Moving house is supposed to be one of the most stressful life events but I think the world turning upside down, inside out and back to front is the main reason I can’t get back into the old routine. I spend too many hours a day trying to understand what is going on around me.
I noticed this on Church Walk yesterday.
That’s Covid dealt with.
Now for the Climate Emergency. There seems to be agreement that 2011 to 2020 was the warmest decade in the “persistent long-term climate change trend”, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 the three warmest years.
We are almost half-way through the first quarter of the 2021 meteorological year and, if my Ten Stations are to be considered representative of the globe, change is in the air.
I am tracking the running average daily mean temperatures and comparing this year’s figures with the average for the four years 2018 to 2021.
At the end of Week 6 only four stations are warmer than the 4 year average. The 5-station hemispheres and 10-station globe are cooler this year-to-date. Of course, this could change for the warmer over the next 46 weeks. (I have thrown “local” station Durham Tees in for good measure.)
Note the stand-out cold place is currently Koltsovo but the Yekaterinburg district has experienced mean temperatures six degrees centigrade above pre-industrial recently, so when it comes to “warming rates” (averaged over the last four years) it still leads the pack.
An IPCC unit is the amount the mean temperature must rise each year to reach the Climate Change Panel’s projection of 1.5°C above pre-industrial by 2040. That my five southern stations are now contributing to a global cooling is interesting. Maybe there is no need for a Great Reset to address the Climate Crisis.
At the end of Week 6 this year, the 10-station global mean temperature is 0.09°C cooler than the IPCC’s projection made in 2017. This has now reached 1.0677°C above P-I, though Bloomberg suggests Earth burned through the 1.2 degree mark last year.
At the end of meteorological year 2020 all five of the southern hemisphere stations I monitor were cooler than in 2019; Buenos Aires by 0.25°C and Rio de Janeiro by 1.26 degrees. Four of the northern stations were warmer by a large enough margin to raise the Ten Station Globe mean temperature difference by 0.16°C.
This may not seem much, but it is seven times greater than the IPCC’s annual “allowance” if earth’s mean temperature is to steadily climb to the Paris Accord projection of 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial levels by 2040.
Three years have passed since the IPCC suggested that the annual global mean temperature had risen by one degree centigrade since the First Industrial Revolution began. If one accepts a steady rise of 0.0217°C each year to 2040, the Global “target” figure a few days ago was 1.065°C. For the Ten Stations it was 1.47 degrees. By chance, the five southern stations posted 1.465°C above P-I last year. Cooling this year has pushed this down to 0.87 degrees above P-I. The northern five have collectively warmed from 1.24 to 2.07°C above Pre-Industrial.
This results in a ten station warming rate of 19 IPCC units.
Much of the extra heat in the meteorological year just ended was generated in the Arctic. Koltsovo (Yekaterinburg) copped some of it.
NOAAinforms us that 2019 was the second warmest year on record. Yesterday, BBC News said that calendar 2020 was shaping up to be the third warmest year since records began. Perhaps December is going to be extremely cold everywhere. Put several layers of masks on, folks.
It is a while since I updated the running average temperatures of my Ten Weather Stations. There have been countless extreme weather events recently. The usual suspects of heat, fire, flood and ice melt joined by the occasional surprise package, like summer snowfalls in China. But none have done much to alter the trends in my token scraps of the planet.
The five representatives of the northern hemisphere have continued to cool. The southern five have been much cooler this meteorological year than last, but over the last ten weeks their temperatures have started to rise, and may continue to do so until November.
I have simplified the graphs by not naming the 5 stations but in order of warmth in Week 27 (with mean temperatures in degrees Centigrade above the Pre-Industrial baseline) they are Koltsovo (5.52), Shanghai (2.87), Rome (2.40), Mumbai (2.16) and Washington DC (1.39). They combine to trend steadily downwards but are still well above the IPCC’s 2040 Paris Accord projected target.
Wellington is warmest of the southern 5 (1.11), followed by Buenos Aires (0.97), Sydney (0.82), Cape Town (0.3) and Rio de Janeiro (-0.18). Together they are over 0.2°C cooler than the global average in 2017, as determined by the IPCC.
