Shanghai

Five of the ten weather stations were over 2ºC warmer than my Pre-Industrial Baseline last week. Shanghai’s 2.84 degrees was, however, no match for Cape Town and they swapped places in the “League Table”. Shanghai fell to 7th.

41_FullTable

The three particularly warm northern stations pushed the hemisphere into the “orange zone” for Week 41, a marked change after last week’s chill. A couple of weeks ago I mentioned the cold spring expected in New Zealand. Across the Tasman, Australia has been promised higher than normal temperatures for the season. Last week, Sydney and Wellington vied for chilliness, with the New Zealand capital winning by a smidgen.

wk41_ShanghaiCombo

Our week in north-east England has been the polar-opposite to Shanghai – but it is all relative. The clear warming trend in Durham Tees from Wednesday to Fri continued and gave us a pleasant, sunny weekend.

The Bahamas expected more misery from tropical storm Humberto but has been reprieved. Humberto may strengthen to hurricane status, but a sharp turn northeast is predicted to take it away from the United States.

Winter in New South Wales and Queensland has been described as “disastrous”, but Australians are being prepared by their media for possible “apocalyptic weather” if what is happening in the Antarctic migrates northwards. The Arctic continues to edge towards its state change.

Sydney Bucks the Trend

40_FullTable

Sydney’s warm week raised its Mean Daily Temperature running average – only by 0.3ºC but nonetheless confounding the 9-month trendline.

wk40_SydneyCombo

Northern England turned chilly, though not as much as Koltsovo, Shanghai and Buenos Aires. Without Sydney’s contribution of warmth, the southern hemisphere would have equalled the north’s cooling. The globe, as represented by the Ten Stations, saw its running average drop 0.3ºC in Week 40. If Sydney returns to its cooling trend and falls to a yearly average of 1.19º above (my) Pre-Industrial baseline at the end of November, that will still represent a 0.34ºC rise above the Ten Year (2009 to 2018) average.

Dorian

The monster hurricane caused terrible devastation in the Bahamas and, if Puerto Rico’s experience is anything to go by, the people in the worst affected islands will wait a long time for the assistance they need to rebuild communities.

Questions are being asked about the odd behaviour of the storm. Georgia and the Carolinas received a battering – but it could have been worse. And maybe it need not have been as bad as it was for Bahamians.

Dorian is over the Gulf of St Lawrence as I write, and the west coast of Ireland and the Scottish Isles may feel his breath on Tuesday when computer models are showing the storm centre tracking over Iceland.

The Heatwave

This part of the UK was relatively warmer last week than any of my Ten Weather Stations. (Relative, that is, to the 2009 to 2018 average, and by extension to my version of a Pre-Industrial baseline.)

39_FullTable

With the arrival of meteorological Autumn in the northern hemisphere I’ve changed the main chart in the weekly look at one of the Ten Stations (and Durham Tees). Rather than considering the last ten weeks, I’m offering the running average of the Mean Daily Temperature above Pre-Industrial from January to the latest completed month, with a Trendline to the end of the Met Year. I’m noting the end-of-year temperature expected from the trend and wonder how much different the actual figure will be, for each of the stations, the hemispheres and the globe (as represented by the Ten).

(I have deliberately excluded December from this series because at several stations the Met Year began with some extreme temperatures, which made trend forecasts appear unrealisable. I don’t put any “faith” in the forecasts themselves but I’m hoping the actual figures in the next three months might indicate either continuing warming or solar minimum cooling setting in. I still haven’t found a reliable canary.)

wks30to39_Rome

Remember, my weeks run from Saturday to Friday, so it was Monday in Rome that was relatively chilly. The actual high that day was 84ºF, 28.9ºC and the Mean 75ºF, 23.9ºC. The Met Year running Mean was 0.96ºC colder than the Ten-Year running average for that day, hence the 0.11ºC below Pre-Industrial figure.

Dorian is the Monster of the Week, right now up to a Cat 5 and battering the Bahamas. Models are showing a turn to the north tomorrow and Tuesday, perhaps reprieving Florida. The Carolinas could bear the brunt but there seems to be a possibility of the hurricane losing strength as it heads north-east over the sea. Fingers crossed.

Robin Westenra has posted that New Zealand is expected to have a cold start to its spring. I trust my Wellington Airport temperatures will reflect the forecast – if it proves to be correct.

The World Upside Down

In the southern hemisphere, four of my five weather stations caught chills in Week 38, and extreme warmth in Koltsovo and Washington helped to push the north over 2 degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial. But the hemispheres cancelled each other out – the running average global Mean Temperature remains the same as last week at 1.22ºC above pre-industrial.

38_FullTable

Wellington is the second “warmest” station in the southern hemisphere, peaking at 2.05 ºC above pre-industrial in January, but cooling overall, just, since then. Perhaps the upturn over the last three months will continue.

