shanghai_5yrMean

 

The Difference a Day Makes

The final week of Meteorological Year 2018/19 had eight days in it. This year “Met Weeks” run from Sunday to Saturday – and Sunday is Temperature taking day. There is clearly an opportunity now to compare 2019/20 with last year, but I hope to present findings in a simpler, clearer fashion. I created some tables and graphs today that even I can’t understand.

Given that “climate emergency” is now mainstream, I’d like to keep a finger on the pulse, using data that are (I hope) trustworthy. (New Meteorological Year resolution – I’m going to try not to make any more silly calculation mistakes. I’ve found a few after posting, though they rarely exceed tenths of a degree and so have possibly gone unnoticed.)

One tidbit from today’s labours. Durham Tees, the “coldest” of the eleven stations last year, was the “warmest” in the first week of the new year. It returned a Mean temperature of 3.14°C above (my) Pre-Industrial baseline. Last year it averaged just 0.55 degrees above P-I, so in one week my “home patch” warmed at a rate 119 times higher than projected by the IPCC. Mumbai was second at 100 times warmer.

There is no need to panic. Six of the 10 Stations were cooler and cool enough to bring the IPCC “multiplier” down to x2 for “the Globe”. Phew!

Year-End

A new meteorological year begins.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change asks a question.

GlobalWarming1.5C

It seems a bit odd that this graph offers 1850 to 1900 as “pre-industrial”. But, moving on, the Panel’s one degree goes up against my 0.85°C rise since around 1700 (when Abraham Darby began using coke in his iron furnaces).

20191201MetYrTable

I collected the last days of November data from Weather Underground this morning and, if I haven’t made any calculation errors, this is the final Table for my Ten Stations plus Durham Tees. In Week 52, Rome returned the most extreme departure from my pre-industrial base. If all stations had been 3.87°C above, we could look forward to being toast. (The IPCC reckoning would have put Rome at 4.02 degrees above P-I.)

Note the three stations that broke through the Paris Target. The IPCC suggests that it will take 23 more years (from 2017) for the globe to warm the 0.5°C to take it to the limit already passed by Rio, Koltsovo and Wellington. Assuming a steady rise, this is approximately 0.02 degrees per year, hence the IPCC 1.04 in the table (for comparative purposes, but keep in mind that an extra 0.15°C needs to be added to my 10 Station Mini-Globe’s 1.20).

I’ll keep monitoring. See what next Met Year brings.