Safe and Effective

I haven’t looked at UK Covid deaths since the beginning of June and stopped listening to BBC News and its daily death cult announcements about the same time. Updating the spreadsheet comparing this year with 2020 offered a surprise.

Here is summer –

We didn’t have ”vaccines” last year, crowds couldn’t attend major sporting events, and perhaps there were fewer demonstrations against the tyranny. Information coming out of the Jabber’s Paradise (Israel) indicates that the “vaccines” don’t work as advertised. The chart above seems to indicate that. But would the unseasonal rise in deaths this year have been greater without the gene therapies? Or is the mysterious Delta Variant being superspread by the “vaccinated”? (Mysterious because there isn’t a test for the Delta Variant, and yet we are told it is now responsible for the majority of “cases”.)

September is the last month of the respiratory illness year. Things are not looking good for the UK in late autumn and winter. Lockdowns are a curse, bringing more misery, illness and death than the disease – but expect restrictions on liberty to be re-imposed. Soonish.

On 12 August the UK Yellow Card System had logged 1,151,768 adverse reactions and 1,596 deaths following “vaccination” against Covid 19. Unsafe then, but intentionally so it seems. Otherwise the “roll out” would have been halted long ago.

Mark of Man 71 · Agnus Dei

St Leonard’s, Speeton

The sins of this world need to be taken away. Soonish.

Death by Vaccine

The UK regulator has approved the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in children aged 12-15, saying it is safe and effective in this age group and the benefits outweigh any risks.

BBC

Ah, effective. We have been told the jabs are 90% or more effective – calculated from first trial data. But this is the flattering Relative Risk Reduction figure (RRR). The manufacturers don’t want you to know the Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR). In an article published in The Lancet this figure was 1.3% for AstraZeneca-Oxford, 1.2% for Moderna-NIH and 0.84% for Pfizer-BioNTech. I doubt millions would have clamoured for a shot in the arm if these numbers had been the ones promoted.

Another metric that is derived from the ARR calculations is the “number needed to vaccinate” (NNV) in the whole population.  For Pfizer-BioNTech this comes out at 117 people needing to be jabbed to prevent one unhappy encounter with Covid-19. Put another way, 116 people who receive a shot will gain no benefit from it – but will have to take a chance on an adverse reaction, up to and including saying a final farewell to loved ones (if allowed).

Every evening the BBC gives its listeners the day’s Covid numbers for positive PCR tests and deaths within 28 days of a test. I would be interested to hear a breakdown of the death numbers – into the vaxxed and unvaxxed. People do get Covid after being “vaccinated” and they also die. In the latest Yellow Card Report (run date 26/5/2021) the number of deaths associated with the jab is now 1,253. We will probably never know if the jab was the cause of death because it appears that these cases are not being investigated.

Although GPs and Hospitals in the UK should report all instances of adverse vaccine reactions it would undoubtedly affect Big Pharma’s bottom line if they did so. VAERS, the American equivalent to the UK’s Yellow Card, is said to be receiving reports of only one to 10 percent of reactions experienced by recipients of the Covid jabs. Some hospital management boards are forbidding nurses to document reactions. And many nurses and other frontline workers are refusing a mandatory jab, even when threatened with dismissal for so doing.

The UK Column’s presentation of Yellow Card data begins with the run on 7 February, by which time 326 deaths had been linked to AstraZeneca, Pfizer and “Unidentified” vaccines. (Moderna joined the list in mid-April). Yellow Card weeks are not all 7 days long but I have matched its offerings with those of Johns Hopkins Covid-19 deaths in the UK (Worldometer).

The figures are presented below, starting at UK Column’s Week 2 (8 to 14 February).

In Week 15, the split is 38% of deaths associated with the Jab and 62% with Covid-19. Attempts have been made to separate those dying with a positive PCR and no comorbidities The UK Column a while back presented a figure for such deaths from Covid which was, if I recall, about 25% of the total. I don’t know if the under-reporting of Adverse Reactions is as great in the UK as it is in the USA. A very rough calculation of deaths associated with the vaccines in each country as a percentage of total population suggests that reporting in the UK is about 30% higher. With these two indications in mind I have revised the death figures for the last fourteen weeks of available Yellow Card data, doubling the vaccine related deaths and cutting the reported Covid-19 deaths within 28 days of a positive PCR test by 25%.

Although these revisions are modest they raise the current share of vax related deaths to over 60%.

The UK Covid deaths have bottomed out for the summer but will surely rise again in the autumn going into winter. Deaths related to the vaccines are likely to rise too whether the rollout continues “successfully” or not.

The regime and its well-funded propaganda machine are not good with figures. The legacy media last weekend was reporting that “hundreds of people” had gathered in London for a Freedom March. The highest sensible estimate was “a million”. Why not take the average and say 500,000. A great crowd. More of us should just say No.

Insect 32 · Drinker

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

Google Alt-Text: A close-up of a bee.

Euthrix potatoria is an Eggar Moth and named for its larval habit of drinking water droplets on leaves. This one seen on the Cleveland Way (North Cliffs).

