Cold Snaps

Ice Age Farmer and Adapt 2030 have reported on the unseasonal cold weather afflicting parts of the globe recently. The last couple of weeks here on the Yorkshire Coast have been chilly.

A couple of months ago my “local” weather stations, hosted by Weather Underground, shut down to all intents and purposes. One stopped reporting altogether and the other put out data that seemed unreliable. The nearest station I could find with data going back to 2008, and likely to operate for years to come, is Durham Tees Airport.  It is 50 straight-line miles away and inland, so it isn’t a satisfactory proxy for Filey. It will have to do.

Durham Tees data do show very clearly the influence of the recent cold spell on Mean Daily temperatures.

The Durham Tees average temperature for Week 22 (27 April to 3 May) was 0.55℃ BELOW the Pre-Industrial Baseline. Week 23 wasn’t remotely “brutal” but was nonetheless 6.7℃ BELOW Pre-Industrial. The weekly running average from the beginning of the meteorological year dropped from 1.21℃ above Pre-Industrial to 0.87℃ in 7 days.

The global mean temperature, as represented by my 10 chosen weather stations rose slightly from 1.22 to 1.25℃ above Pre-Industrial in the same period.

This is how the year-to-date looks for the Globe and Durham Tees in a simple line graph.

Durham&Globe_MetYrto23

This begins to put Europe’s record spring cold (and May snows) into context.

Note that five of the 23 weeks in Durham exceeded the Paris Accord target.

I don’t think anyone can say for sure which way things are going to trend in the next year or two. Either way may seriously impact on food supply but, as far as the “argument” goes, it doesn’t seem unreasonable now to call both global warming and the grand solar minimum “hoaxes”, so that we might concentrate our minds on man-made evils that have, perhaps, solutions that are more readily achievable.

Here is the Week 23 “League Table” for the 10 Weather Stations.

Wk23_10StnTable

The YTD (year-to-date) column gives the daily mean running average above/below Pre-Industrial (℃) for each station on 10 May 2019.

Warming

Five months into this meteorological year, the ten Weather Stations I’ve chosen to stand as a proxy for Global Mean Temperatures are showing a rise of 0.33°C above the 2008/9 to 2017/18 average. (Add 0.85°C to get my notional “above Pre-Industrial” figure.)

DecAprMeanCF10yr

April was much cooler than March in the Northern Hemisphere but a little warmer in the south. You don’t really need a graph to visualise the sharp rise in both hemispheres from December to January and the rather gentle peaks and troughs since then.

I’m still checking my data tables for errors but the way I’ve set them up makes it quick and easy to add up the number of days that are as warm or warmer than the day before. This is more a fun thing to do and the results shouldn’t be taken seriously.

DecApr_10StationsWarmerDays

The northern hemisphere dip of 0.06°C from March to April has no effect on this “warmer days” lark. For now, though, it does look as if the Grand Solar Minimum is a thing of the future. Once it begins to bite, a graph like this will surely indicate that it’s downhill all the way, for who knows how long.

Cool Runnings

In March, the warmest of my five Northern Hemisphere weather stations, Chhatrapati Shivaji International (Mumbai), recorded an average mean daily temperature of 27.71°C. The coldest station, Koltsovo, returned minus 1.88°C.

You may recall that I calculated a 10 Year Daily Average temperature for all ten weather stations using Weather Underground data for meteorological years 2008/9 to 2017/18. These daily figures can be readily aggregated to give weekly, monthly and seasonal averages, and finally annual results.

After some consideration, I decided that global temperature had risen by 0.85°C since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution – when mankind began emitting way more “greenhouse gases” into the air than before. It doesn’t really matter when industrial activity took off. I think I pinned it to 1709 or thereabouts. Neither is the 0.85°C figure critical. I recently heard a scientist acknowledge a rise of 1.0°C since 1880 – and he was from the school of carbon dioxide being “plant food”, playing no part whatsoever in the temperature rise. (See Jeff Masters for a different view of CO2.)

