Third Wave

Covid case numbers are rising in Europe and Brits are being primed to expect a surge of infections here too, though maybe not for five or six months. Case numbers should not be confused with infections, and deaths from the disease in France, Germany and the UK have fallen since January. France looks the most likely of the three to be inundated first by a Third Wave of Covid-19 – or perhaps a First Wave of the Billy Goats-promised “next pandemic”.

Death totals are taken from Worldometer and Expected Deaths are Annual Totals derived from World Bank 2018 figures evenly distributed. I will look for more accurate First Quarter data and perhaps offer a more trustworthy graph later. Not that there is anything reliable about published Covid-19 data anyway. If you want to do your own Italian Job on this graph, divide the  vertical axis figures by eight to get a more accurate picture. (Roughly 90 per cent of the UK bars above are arguably “Lockdown Deaths”. So, in Week 3, about 1,000 people were killed by Sars-CoV-2 and 7,500 by regime policies.)

Sea 35 · Filey Brigg Dawn

Way to Go?

Fifty-four weeks have elapsed since the first death from Covid-19 was recorded in the UK. Since 5 March 2020 a further 125,689 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for the disease. Positivity determined by the base metal standard PCR test is meaningless, making any chart or graph fabricated from Covid data suspect. But, heigh-ho…

The Covid Death figures are taken from Worldometer. The UK Office of National Statistics have offered a provisional figure of 604,045 deaths from all causes for 2020. This is 23,927 fewer than the estimate on which I based some of my Covid charts last year. I divided that larger total into equal daily amounts. I have now taken the weekly ONS figures for deaths by influenza (including Covid) and pneumonia and and applied their “proportions” to the AllCauses to reflect seasonality somwhat.

The chart above shows the UK’s double hump Second Wave lasting twice as long as the First – from around Day 280 last year to Day 76 this year (yesterday).

The curve of the Second Wave may or may not be about to flatten. Whatever, it is going to begin mixing its green colour with last year’s yellow by the weekend.

It is anyone’s guess what this chart will look like in 180 days time.

Warmer weather is coming, so instances of respiratory illness are going to look like Days 220 to 250 last year.

And we now have “the vaccines”. Will these make Covid-19 deaths a thing of the past? All easily accessed reports from the Greatest Vaccinated Nation on Earth point to a rosy future. But “flat-lining” can have two very different meanings when applied to graphs and diseased human beings in hospitals.

There are always more than two sides to a story.

Abstract 72 · A Line in the Sand

Filey Sands

Four Second Waves

For what they are worth. “With Covid” weekly deaths sourced at Worldometer. I have divided 2018 deaths from all causes (The World Bank)by 52, paying no heed to seasonal fluctuations. As the four countries are assessed in the same way, the “patterns” revealed have some validity. (When the actual 2020 deaths from all causes are reported, I will perhaps create a second set of charts to give a more accurate picture.)

The French second wave is almost as old as the first but still has a way to go before Covid related deaths fall below 2% of expected deaths.

The UK second wave began to rise again in Week 13 – a trend that one would expect if our old friend the winter flu was still around.

Second waves began later in Germany and Sweden and both countries have recently completed their tenth week.

The y-axis is the same for all four charts. Germany’s second wave is the most frightening at first glance but its peak (so far) is the lowest of the quartet. Sweden’s second wave appears to be running out of energy but it could “uptick” UK-fashion.

It should be borne in mind that deaths from all causes in most countries are at or below what would be expected in an average year. Fewer people are dying from the big killers because, for example, heart attack and pneumonia deaths have been routinely and dishonestly ascribed to Covid-19. Hardly anyone has died from old flu since the new kid showed up. In the UK,  the number of under sixties without other “health issues” who succumbed to “the rona” is said to be less than four hundred.. Which is why the psychos have invoked mutant Covid strains in the UK and South Africa. When final tallies are made for 2020 I expect more people will have died from lock down, mask-wearing and vaccines than Covid-19.

For what? All will be revealed next year, probably.

Measure of Man 49 · Work & Leisure

A Lufthansa Cargo jet flying over a West Avenue drive-in cinema this afternoon. Trade goods in a McDonnell Douglas MD-11F heading to Chicago from Frankfurt. I don’t know what the film is. (The Greatest Showman was advertised but I’m sure I caught a glimpse of Colin Firth.)

