Feeling Peaky

I don’t listen to the regime’s daily virus briefings but I gather Boris Johnson declared today that the UK is past the peak (of daily deaths) and on a downward slope (of new Covid cases). The lower orders must, however, continue to incarcerate themselves to protect the Health Service and save lives. An early release could occasion a second wave of infection. Only one more wave?

Landscapes 114 & 115 · Church Ravine

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Looking south to Queen Street.

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Looking north to the Country Park.

Flatten the Curve

With the UK regime’s head honcho and his Minister of Health testing positive for Covid-19 today, and the Chief Medical Officer isolating himself with symptoms, the next few weeks may rise to another level of stupid. It appears from this afternoon’s briefing that other leading regime policymakers are not going to be tested for the virus because they don’t have symptoms of the disease. Wow. Asymptomatic super spreaders at the heart of what passes for government. What could possibly go wrong?

We, the bemused sheeple of the UK, are being told we are “two weeks behind Italy”. Across the Pond, the Great Leader expects to celebrate Easter and deliverance from the plague.

I am not double-checking the data I’m about to present. It is very obvious that accurate numbers for Covid-19 infections and deaths don’t exist anywhere. So there is no point putting in extra effort to make sure I haven’t made errors graphing bogus data. But suspect figures hastily gathered might still paint a useful picture.

I have taken predicted totals for infections and deaths from the Andology Prediction Tool, with countries given the same R0 (2.5), Mortality Rate (2%) and doubling time (7 days). For the first three or four months, all countries have the same weekly totals, until population totals diverge. These later differences don’t come into play here. Reported infections and deaths have been taken from Worldometers.

Italy’s Patient Zero surfaced on 29 January; the UK’s two days later. (You may find different first case dates given in other sources but I’m running with these.) The countries are not too far apart in population size: Italy 60.36 million, UK 67.74.

The first Covid-19 death was reported in Italy on 22 February and the UK’s first thirteen days later on 5 March. The graph below starts on the day Italy recorded its tenth death, 25 February.

ITALYvUK_CovDeaths

I’ve chosen to give the graph a log scale, so rather than flattening a curve please imagine bending a straight line downwards, as much as possible. The dotted prediction lines are slightly wavy but straight enough to indicate the exponential rise in deaths.

Although they crossed the infection start line almost together, Italy’s terrible death toll began quickly and rose at a greater than exponential rate. But its lockdown policy appears to be effective, bending the line in the last few days.

I’m not sure why the UK was slow to lose people, compared to Italy. The regime didn’t have any control from the outset. Recent reports have proclaimed that the “death rate” in the UK is greater than in Italy and this graph offers confirmation. Deaths are doubling every three or four days in the UK now. In the notional two weeks that we are behind Italy – that is four doublings. Yesterday, Italy’s death total was 8,215. The indications are that by Good Friday, the UK will have lost over 9,000 citizens to Covid-19. How much will the curve have been flattened, or the exponential line bent? Each one of us “ordinary folk” can make a useful contribution towards the recovery. We shouldn’t expect help, only hindrance, from those who rule over us. Amazing Polly explains.

Covid-19 Will Change the World

I hope to get back to some genealogy soon but most days now I wonder, what’s the point? This new disease threatens to take the lives of millions, break down the social order in many countries, collapse the world economy and start a global war. The psychopaths that rule us should have been more careful about what they wished for.

Adjusting my Andology Prediction spreadsheet to fit the official Chinese government infection and death figures makes no sense. “Real-world” numbers are probably at least ten times higher. One source suggests 50,000 may have succumbed to the disease already. At the 8th of February I have 216,000 infected and 37,000 dead. An Infection Rate (R0) of 4.00 and Mortality Rate of 15% will see Covid-19 burn out in the first week of April after infecting a  billion Chinese and killing 277 million. What price communism, civilized society and the economy surviving this?

My UK spreadsheet predicts 10 infections in three days time – and one death. So far, nobody has died. The disease will infect 84% of the population and claim lives until the middle of July, killing almost ten million in total. Given that there have been just eight people infected so far, these stats are unbelievable.

Passengers on the Plague Ship in Hong Kong have been freed but those in Yokohama are still quarantined. Only those on Diamond Princess testing positive for the virus have been taken ashore. None of those infected has died so far but there are now 135 of them. Yesterday my spreadsheet had 75 infected and three deaths. If the passengers and crew remain on the ship, 95% may become infected and 400 could lose their lives. Their ordeal is predicted to end in the middle of March.

The only value of this prediction tool is to give an idea of how bad things might become. To gain an understanding of how things are, I suggest a daily dose of Doctor John’s evidence-based elixir.

