Lies and Statistics

It is a while since I updated the running average temperatures of my Ten Weather Stations. There have been countless extreme weather events recently. The usual suspects of heat, fire, flood and ice melt joined by the occasional surprise package, like summer snowfalls in China. But none have done much to alter the trends in my token scraps of the planet.

The five representatives of the northern hemisphere have continued to cool. The southern five have been much cooler this meteorological year than last, but over the last ten weeks their temperatures have started to rise, and may continue to do so until November.

I have simplified the graphs by not naming the 5 stations but in order of warmth in Week 27 (with mean temperatures in degrees Centigrade above the Pre-Industrial baseline) they are Koltsovo (5.52), Shanghai (2.87), Rome (2.40), Mumbai (2.16) and Washington DC (1.39). They combine to trend steadily downwards but are still well above the IPCC’s 2040 Paris Accord projected target.

Wellington is warmest of the southern 5 (1.11), followed by Buenos Aires (0.97), Sydney (0.82), Cape Town (0.3) and Rio de Janeiro (-0.18). Together they are over 0.2°C cooler than the global average in 2017, as determined by the IPCC.

I don’t know why the running average temperature is so different in the two hemispheres this year – and have not seen any explanations online while checking if climate change is still a hoax or not. My Ten Station Globe’s recent experience looks like this:-

The Ten Stations are currently warming at a rate 25 times greater than hoped for by the IPCC. (At the end of this year the temperature above Pre-Industrial is projected to be 1.06°C. Adding 25 “IPCC units” to this gives the 1.61 degrees indicated in the graph above. One unit is the projected annual global average rise of 0.0217°C.)

That Other Hoax

The “inventor” of the PCR Test says it should not be used to detect COVID 19 in the human animal (or paw paw or goat). It seems to be widely accepted that 80% of the pointless tests give “false positives”. So the four members of the family in New Zealand that have triggered the lockdown of Auckland may not have the infamous disease at all. Across the Tasman, Kim Jong Dan is doing terrible things to the population of Victoria. Police have been videoed strangling a young woman and body-slamming her to the payment – for not wearing a face covering.

So, two of the countries least affected by the novel flu are rapidly turning into the most tyrannical. New Zealand is on course to be under martial law by the beginning of October.

Yesterday I chose ten countries to “follow”, just to see if the next lockdown of the UK could be justified by “the figures”. What figures? Number of cases cannot be trusted. Number of COVID 19 deaths reported cannot be trusted. (How many people who haven’t had a test have been sent letters informing them that they are Covid positive?) In truth, there are no reliable data for the disease anywhere.

Although they may have been inflated in various underhand ways, I am running with the reported COVID deaths. Worldometers calculate deaths per million population for every country. It is easy to spot the countries that have been “hit hard”.

I thought I’d calculate the chances of dying from (or with) COVID 19 by simply dividing the number of deaths by the country’s population. Yesterday my Number One country, against which the other nine would be measured, was Australia. Hearing about about the poor Kiwis facing outright tyranny this morning made me add New Zealand to the list. I’m not quite organized yet so the Table below should be treated with caution. It seems to be heading in the right direction – in that the chance of dying from (with) COVID in rank order is the same as Worldometers Deaths per Million list. (The two sets of figures have a family resemblance.)

Note: Not all the populations are the latest “live” figures. The Worldometer “perMil” figures were accessed early this afternoon. I hope to take the temperature of the 11 countries at a set hour each day but the immediate takeaway is that I am at least 150 times more likely to die of/with COVID in the UK than the average New Zealander. Of course, being over 70 I have the regime’s cross-hairs on my heart or forehead. Curious how a country where the chances are 0.0005% of being killed by/with COVID can become the most fascistic nation on earth  in a heartbeat.

UK Column News features lies and statistics today. Support Billy TK.