Taking It in the Arm

Plucky Brits lined up today to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination against Covid-19 disease. It won’t make recipients immune, it won’t prevent them being asymptomatic spreaders. It will reduce their suffering if they become infected and some may not die from the disease. Time will tell how many will be killed by this or any other Covid vaccine.

The Sputnik 5 vaccine was “rushed out to wary Russians” three days ago. The BBC hasn’t forgiven Vladimir Vladimirovich for not poisoning the Skripals beyond all doubt, (it was just “highly likely”), and one of its journalists reporting from Moscow on Sunday couldn’t help getting a few digs in. She signed off saying that infections in Russia were “rising rapidly”. This may be true but it is dead people who matter when talking about Covid – and Russia has a long way to go to catch up with UK-level fatalities.

The UK “Second Wave” of Covid Deaths began (I decided) on 22 September but the rising number of fatalities took a while to impact the curve. Russia’s rise in Covid fatalities as a percentage of deaths from All Causes is noticeable but not pronounced.

A histogram of the UK’s two Covid Waves shows that the Second appears to have peaked in Week 10. In past “normal years”, the old flu would be preparing to make an entrance now, so it will be interesting to see if its victims are ascribed to the new kid on the block, presenting us with a Third Covid Wave that carries us beyond the 17 week duration of the First.

What difference will the vaccines make?

Measure of Man 48 · Country Park

The Flu Has Flown

A couple of days ago the Surgery phoned to invite me in for a flu jab. I passed. Today I learned that the injection is being offered for free to the over fifties this winter. I wonder why. There doesn’t seem to be much of the old normal flu about these days.

I may be misreading this graph but it appears that the three flu types that usually afflict the UK all but disappeared in Week 17 of 2020. Nothing discernible in Week 46 – but in Week 47 last year there were a thousand specimens (whatever this means).

But hey, for those who have survived half a century – it’s free, so why not get a jab for nothing?

I received a letter today from the sadly diminished National Health Service, urging me to get the flu jab because I was “vulnerable”. I was also asked to save the NHS money by scanning the letter’s QR code on my mobile so that they could contact me digitally in future. I don’t have a mobile phone so I wonder how many “Play Big Pharma Roulette” letters the postman will bring. Whenever…

Bird 90 · Robin

Martin’s Ravine

Waves of Covid

There is a lot going on in the world that we should be frightened about but the mysterious flu called Covid-19 is not one of them. Julia Hartley-Brewer and Professor Anthony Brookes chatted about it today on talkRADIO (11 minutes).

Here are a couple of graphs  based on Covid death totals available on Worldometer. Waves start when deaths attributed to Covid-19 reach 2% of expected daily deaths from all causes. The UK’s First Wave lasted 118 days  and Sweden took about 40 days longer to fall back below 2%.

The Second Wave in the UK has a way to go before it is worse than the First. (The ongoing rise has the look and feel of old normal seasonality about it.) The value of common sense and not locking a country down is illustrated by the Swedish experience.

Sunrise 45 · Filey Beacon

Feeling Peaky

I don’t listen to the regime’s daily virus briefings but I gather Boris Johnson declared today that the UK is past the peak (of daily deaths) and on a downward slope (of new Covid cases). The lower orders must, however, continue to incarcerate themselves to protect the Health Service and save lives. An early release could occasion a second wave of infection. Only one more wave?

Landscapes 114 & 115 · Church Ravine

30_20200430ChurchRavine2_8m

Looking south to Queen Street.

30_20200430ChurchRavine3_7m

Looking north to the Country Park.

Flatten the Curve

With the UK regime’s head honcho and his Minister of Health testing positive for Covid-19 today, and the Chief Medical Officer isolating himself with symptoms, the next few weeks may rise to another level of stupid. It appears from this afternoon’s briefing that other leading regime policymakers are not going to be tested for the virus because they don’t have symptoms of the disease. Wow. Asymptomatic super spreaders at the heart of what passes for government. What could possibly go wrong?

We, the bemused sheeple of the UK, are being told we are “two weeks behind Italy”. Across the Pond, the Great Leader expects to celebrate Easter and deliverance from the plague.

I am not double-checking the data I’m about to present. It is very obvious that accurate numbers for Covid-19 infections and deaths don’t exist anywhere. So there is no point putting in extra effort to make sure I haven’t made errors graphing bogus data. But suspect figures hastily gathered might still paint a useful picture.