I don’t know why the running average temperature is so different in the two hemispheres this year – and have not seen any explanations online while checking if climate change is still a hoax or not. My Ten Station Globe’s recent experience looks like this:-
The Ten Stations are currently warming at a rate 25 times greater than hoped for by the IPCC. (At the end of this year the temperature above Pre-Industrial is projected to be 1.06°C. Adding 25 “IPCC units” to this gives the 1.61 degrees indicated in the graph above. One unit is the projected annual global average rise of 0.0217°C.)
That Other Hoax
The “inventor” of the PCR Test says it should not be used to detect COVID 19 in the human animal (or paw paw or goat). It seems to be widely accepted that 80% of the pointless tests give “false positives”. So the four members of the family in New Zealand that have triggered the lockdown of Auckland may not have the infamous disease at all. Across the Tasman, Kim Jong Dan is doing terrible things to the population of Victoria. Police have been videoed strangling a young woman and body-slamming her to the payment – for not wearing a face covering.
So, two of the countries least affected by the novel flu are rapidly turning into the most tyrannical. New Zealand is on course to be under martial law by the beginning of October.
Yesterday I chose ten countries to “follow”, just to see if the next lockdown of the UK could be justified by “the figures”. What figures? Number of cases cannot be trusted. Number of COVID 19 deaths reported cannot be trusted. (How many people who haven’t had a test have been sent letters informing them that they are Covid positive?) In truth, there are no reliable data for the disease anywhere.
Although they may have been inflated in various underhand ways, I am running with the reported COVID deaths. Worldometers calculate deaths per million population for every country. It is easy to spot the countries that have been “hit hard”.
I thought I’d calculate the chances of dying from (or with) COVID 19 by simply dividing the number of deaths by the country’s population. Yesterday my Number One country, against which the other nine would be measured, was Australia. Hearing about about the poor Kiwis facing outright tyranny this morning made me add New Zealand to the list. I’m not quite organized yet so the Table below should be treated with caution. It seems to be heading in the right direction – in that the chance of dying from (with) COVID in rank order is the same as Worldometers Deaths per Million list. (The two sets of figures have a family resemblance.)
Note: Not all the populations are the latest “live” figures. The Worldometer “perMil” figures were accessed early this afternoon. I hope to take the temperature of the 11 countries at a set hour each day but the immediate takeaway is that I am at least 150 times more likely to die of/with COVID in the UK than the average New Zealander. Of course, being over 70 I have the regime’s cross-hairs on my heart or forehead. Curious how a country where the chances are 0.0005% of being killed by/with COVID can become the most fascistic nation on earth in a heartbeat.
The UK was unusually warm last week. Half a million of the fed-up locked down were reported to have crowded Bournemouth’s beaches. It was a little cooler in the north-east and at Durham Tees Airport (my “local” weather station) the week ended only 0.08 degrees Centigrade warmer than the week before. I was surprised the differential wasn’t greater, and astonished that Durham Tees, the outsider, beat every one of “the Ten” in the warmth stakes last week.
Given the attention Siberia and the Arctic have been receiving for extraordinary heat, you may wonder at Koltsovo’s 0.36°C drop from its Week 29 Mean. Koltsovo is east of the Urals and considered by some authorities to be part of Russia’s Sibir. Tell that to the folk in Yekaterinburg, twenty minutes by car from Koltsovo Airport. Whatever, while Siberia burned last week, the Urals almost froze. I exaggerate. Koltsovo’s mean temperature for the week was 11.9°C (53.4°F) and Durham Tees 19.2°C (a devilish 66.6°F).
For the Year to Date, the 5 northern stations dropped to 2.63°C above Pre-Industrial by the end of last week. The southern stations continued the gentle warming trend of the last five weeks to reach 0.73°C above P-I. The Ten Station Globe is currently running at 1.68 degrees above P-I, warmer than is comfortable for the Paris Accord people. The Ten Stations warming rate had risen to 52 IPCC units by Week 16 but it has steadily reduced to just 28 units in Week 30. (One unit is the amount the Earth is projected to warm each year by the International Panel on Climate Change, from 2017 to 2040.)
The meteorological year is 21 weeks old. Enough time for a comparison to be made with last year’s temperature data from my Ten Stations.
Five stations in each hemisphere is a tiny sample of the total number reporting, so they are in no way representative of the whole world’s temperature experience. They do, however, combine to tell a story that can question the official climate change narrative.
The northern hemisphere is considerably warmer than it should be relative to the Pre-Industrial baseline. At the end of November 2019, the 5 Stations averaged 1.24°C above P-I. The chart below shows the marked difference this year.