Betrayal

You wouldn’t know it from MSM coverage but most of the yellow vest protests in France are peaceful. Paris is the biggest and most frightening anomaly. There is evidence that much of the citizen violence, destruction and looting is done by agents provocateurs. Rural France seems to prefer peaceful civil disobedience and the police don’t intervene.

Meanwhile, in London yesterday, the “ordinary people” asking for the Brexit they voted for were quiet and dignified. None were arrested. The police didn’t have quite such an easy time with Antifa. Although very one-sided, this video gives some sort of “balance”.

A Note from Canary

Nine days of December and in my ten chosen cities 51% of days have been warmer than the ten year average for the month. However, the cold days have been more extreme than the warm in both the northern and southern hemispheres. In the North the daily maximum temperatures are, overall,  .6°F lower than the 2008 to 2017 average for December 1st to 9th. In the South, they are 1.5°F lower. Anomalously warmest city – Rome (winter); coldest – Buenos Aires (summer).

Plenty of time for change this month – but Grand Solar Minimum has its beak in front at the moment. Graphs and histograms to follow early next month.

Security

I watched some of the United Nations Security Council Meeting last night. I was late arriving at the live stream, so didn’t see the Russian opening statement. I was, though, in good time to hang my head in shame when the ambassador for the UK spoke. The French representative impressed me, however, even though he was in clear support of the pusillanimous Brits. Here is some of what he said:-

President, the prohibition on the use of chemical weapons is the very bedrock of the non-proliferation regime upon which our collective security system is founded. In that understanding, the rampant and unrestrained re-emergence in the Middle East, Asia and now in Europe of these vile weapons cannot be tolerated. We established a taboo on the rise of chemical weapons together and that taboo, or that ban has been broken, including in Salisbury. This speaks as to why it is urgent that we re-affirm and build upon the absolute prohibition on the use of chemical weapons. The trivialization of the use of chemical weapons would mark the victory of barbarity over civilization and would mark a terrible setback for international order. That is why we cannot sit idly by when they are used and all the more so when, and let us not deceive ourselves, a trivialisation of chemical weapons will only open the door for the spectre of chemical terrorism which we all fear so rightly, as we would all pay the price for said chemical terrorism. This is why France will never allow those who develop or use toxic agents to enjoy impunity. We reiterate our full support for the institutions and framework, in particular, the OPCW. France will remain fully committed to supporting the OPCW’s activities with all the means at our disposal.

Well said, mon brave. I hope France will honour your sentiments.

PortonDown

Source via Seemorerocks.

A day after Mr. Aitkenhead, Chief Executive at Porton Down, said they couldn’t say where the nerve agent had been manufactured, the BBC morning news carried the claim that the UK Government could name the damned spot in Russia. Hmm. But what if the picture above is an accurate signpost to “the truth”. What if the UK poodle, egged on by its master, tried to whack the Skripals with a chemical weapon and there’s the proof? What will the French, and the rest of the civilized world, do then?

Five years ago The Telegraph carried a report about British interests in exporting ingredients for chemical weapons to, of all places, Syria.

More recently –

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Source.

The BBC has been preparing UK citizens for a while – President Assad, with Russian assistance, is going to launch a chemical attack on his own people soon.

American forces are, it seems, going to stay illegally in Syria for a while longer, presumably so that they can support their terrorist proxy fighters to carry out the heinous ‘false flag’ event. One can only hope that the Salisbury fiasco will so totally unravel that the planned Syria attack will be shelved – because no human being of sound mind will “buy it”.

I think it is highly likely that MI5/MI6 tried to bump off the Skripals, perhaps using assassins from another EU country. The UK Government, via its public propaganda machine (the BBC), is so obviously culpable of spreading disinformation. The Tories have a motive – to cry “insecurity” and use fear to postpone Brexit or ditch it altogether. Russia couldn’t benefit in any way from the crime.

There is no other plausible explanation – the UK did it. Shame on the British ruling class.

Life is Sweet

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Well, it would be if it were not for those awful Russians, with their aggressive actions, disregard for international law and disrespect for our western values. Such as the recognition of innocence until guilt is proven.

Oh, my bad. I think I have just described two countries that have a special relationship.

The head of the United Kingdom regime has had nothing sensible to say for months but I listened to a rant this morning by a citizen of the more dangerous partner in the aforementioned relationship. I recommend it to you. Take it away, Lionel.

CNN’s program Sixty Minutes served up porn actress Stormy Daniels recently. I’m not sure what the tv company was hoping to achieve, other than higher than normal ratings. Russian television also offers Sixty Minutes to its people, and they have just been treated to an explanation of the Skripal poisoning incident.  Maria Vladimirovna Zakharova, from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, demonstrates that there is little disagreement between Russia and the Lionel Nation.

One can only hope that the “leaders”  of the USA and the UK find a cure for their Russophobia soon. We don’t want them, in their fevered state, to do something stupid – like invade Syria or Iran. Do we?