Rome

Rome was sixth in the Temperature Table last week, at 2.27°C above Pre-Industrial. This week it is fifth and 1.99 degrees above. An indication that my ten stations Globe is a little cooler (relatively) – on the border of Goldilocks and the Paris Accord for the Year to Date. The Hemispheres have swapped places, with the South over the 2 degrees C mark and the North just 0.09 degrees above the Ten-Year average (0.94°).

Week49_wkplusYTDinsets

Rome’s Autumn warmth continues to confound its end of August trendline forecast, contributing significantly to the Northern Hemisphere bucking a similar trend. Washington DC continued to feel the cold that began just over a week ago causing the small reverse in the North’s warming trend.

Wk49_RomeNorthTREND

Yorkshire experienced some miserable floods this week, caused by a month’s rain falling in 24 hours, but nothing on the scale suffered in other parts of the world recently. You couldn’t make it up – the wettest place seems to have been Fishlake. It was New South Wales’ turn for bushfires.

Transitioning

Much of the United States experienced a rapid change in October, from “unprecedented heat” to being “seriously cold”. What appeared to be the early onset of winter stirred some preachers of the nth coming of the Grand Solar Minimum.

But the cold didn’t reach Washington DC until the end of Met Week 48, the daily mean dropping over ten degrees centigrade, from 19.9 on Thursday to 9.2°C on Friday. Until then, it had been much warmer than the 10-Year average (2008/9 to 2017/18). DC topped the Ten Station chart for the week, at 3.95°C above my Pre-Industrial baseline. Two other northern hemisphere stations were above the dreaded two degrees, and so were three southern hemisphere stations.

A couple of chilly links, to End of the American Dream and Weather Underground, should be read in the context of a generally toasty North last week, and a South that just crept over the “Paris Accord” target, (as represented by my 5 chosen stations and comparing the running 7-day average with my Pre-industrial baseline).

Durham Tees last week was much colder than Pre-Industrial – and all the Ten Stations.

Week48_wkplusYTDinsets

Wellington is this week’s featured station. Promised a cold Spring a while back, it was 7th in the Week 48 Table, at 0.43°C above P-I (0.42 below the Ten-Year Average). This amount of coolness has been enough to drop the running average for the year to 1.49°C. Only three of the Ten are now “above Paris” – Rio de Janeiro (1.8), Koltsovo (1.63) and Washington DC (1.61°C).

Wellington is following the trendline more closely than any of the other nine stations.

Wk48_WellingtonSouthTREND

A Bit Cooler

Except in Buenos Aires. Cape Town propped up the Table in Week 47 with its seven-day Mean of 1.25°C below my Pre-Industrial baseline. The Argentine capital was the fourth “warmest” of my ten stations. It was comfortably in the Goldilocks Zone at 1.19°C above P-I.

Mumbai is under the spotlight this week, and it remains the coolest of the stations for the Year to Date. Another way of saying “0.59°C above P-I” is “it is currently running 0.26°C cooler than the 10 Year Baseline (Met Year 2008/9 to 2017/18)”.

Rome is the other station cooler than the 10 Year base (0.66°C above P-I), but it was the “warmest” station in Week 47 at 3.52°C above P-I. (Rome’s Weekly Mean was 19.08°C, compared to Mumbai’s 27.08 degrees.)

Week47_wkplusYTDinsets

Another chilly week in North-East England probably ensures that Durham Tees will join Rome and Mumbai as the only stations below the 10-Year base five weeks from now.

Although Mumbai will almost certainly end this meteorological year as the station that warmed the least, the trendline from the end of August indicated its temperature would rise by 0.25°C in the last 13 weeks. From a negative figure in the second of these weeks, Mumbai did begin a warming trend – until Week 47 chill knocked it back By contrast the Northern Hemisphere, expected to get cooler in Autumn relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline, has been above the end of August’s running average for the last three weeks.

Wk47_MumbaiNorthTREND

The changing climate is a factor in the California “wildfires” that have caused so much concern this past week. A short video by Verge Science explains the human dimension to what has been “natural” for millennia.

Top of the League

Rio de Janeiro has been the warmest of my Ten Stations for all but two of the last 22 weeks. Its mean daily temperature above Pre-Industrial (my version) has dipped below the dreaded 2 degrees C and seems unlikely to rise again this meteorological year. Rio and the southern hemisphere are running cooler than the trendlines indicated at the end of August.

Wk46_RioSouthTREND

Below are a couple of graphs that present the Week 46 Mean Temperature in a different way. I have ranked the table from highest to the lowest temperature and added Durham Tees to the Ten Stations to put north-east England into what passes for a global context. I’ve given the ten stations “hemisphere colours” and Durham Tees the indicator colour for the goldilocks zone – not too hot and not too cold (between zero and 1.49°C above Pre-Industrial). You can clearly see the four stations “over the limit” in Week 46. (Mumbai is the week’s elephant in the room.)

