In advance of COP 26, beginning at the end of the month, I thought I’d catch up with my Ten Weather Stations.
At the end of Week 46, the Ten are running 0.32°C cooler than last year. Five stations are a bit warmer, but Koltsovo’s eye watering 2.39°C drop, lowers the Northern 5 average by 0.58 degrees.
But Koltsovo was over 4°C above Pre-Industrial at this time last year and is currently the third warmest of the Ten Stations (1.7°C above P-I).
The IPCC’s “Paris Target” of keeping global average temperature below 1.5°C in 2040 seems at risk, but there is some encouragement with five stations currently cooler than the global estimate of 1°C at the end of 2017.
If the mean global temperature rises by 0.02174°C (one “IPCC unit”) each year from 2017, the Paris Target will be reached in 2040.
Ten Weather Stations represent a small proportion of the globe. For them to be warming 9 times more than the IPCC projection is probably nothing to worry about. The COPpers in Glasgow may have other ideas.
Last week I posted a chart showing Mean Temperatures above Pre-Industrial for the six northern and five southern Weather Stations I am monitoring. Seasonal warmth relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline was greatest in Mumbai and least in Cape Town. Below is a graph showing the experience of both places in the 2021 Meteorological Year so far. I have used Warming Rate figures because, being finer grained, they make the differences between the two places clearer. (My IPCC units are probably proprietary – I haven’t seen them used anywhere else. One unit is the rise in mean global temperature each year if 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial is to be reached in 2040, from the one degree posited at the end of 2017.)
One IPCC unit is equivalent to 0.02174°C and three years 7 months have passed since the end of November 2017. At Week 29 of the 2021 meteorological year the IPCC projection has reached a global figure of 1.07733 degrees above Pre-Industrial. Cape Town is doing us all a service by being well below the global average. For the year to date, however, Sydney is currently the coolest of my eleven stations. The running mean temperature there has been dropping steadily since December, whereas Cape Town it is rising.
I used a Ten Year average mean temperature for each weather station to establish a Pre-Industrial baseline (Met Years 2008/9 to 2017/18). Below is a Table to show the relationship between mean temperatures, IPCC units and mean temperatures above Pre-Industrial. It may seem rather excessive to show these to five decimal places (except for the Warming Rate in IPCC units) but I’ll do it just this once! (The default order of the Weather Stations is west to east, north then south with my local station, Durham Tees an added extra to the Ten Station “study”.)
You will have to take on trust my Mean Running Temperatures for the 10 Years and 2021 but you may find it fun to do your own math to arrive at the current temperatures above Pre-Industrial and the “Warming Rates”. The P-I colour coding is simple – red for Danger (2°C and over), orange for above Paris but below 2°C, green for Goldilocks, (not too warm, not too cold). I have highlighted Koltsovo’s running mean temperature – over half way through the year and it is still in the blue.
Another perspective on this year’s temperatures-to-date is to compare them with 2020 at Week 29.
That Koltsovo is 3.73°C cooler than last year is quite staggering but four of the stations are warmer, reducing the Global 10 figure to just a little over half a degree. There are thousands of other weather stations reporting so there is no telling if these figures indicate the onset of the expected Grand Solar Minimum.
April seemed unusually cold on the Yorkshire Coast, and May cold and wet. But the mean temperature data from the Durham Tees weather station indicates the season was actually a tiny bit warmer than the average for the last thirteen years.
It was maybe the seemingly relentless wind that chilled us.
Note the trend line in the above chart. Perhaps north-east England is anomalous because a Government Report out this month tells us we should not just be afraid of catching ‘flu. (Gee, I hope I don’t get a Delta Variant runny nose.) UK Column extracted a quote from the Report for their bulletin yesterday.
You may recall that the IPCC claimed in 2017 that the global average temperature had increased by one degree centigrade since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and projected it would reach 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial by 2040.
Taking the running average mean temperatures from the start of the current meteorological year, two of the five northern hemisphere weather stations I monitor (other than Durham Tees) were well above the dreaded 2°C by the end of Spring. Mumbai at 2.66 and Shanghai 2.42. Koltsovo, which has been very warm over the last few years, has cooled to a smidgen over the “Paris Target” of 1.5°C. Four of the five southern hemisphere stations have been quite cool throughout their autumn, with Cape Town being only 0.47 degrees above P-I. The 10 stations representing the Globe average 1.23°C above Pre-Industrial. If one gives each day since the end of November 2017 an equal bite of the 0.5°C rise to 2040, the projected global temperature at the end of Q 2 this year is 1.08 degrees. My Ten Stations collectively are therefore warming seven times faster than projected. Durham Tees is cooling by a little less than one “IPCC Unit” (0.02174°C per year).