The relative warmth peaked in Week 16 at 127.46 IPCC units. This is massive when you consider the IPCC has projected a single unit rise annually until 2040 sees the Paris Accord’s 1.5°C above P-I reached – if humans fail to tackle the “climate emergency” successfully.
127.46 IPCC units equate to 3.84°C above P-I. The steep decline in five weeks is as welcome as it is surprising, given that reduced industrial activity and transport was expected by some to raise land surface temperatures.
The picture in the southern hemisphere is very different.
Ending last year within a smidgen of 1.5°C above P-I, the south has effectively cooled by almost a degree. It would require a drop of another 23 IPCC units to make the southern hemisphere fall below the Pre-Industrial Baseline, but Rio de Janeiro has done that and Cape Town is currently just 0.04°C above P-I.
Despite the recent relative temperature decline in the north and the seeming stasis in the south the linear trends to the end of the year are up in the north and down in the south, suggesting the North-South divide will be maintained.
From the beginning of Week 6 to the middle of Week 18 the 10 Station “mini Globe” had maintained a temperature over 2°C above P-I. The trend from now to the end of the year is upwards, though it is possible that the cold times are coming.
Flower 15 · Mother-dee
My breakfast reading is currently Man and the Natural World (Keith Thomas) and discovering that Red Campion (Silene dioica) has this disturbing vernacular name sent me along Church Walk this morning. Of little use as a food or medicine, this flower was thought, once upon a time, to kill the parents of any child who picked it. “Popular knowledge” in the Middle Ages bestowed a lot of other names upon it, some of them shared with other quite different flowers. Five are “Robin” names and half an hour after taking this photo I met a fine specimen of Erithacus rubecula in Martin’s Ravine.
Bird 80 · Robin
Ten minutes later I reached the Glen Gardens cliff top and was thrilled to hear a ‘northern nightingale’, one of several birds once familiarly called Peggy. (The others are whitethroat, garden warbler, willow warbler and chiffchaff.) The lovely song was coming from a distant tree, the sea beyond.
It may be lockdown lethargy, or the brain fog many are suffering whilst sheltering in place – I’ve lost my impetus where genealogy and family history are concerned. But I can still juggle happily with numbers for hours on end. Disappointed with the appearance of a graph showing temperature differences this year in the two hemispheres (relative to the Pre-industrial baseline), I sought a whole measure smaller than a degree centigrade or Fahrenheit and found one. I have called it an “IPCC unit”.
The International Panel on Climate Change issued a paper at the time of the Paris Accord that declared the global average temperature had risen one-degree centigrade above Pre-Industrial by 2017. It suggested a further half a degree rise by 2040 – to the 1.5°C limit that should be avoided at all costs.
Assuming an unwavering linear rise, we are looking at a modest-seeming 0.0217°C per annum. (I reckon that to be 0.0391 degrees in Fahrenheit money.)
Creating the graph using IPCC units gives this picture of weekly temperature relative to Pre-Industrial, reported by my Ten Stations over the last thirteen weeks.
I have kept it as simple as possible to make it clear that the northern stations are responsible for all the above-average global warming in this time period and the southern stations for all but a tiny bit of the cooling.
Koltsovo has warmed at over 250 times the rate projected by the IPCC. Rio de Janeiro is the “coolest” of the stations.
Koltsovo has cooled by about 55 IPCC units over the thirteen weeks. That’s about 1.2°C, down from 7.8°C above Pre-Industrial to 6.6 degrees. (Global warming isn’t a hoax in Russia.)
Rio’s average weekly mean temperature over this period was 25.6°C but it cooled about 12 IPCC units, or 0.25°C, from 0.19 to 0.44 degrees BELOW Pre-Industrial.
Shanghai is the northern station that is closely tracking the hemisphere average.
The Ten Station Globe has dropped from 2.09°C above Pre-Industrial in Week 8 to 1.89 degrees in week 20. It is, however, a long drop to a rise of only a single IPCC unit by the end of the meteorological year.
My Ten Weather Stations are giving the Aerosol Masking Effect a hard time. The hypothesis proposes that the decline in activity of 3 billion formerly industrious humans will cause pollution to fall from the skies, clearing the way for King Sol to raise the global temperature. (By as much as one-degree celsius perhaps.)