Week46_wkplusYTDinsets

Don’t be too complacent that the running average is below two degrees for all my stations as we near the end of the year. Robin at Seemorerocks offers an article by Anton Troianovski from The Independent about the melting permafrost in Siberia. Koltsovo is a long way from Siberia but is catching some of the heat. Climate Reanalyzer shows much of the Arctic Ocean to be over 4°C above average for much of the coming week, though mainland Siberia appears to be cooler.

Should one of my ten stations rise above two degrees next week, I think it will be Sydney. If I had a house, I’d put it on Buenos Aires being coolest. Again.

More Errant Forecasts

The southern hemisphere was warmer than I expected last week with Buenos Aires and Rio taking two of the top three places in the Table. This took the gloss off correctly nominating Koltsovo for Week 45 top spot.

45_FullTable

Roughly in the centre of the Russian Federation, Koltsovo might be expected to descend rapidly into sub-zero winter. Last week seemed to be the beginning – after the last burst (perhaps) of heat.

wk45_KoltsovoCombo

The first-day figure of almost ten degrees centigrade above P-I is the highest I can recall being recorded in my ten stations this year. A fall from a daily mean of 13.4°C on Saturday to 1.8 the following Friday is not something I’d care to experience. Having said that, Durham Tees was colder every day of Week 45 than Koltsovo’s warmest day. (Range 10.7°C on Wednesday to 12.2 on Friday.)

Wk45_KoltsovoNorthTREND

A warm Koltsovo has been the main reason for the northern hemisphere reversing the trendline forecast of cooling to the end of the meteorological year.

A quick look at the GFS model for this week points to Koltsovo turning warm again for several days. Three southern hemisphere stations might make it into the top four (Cape Town, Rio and Wellington. I’m putting pretend money on Washington and Buenos Aires propping up the Table at the end of Week 46.

Typhoon Hagibis was the week’s most obvious villain but the Arctic is a continuing cause for concern. For the next ten days, GFS indicates it will run between two and three degrees centigrade above what used to be considered “normal”. For weird weather-with-consequences, keep your eye on California. Let Jane Tande be your guide.

 

Blame Game

I lost my wager on the Hot Three weather Stations in Week 44. Sydney trailed in sixth and an outsider came up fast on the rails to pip Koltsovo for third place. The favourite, Washington DC, romped home but one out of three is poor. I blame my analysis of the GFS Model forecasts on Climate Reanalyzer rather than the model itself. I’ll try to do better this week.

44_FullTable

The aforementioned outsider was Cape Town, which is under the spotlight this week. For the first 36 weeks of the meteorological year, it has been colder than the station’s Ten-Year running average. It is, however, one of three southern hemisphere stations with a warming trendline to the end of November.

wk44_CapeTowncombo

If Cape Town reaches the forecast 1.2°C that will be 0.35°C warmer than the Ten-Year average. After five weeks of the southern spring, it is 0.25°C warmer.

44_CapeTowncf10yr

 

Cape Town is ahead of schedule and the rise seems steady, but the southern hemisphere continues to run cold. (An earlier error in the South’s figures has been corrected.)

44_CapeTownSouthTREND

I don’t think the northern hemisphere will be as warm this week as last and the south will continue to be relatively cool. Australians have been warned of an imminent “scorcher” lasting several months but South America, South Africa and New Zealand may not be similarly cursed.

Week 45 warmest of the Ten – all northern hemisphere: Koltsovo, Shanghai, Washington DC.

 

Hot Washington

Washington DC was not the warmest of the Ten Stations last week. It was beaten by Cape Town.

43_FullTable

The wintry blast experienced by Koltsovo saw that station fall from second to fourth in “the League”, with Wellington and Washington moving up to second and third respectively. Rio had a chilly week, the Year to Date Mean Temperature falling 0.06ºC to 1.8 degrees above Pre-Industrial. The GFS model’s forecast of warmth in Argentina came good, with Buenos Aires high in the week’s table at 2.65ºC above P-I.

Durham Tees (my “local” station) was also a bit toasty in Week 43.

wk43_WashingtoDCcombo

The Washington trendline is almost flat, falling slightly to an indicated year-end temperature of 1.58ºC above Pre-Industrial – in orange “above Paris” territory. To meet this forecast, the temperature must rise 0.08 degrees from the end of August figure. Infinitesimal, which is one reason I’m experimenting with the percentage graphs.

Wk43_WashDCnorthTREND

 

Four Northern Hemisphere stations were in the bottom half of the Week 43 Table and they cancelled out the Washington warmth. (Mumbai is the only one of these four expected to be warmer at the end of the Met Year than now.)

Impressed by the GFS model’s Buenos Aires prediction last week, I’ve looked at the coming seven days for the Ten Stations. It is only a rough assessment but I’m going to wager that Koltsovo, Washington and Sydney will occupy the top three positions in the Week 44 Table.

All but one of the storms mentioned last week seem to have weakened without causing too much misery anywhere. The Earth Wind Map is currently showing a festering boil mid-way between Africa and the Americas.

20190929_EarthWindMap

Lorenzo – “the Atlantic’s second Cat 5 storm of the year, the strongest hurricane ever observed so far east in the Atlantic, and one of the northernmost Cat 5s on record.” Weather Underground.