An Exceptional April

England hasn’t had such a cold April for almost a hundred years, and I think Scotland was chillier last month than at any time “since records began”. The Met Office serves up sunshine and precipitation figures with UK temperatures here.

Durham Tees weather station posted a month mean a couple of degrees centigrade above the UK April average – mainly because it didn’t share Scotland’s experience. It was 2.7°C colder than the 2009 to 2020 average minimum and so accords with the Met Office’s anomaly map for the four nations. But 2021 wasn’t the coldest April of the thirteen years for which I have data. 2012 was 0.68 degrees cooler. All that sunshine last month had an impact after the frosty early mornings.

April, though, is the fifth month of the meteorological year and the running mean from the first of December, in the guise of Temperature Above Pre-Industrial, reveals Durham Tees is quite a bit warmer in 2021 than the IPCC Paris Accord projection. There has been a 0.2°C fall in the month but at 1.42°C above Pre-Industrial on the 30th, Durham Tees is 0.34 degrees warmer than it should be if the 2040 Paris limit is not to be breached. Those trendlines in the graph above are misleading.

Below is a graph indicating April’s mean temperatures above/below Pre-Industrial from 2009 to 2021. Most years are “grayed out” to avoid confusion. Only the warmest and coolest years at the end of April are highlighted, with 2021 emphasized. The average Temperature above Pre-Industrial for the 13 years (2009 to 2021) is 1.17°C. This is about 0.1 degrees above the IPCC projection indicating a warming rate four times greater than expected. 2021 is currently running about sixteen times warmer than the IPCC’s projection (offered in 2017). Not to worry. The Grand Solar Minimum/Little Ice Age is on the way.

Insect 30 · Sea Slater

Ligia oceanica, Filey Sands

Project Fear Again

Deaths in the UK associated with Covid-19 have fallen in Week 16 of 2021 to 0.64% of Expected Deaths from All Causes. The regime has therefore instructed the BBC to major on India’s experience of a “surge” in Covid cases and deaths. The sudden increase there is alarming, and is made to seem more horrifying by the suggestion that the Indian Government is under-reporting Covid-19 deaths. Twice as many people in India may be dying from the Sars-CoV-2 virus.

In the UK’s Second Wave” the opposite seemed to be true – the regime inflating the figures. Some analysts suggest that the current UK total  of 127,500 should be reduced to around 25,000, with four-fifths of those having a positive Covid test within 28 days having succumbed to one or more of their serious comorbidities – or old age.

For the chart below I have used the Covid deaths reported to Johns Hopkins (bars), doubled India’s weekly figures and halved the UK’s (dotted lines).

Brits have little to fear – except BBC induced fear itself. And perhaps another “draconian” lockdown in the autumn.

Flower 21 · Honesty

Long Lane

Third Wave

Covid case numbers are rising in Europe and Brits are being primed to expect a surge of infections here too, though maybe not for five or six months. Case numbers should not be confused with infections, and deaths from the disease in France, Germany and the UK have fallen since January. France looks the most likely of the three to be inundated first by a Third Wave of Covid-19 – or perhaps a First Wave of the Billy Goats-promised “next pandemic”.

Death totals are taken from Worldometer and Expected Deaths are Annual Totals derived from World Bank 2018 figures evenly distributed. I will look for more accurate First Quarter data and perhaps offer a more trustworthy graph later. Not that there is anything reliable about published Covid-19 data anyway. If you want to do your own Italian Job on this graph, divide the  vertical axis figures by eight to get a more accurate picture. (Roughly 90 per cent of the UK bars above are arguably “Lockdown Deaths”. So, in Week 3, about 1,000 people were killed by Sars-CoV-2 and 7,500 by regime policies.)

Sea 35 · Filey Brigg Dawn

Way to Go?

Fifty-four weeks have elapsed since the first death from Covid-19 was recorded in the UK. Since 5 March 2020 a further 125,689 people have died within 28 days of testing positive for the disease. Positivity determined by the base metal standard PCR test is meaningless, making any chart or graph fabricated from Covid data suspect. But, heigh-ho…

The Covid Death figures are taken from Worldometer. The UK Office of National Statistics have offered a provisional figure of 604,045 deaths from all causes for 2020. This is 23,927 fewer than the estimate on which I based some of my Covid charts last year. I divided that larger total into equal daily amounts. I have now taken the weekly ONS figures for deaths by influenza (including Covid) and pneumonia and and applied their “proportions” to the AllCauses to reflect seasonality somwhat.

The chart above shows the UK’s double hump Second Wave lasting twice as long as the First – from around Day 280 last year to Day 76 this year (yesterday).

The curve of the Second Wave may or may not be about to flatten. Whatever, it is going to begin mixing its green colour with last year’s yellow by the weekend.

It is anyone’s guess what this chart will look like in 180 days time.

Warmer weather is coming, so instances of respiratory illness are going to look like Days 220 to 250 last year.

And we now have “the vaccines”. Will these make Covid-19 deaths a thing of the past? All easily accessed reports from the Greatest Vaccinated Nation on Earth point to a rosy future. But “flat-lining” can have two very different meanings when applied to graphs and diseased human beings in hospitals.