Returning to Durham Tees, below is a graph showing the progression of mean temperature above Pre-Industrial through the warmest spring of the last 13 years, the coolest, and for the last three years.
This clearly shows that April and May this year were indeed chillier than March but in following 2019’s trend the season ended up distinctly average.
The Paris Temperature goal is to keep global warming below 1.5°C and obviously every little Covid CO2 emission drop will help.
Global average temperature is considered by the IPCC to have reached one degree centigrade above Pre-Industrial by the end of 2017. A steady rise of 0.0217°C per year will take us to 1.5 degrees above P-I in 2040. At the end of the first quarter of this meteorological year the global average is notionally 1.07066°C above P-I. There are a lot of numbers in the Ten Station Table below but the “bottom line” is:-
My five northern hemisphere stations have collectively warmed 42 times faster than the IPCC 2017 projection, and the five southern stations have cooled by 3 IPCC units.
The progress of the hemispheres from the beginning of December 2020 is shown below.
Clearly, we need Covid-21, -23, -25 etc if we are not to fry. A cool southern hemisphere is not going to cut the mustard.
Moving house is supposed to be one of the most stressful life events but I think the world turning upside down, inside out and back to front is the main reason I can’t get back into the old routine. I spend too many hours a day trying to understand what is going on around me.
I noticed this on Church Walk yesterday.
That’s Covid dealt with.
Now for the Climate Emergency. There seems to be agreement that 2011 to 2020 was the warmest decade in the “persistent long-term climate change trend”, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 the three warmest years.
We are almost half-way through the first quarter of the 2021 meteorological year and, if my Ten Stations are to be considered representative of the globe, change is in the air.
I am tracking the running average daily mean temperatures and comparing this year’s figures with the average for the four years 2018 to 2021.
At the end of Week 6 only four stations are warmer than the 4 year average. The 5-station hemispheres and 10-station globe are cooler this year-to-date. Of course, this could change for the warmer over the next 46 weeks. (I have thrown “local” station Durham Tees in for good measure.)
Note the stand-out cold place is currently Koltsovo but the Yekaterinburg district has experienced mean temperatures six degrees centigrade above pre-industrial recently, so when it comes to “warming rates” (averaged over the last four years) it still leads the pack.
An IPCC unit is the amount the mean temperature must rise each year to reach the Climate Change Panel’s projection of 1.5°C above pre-industrial by 2040. That my five southern stations are now contributing to a global cooling is interesting. Maybe there is no need for a Great Reset to address the Climate Crisis.
At the end of Week 6 this year, the 10-station global mean temperature is 0.09°C cooler than the IPCC’s projection made in 2017. This has now reached 1.0677°C above P-I, though Bloomberg suggests Earth burned through the 1.2 degree mark last year.
At the end of meteorological year 2020 all five of the southern hemisphere stations I monitor were cooler than in 2019; Buenos Aires by 0.25°C and Rio de Janeiro by 1.26 degrees. Four of the northern stations were warmer by a large enough margin to raise the Ten Station Globe mean temperature difference by 0.16°C.
This may not seem much, but it is seven times greater than the IPCC’s annual “allowance” if earth’s mean temperature is to steadily climb to the Paris Accord projection of 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial levels by 2040.
Three years have passed since the IPCC suggested that the annual global mean temperature had risen by one degree centigrade since the First Industrial Revolution began. If one accepts a steady rise of 0.0217°C each year to 2040, the Global “target” figure a few days ago was 1.065°C. For the Ten Stations it was 1.47 degrees. By chance, the five southern stations posted 1.465°C above P-I last year. Cooling this year has pushed this down to 0.87 degrees above P-I. The northern five have collectively warmed from 1.24 to 2.07°C above Pre-Industrial.
This results in a ten station warming rate of 19 IPCC units.
Much of the extra heat in the meteorological year just ended was generated in the Arctic. Koltsovo (Yekaterinburg) copped some of it.
NOAAinforms us that 2019 was the second warmest year on record. Yesterday, BBC News said that calendar 2020 was shaping up to be the third warmest year since records began. Perhaps December is going to be extremely cold everywhere. Put several layers of masks on, folks.
It is a while since I updated the running average temperatures of my Ten Weather Stations. There have been countless extreme weather events recently. The usual suspects of heat, fire, flood and ice melt joined by the occasional surprise package, like summer snowfalls in China. But none have done much to alter the trends in my token scraps of the planet.
The five representatives of the northern hemisphere have continued to cool. The southern five have been much cooler this meteorological year than last, but over the last ten weeks their temperatures have started to rise, and may continue to do so until November.