Beach 112 · Muston Sands

More Ups and Downs

The UK was unusually warm last week. Half a million of the fed-up locked down were reported to have crowded Bournemouth’s beaches. It was a little cooler in the north-east and at Durham Tees Airport (my “local” weather station) the week ended only 0.08 degrees Centigrade warmer than the week before. I was surprised the differential wasn’t greater, and astonished that Durham Tees, the outsider, beat every one of “the Ten” in the warmth stakes last week.

Given the attention Siberia and the Arctic have been receiving for extraordinary heat, you may wonder at Koltsovo’s 0.36°C drop from its Week 29 Mean. Koltsovo is east of the Urals and considered by some authorities to be part of Russia’s Sibir. Tell that to the folk in Yekaterinburg, twenty minutes by car from Koltsovo Airport. Whatever, while Siberia burned last week, the Urals almost froze. I exaggerate. Koltsovo’s mean temperature for the week was 11.9°C (53.4°F) and Durham Tees 19.2°C (a devilish 66.6°F).

For the Year to Date, the 5 northern stations dropped to 2.63°C above Pre-Industrial by the end of last week. The southern stations continued the gentle warming trend of the last five weeks to reach 0.73°C above P-I. The Ten Station Globe is currently running at 1.68 degrees above P-I, warmer than is comfortable for the Paris Accord people. The Ten Stations warming rate had risen to 52 IPCC units by Week 16 but it has steadily reduced to just 28 units in Week 30. (One unit is the amount the Earth is projected to warm each year by the International Panel on Climate Change, from 2017 to 2040.)

Found Object 36 · Wellie

Filey Sands

North-South Divide 2

The meteorological year is 21 weeks old. Enough time for a comparison to be made with last year’s temperature data from my Ten Stations.

Five stations in each hemisphere is a tiny sample of the total number reporting, so they are in no way representative of the whole world’s temperature experience. They do, however, combine to tell a story that can question the official climate change narrative.

The northern hemisphere is considerably warmer than it should be relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline. At the end of November 2019, the 5 Stations averaged 1.24°C above P-I. The chart below shows the marked difference this year.

Wk21_NorthIPCCunits

The relative warmth peaked in Week 16 at 127.46 IPCC units. This is massive when you consider the IPCC has projected a single unit rise annually until 2040 sees the Paris Accord’s 1.5°C above P-I reached – if humans fail to tackle the “climate emergency” successfully.

127.46 IPCC units equate to 3.84°C above P-I. The steep decline in five weeks is as welcome as it is surprising, given that reduced industrial activity and transport was expected by some to raise land surface temperatures.

The picture in the southern hemisphere is very different.

Wk21_SouthIPCCunits

Ending last year within a smidgen of 1.5°C above P-I, the south has effectively cooled by almost a degree. It would require a drop of another 23 IPCC units to make the southern hemisphere fall below the Pre-Industrial Baseline, but Rio de Janeiro has done that and Cape Town is currently just 0.04°C above P-I.

Despite the recent relative temperature decline in the north and the seeming stasis in the south the linear trends to the end of the year are up in the north and down in the south, suggesting the North-South divide will be maintained.

Wk21_GlobeIPCCunits

 

From the beginning of Week 6 to the middle of Week 18 the 10 Station “mini Globe” had maintained a temperature over 2°C above P-I. The trend from now to the end of the year is upwards, though it is possible that the cold times are coming.

Flower 15 · Mother-dee

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

My breakfast reading is currently Man and the Natural World (Keith Thomas) and discovering that Red Campion (Silene dioica­) has this disturbing vernacular name sent me along Church Walk this morning. Of little use as a food or medicine, this flower was thought, once upon a time, to kill the parents of any child who picked it. “Popular knowledge” in the Middle Ages bestowed a lot of other names upon it, some of them shared with other quite different flowers. Five are “Robin” names and half an hour after taking this photo I met a fine specimen of Erithacus rubecula in Martin’s Ravine.