2019MARCHcf10yrWhatever, Mumbai last month recorded the greatest amount of cooling when compared to its 10 Year Average. And cold Koltsovo warmed the most. Go figure.

Now, please consider the Paris Agreement (or Accord) and add 0.85 degrees to the table figures. Quite by chance, the Northern Hemisphere is bang on the 1.5°C “red line” we should strive not to cross. And Koltsovo is beyond twice as hot as the 2°C figure that signifies the beginning of the end for humanity. It is fortunate that Koltsovo isn’t the globe.

For the following histogram, I have ordered the ten stations, hemispheres and globe so that March progresses from cool to warm when compared with the Pre-Industrial Baseline.

 

2019MARCHcfP-I

So, what has happened to Koltsovo since the beginning of this meteorological year? At the end of winter, the average daily MEAN temperature was 2.2°C above Pre-Industrial. March warmth has pushed the Koltsovo running average up to 2.75°C (2.34°C warmer than at the end of December) and nudged the Northern Hemisphere up from just 0.1°C warming since December 31st to 0.2 degrees. (Mumbai, Rome, Shanghai and Washington all conspired to bring down the North’s fever.)

Mainly thanks to a hot January in Rio, Sydney and Wellington, the Southern Hemisphere is currently at 0.32°C above Pre-Industrial and the Globe at +0.26 degrees.

There is nothing to fear. This meteorological year had a one in two chance of being warmer than the 10 Year Average. Four months in, it is warmer. By the end of November, it could well be cooler.

Anomalous warmth at the beginning of the met year in several of the 10 stations has guaranteed that both hemispheres are now showing a cooling trend. It is very small, only minus 0.01°C every two or three weeks (in the last two months or so).

There are, however, some worryingly hot spots on the planet – India (though not Mumbai) and the Arctic.

This is today’s picture of Arctic temperature anomalies from Climate Reanalyzer. Over the next ten days, the excess heat is forecast to drop from +6.8°C to +3.4°C.

April3_ArcticAnomaly_CR_grab

 

Brexit

Good luck to Ukraine if they vote in a Comedian President. The UK has over 600 jokers in Parliament, all risible and none funny. The Prime Minister of the regime and the “Leader” of the main opposition party are too daft to laugh at. I can’t say it better than Jeff Taylor and Carl Benjamin.

 

Still Getting Warmer

In the first two months of this meteorological year at my ten chosen weather stations, there were six instances of cooler temperatures and 14 warmer.

The five Northern Hemisphere Stations were, overall, 1.01°C warmer than the Ten Year Average (2008/9 to 20017/18).

The five Southern Hemisphere Stations were 1.18°C warmer.

“The literature” about present temperatures suggests varying amounts of global warmth above a notional Pre-Industrial Baseline. Initially, I was going to go for a low estimate (0.6°C) but decided on the middling 0.85°C instead.  NASA is currently suggesting the world has warmed 0.9°C since 1880 so I am being conservative.

So, I have set my Pre-industrial Baseline at 0.85°C above the TenYear Average. The figure is calculated daily for graphing purposes. I have added 1.5°C to give the Paris Accord limit we should attempt to stay below if we are to avoid even more extreme weather events than those recently experienced.

At the 10 Weather Stations in the last two months, the Average Daily Temperatures are 0.25°C above the 10 Year running average figure, leaving us just 0.4°C “to play with” before the Paris Accord limit is passed.

There is no way of telling how representative my chosen Weather Stations are, among the thousands reporting to Weather Underground. It doesn’t seem to matter though. Over the next year or two, the trend to either “runaway greenhouse” or Grand Solar Minimum chill must, surely, become apparent.

Right now the record cold temperatures in the US Midwest are causing a stir. The extreme warming that is forecast to soon follow there will keep tongues wagging. In the southern hemisphere, Australia’s heatwaves are crossing the Tasman and washing over New Zealand.

The warmest of my 10 Stations was Koltsovo, last month, registering 3.65°C above Pre-Industrial. If the Siberian experience is replicated everywhere for a whole year we are all toast.

NorthHemDecJan

SouthernHemDecJan

GlobalDecJan