Target

The UK’s Met Office has just released its decadal forecast for global weather. Over the first five years of the 2020s, the global annual average temperature is expected to be between 1.15°C and 1.46°C “above pre-industrial conditions”. There is a 10% chance of one of the years exceeding the Paris Accord target of 1.5°C above P-I.

The Met Office appears to be in step with the IPCC, accepting an 1850 start to industrial conditions and a minimum global average at the end of this year of 1.06°C. This figure, I think, is derived from the IPCC projection of a rise of global average temperature from one degree above pre-industrial in 2017 to 1.5°C in 2040, a straight line rise of 0.0217 degrees per annum.

If the Met Office is right and 1.5 is reached by 2024, the one chance in 10 odds that subsequent years will be as warm or warmer will shorten. How long will it be before every year has an average temperature “above Paris”? Well before 2040, possibly.

At the end of Week 9 this Meteorological Year, my five Northern weather Stations are running at 3.59°C above Pre-industrial. (Least warm is Rome at 1.99 and warmest Koltsovo at 7.52.)

The five Southern stations are much cooler. Rio de Janeiro is now 0.09°C BELOW Pre-industrial. Sydney’s running average increased from 1.21 to 1.52°C in the last 7 days. It is the only southern station in the “orange zone” (above Paris). The five together average 0.57°C above Pre-industrial, giving a 10 station global average of 2.08°C above P-I. This is a rate of warming for the year-to-date that is 47 times the IPCC projection. (The math is simple. The expected IPCC temperature at the end of the year is 1.0652 above P-I. Take this away from 2.08 and divide the result by 0.0217.)

I am quite taken by the difference between the hemispheres this year. Last year the South warmed more than the North.

9_WarmerDays2020

The North is getting a bit warmer and the South a little cooler. The 10-station Globe Warmer Days percentage is currently 52, amusingly the proportion of Brits that voted for Brexit in 2016.

Getting Warmer

Today’s Press Release from the Met Office, which received a few seconds of attention on BBC radio news programs this morning, couldn’t have been better timed for Today’s Image.

The difference eight years make! Here’s Filey seafront today –

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

How the trees have grown! As for the risen temperature, a decade is not nearly long enough to bring “climate change” into play. You need 30 years of weather data, at least, before hazarding observations about our atmospheric future.

In 2010 there wasn’t a Weather Underground PWS (Private Weather Station) in Filey to consult, but on the morning of 26 November 2010 the temperature in Whitby, thirty miles away, fell to -0.3°C. Today in the same place the minimum reached overnight was 5.28°C. Such differences on the same day of the year from one year to another, or on different days in the same month, are not unusual and are, obviously, survivable. Cold snaps and heatwaves often last only a few days here in the UK. What the Met Office doesn’t say in its Press Release is that, if summer temperatures here do rise by 5.4°C by 2070, and winter temperatures by 4.2°C, and stay so high for weeks on end, there may not be many humans around to “enjoy” them.

In the 20th century, the global temperature rose by 0.7 to 0.9°C, according to the climate.gov website. That rate has doubled in the last 40 years. So in 50 more years, add 0.9°C more. This seems rather conservative, and the UK Met Office appears to agree. On YouTube, Dahr Jamail explains the timid projections of the IPCC in 14 uncomfortable minutes.