Bird 80 · Robin

28_20200428Robin2_6m

Ten minutes later I reached the Glen Gardens cliff top and was thrilled to hear a ‘northern nightingale’, one of several birds once familiarly called Peggy. (The others are whitethroat, garden warbler, willow warbler and chiffchaff.) The lovely song was coming from a distant tree, the sea beyond.

Bird 81 · Blackcap

28_20200428Blackcap1_6m

Linneans chose to call “her” Sylvia atricapilla.

Fifteen more minutes and I was back in prison.

 

North-South Divide

It may be lockdown lethargy, or the brain fog many are suffering whilst sheltering in place – I’ve lost my impetus where genealogy and family history are concerned. But I can still juggle happily with numbers for hours on end. Disappointed with the appearance of a graph showing temperature differences this year in the two hemispheres (relative to the Pre-industrial baseline), I sought a whole measure smaller than a degree centigrade or Fahrenheit and found one. I have called it an “IPCC unit”.

The International Panel on Climate Change issued a paper at the time of the Paris Accord that declared the global average temperature had risen one-degree centigrade above Pre-Industrial by 2017. It suggested a further half a degree rise by 2040 – to the 1.5°C limit that should be avoided at all costs.

Assuming an unwavering linear rise, we are looking at a modest-seeming 0.0217°C per annum. (I reckon that to be 0.0391 degrees in Fahrenheit money.)

Creating the graph using IPCC units gives this picture of weekly temperature relative to Pre-Industrial, reported by my Ten Stations over the last thirteen weeks.

NorthSouthDivide_Wks8to20

I have kept it as simple as possible to make it clear that the northern stations are responsible for all the above-average global warming in this time period and the southern stations for all but a tiny bit of the cooling.

Koltsovo has warmed at over 250 times the rate projected by the IPCC. Rio de Janeiro is the “coolest” of the stations.

Koltsovo has cooled by about 55 IPCC units over the thirteen weeks. That’s about 1.2°C, down from 7.8°C above Pre-Industrial to 6.6 degrees. (Global warming isn’t a hoax in Russia.)

Rio’s average weekly mean temperature over this period was 25.6°C but it cooled about 12 IPCC units, or 0.25°C,  from 0.19 to 0.44 degrees BELOW Pre-Industrial.

Shanghai is the northern station that is closely tracking the hemisphere average.

The Ten Station Globe has dropped from 2.09°C above Pre-Industrial in Week 8 to  1.89 degrees in week 20. It is, however, a long drop to a rise of only a single IPCC unit by the end of the meteorological year.

Metal 11 · Roundabout

25_20170425SnowRoundabout1_1m

 

Aerosols Bite the Dust

My Ten Weather Stations are giving the Aerosol Masking Effect a hard time. The hypothesis proposes that the decline in activity of 3 billion formerly industrious humans will cause pollution to fall from the skies, clearing the way for King Sol to raise the global temperature. (By as much as one-degree celsius perhaps.)

Wk19_MeanIncDecr_10

The Ten Station Globe was 0.065°C cooler last week than the week before and this week sees a further drop. Only Rome and Wellington has provided some counterbalancing warmth. That’s a fall of 0.233°C in the last three weeks. I’ve seen a comment online that the Aerosol Masking Effect is an “irrelevant and exotic idea”. The McPherson Paradox is under review.

The five northern stations are still running hot but the overall cooling has been enough to drop the mini-Globe into the “orange zone”, between the Paris Target and Two degrees above Pre-industrial.

Bird 78 · Wren

13_20160413Wren1_6m

A Masking Effect

We couldn’t be further from a One World Order. Rich and powerful countries impose sanctions on poorer, weaker countries struggling with the effects of a bioweapon that gives people the ‘flu. Countries with a high proportion of narcissist sociopaths project their terrible behaviour onto nations that are, on balance, balanced. Some countries deal sensibly with the psycho-made health challenge, others want the most damage to be done to their people and so do nothing except look busy.

Some countries urge their citizens not to wear face masks. Others encourage the practice. Chris Martenson posted an informative graph today.