I have taken predicted totals for infections and deaths from the Andology Prediction Tool, with countries given the same R0 (2.5), Mortality Rate (2%) and doubling time (7 days). For the first three or four months, all countries have the same weekly totals, until population totals diverge. These later differences don’t come into play here. Reported infections and deaths have been taken from Worldometers.

Italy’s Patient Zero surfaced on 29 January; the UK’s two days later. (You may find different first case dates given in other sources but I’m running with these.) The countries are not too far apart in population size: Italy 60.36 million, UK 67.74.

The first Covid-19 death was reported in Italy on 22 February and the UK’s first thirteen days later on 5 March. The graph below starts on the day Italy recorded its tenth death, 25 February.

ITALYvUK_CovDeaths

I’ve chosen to give the graph a log scale, so rather than flattening a curve please imagine bending a straight line downwards, as much as possible. The dotted prediction lines are slightly wavy but straight enough to indicate the exponential rise in deaths.

Although they crossed the infection start line almost together, Italy’s terrible death toll began quickly and rose at a greater than exponential rate. But its lockdown policy appears to be effective, bending the line in the last few days.

I’m not sure why the UK was slow to lose people, compared to Italy. The regime didn’t have any control from the outset. Recent reports have proclaimed that the “death rate” in the UK is greater than in Italy and this graph offers confirmation. Deaths are doubling every three or four days in the UK now. In the notional two weeks that we are behind Italy – that is four doublings. Yesterday, Italy’s death total was 8,215. The indications are that by Good Friday, the UK will have lost over 9,000 citizens to Covid-19. How much will the curve have been flattened, or the exponential line bent? Each one of us “ordinary folk” can make a useful contribution towards the recovery. We shouldn’t expect help, only hindrance, from those who rule over us. Amazing Polly explains.

Covid-19 Will Change the World

I hope to get back to some genealogy soon but most days now I wonder, what’s the point? This new disease threatens to take the lives of millions, break down the social order in many countries, collapse the world economy and start a global war. The psychopaths that rule us should have been more careful about what they wished for.

Adjusting my Andology Prediction spreadsheet to fit the official Chinese government infection and death figures makes no sense. “Real-world” numbers are probably at least ten times higher. One source suggests 50,000 may have succumbed to the disease already. At the 8th of February I have 216,000 infected and 37,000 dead. An Infection Rate (R0) of 4.00 and Mortality Rate of 15% will see Covid-19 burn out in the first week of April after infecting a  billion Chinese and killing 277 million. What price communism, civilized society and the economy surviving this?

My UK spreadsheet predicts 10 infections in three days time – and one death. So far, nobody has died. The disease will infect 84% of the population and claim lives until the middle of July, killing almost ten million in total. Given that there have been just eight people infected so far, these stats are unbelievable.

Passengers on the Plague Ship in Hong Kong have been freed but those in Yokohama are still quarantined. Only those on Diamond Princess testing positive for the virus have been taken ashore. None of those infected has died so far but there are now 135 of them. Yesterday my spreadsheet had 75 infected and three deaths. If the passengers and crew remain on the ship, 95% may become infected and 400 could lose their lives. Their ordeal is predicted to end in the middle of March.

The only value of this prediction tool is to give an idea of how bad things might become. To gain an understanding of how things are, I suggest a daily dose of Doctor John’s evidence-based elixir.

Betrayal

You wouldn’t know it from MSM coverage but most of the yellow vest protests in France are peaceful. Paris is the biggest and most frightening anomaly. There is evidence that much of the citizen violence, destruction and looting is done by agents provocateurs. Rural France seems to prefer peaceful civil disobedience and the police don’t intervene.

Meanwhile, in London yesterday, the “ordinary people” asking for the Brexit they voted for were quiet and dignified. None were arrested. The police didn’t have quite such an easy time with Antifa. Although very one-sided, this video gives some sort of “balance”.

A Note from Canary

Nine days of December and in my ten chosen cities 51% of days have been warmer than the ten year average for the month. However, the cold days have been more extreme than the warm in both the northern and southern hemispheres. In the North the daily maximum temperatures are, overall,  .6°F lower than the 2008 to 2017 average for December 1st to 9th. In the South, they are 1.5°F lower. Anomalously warmest city – Rome (winter); coldest – Buenos Aires (summer).

Plenty of time for change this month – but Grand Solar Minimum has its beak in front at the moment. Graphs and histograms to follow early next month.