Wellington_DecToJul

The last five weeks in Wellington suggest this is unlikely.

wks29to38_Wellington

Twelve thousand miles separate Wellington from Durham Tees but, as far as temperature goes, their experience in Week 38 was similar. The “swing” was just a bit more extreme in Wellington.

The week, globally, was most notable for wildfires. The fires in Amazonia received the most attention in the lamestream media. The Indonesian and Siberian fires have barely been acknowledged in the UK and those in Angola and the Congo seem to have been ignored completely. Go here to see the present situation world-wide. There seems to be a connection between the hottest year on record and the number of wildfires – though human greed plays a significant role in the devastation. And in the suffering of all creatures great and small.

Mumbai Warming

The Weather Station at Chhatrapati Shivaji International, Mumbai, returns the highest mean daily temperatures of my Northern Hemisphere Five. It is, however, bottom of the Ten Station Table for Year-to-Date Mean Temperature above my Pre-Industrial Baseline.

37_NorthYTDetc

From Week 8 through to 27 Mumbai was running a temperature below Pre-Industrial so its current state represents significant warming. Here are the Year-to-Date temperatures (°C) at the end of each month.

Mumbai_DecToJul

Some observers are already certain that 2019 is going to be the Earth’s hottest year on record. India has experienced periods of extreme heat this year, and water shortages are a great concern in parts of the sub-continent, but Mumbai is clearly not going to be contributing much to a global temperature record if it happens. However, seven of the last ten weeks have registered average Mean Temperatures above the Paris Accord ”target” of 1.5°C.

wks28to37_Mumbai

Here’s the Week 37 Table. Rome was toasty but, as indicated above, a bit chilly in the north-east of England.

37_FullTable

Cool Rio

Before the temperature data stopped flowing out of Weather Underground, I thought my Stations had settled into a Top Ten that wouldn’t change. But in Week 33, after normal service resumed, there were some rather extreme figures which returned Koltsovo to Number 1, Buenos Aires moved up to 6th (after propping up the table for the first five weeks of the meteorological year), and Mumbai pushed Rome into tenth place. The bottom two swapped places the following week and the top two the week after. The latest Table looks like this –

36_Ranking

You will notice immediately that all ten stations now have a running average Mean Daily Temperature below the feared 2°C.

Positions may change again but I’m going to do Sunday posts for the rest of the year that will feature just one of the ten stations, starting with the “warmest”, then the “coldest” in the northern hemisphere, and so on.

After the heatwaves, things have cooled noticeably. The Ten returned a temperature of only 0.26°C above Pre-Industrial last week. (My weeks, by the way, run from Saturday to Friday.)

36_FullTable

You will see from this full Table, with added DurhamTees data, that my nearest reliable local station broke through the two-degree barrier – but for the year-to-date is nonetheless running 0.47°C cooler than the “Ten Station Globe”.

Here is the first of the 10-week cycle set of graphs.

wks27to36_Rio

The ten-week histogram shows Rio’s almost 3.5°C range in average Mean Temperature above Pre-Industrial, and there’s no need for an added trendline to indicate the cooling. The small Rio graph for last week does, however, indicate how much it warmed from the Sunday low point. It didn’t feel particularly warm on the Yorkshire Coast last week but the figures suggest otherwise.

Recent Category 6 posts on Weather Underground have included –

Baked Alaska: State Endures Warmest Month on Record

U.S. Racks Up Wettest Calendar Year to Date

New Models Point to More Global Warming Than Expected

European Scientists: July 2019 Hottest Month on Record

A website with different fish to fry has an elderly but useful post about Eddy. Either way, we have been warned.

Heat

A few weeks ago we experienced the “greatest June heatwave in European history”. NOAA and NASA agreed that it was the warmest June since record-keeping began. Another European heatwave kicked off in the UK today. There is a small chance that 2019 will be the warmest year since 1880. (See Dr Jeff Masters July 18 post on Weather Underground.)

After 24 days without data, I was able to resume the monitoring of my Ten Weather Stations and Durham Tees today. The service resumed on the 9th of July. I have filled empty days with averages for three eight-day periods that I hope won’t compromise the month, season and year running averages. I’m sure all stations have the actual data and maybe Weather Underground will provide the missing figures eventually.

The temperature data stream dried up on 15 June, the end of Week 28 (Meteorological Year) and began flowing again midway through Week 32. Week 33 is the first “good” week after the resumption. Here is a Table showing what has happened at my Stations in the downtime. I don’t feel the figures are significantly compromised because they represent the running average of the Mean Daily Temperature, calculated weekly, from the beginning of December 2018.

MissingWeeks

Remember, these are Mean Temperatures above a Pre-Industrial Baseline calculated by deducting 0.85°C from the 10 Year Daily Average (2008/9 to 2017/18) for each Station. The Ten Stations in the Table have been ranked from warmest above P-I to coolest in Week 28. The main takeaway from this Table is that the “warmest” Stations are (mostly) cooling, and the “coolest” are currently warming.