Colder Than I Think

A few days ago a Google algorithm decided I would be interested in a YouTube video that makes a mockery of my Ten Weather Stations project.

Temperatures are Falling across the Globe

The IPCC’s “Pre-Industrial” is a late starter because of the dearth of 19th-century temperature data. Records didn’t really “begin” until around 1880. The IPCC has therefore chosen a baseline period of 1850 to 1900, giving 14 decades since the mid-point (roughly) and 2017. In that time the global mean land temperature is reckoned to have risen by one-degree centigrade. This is a straight line rise of 0.07°C per decade.

NOAA’s own temperature figures for the five years 2015 to 2019 reveal that the global temperature has DECREASED by -0.14°C per decade, a COOLING RATE about three times greater than the previous warming.

The Southern Hemisphere temperature has DECREASED by -0.7 degrees.

The Northern Hemisphere temperature has DECREASED by -0.2 degrees.

Compared to the previous Warming Rate:-

South America has COOLED 8 times faster than the warming rate, the Caribbean Islands 10 times, and North America 28 times.

Watch the video for graphs with trendlines for these and other areas of the globe. Oh, virus stricken “Asia”, pumping out all that blanket making carbon dioxide, is cooling at four tines the previous rate of warming.

“Not wishing to be accused of cherry-picking”, the makers of the video chose the most recent five years to assess temperature changes, “selecting the same range as that selected by NASA”. They used the same method and tool used by NOAA.

I don’t have any objection to any of this but would just point out that if 2015 and 2016 are the warmest years of the five it will be downhill all the way thereafter for the trendlines.

That aside, I seem to have chosen 10 anomalous Weather Stations. After ten weeks of this meteorological year, all five northern hemisphere stations are running temperatures of 2 degrees centigrade above Pre-Industrial or higher. Last year there was just one. After ten weeks last year, three southern hemisphere stations were more than 2 degrees above P-I; this year there are none.

The stations combine to give a global running average of 2.13°C above P-I, which is a Warming Rate 49 times greater than the IPCC projected temperature rise to the end of 2020.

There is an important difference in how I calculate my warming/cooling rates compared to the video makers. The IPCC Paris Accord Projection to 1.5°C in 2040 posits an annual rise from 2017 of 0.217°C per decade, not the 0.07 degrees of the previous fourteen decades. If I used the older/lower figure my rate of global WARMING this year-to-date would be 152 times greater, not 49.

Here is Week 10’s Table of Mean Temperatures above P-I (running averages).

10_TenStationsTable

Update 12 February

The Difference Five Years Make?

Not much at my Ten Stations.

Unlike the wider regions referenced in the YouTube video, five stations showed warming trends in both the 10 and 5-meteorological year runs (2010 to 1019 and 2015 to 2019).

Only one station, Mumbai, cooled over the ten years – but warmed over the last five.

Two stations, Rome and Koltsovo, clearly cooled over five years and warmed over ten, the only stations where the extra five years made a clear difference.

Koltsovo_10yrMean

Koltsovo_5yrMean

Shanghai and Cape Town clearly warmed over ten years but their five-year trendlines appear flat. Siding with the underdog, I colour them blue.

Shanghai_5yrMean

 

The Difference a Day Makes

The final week of Meteorological Year 2018/19 had eight days in it. This year “Met Weeks” run from Sunday to Saturday – and Sunday is Temperature taking day. There is clearly an opportunity now to compare 2019/20 with last year, but I hope to present findings in a simpler, clearer fashion. I created some tables and graphs today that even I can’t understand.

Given that “climate emergency” is now mainstream, I’d like to keep a finger on the pulse, using data that are (I hope) trustworthy. (New Meteorological Year resolution – I’m going to try not to make any more silly calculation mistakes. I’ve found a few after posting, though they rarely exceed tenths of a degree and so have possibly gone unnoticed.)

One tidbit from today’s labours. Durham Tees, the “coldest” of the eleven stations last year, was the “warmest” in the first week of the new year. It returned a Mean temperature of 3.14°C above (my) Pre-Industrial baseline. Last year it averaged just 0.55 degrees above P-I, so in one week my “home patch” warmed at a rate 119 times higher than projected by the IPCC. Mumbai was second at 100 times warmer.

There is no need to panic. Six of the 10 Stations were cooler and cool enough to bring the IPCC “multiplier” down to x2 for “the Globe”. Phew!

Year-End

A new meteorological year begins.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change asks a question.

GlobalWarming1.5C

It seems a bit odd that this graph offers 1850 to 1900 as “pre-industrial”. But, moving on, the Panel’s one degree goes up against my 0.85°C rise since around 1700 (when Abraham Darby began using coke in his iron furnaces).

20191201MetYrTable

I collected the last days of November data from Weather Underground this morning and, if I haven’t made any calculation errors, this is the final Table for my Ten Stations plus Durham Tees. In Week 52, Rome returned the most extreme departure from my pre-industrial base. If all stations had been 3.87°C above, we could look forward to being toast. (The IPCC reckoning would have put Rome at 4.02 degrees above P-I.)

Note the three stations that broke through the Paris Target. The IPCC suggests that it will take 23 more years (from 2017) for the globe to warm the 0.5°C to take it to the limit already passed by Rio, Koltsovo and Wellington. Assuming a steady rise, this is approximately 0.02 degrees per year, hence the IPCC 1.04 in the table (for comparative purposes, but keep in mind that an extra 0.15°C needs to be added to my 10 Station Mini-Globe’s 1.20).

I’ll keep monitoring. See what next Met Year brings.

Shanghaied

The idea that there is a “climate emergency” seems to have been shanghaied by powerful forces. Who are the powerful? The obscenely rich, who only want to get richer. After denying global warming/climate change for long enough, they are now trying to force the minds of the populace to go places they have previously been encouraged to avoid viz. to accept now that there IS a climate emergency.