I have simplified the graphs by not naming the 5 stations but in order of warmth in Week 27 (with mean temperatures in degrees Centigrade above the Pre-Industrial baseline) they are Koltsovo (5.52), Shanghai (2.87), Rome (2.40), Mumbai (2.16) and Washington DC (1.39). They combine to trend steadily downwards but are still well above the IPCC’s 2040 Paris Accord projected target.
Wellington is warmest of the southern 5 (1.11), followed by Buenos Aires (0.97), Sydney (0.82), Cape Town (0.3) and Rio de Janeiro (-0.18). Together they are over 0.2°C cooler than the global average in 2017, as determined by the IPCC.
I don’t know why the running average temperature is so different in the two hemispheres this year – and have not seen any explanations online while checking if climate change is still a hoax or not. My Ten Station Globe’s recent experience looks like this:-
The Ten Stations are currently warming at a rate 25 times greater than hoped for by the IPCC. (At the end of this year the temperature above Pre-Industrial is projected to be 1.06°C. Adding 25 “IPCC units” to this gives the 1.61 degrees indicated in the graph above. One unit is the projected annual global average rise of 0.0217°C.)
That Other Hoax
The “inventor” of the PCR Test says it should not be used to detect COVID 19 in the human animal (or paw paw or goat). It seems to be widely accepted that 80% of the pointless tests give “false positives”. So the four members of the family in New Zealand that have triggered the lockdown of Auckland may not have the infamous disease at all. Across the Tasman, Kim Jong Dan is doing terrible things to the population of Victoria. Police have been videoed strangling a young woman and body-slamming her to the payment – for not wearing a face covering.
So, two of the countries least affected by the novel flu are rapidly turning into the most tyrannical. New Zealand is on course to be under martial law by the beginning of October.
Yesterday I chose ten countries to “follow”, just to see if the next lockdown of the UK could be justified by “the figures”. What figures? Number of cases cannot be trusted. Number of COVID 19 deaths reported cannot be trusted. (How many people who haven’t had a test have been sent letters informing them that they are Covid positive?) In truth, there are no reliable data for the disease anywhere.
Although they may have been inflated in various underhand ways, I am running with the reported COVID deaths. Worldometers calculate deaths per million population for every country. It is easy to spot the countries that have been “hit hard”.
I thought I’d calculate the chances of dying from (or with) COVID 19 by simply dividing the number of deaths by the country’s population. Yesterday my Number One country, against which the other nine would be measured, was Australia. Hearing about about the poor Kiwis facing outright tyranny this morning made me add New Zealand to the list. I’m not quite organized yet so the Table below should be treated with caution. It seems to be heading in the right direction – in that the chance of dying from (with) COVID in rank order is the same as Worldometers Deaths per Million list. (The two sets of figures have a family resemblance.)
Note: Not all the populations are the latest “live” figures. The Worldometer “perMil” figures were accessed early this afternoon. I hope to take the temperature of the 11 countries at a set hour each day but the immediate takeaway is that I am at least 150 times more likely to die of/with COVID in the UK than the average New Zealander. Of course, being over 70 I have the regime’s cross-hairs on my heart or forehead. Curious how a country where the chances are 0.0005% of being killed by/with COVID can become the most fascistic nation on earth in a heartbeat.
The UK was unusually warm last week. Half a million of the fed-up locked down were reported to have crowded Bournemouth’s beaches. It was a little cooler in the north-east and at Durham Tees Airport (my “local” weather station) the week ended only 0.08 degrees Centigrade warmer than the week before. I was surprised the differential wasn’t greater, and astonished that Durham Tees, the outsider, beat every one of “the Ten” in the warmth stakes last week.
Given the attention Siberia and the Arctic have been receiving for extraordinary heat, you may wonder at Koltsovo’s 0.36°C drop from its Week 29 Mean. Koltsovo is east of the Urals and considered by some authorities to be part of Russia’s Sibir. Tell that to the folk in Yekaterinburg, twenty minutes by car from Koltsovo Airport. Whatever, while Siberia burned last week, the Urals almost froze. I exaggerate. Koltsovo’s mean temperature for the week was 11.9°C (53.4°F) and Durham Tees 19.2°C (a devilish 66.6°F).
For the Year to Date, the 5 northern stations dropped to 2.63°C above Pre-Industrial by the end of last week. The southern stations continued the gentle warming trend of the last five weeks to reach 0.73°C above P-I. The Ten Station Globe is currently running at 1.68 degrees above P-I, warmer than is comfortable for the Paris Accord people. The Ten Stations warming rate had risen to 52 IPCC units by Week 16 but it has steadily reduced to just 28 units in Week 30. (One unit is the amount the Earth is projected to warm each year by the International Panel on Climate Change, from 2017 to 2040.)