The Ten Station Globe was 0.065°C cooler last week than the week before and this week sees a further drop. Only Rome and Wellington has provided some counterbalancing warmth. That’s a fall of 0.233°C in the last three weeks. I’ve seen a comment online that the Aerosol Masking Effect is an “irrelevant and exotic idea”. TheMcPherson Paradoxis under review.
The five northern stations are still running hot but the overall cooling has been enough to drop the mini-Globe into the “orange zone”, between the Paris Target and Two degrees above Pre-industrial.
We couldn’t be further from a One World Order. Rich and powerful countries impose sanctions on poorer, weaker countries struggling with the effects of a bioweapon that gives people the ‘flu. Countries with a high proportion of narcissist sociopaths project their terrible behaviour onto nations that are, on balance, balanced. Some countries deal sensibly with the psycho-made health challenge, others want the most damage to be done to their people and so do nothing except look busy.
Some countries urge their citizens not to wear face masks. Others encourage the practice. Chris Martenson posted an informative graph today.
Interesting that the countries that go masked are having most success flattening their curves – and haven’t been laying waste to the Middle East for the past twenty years or so. For a better image and explanation visit Peak Prosperity. Learnmore about masks – and how one European country has embraced the curve flatteners so wholeheartedly that from a zero start most of the inhabitants are now wearing them.
Meanwhile, in the benighted UK, police are attempting to shame people who are doing no harm walking in open countryside, whilst airports allow flights in from “epicentre countries” without health-checking incoming passengers. Welcome to the UK. Enjoy your spreading visit.
The Global Dimming Effect
Just Have a Thinkhas addressed the possibility of a temperature spike as a result of reduced industrial activity and travel.
Two weeks ago, my Ten Weather Stations were a bit spikey. Last week, with one extreme exception, they went the other way.
I noticed this morning that several stations had revised their March data. The changes were both up and down, so there is no obvious attempt to make their locations warmer or colder. And the differences over the month amounted to only a couple of hundredths of a degree. Durham Tees was on a four-day week so I’ve used Newcastle as a temporary proxy for the missing data.
I have added Week 17’s running average Mean temperatures compared to the Pre-Industrial Baseline. The North-South divide is unchanged. I have seen other sources proclaiming the Earth has left the Paris target in the rear-view mirror. Forever?
A prediction that the globe may warm by about a degree centigrade over the next few months because of reduced fossil fuel burning is still a reasonable bet. Last week, six of my Ten Stations were cooler than the week before, but by such small amounts that the “mini Globe” warmed by 0.008°C.
Seven of the stations were warmer in Week 16 than the week before. Going against the trend of the meteorological year so far, the southern hemisphere was warmer than the north (relative to the Pre-Industrial Baseline). The rise was 0.021°C. This may seem insignificant but it is an IPCC year’s worth of extra heat in the projection game.
Millions of locked down people have other things to worry about but there’s no escaping climate and environmental matters with Greta and Prince Charles catching Covid-19.
Last year, my five southern hemisphere stations came within a whisker of going above the Paris Accord target. By week 4 this meteorological year they fell to a running average mean temperature of 0.55°C and bumped along at that level to the end of summer.
The first two relatively warm weeks ensured an overall cooling trend.
The northern winter’s somewhat extreme warmth (represented by the five stations) was more than enough keep my “mini-globe” at two degrees centigrade or more above the Pre-Industrial baseline for 9 of the 13 weeks, and above Paris for all but the first week.
Will the 5 southern stations warm enough in the next nine months to reach the IPCC projection of 1.065°C above P-I? This would seem unlikely as Climate Change sceptics have recently been pointing to the extreme winter cold in the northern hemisphere!
“Meanwhile, Europe is et to be hit by a brutal Arctic blast that will cause temperatures to plummet and heavy snow to strike this week…Motorists across large swathes of Britain faced a severe ice risk while driving home the other night after 300 schools were closed. Britain enters Spring this week but you’d be forgiven for thinking that Global Warming has gone on strike, with snow expected to blanket large parts of Britain over the next few weeks. And in places up north, it is expected to be twelve inches deep.”
Vivid stuff, huh? If you want to see pictures, check out Rowan Dean on Sky Australia (start at 4.30). I can’t recall seeing any snow on the Yorkshire coast this winter and have only needed to wear gloves on three of my 180 walks.
Rowan goes on to describe the recent chilling of the United States, going against the grain of my Washington DC temperatures, (ending winter at 1.87 degrees C above Pre-Industrial), and a Weather Underground blog post – February Wraps Up One of Warmest US Winters on Record.