Consider the green, carbon reduced election promises of the major political class in the UK. And when the BBC weighs in on the side of a CE, you can be sure that something underhand is going on.

The October just gone was the second warmest since the late 1800s. But this blogpost from Weather Underground includes a graphic from Copernic EU claiming it is the hottest on record, with temperatures o.69°C above average. I haven’t been keeping monthly averages, but a quick calculation of my Ten Station returns indicates a rise last month of 0.8° above the 10-Year Average (Met Years 2008/9 to 2017/18).

Last week, my tiny proportion of the globe was only 0.11° above the 10-Year baseline but in the mix was Buenos Aires, almost 4 degrees C warmer (4.8°C above Pre-Industrial).

Shanghai moved up a place in the Year-to-Date chart, pushing a chillier Cape Town down to seventh.

Again, the Durham Tees outlier was (relatively) the coldest of the eleven stations I’m monitoring, by week and YTD.

Week51_wkplusYTDinsets

With only a week to go, it appears that both Shanghai and the Northern (5 Station) Hemisphere will buck the trends expected at the end of August. An indication, perhaps, that the Grand Solar Minimum is biding its time before biting.

Wk51_ShanghaiNorthTREND

 

Sydney

A deep freeze in the eastern United States last week gripped Washington DC, where my station (Ronald Reagan International) plunged to 3.65°C below Pre-Industrial. Rio and Koltsovo also returned negative figures, but they were modest. Durham Tees is now the coldest station for the Year to Date (YTD) relative to P-I, of the eleven I’m monitoring, with just two weeks of the meteorological year to go.

Sydney’s cool week, at 1.07 above P-I, was probably welcomed by the inhabitants but I think blustery winds continued to make bushfire fighting difficult.

Five of my stations posted figures more than two degrees above P-I in Week 50. Mumbai and Shanghai’s contributions were cancelled out by Washington – the northern hemisphere was just 0.14°C above P-I. The south, with the unexpected assistance of Cape Town (2.92 degrees above P-I), finished the week “breaking Paris”, at 1.74 above.

Week50_wkplusYTDinsets

Sydney is not following the trend indicated at the end of August. Spring there will end up being warmer than expected. The southern hemisphere though, represented by the five stations, has yet to reach its forecast warming state. The YTD running average is, however, 1.33°C above P-I, almost half a degree warmer than the Ten-Year baseline (Met Years 2008/9 to 2017/18).

Wk50_SydneySouthTREND

The Mean Daily temperature running average for the Ten Stations is  1.2°C above P-I. I’ve mentioned a few times that my calculation of a Pre-Industrial baseline is “conservative” – on the low side. And I don’t make any attempts to figure the future. Robin at Seemorerocks has re-posted a graph by Sam Carana at Arctic News, showing a rise in global air temperature at land and ocean surface level of 1.85°C since 1750. It shows two degrees being reached by the end of 2020, and a barely survivable four degrees being passed in 2023. Three more years and there may be no hearts at all beating on this planet. This puts getting fed up about Brexit into perspective. (The first anniversary of the Yellow Vest Protests this weekend?)

20191117TempRise_SamCarana

2020 El Nino Could Start 18 Degree Temperature Rise Arctic News

 

Rome

Rome was sixth in the Temperature Table last week, at 2.27°C above Pre-Industrial. This week it is fifth and 1.99 degrees above. An indication that my ten stations Globe is a little cooler (relatively) – on the border of Goldilocks and the Paris Accord for the Year to Date. The Hemispheres have swapped places, with the South over the 2 degrees C mark and the North just 0.09 degrees above the Ten-Year average (0.94°).

Week49_wkplusYTDinsets

Rome’s Autumn warmth continues to confound its end of August trendline forecast, contributing significantly to the Northern Hemisphere bucking a similar trend. Washington DC continued to feel the cold that began just over a week ago causing the small reverse in the North’s warming trend.

Wk49_RomeNorthTREND

Yorkshire experienced some miserable floods this week, caused by a month’s rain falling in 24 hours, but nothing on the scale suffered in other parts of the world recently. You couldn’t make it up – the wettest place seems to have been Fishlake. It was New South Wales’ turn for bushfires.

Transitioning

Much of the United States experienced a rapid change in October, from “unprecedented heat” to being “seriously cold”. What appeared to be the early onset of winter stirred some preachers of the nth coming of the Grand Solar Minimum.

But the cold didn’t reach Washington DC until the end of Met Week 48, the daily mean dropping over ten degrees centigrade, from 19.9 on Thursday to 9.2°C on Friday. Until then, it had been much warmer than the 10-Year average (2008/9 to 2017/18). DC topped the Ten Station chart for the week, at 3.95°C above my Pre-Industrial baseline. Two other northern hemisphere stations were above the dreaded two degrees, and so were three southern hemisphere stations.

A couple of chilly links, to End of the American Dream and Weather Underground, should be read in the context of a generally toasty North last week, and a South that just crept over the “Paris Accord” target, (as represented by my 5 chosen stations and comparing the running 7-day average with my Pre-industrial baseline).

Durham Tees last week was much colder than Pre-Industrial – and all the Ten Stations.

Week48_wkplusYTDinsets

Wellington is this week’s featured station. Promised a cold Spring a while back, it was 7th in the Week 48 Table, at 0.43°C above P-I (0.42 below the Ten-Year Average). This amount of coolness has been enough to drop the running average for the year to 1.49°C. Only three of the Ten are now “above Paris” – Rio de Janeiro (1.8), Koltsovo (1.63) and Washington DC (1.61°C).

Wellington is following the trendline more closely than any of the other nine stations.

Wk48_WellingtonSouthTREND