20200330Mask1

Interesting that the countries that go masked are having most success flattening their curves – and haven’t been laying waste to the Middle East for the past twenty years or so. For a better image and explanation visit Peak Prosperity. Learn more about masks – and how one European country has embraced the curve flatteners so wholeheartedly that from a zero start most of the inhabitants are now wearing them.

20200330Mask2

Meanwhile, in the benighted UK, police are attempting to shame people who are doing no harm walking in open countryside, whilst airports allow flights in from “epicentre countries” without health-checking incoming passengers. Welcome to the UK. Enjoy your spreading visit.

The Global Dimming Effect

Just Have a Think has addressed the possibility of a temperature spike as a result of reduced industrial activity and travel.

Two weeks ago, my Ten Weather Stations were a bit spikey. Last week, with one extreme exception, they went the other way.

Wk17_MeanIncDecr_10

I noticed this morning that several stations had revised their March data. The changes were both up and down, so there is no obvious attempt to make their locations warmer or colder. And the differences over the month amounted to only a couple of hundredths of a degree. Durham Tees was on a four-day week so I’ve used Newcastle as a temporary proxy for the missing data.

I have added Week 17’s running average Mean temperatures compared to the Pre-Industrial Baseline. The North-South divide is unchanged. I have seen other sources proclaiming the Earth has left the Paris target in the rear-view mirror. Forever?

A Little Bit Warmer

A prediction that the globe may warm by about a degree centigrade over the next few months because of reduced fossil fuel burning is still a reasonable bet. Last week, six of my Ten Stations were cooler than the week before, but by such small amounts that the “mini Globe” warmed by 0.008°C.

Seven of the stations were warmer in Week 16 than the week before. Going against the trend of the meteorological year so far, the southern hemisphere was warmer than the north (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline). The rise was 0.021°C. This may seem insignificant but it is an IPCC year’s worth of extra heat in the projection game.

Wk16_MeanIncDecr_10

Millions of locked down people have other things to worry about but there’s no escaping climate and environmental matters with Greta and Prince Charles catching Covid-19.

The Southern Summer

Last year, my five southern hemisphere stations came within a whisker of going above the Paris Accord target. By week 4 this meteorological year they fell to a running average mean temperature of 0.55°C and bumped along at that level to the end of summer.

SouthSUMMER20cfP-I

The first two relatively warm weeks ensured an overall cooling trend.

SouthSUMMER20cf19DIFF

The northern winter’s somewhat extreme warmth (represented by the five stations) was more than enough keep my “mini-globe” at two degrees centigrade or more above the Pre-Industrial baseline for 9 of the 13 weeks, and above Paris for all but the first week.

GlobeQ1_20cfP-I

Will the 5 southern stations warm enough in the next nine months to reach the IPCC projection of 1.065°C above P-I? This would seem unlikely as Climate Change sceptics have recently been pointing to the extreme winter cold in the northern hemisphere!

“Meanwhile, Europe is et to be hit by a brutal Arctic blast that will cause temperatures to plummet and heavy snow to strike this week…Motorists across large swathes of Britain faced a severe ice risk while driving home the other night after 300 schools were closed. Britain enters Spring this week but you’d be forgiven for thinking that Global Warming has gone on strike, with snow expected to blanket large parts of Britain over the next few weeks. And in places up north, it is expected to be twelve inches deep.”

Vivid stuff, huh? If you want to see pictures, check out Rowan Dean on Sky Australia (start at 4.30). I can’t recall seeing any snow on the Yorkshire coast this winter and have only needed to wear gloves on three of my 180 walks.

Rowan goes on to describe the recent chilling of the United States, going against the grain of my Washington DC temperatures, (ending winter at 1.87 degrees C above Pre-Industrial), and a Weather Underground blog post – February Wraps Up One of Warmest US Winters on Record.

Catching Cold

Rowan Dean at Sky Australia won’t have a bar of Global Warming. There’s nothing cheers him so much as a slew of record cold temperatures.