There are always more than two sides to a story.

Abstract 72 · A Line in the Sand

Filey Sands

Four Second Waves

For what they are worth. “With Covid” weekly deaths sourced at Worldometer. I have divided 2018 deaths from all causes (The World Bank)by 52, paying no heed to seasonal fluctuations. As the four countries are assessed in the same way, the “patterns” revealed have some validity. (When the actual 2020 deaths from all causes are reported, I will perhaps create a second set of charts to give a more accurate picture.)

The French second wave is almost as old as the first but still has a way to go before Covid related deaths fall below 2% of expected deaths.

The UK second wave began to rise again in Week 13 – a trend that one would expect if our old friend the winter flu was still around.

Second waves began later in Germany and Sweden and both countries have recently completed their tenth week.

The y-axis is the same for all four charts. Germany’s second wave is the most frightening at first glance but its peak (so far) is the lowest of the quartet. Sweden’s second wave appears to be running out of energy but it could “uptick” UK-fashion.

It should be borne in mind that deaths from all causes in most countries are at or below what would be expected in an average year. Fewer people are dying from the big killers because, for example, heart attack and pneumonia deaths have been routinely and dishonestly ascribed to Covid-19. Hardly anyone has died from old flu since the new kid showed up. In the UK,  the number of under sixties without other “health issues” who succumbed to “the rona” is said to be less than four hundred.. Which is why the psychos have invoked mutant Covid strains in the UK and South Africa. When final tallies are made for 2020 I expect more people will have died from lock down, mask-wearing and vaccines than Covid-19.

For what? All will be revealed next year, probably.

Measure of Man 49 · Work & Leisure

A Lufthansa Cargo jet flying over a West Avenue drive-in cinema this afternoon. Trade goods in a McDonnell Douglas MD-11F heading to Chicago from Frankfurt. I don’t know what the film is. (The Greatest Showman was advertised but I’m sure I caught a glimpse of Colin Firth.)

Taking It in the Arm

Plucky Brits lined up today to receive the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccination against Covid-19 disease. It won’t make recipients immune, it won’t prevent them being asymptomatic spreaders. It will reduce their suffering if they become infected and some may not die from the disease. Time will tell how many will be killed by this or any other Covid vaccine.

The Sputnik 5 vaccine was “rushed out to wary Russians” three days ago. The BBC hasn’t forgiven Vladimir Vladimirovich for not poisoning the Skripals beyond all doubt, (it was just “highly likely”), and one of its journalists reporting from Moscow on Sunday couldn’t help getting a few digs in. She signed off saying that infections in Russia were “rising rapidly”. This may be true but it is dead people who matter when talking about Covid – and Russia has a long way to go to catch up with UK-level fatalities.

The UK “Second Wave” of Covid Deaths began (I decided) on 22 September but the rising number of fatalities took a while to impact the curve. Russia’s rise in Covid fatalities as a percentage of deaths from All Causes is noticeable but not pronounced.

A histogram of the UK’s two Covid Waves shows that the Second appears to have peaked in Week 10. In past “normal years”, the old flu would be preparing to make an entrance now, so it will be interesting to see if its victims are ascribed to the new kid on the block, presenting us with a Third Covid Wave that carries us beyond the 17 week duration of the First.

What difference will the vaccines make?

Measure of Man 48 · Country Park

The Flu Has Flown

A couple of days ago the Surgery phoned to invite me in for a flu jab. I passed. Today I learned that the injection is being offered for free to the over fifties this winter. I wonder why. There doesn’t seem to be much of the old normal flu about these days.

I may be misreading this graph but it appears that the three flu types that usually afflict the UK all but disappeared in Week 17 of 2020. Nothing discernible in Week 46 – but in Week 47 last year there were a thousand specimens (whatever this means).

But hey, for those who have survived half a century – it’s free, so why not get a jab for nothing?

I received a letter today from the sadly diminished National Health Service, urging me to get the flu jab because I was “vulnerable”. I was also asked to save the NHS money by scanning the letter’s QR code on my mobile so that they could contact me digitally in future. I don’t have a mobile phone so I wonder how many “Play Big Pharma Roulette” letters the postman will bring. Whenever…

Bird 90 · Robin

Martin’s Ravine

Waves of Covid

There is a lot going on in the world that we should be frightened about but the mysterious flu called Covid-19 is not one of them. Julia Hartley-Brewer and Professor Anthony Brookes chatted about it today on talkRADIO (11 minutes).

Here are a couple of graphs  based on Covid death totals available on Worldometer. Waves start when deaths attributed to Covid-19 reach 2% of expected daily deaths from all causes. The UK’s First Wave lasted 118 days  and Sweden took about 40 days longer to fall back below 2%.

The Second Wave in the UK has a way to go before it is worse than the First. (The ongoing rise has the look and feel of old normal seasonality about it.) The value of common sense and not locking a country down is illustrated by the Swedish experience.

Sunrise 45 · Filey Beacon