The meteorological year is 21 weeks old. Enough time for a comparison to be made with last year’s temperature data from my Ten Stations.
Five stations in each hemisphere is a tiny sample of the total number reporting, so they are in no way representative of the whole world’s temperature experience. They do, however, combine to tell a story that can question the official climate change narrative.
The northern hemisphere is considerably warmer than it should be relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline. At the end of November 2019, the 5 Stations averaged 1.24°C above P-I. The chart below shows the marked difference this year.
The relative warmth peaked in Week 16 at 127.46 IPCC units. This is massive when you consider the IPCC has projected a single unit rise annually until 2040 sees the Paris Accord’s 1.5°C above P-I reached – if humans fail to tackle the “climate emergency” successfully.
127.46 IPCC units equate to 3.84°C above P-I. The steep decline in five weeks is as welcome as it is surprising, given that reduced industrial activity and transport was expected by some to raise land surface temperatures.
The picture in the southern hemisphere is very different.
Ending last year within a smidgen of 1.5°C above P-I, the south has effectively cooled by almost a degree. It would require a drop of another 23 IPCC units to make the southern hemisphere fall below the Pre-Industrial Baseline, but Rio de Janeiro has done that and Cape Town is currently just 0.04°C above P-I.
Despite the recent relative temperature decline in the north and the seeming stasis in the south the linear trends to the end of the year are up in the north and down in the south, suggesting the North-South divide will be maintained.
From the beginning of Week 6 to the middle of Week 18 the 10 Station “mini Globe” had maintained a temperature over 2°C above P-I. The trend from now to the end of the year is upwards, though it is possible that the cold times are coming.
Flower 15 · Mother-dee
My breakfast reading is currently Man and the Natural World (Keith Thomas) and discovering that Red Campion (Silene dioica) has this disturbing vernacular name sent me along Church Walk this morning. Of little use as a food or medicine, this flower was thought, once upon a time, to kill the parents of any child who picked it. “Popular knowledge” in the Middle Ages bestowed a lot of other names upon it, some of them shared with other quite different flowers. Five are “Robin” names and half an hour after taking this photo I met a fine specimen of Erithacus rubecula in Martin’s Ravine.
Bird 80 · Robin
Ten minutes later I reached the Glen Gardens cliff top and was thrilled to hear a ‘northern nightingale’, one of several birds once familiarly called Peggy. (The others are whitethroat, garden warbler, willow warbler and chiffchaff.) The lovely song was coming from a distant tree, the sea beyond.
It may be lockdown lethargy, or the brain fog many are suffering whilst sheltering in place – I’ve lost my impetus where genealogy and family history are concerned. But I can still juggle happily with numbers for hours on end. Disappointed with the appearance of a graph showing temperature differences this year in the two hemispheres (relative to the Pre-industrial baseline), I sought a whole measure smaller than a degree centigrade or Fahrenheit and found one. I have called it an “IPCC unit”.
The International Panel on Climate Change issued a paper at the time of the Paris Accord that declared the global average temperature had risen one-degree centigrade above Pre-Industrial by 2017. It suggested a further half a degree rise by 2040 – to the 1.5°C limit that should be avoided at all costs.
Assuming an unwavering linear rise, we are looking at a modest-seeming 0.0217°C per annum. (I reckon that to be 0.0391 degrees in Fahrenheit money.)
Creating the graph using IPCC units gives this picture of weekly temperature relative to Pre-Industrial, reported by my Ten Stations over the last thirteen weeks.
I have kept it as simple as possible to make it clear that the northern stations are responsible for all the above-average global warming in this time period and the southern stations for all but a tiny bit of the cooling.
Koltsovo has warmed at over 250 times the rate projected by the IPCC. Rio de Janeiro is the “coolest” of the stations.
Koltsovo has cooled by about 55 IPCC units over the thirteen weeks. That’s about 1.2°C, down from 7.8°C above Pre-Industrial to 6.6 degrees. (Global warming isn’t a hoax in Russia.)
Rio’s average weekly mean temperature over this period was 25.6°C but it cooled about 12 IPCC units, or 0.25°C, from 0.19 to 0.44 degrees BELOW Pre-Industrial.
Shanghai is the northern station that is closely tracking the hemisphere average.
The Ten Station Globe has dropped from 2.09°C above Pre-Industrial in Week 8 to 1.89 degrees in week 20. It is, however, a long drop to a rise of only a single IPCC unit by the end of the meteorological year.