David DuByne seems to prefer chilliness too and posts some very appealing photos of camels in snowy Arabian deserts.

The Grand Solar Minimum has yet to bite though, and in the last 365 days, there have been more record high temperatures than low (according to NOAA/UCAR).

In my small world of Ten Weather Stations, at the end of Week 12 of the meteorological year, the Northern Hemisphere continues toasty. A cool southern summer has had an impact on the “global” figure – but not enough to send it in to the blue. The Mean Temperature this year (running average-to-date) is 0.77°C warmer than last.

Wk12_cfLastYrTable

The hemisphere “split” is just as stark in the Table showing current Mean Temperature above the Ten Station Pre-Industrial Baseline.

Wk12_cfP-ITable

I guess we can blame the Russians for thwarting the Mini Ice Age.

 

Colder Than I Think

A few days ago a Google algorithm decided I would be interested in a YouTube video that makes a mockery of my Ten Weather Stations project.

Temperatures are Falling across the Globe

The IPCC’s “Pre-Industrial” is a late starter because of the dearth of 19th-century temperature data. Records didn’t really “begin” until around 1880. The IPCC has therefore chosen a baseline period of 1850 to 1900, giving 14 decades since the mid-point (roughly) and 2017. In that time the global mean land temperature is reckoned to have risen by one-degree centigrade. This is a straight line rise of 0.07°C per decade.

NOAA’s own temperature figures for the five years 2015 to 2019 reveal that the global temperature has DECREASED by -0.14°C per decade, a COOLING RATE about three times greater than the previous warming.

The Southern Hemisphere temperature has DECREASED by -0.7 degrees.

The Northern Hemisphere temperature has DECREASED by -0.2 degrees.

Compared to the previous Warming Rate:-

South America has COOLED 8 times faster than the warming rate, the Caribbean Islands 10 times, and North America 28 times.

Watch the video for graphs with trendlines for these and other areas of the globe. Oh, virus stricken “Asia”, pumping out all that blanket making carbon dioxide, is cooling at four tines the previous rate of warming.

“Not wishing to be accused of cherry-picking”, the makers of the video chose the most recent five years to assess temperature changes, “selecting the same range as that selected by NASA”. They used the same method and tool used by NOAA.

I don’t have any objection to any of this but would just point out that if 2015 and 2016 are the warmest years of the five it will be downhill all the way thereafter for the trendlines.

That aside, I seem to have chosen 10 anomalous Weather Stations. After ten weeks of this meteorological year, all five northern hemisphere stations are running temperatures of 2 degrees centigrade above Pre-Industrial or higher. Last year there was just one. After ten weeks last year, three southern hemisphere stations were more than 2 degrees above P-I; this year there are none.

The stations combine to give a global running average of 2.13°C above P-I, which is a Warming Rate 49 times greater than the IPCC projected temperature rise to the end of 2020.

There is an important difference in how I calculate my warming/cooling rates compared to the video makers. The IPCC Paris Accord Projection to 1.5°C in 2040 posits an annual rise from 2017 of 0.217°C per decade, not the 0.07 degrees of the previous fourteen decades. If I used the older/lower figure my rate of global WARMING this year-to-date would be 152 times greater, not 49.

Here is Week 10’s Table of Mean Temperatures above P-I (running averages).

10_TenStationsTable

Update 12 February

The Difference Five Years Make?

Not much at my Ten Stations.

Unlike the wider regions referenced in the YouTube video, five stations showed warming trends in both the 10 and 5-meteorological year runs (2010 to 1019 and 2015 to 2019).

Only one station, Mumbai, cooled over the ten years – but warmed over the last five.

Two stations, Rome and Koltsovo, clearly cooled over five years and warmed over ten, the only stations where the extra five years made a clear difference.

Koltsovo_10yrMean

Koltsovo_5yrMean

Shanghai and Cape Town clearly warmed over ten years but their five-year trendlines appear flat. Siding with the underdog, I colour them blue.

Shanghai_5yrMean